Prince Henry of Prussia: The Rise of U-Boat.
- Thread starter BlondieBC
- Start date
BlondieBC
Banned
Yes, that is pretty much what Zimmermann is thinking, and he hopes to be there by very late 1917 or early 1918.
The offensive in West Africa have been suspended. He would like to have Niger and the rest of Chad, but he is not sending an Army into the desert. And the border with South Africa is about right, and he would look at moving the border more in SA favor for the right compensation. For example, the long border strip of SWA that heads east is negotiable, as would be the line dividing North Rhodesia from South Rhodesia. And he would like to have Uganda. If all this is done, the Pan-Afrikaner dream is fulfilled, as it the MittelAfrika dream, and hopefully, the two countries can live in peace and happiness.
Here is the basic plan. Conquer the Congo. Use the existing rail and the Congo river to start moving men and supplies to East Africa. Attack the British there, if the war last that long. Any other attacks will be more to apply pressure to the Entente than a real desire for the land.
Getting money for older surplus ships after the war is always a good idea.
Mittelafrika will cost a lot of money after all.
If the Dutch are still trying to be neutral after the war, I´d expect them to buy some surplus German and some surplus British ships though. To "balance" their approach.
To get Zanzibar Germany needs to conquer something the British will value higher than Zanzibar and want returned in a peace treaty. So the value of the conquered territory for Germany must be lower than Zanzibar.
Just to be contrarian.
Counter a u-boat threat with air power and destroyers?
In 1917 that means airships because of their long range and endurance. Plus airplanes/seaplanes and destroyers with depth charges (coordinating with the airships).
The British approach of our TL? If an enemy has suitable island bases near the operating area of the u-boats, that enemy can make it very costly to operate there?
Seaplane tenders and experimental aircraft carriers might be mentioned too?
A u-boat submerged loses half her speed. And it can only travel a limited amount of time on battery power (and at slow speed) alone, making it less dangerous to my ships. And maybe easier to find once it has surfaced again.
Plus of course any refueling and resupply has to be done surfaced. Not a good time to be caught. Just imagine the milk cow is in the process of transferring a torpedo...
And being damaged far away from a friendly base would probably mean the loss of the u-boat. Can be done if one disregards the risks.
I´d be surprised if some German (surface) naval officers aren´t already running anti-submarine warfare exercises in the Baltic Sea? Same for other naval powers especially the British.
Concerning the Asian bases.
That is speculation in case victorious Germany decides that it simply needs to return to Asia. Matter of pride and national honor and all that.
In that case trying to minimize the costs would become a discussion point (in Germany itself).
And who knows, depending on who that future enemy might be, some of the bases might survive. The u-boat crews probably would be happy to use them?
Both would be fascinating to see.
The difference to India though:
- German Mittelafrika already has native African commanding officers?
- The native African soldiers after the war will be German citizens with voting rights. Once you give one group the right to vote, in times of political trouble it often becomes easier to simply expand the right to vote. Unthinkable if you never gave any native group the right to vote but once started...
Kind of like, once Germany allows females to vote, what will happen with the wifes of former African soldiers who already are German citizens? Followed by, if a wife can vote, why can´t her father vote?
Both options are still possible though.
And a third option unfortunately. The soldiers and their kids start to form a new ruling class (even after independence). No Indian Gandhi move to independence, more like many our TL African countries after independence. A military coup by some of the former native colonial soldiers.
Quite likely.
You already mentioned possible pogroms against Jews in Eastern Europe. Many of them will probably flee west. But both Germany and Austria-Hungary for domestic reasons can´t accept unlimited Jewish immigration. Offering them either:
- land in (German) Angola and/or
- jobs/opportunities in industrial German Cameroon
might convince quite a few to go there. Especially if after x years there they get German citizenship?
The same is true for the other groups you mentioned.
BlondieBC
Banned
Getting money for older surplus ships after the war is always a good idea.
Mittelafrika will cost a lot of money after all.
If the Dutch are still trying to be neutral after the war, I´d expect them to buy some surplus German and some surplus British ships though. To "balance" their approach.
