Once in a country: Spain 1983-1990

Kurt_Steiner


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4. Election Day and its aftermath: From 11th to 25th September, 1983

The General Elections of September 1983 featured the usual massive turnout (79.97%. in 1981, 77.4% in 1983) that became a trade mark of the Third Spanish Republic and were marked by the inflation rate. In spite of the efforts to control the rise of the prices, by June 1983 a kilo of potatoes was worth 600 pesetas (1) and an egg 200 pesetas. The peseta had sunk again and a dollar, that in July was worth 475 pesetas, in September was worth 997 pesetas.

Thus, the elections of 1983 were known as the ‘inflation election’. The anti-republican parties of the Left and Right received a considerable wave of support as a result of the dire economic situation and a widespread sense of insecurity. The greatest gains were made by the PCE and AP, specially the latter, which profited from a wave of chauvinistic nationalism: the AP made further substantial gains to become the second-largest parliamentary group. The other parties, namely the PDE, the CDS and the reunified PSOE lost ground, as did the ‘pragmatic republicans’ of the right-wing Liberal PPE.

For the third time, the PSOE was the largest party in the Parliament, winning 5,047,905 votes (20.5% of the vote) and 70 of the 350 seats in the Congress (a neat loss of 556,493 votes and 3 seats). Vestrynge's AP became the second political force with 4.777,500 votes, 19.5% and 22 seats (winning 1,528,400 votes and 1 seat). Suárez's CDS won 3,283.379 votes (13.4%) and 57 seats (losing 561,622 votes and 15 seats) while the PCE come close after the CDS with 3,087,280 votes (12.6%) and 34 seats (winning 2,497,806 votes and 25 seats). (2)

This time Tierno Galván was asked by the President Sánchez Albornoz, but he refused with good words. The PSOE's strategy was to have Suárez as prime minister and enduring the pressure and the bad press caused by the bad situation. Thus, Suárez had to form a new government. On the evening of September 13, Suárez was appointed prime minister. By that point, the list of ministers for the new cabinet was mostly completed. This was the fastest formation of a government, as the first cabinet meeting took place within 36 hours after the results of the elections were known.

This new cabinet was based, again, in the grand coalition of PPE, PSOE, CDS and DDP. As the AP was left out, its leader, Vestrynge, erupted in an explosion of anger, claiming that "we are being marginalized again" and nothing could appease him, and he vented his anger towards Suárez that, this time, was the captive of the PSOE. There was no coalition agreement and the government declaration September 14 did not offer a political program. The most pressing tasks for the government were stabilizing the currency, as the resulting collapse of the peseta in the currency markets had led to shortages of foreign currencies to pay for vital food imports.

Suárez was to face this situation with a government where his party was in clear minority, as the most important offices were in either Socialist (Defence -Narcis Serra-, Interior -José Barrionuevo-, Treasury -Carlos Solchaga-, Foreign Affairs -Fernando Morán- , Public Works -Julián Campo Sainz de Rozas- and Agriculture -Carlos Romero Herrera-) or in the PPE's hands (Justice -Pio Cabanillas-). The CDS only controlled Labour (Santiago Rodríguez-Miranda), Industry (Ignacio Bayón) and Culture (Soledad Becerril -3-).

As soon as the world knew that the Socialists were controlling most of the Spanish cabinet, the peseta plummeted and, on September 20th, the change peseta-dollar was fixed at 4,985 to one, and, ten days later, 19,940 pesetas to one dollar. Just due to the herculean work of Morán and the promises of Suárez to both Reagan and Thatcher, the trust in the recover of the Spanish economy began to return and, by September 25, the change peseta-dollar was fixed at 709 pesetas per dollar (4).

The lesson was clear. The PSOE could have most of the ministeries, but Washington, London and Wall Street only trusted Suárez.

(1) IN OTL, the cost of a kilo of potatoes was 20 pesetas.
(2) The results of the other parties:

PDE 1,395,503 votes, 5.7%, 20 seats. (losing 1,807,881 votes and 29 seats)
CiU 788,151 votes, 3.2%, 11 seats. (winning 14,807 votes and losing one seat)
PNV 269,881 votes, 1.1%, 4 seats. (losing 50,371 votes and 1 seats)
PTE 236,659 votes, 1,01%, 3 seats. (winning 18,063 vote)

(3) The first female Government Minister in almost 50 years.
(4) In OTL 1971 the change was 64,47 pesetas per dollar, in 1982 127, and in August 1983 it was 152,5 pesetas per dollar.
 
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Archangel

Good update, Kurt!:)
There's a small typo in the percentage of AP, where it reads 6.1%, perhaps it should be 16.1%.
 

