Plausibility Check: Keeping China out of the Korean War

[Color-Copycat]

I think there was an Indian diplomat who was well aware of China's illicit involvement in the war, and he did try to bring this to America's attention. For some reason or another, the people who got the warning didn't do much to pass it on higher, and as a result, it was a surprise when the Chinese started crossing the Yalu in force.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

China was trying to get the government of India to tell America not to push into North Korea. It had good relations with India at the time but had no diplomatic relations with the US because it did not recognize the PRC. The US government ignored the Chinese message relayed by the Indians because they thought China was bluffing.

One has to understand before the Korean War China was not taken seriously as a military power and its interests were not taken into account during the push into North Korea. It's this disregard of the PRC's capabilities and lack of diplomatic contact which made the miscalculation possible. Thus, keeping China out of the Korean War would require no small amount of policy change in Washington.

 

[pnyckqx]

The China Lobby and the John Birch Society was at least as powerful as the Neo-Cons on the eve of the Iraq War. Also at the time the American intelligence community had very little idea about Chinese Communists. They believed Mao took orders from Moscow, and the Communist world was monolithic without internal rivalries. Under these conditions Truman wasn't going to take the political risk of recognizing the PRC or overtly abandon Chiang.

Slight error. The John Birch Society did not even exist until 1958.

Truman was under pressure from the Republicans about being soft on communism.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Picture MacArthur issuing an order to halt at the 38th parallel; not happening. He is going to keep right on going and both the South Korean and US governments are going to back him in doing so. And when he does the Chinese will march.

Getting a halt at the 38th parallel requires putting someone other than MacArthur in charge, which, given his enormous prestige, is going to be difficult. Perhaps if Mac falls ill or is injured in an accident, maybe, but not otherwise.

Inchon wasn't necessary. The US forces already heavily outnumbered and outgunned KIS's forces. All that would have been required would have been to let the North Koreans wreck themselves and then assume the offensive and then stop at the Parallel. Inchon was a fine example of Douglas MacArthur war: irrelevant showboating to the press.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

Slight error. The John Birch Society did not even exist until 1958.

Truman was under pressure from the Republicans about being soft on communism.

Well they didn't officially exist. But John Birch was killed in China in 1945, and was a minor celebrity of the Right. Incidently the JBS traces its roots to Fred Koch of the Koch Industry fame.