These are rough number, I was using to figure out if to fight a big North Sea Surface battle this winter.
I am not so sure on the UK selling warships right after the war. I show the UK down to 24 dreadnoughts versus 18 for the Germans, and 8 BC versus 6 for the Germans. I think I have 5 Yorck under construction. So the UK needs 46 dreadnoughts and 16 BC for a total of 60 capital ships. Subtract 37 from this total (24+8+5 being worked up), and the UK needs 23 more ships soon after the war, so likely they will not sell any ships for a while. By the time the UK gets to 1923 and is trying to sell 12" gunned BB, the market will be small for them.
Do you agree?
Germany does not really have any good surface ships to sell, besides maybe a bunch of old torpedo boats. But I do have a lot of U-boats that can't dive so deep. Great for a colonial navy likely to be facing the "B" team, but they will be death traps against the first rate frigates/destroyers the UK will build post war. Now once the accounting trolls of the Reichstag get through with the budget, I am sure German ship yards will have open slips. But after losing a war, I think the UK people will find a will to build a much bigger Navy, and the USA with the profits from WW2 but none of the 22 billion in war costs will likely keep building.
BTW, I sometimes think you are the reincarnated treasurer for the SDP, circa 1910.
True. Zimmerman needs to take the Congo, so the UK has to buy Belgium's freedom with tier 1 colonies.
Just to be contrarian.
Counter a u-boat threat with air power and destroyers?
In 1917 that means airships because of their long range and endurance. Plus airplanes/seaplanes and destroyers with depth charges (coordinating with the airships).
The British approach of our TL? If an enemy has suitable island bases near the operating area of the u-boats, that enemy can make it very costly to operate there?
Seaplane tenders and experimental aircraft carriers might be mentioned too?
I am assuming you are talking about UK countermeasures.
A lot has to do with the initiative. The Germans gained the initiative on the sea within a year, and the UK is reacting to them, not vice versa. Writing the U-boat war has been a struggle, since it is not a few big battles (one per month or less) that ATL likes but 100's of encounters each month. This is why I am summarizing numbers, because I was afraid people would just get loss in the number if I tried to write a bunch of U-boat sink wheat ship 100 miles out of Halifax type entries.
This is from memory, since it has been weeks since I did the calculation.
The UK has a severe problem. IOTL, they had to secure the eastern Med, and the Atlantic north of the Cape Verde Islands. In this ATL, they also have the Atlantic South of the Cape Verde, the Indian Ocean, and occasionally U-boats/AMC go into the Pacific. Now 20 million tons of shipping at 5,000 tons per ship means 4000 ships. Since convoys that do well against U-boats seem to have about 1 warship per 4 freighters, this means they UK needs 1000 long range escorts. The frigates and destroyers are too short range. So we are talking 10-40 predreadnoughts and a few hundred cruisers, and even some submarines. Now I have been reducing the UK losses by 30-40% most months to reflect the % of convoys well protected, but as you can easily see, it is not hard to steer the U-boats/AMC to areas where ships are lightly protected. This is part of the reason I assume that the war material losses are only half of shipping capacity losses. So realistically, the Eastern Med and Atlantic North of Cape Verde well protected, but the U-boats don't need refueling there. In the Indian/Pacific Oceans where most of the damage is being done, the AMC generally stay out of range of major British ports. And with so few ships, there are not many hunter task forces looking for U-boats/AMC. Even a well guarded convoy in the Indian Ocean would likely have 1-2 warships with it.
I may be making it too easy, but I figure it is easy to find an island without wireless with an isolated cove. Come in one evening, reload over the evening, head out sometime the next day.
Now the UK is building lots of Seaplane carriers, but they are assigned to convoy. Remember 4000 merchant ships mean over 100 convoy at sea all the time. The RN is just spread too thin. Then back to the initiative a part, the Germans are also building carriers in Douala, and are planning on using them with the AMC in 1917. Think one carrier, 12 U-boats and 6 AMC working as a task force trying to take on a 40 ship merchant convoy with 1-8 escorts. Also, all AMC by this time have one or more seaplanes, so they are not defenseless, and they would have some light AA. Yes, the HMS Hermes would be a terrible thing to meet, but what are the odds on any given day?
Well, the AMC are mostly staffed with African natives, and the losses are light compared to African land losses, much less Europe. Zimmermann easily has over 100,000 land casualties, and an AMC is a few hundred lost men. A U-boat is under 50. It is hard to see them getting too worked up over it.
Yes, I am assuming both sides are running exercise, but it is only about 18 months into the convoy (i.e. take U-boat seriously) era. Too soon for breakthroughs compared to OTL.
Again, the issue is how to write a TL on naval warfare where the big important battles might involve an average of 2 ships. It is like doing WW2 bombing of Europe where the USA never sends out more than 20 bombers on any given mission. Are you suggesting I need to write up about the training exercises?
Concerning the Asian bases.
That is speculation in case victorious Germany decides that it simply needs to return to Asia. Matter of pride and national honor and all that.
In that case trying to minimize the costs would become a discussion point (in Germany itself).
And who knows, depending on who that future enemy might be, some of the bases might survive. The u-boat crews probably would be happy to use them?
Yes, bases are preferred. I was trying to point out the capability exists to fight even without them. When is an important change from OTL
BlondieBC
Banned
Both would be fascinating to see.
The difference to India though:
- German Mittelafrika already has native African commanding officers?
- The native African soldiers after the war will be German citizens with voting rights. Once you give one group the right to vote, in times of political trouble it often becomes easier to simply expand the right to vote. Unthinkable if you never gave any native group the right to vote but once started...
Kind of like, once Germany allows females to vote, what will happen with the wifes of former African soldiers who already are German citizens? Followed by, if a wife can vote, why can´t her father vote?
Yes, remember they are limited to Major General. Unlike India which basically has a white officer corp, MittelAfrika is majority black officers. The issues will be more related to how to integrate Africa with things like the concept of the German General Staff.
I am pretty sure Gandhi is back in India by now, probably writing about how enlightened MittelAfrika. Once the war is over, I plan to cut the TL back to more about the German Navy and MittelAfrika has become. I think both will be interesting and far different from OTL. I need to take the TL to the point where U-boats are viewed as the dominant ship in German naval doctrine.
Yes, there are lots of integration issues. I am sort of modeling the voting on France. They wanted to make West Africa French, so they said if you were literate in French and a Christian, you were a full French citizen. The issues arose when they started getting Africans in the French parliament wanting things for Africa. The USA found a way to live with non-white citizens voting in conquered lands. European failed, at least when it mattered. The UK could not get past its white colonies voting in the house of commons. I don't know where Germany ends up, because they seem less racist than other Europeans at this time frame.
I can see this happening. I have toyed with the idea of Emperor Zimmermann.
I think Yiddish speaking Jews would qualify under the existing rule as a white who can speak German gets to vote. Basically if you pass the German test, are white, and swear an oath to Germany, you get to vote.
Winning Centrals butterflies the forming of israel, so instead i could imagine that migration to another area would take place. mittel-afrika could be an option, madagascar also.
Well, you already said you want the soldiers to get the right to vote. This is reasonable and should go through with German legislation - if there's on thing you can expect from Germany at the time then it's respect for the military.
Now from there on it becomes tricky. German citizenship law is based on "blood", not "soil", thus the children of Germans should again be German citizens. The children of those black soldiers will therefore most likely be German citizens.
For the first time after the war, internal development of the colonies will largely rely on the military and former members of the military, thus the new citizens will likely be a main source of colonial elites. As a consequence, you'll have a local elite that already has the right to vote in the German parliament. Would they prefer independence over statehood within the German Empire?
Now I don't know where you want to go from here, but I think (some of) the colonies becoming part of Germany proper would be really interesting - and far more likely to lead to a "German century". So here's some suggestions:
- I think that the socialists, Zentrum and the Liberals would see the danger of the new citizens voting conservative. Thus they'd likely counter that by giving the right to vote to other groups outside of the military: the wives of the soldiers, university graduates, administration workers, entrepreneurs. The easiest would be to base it on education, with Zentrum relying on Catholic missionaries and the Socialists building up stipend systems or socialist schools (any engagement in education of natives will be helpful, and domestic policies can be an important motivation). This, in turn, increases the number of German citizens.
- chiefs, local princes and kings could also get citizenship - and maybe certain noble titles - to bind them to the Empire. Of course, their sons need to be educated in Germany and it's only natural to expect them to join military academies thereafter and start a career within the German military far away from home...
- As Germany will need money, an idea is to sell citizenshis: If you're a christian, speak some German, and pay a given amount of taxes, then you can get German citizenship against an annual payment over a given time. This may attract immigrants from India or China which could prove crucial for the economic development of the new German colonies.
- with all the relocation going on in Eastern Europe, it's not that unlikely that Germany actually can find some emmigrants for its colonies. No Germans, but Jews and some European minorities. 1960, Namibia had 600.000 people, so let's assume there were 300.000 in 1920. Several thousand of these will be soldier-citizens, 150.000 immigrants and Southwest could get statehood within a couple of years, long before any independence movement comes up - Schaumburg-Lippe was a state and had merely 50.000 inhabitants. That would then be an example of possible development. It's important to consider that the German federal system actually makes it far easier to integrate oversea colonies than the more centralist systems of France or Britain. After all, statehood guarantees a lot of internal independence - Bavaria and Badenia even had their own army.
- you could implement stipend systems for education of Africans in Europe and exchange of military personnel. That alone will increase the chances for interracial couples and family ties between the colonies and the motherland. The higher the fraction of blacks living in Germany, the higher the acceptance of black politicians in the Reichstag. Not to mention that the Blacks will likely have sizeable Jewish and Polish factions to cooperate with.
Last edited:
all good ideas, i might add that if the germans offer a preferent area for the jews, that might attract a lot immigrants. especially because after a french loss there will very likely be an increase in the nationalist/ultra catholics parties there with the connected increase in anti-semitism, thus producing a stream of french jews looking for a safe place.
There aren't that many French Jews, I guess. At least in comparison to eastern Europe. Russia will be in turmoil after the war. We know what happened to them IOTL, even if there's no communist revolution ITTL (I guess the Germans will take care of that), violence against Jews is likely. The Germans may take some Jews into Memelland, but not all. And I don't see them establishing a Jewish homeland in Eastern Europe (well, doing that on purpose. By all likelihood, prince Henry's new domain will be nothing else...).
i was more thinking of somewhere in mittel-afrika or even madagascar.
I agree they will not take all of them in, but if they offer free transportation & such to M-A that would supply them with the settlers they need.
Not sure if jewish interestgroups were doing things like that in germany at that time, but I could imagine a jewish homeland being suggested by groups like that and it could give them quite some political goodwill (plus that it won't come for free of course, the international jewish community will have do something for it, like political pressure to keep the us neutral)
BlondieBC
Banned
I can't really see Madagascar.
I think immigrants will want infrastructure (road, railroads, dams, sanitation systems), so SWA, Angola, and Kamerun look like the logical places.
Do you have any idea what Eastern Jews would be looking for? What would be most attractive to them? Climate? Cities? etc.
What do you mean by Preferent area? Jewish only state? Jewish Quarter in otherwise Black majority city? Separate Jewish civil code?
And it will be the reaction to the loss in Russia combined with Poles encouraging Jewish migration that will cause the population to move. Just not enough Jews in France for a big migration, and these types will likely view NYC or Berlin or Vienna a much better place to move. Even the Ottoman Empire, outside of Palestine, would look much more attractive. The Ottomans have a good record with the Jewish minorities, they just don't want to deal with mass migration to Palestine, which is a lot different than well educated Jews with skills moving to cities.
I would think the Germans would more want financing for colonial improvements. I have toyed with something like the Ubangi-to-Chari river project, then giving the Jews the newly irrigated land, complete with almost no native population. It sounds like a big project, but when I looked it up, it is basically the same scale as the Hoover dam with water going to California.
Or I have looked at something like a large section of the Angolan highlands or there are even some nice sections of Kamerun that have a nice climate and the population has not yet increased. Or even something like Rwanda might be doable. The real question is what do the leaders of the Zionist movement want most, and what would they give to get it? Africa has plenty of illiterate, poor men with strong backs. Just moving Jewish villages to Africa makes little sense, except to handle refugee overflow. And with the millions of CP men dead, German probably could absorb a few million extra workers quite easily. So could Austria, or even Hungary.
BlondieBC
Banned
It went through with the major peace bill, voting reform stuff a month or two ago.
This is the part I like. A small provision in a war that has wide popular support has huge issues over time. Over time, Germany will face a situation where the majority of the voters don't live in Europe, and the later, a majority are not even white. France started down this path, but then when they started to get too many black members of parliament, people reacted.
Good question. My guess is statehood if it comes with real power. If it is fake power, they want independence.
I think the Indian National Congress would have loved to stay in the British Empire, if Indians were a clear majority of parliament. This is not the same because the population ratios are not so extreme, but at some point, Germany faces the same choices.
I think any CP win leads to a German Century, at least compared to OTL. German would dominate central/eastern Europe. German could easily be a trade language in many Muslim lands. etc.
I am sure rigging the vote in Africa will be a favorite past time of the Reichstag.
Yes, this is the point. Bind the local power structure to the army, which maintains the state. Hopefully, over time, German military titles will take the place of old African titles. Also, Zimmermann had to assure the loyalty of the Army, since once it is over 90% black officers, a coup is always an issue.
Interesting Ideas. I have not gotten that far yet.
1. I would think that one of their priority would also be safety.
2. an area where there could be a sizable minority or even a majority of jews, where they will be able to influence what is happening to them.
i agree that several of the cp countries could accept the refugee jews, the question is, would they want to, in political circles (and also elsewhere) there could be a feeling of 'enough of them'. After all we shouldn't forget that casual anti-semitism was quite normal back then (meaning they were more or less tolerated, not persecuted, but far from really accepted)
Seen that way, you are right.
If the British public insists on the two-navy standard they won´t have anything to sell.
And the surface ships the Germans might sell are really the "old" ones.
Some of the older u-boats- as you said - might be bought by the Dutch.
BTW, I sometimes think you are the reincarnated treasurer for the SDP, circa 1910.
LOL.
Anything that helps to ease budget cuts after the war is fine with me.
As a treasurer
that means that Germany might sell some of its older dreadnoughts to South America and the Ottoman Empire? At bottom prices?To replace the ships ordered in the UK before the war and then not delivered?
Actually I was already a bit in the future.
You know, a future attack (after WW1) on the Dutch East Indies by some undefined enemy. I simply assumed that such an enemy would have observed the u-boat (and AMC) tactics used. And would have tried to develop counter measures to that threat.
Tiny our TL nitpick allowed?
The German citizenship laws were changed years ago. From "blood" to "soil". Just thought I´d mention it once.
You´re of course right about WW1 Germany citizenship laws. The children of German citizens will be German citizens.
(Just like today. And practiced by every country. If one of your parents is a citizen, the child inherits that citizenship. So you practice the "blood" relationship too.)
Umm, just to mention it.
German colonies in Africa - with the exception of South West Africa - already had an obligatory school attendance system including native children.
Including both missionary schools and government schools. Primary, secondary and vocational schools. Plus farming colleges.
The only exception was the "settler" colony South West Africa. As in (this TL former British colony) South Africa the somewhat larger group of German settlers and Dutch Boers in South West Africa didn´t favor education for the natives.
There was even a fight between the Colonial Office in Berlin/Germany and the local authorities in German South West Africa.
Given the scarcity of European women many men married native women. Which the local colonial administration refused to recognize as legal and official. The Colonial Office ordered them to recognize these marriages. Resulting in obedience at first and then passive resistance. Meaning that 1-2 years later the original problem resurfaced.
What a great idea!
Truth to be told I can´t quite see a post-war Germany (1-2 decades or more in the future) accepting an African dominated Reichstag. It might happen but I´m skeptical.
It´s much more likely that some colonies will become independent while others choose to become a state in Germany.
BlondieBC
Banned
Do you think the UK would insist on anything else? Maybe not a literal 2-1, but twice a strong. It will mean a much lower standard of living than OTL, but it is doable. Also, the best I can tell the white colonies were freeloaders. The UK built 60+ capital ships over 20 years, and the colonies built what 2? And the total whites in colonies is at least 50% of the UK. So the colonies face a tough choice. Step up, and pay for their share of RN, or face Japan alone. The only other choice would be to apply to for USA statehood. LOL.
I think the Dutch will buy the UY boats. The probably are only 2 million marks new, and heavily used war ships would probably be under 0.5 million each. Buy extra ships for spare parts, the are basically all of one design, so many interchangeable parts. And the short range is a benefit, it makes the USA and Japan less nervous, and with all those little islands, there is no need for the longer range boats.
LOL.
Anything that helps to ease budget cuts after the war is fine with me.
As a treasurer
To replace the ships ordered in the UK before the war and then not delivered?
Sure, I will sell ships if you authorize new ships. So one new 17" for each 12" I can sell.
I think the more likely part is Germany tries to dominate the international market with new ships. Basically, the UK screwed you over, the Germans honor contracts. There have been no surface battles, so people don't know German ships are tougher.
So being so concerned with German finances, you are OK as I start moving the naval construction to the Imperial Douala Shipyard? And the Army orders its artillery from KruppAfrika?
Actually I was already a bit in the future.
You know, a future attack (after WW1) on the Dutch East Indies by some undefined enemy. I simply assumed that such an enemy would have observed the u-boat (and AMC) tactics used. And would have tried to develop counter measures to that threat.
Yes, there will be counter measures. The question is how much each power funds its Navy. This part will be fun to write. Also, in the AMC is likely a custom built warship in the future.
Definitely.
And in WW1 the Central Powers - especially Germany - were seen as a safe haven for Jews.
Traken-Memelland in Germany and some regions in Austria-Hungary might fit that requirement. (See below.)
I agree that the CP powers won´t accept millions of Jewish immigrants inside their borders. They will accept a limited amount, following domestic political concerns.
Germany however might be willing to transport and subsidize a large number of Jewish refugees to settle in German African colonies (Cameroon, Angola). As long as said refugees are willing to be loyal to Germany. Depending on the future pogroms in Eastern Europe, a colony like Angola might have a really sizable Jewish population? With a sizable minority in German Cameroon maybe too?
You´re quite likely right here.
If Germany is building 5 new Yorck-class battle cruisers (15" guns) right now then Germany can afford to sell some of their older dreadnoughts and battle cruisers after the war ends. Especially all of the old 11" gun dreadnoughts (4 x Nassau class) and battle cruisers (Seydlitz, Moltke, von der Tann).
I´m assuming the Bayern class dreadnoughts are also built?
Some South American countries and the Ottoman Empire ordered ships before the war. They already waited several years for delivery.
With the Uk not releasing the ships, I can see them accepting cheap and slightly used Nassau class dreadnoughts and older German battle cruisers at reduced prices? Given the choice between ships now and ships delivered several years in the future....
And if someone wants to order a new ship in Germany...
o being so concerned with German finances, you are OK as I start moving the naval construction to the Imperial Douala Shipyard? And the Army orders its artillery from KruppAfrika?
You´re forgetting several things, I think.
- There is a difference between building an AMC / destroyer / cruiser and a battleship.
- Producing battleship armor and main guns is a highly specialized job.
- Adding range finders (optics), electricity (Siemens / AEG) and modern engines will be developed in Germany.
Not to mention that both your "Imperial Douala Shipyard" and your "KruppAfrika" are in Africa. Far away and still separated from the motherland by British ships. So no sane German army officer or naval officer would rely on deliveries from German Africa in a war.
BlondieBC
Banned
SMS Sachsen was scrapped.
SMS Wuttenberg was never laid down.
5 Yorck being built, 1 Keel laid, 2 more schedule 1917. 2 in 1919.
Current plans have older ships being moved to Africa command, so if there is a surplus of dreadnoughts, the predreads get scrapped, and the dreadnoughts get moved to Africa. Now I might have some to sell still, but if one starts to think of say 4-8 capital ships needed for all of Africa, then it cuts down on what can be sold.
I see your point. Will look at later.
I like things not working out as planned, and I see the SPD treasurer has walked into the trap. Muhahahahaha. You are overestimating the % of the naval budget spent on new capital ships. A huge % of the budget is sub capital ships, operations (labor), or repairs. All of these are easy to do in Africa. If the SPD complains about naval budget, it is easy to layoff 10,000 Germans and hire 10,000 cheaper Kameruns. And I think you are overestimating how difficult it is to PERMANENTLY move the industry to Africa. It sounds like a lot of tons of steel in a BB, but really, compared to the German economy, it is not that much. And I do have a medium size coal mine and HUGE amounts of Iron ore. And I can buy steel from South Africa or just import the coal. It is not about building components in Germany and shipping to Africa, it is about fully African production. Yes there is a transition period where lots has to be imported, but when looking at building a new factory, it is easy to just change where it is built.
Right now they are basically converting civilian ships and trying to build torpedo boats, but not yet destroyers. The problem will arise with constant budget pressure combined with low cost outsourcing. It will be evolutionary. Here is how I seeing it playing out. It will be easy to build torpedo boats, probably aluminum hulls, since we have limited coal/iron. The next step is to jump up to destroyers (grosstorpedoboot). I have to do a lot of work when I get there to see if aluminum works, but if not, the we use electric arc smelter. While you can't make 16" hardened armor plates, you can say scrap a pre-dreadnought, electric arc the steel, and build a lot of destroyers. One 10,000 ton ships can make 10 of the 1000 ton destroyers. And besides that, who is going to compete on wage rates for scrapping merchant ships? USA, Germany, UK are all way to expensive.
Now also remembered that I am building dry docks for the navy to do repairs. If it is big enough to repair a ship, you can build in the same slot. There is nothing special about a dry dock, it is the cranes and stuff that will be expensive, but a lot of this has already been built, and I figure they already have cranes good enough for light cruisers. Either buy some heavy BB cranes or just move some down from Germany. It give the Navy a nice club, the more the Reichstag complains about cost, the more I move down there.
Now at first, these large dry docks probably start with merchant ships to make money to offset the navy budget, but given time (10-20 years) they can become full shipyards. Think of what South Korean shipyards learned to do over 20 years. A similar step will be refitting/scrapping the pre-dreads. I don't see why this can't be done in Africa instead of Europe. Remember, I have spent over 200 million Reichmarks building infrastructure in Kamerun, and over 100 million on the port/shipyards. I did this both because it made military sense, and it makes for a nice plot line. Much like the USA investing in South Korea after the Korean war.
Now I do think BB production is likely to remain in Germany due to the extremely thick armor plates and very large naval artillery. As is likely the U-boats due to the need for very strong steel in the pressure hull. But there is a huge amount of tonnage that is not BB or SS. So to give TL. Assume 12/31/1917 end date of war.
1918 - Germans pause to design new ships and fix old ships. Begin test refit/scrapping on first predread.
1919 - Begin building new destroyers, torpedo boats, and mine sweepers for Africa. Build test large merchant ship (8000 tons).
1920 - Begin mass work on all predreads. Assuming 2 capital ships per year budget, the first post-Yorck 17" guns ship keel is laid in Germany.
1921 - Begin serious merchant ship production.
1922 - First light cruiser begun in Douala.
By the late 1920's, I could begin work on first capital ship in Africa if budget is bad enough. And there is no reason not to sell the African ships to neutrals. At 25-50% off wholesale, they should sell quite well.
You are trapped in the prewar mindset. The 30 AMC have done 10 times more to win the war than the High Seas Fleet. The problem the whole war has been too many ships in Germany, not enough in Africa. I can easily cut the British Empire in half without every fighting in waters near the British Isles. With a war with the USA, Africa is a good a location to fight towards the Caribbean as Germany. In a war with Japan, it is better.