Kurt_Steiner


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5. On the verge of bankrupcy: From September 4th to December 31st, 1983

From 4 September to 16 October, the Parliament was not in session and the government had to rely on Article 98 of the constitution which allowed issuing emergency decrees. In the cabinet meeting of 30 OCtober, the government discussed the necessity of a reform of the taxes. While there was a general consensus on the need to put an extra burden on the wealth taxes, there was division when it came to deal with dealing with a law that would extend working hours from the current norm of an eight-hour workday and a five-day working week. Basically, it was a too contoversial measure.

On 1 November, the cabinet agreed on the need for an emergency decree that would give the government wide-ranging powers not just in the financial and economic sphere but also in increasing working hours in "vital" industries. However, the next day the party leaders clashed on this issue. Tierno Galván, chairman of the PSOE, with an eye towards the unions and political competition from the Communists, argued against this. Miguel Boyer, of the PPE, demanded not only a decree raising working hours but also including the AP in the government.

On the evening of 2 November, the increase in the working day was included in the government proclamation, whilst the emergency decree would be limited to "financial, social and economic" measures. The PSOE refused to agree and insisted on the parliament's involvement in changes to working hours. The two main trade unions, CCOO and UGT, threatened with a general strike if the increase in the working day was passed. PDE and CDS willing to go along with this but Boyer and Cabanillas were opposed, with the latter arguing against the asymmetry of "burdening wealth by decree, but the working class only by law". Suarez tried and failed to win agreement from his party. On 6 November, the government seemed on the verge of failing.

That day, the change peseta-dollar doubled itself again, being fixed at 1,418 pesetas per dollar. By 16 November, the peseta plummeted again: 4,253 pesetas per dollar. Seven days later, the change was 25,316 pesetas per dollar. Duiring this days, prices reportedly rise hourly in several Spanish cities.

Finally, the Primer Decreto de Emergencia (First emergency law) was passed on November 27. It gave the government the powers to implement by decree the measures necessary to stop hyperinflation. The new cabinet was soon closely involved in negotiations that resulted in the INMICO treaties signed between November 1983 and March 1984, named after the International Mission of Control (INMICO) that were supervising the loans given to Spain. Thus, by December 10 the peseta had recovered a bit and the change was of "just" 11,150 pesetas per dollar.

Then, on December 20, as it was expected that the conservative leader, Jorge Vestrynge, was to present a motion of no confidence against the cabinet, Suárez decided to go on the offensive and the CDS and his allies introduced a motion of confidence, that was approved on 23 December by 231 against 112 (7 abstentions). That very day, the peseta recovered and its change went to 264,99 pesetas per dollar. Again the level Spanish government and economy resurfaced.

The government could boast that a wide range of progressive social reforms had been carried in the last bit of 1983, in spite of the critic situation. For instance, Joaquín Ruiz-Giménez, a former minister of Franco (minister of Education from 1951 to 1955) who moved to Christian Democrat positions and became one of the most relevant figures of the moderate inner opposition to Francoism. Failing to play a relevant role during the 1977 democratic elections, was appointed Ombudsman, the first one in holding this office in Spain (1982-1987).

Then, the Organic Law 9/1982 adopted on September 5, 1983, induced abortion was legalized in three cases: serious risk to physical or mental health of the pregnant woman, rape and malformations or defects, physical or mental, in the fetus. Eventually, abortion laws were further liberalized in 2005, to allow abortion on demand during the first trimester. Also, the Youth Welfare Act of 1983 obliged all municipalities and states to set up youth offices in charge of child protection, and also codified a right to education for all children. In 1983 a housing construction program was approved that, between 1984 and 1991, was to led to the construction of over 2 million new homes and a further 195,000 modernised.

Although the country functioned again, the savings were never restored, nor were the values of hard work and decency that had accompanied the savings. There was a different temper in the country. With the currency went many of the lifetime plans of average citizens. People who had worked a lifetime found that their pensions would not buy one cup of coffee. Now they had to redress this situation. The question was... how?

Thus 1983 ended.
 

Dr. Strangelove

Banned
Quite sad to see people as respected IOTL as Sanchez Albornoz and Tierno Galvan having to deal with such a shitty hand.

I like how this TL is dystopian enough without falling into the self-parody of grimdark that most dystopian tl's often degenerate into.
 

Kurt_Steiner

It's a pitty, indeed, but, from this bad situation, a better Spain will rise some day. It's going to take some time, of course.

Sadly, no one is going to live enough to see it. In fact, Sánchez-Albornoz's going to be most painful, as you'll see in the next chapter.

About not beign too dystopian... I'm trying to avoid this narration going out of hand. In fact, the initial levels of infaction and devaluation of the peseta were worse than the final ones of this chapter, but I feared that they were too much dark, so I'm refained myself and remained sensitive on the issue.
 

Kurt_Steiner


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6. An overall view of the Golden Age of Spain (1984-1989)

As the Spanish cinemas were flooded with a massive arrival of American films and the Gremlins thrilled many Spanish young (and not so young) people, the country entered into was later called "Los Dorados Años Ochenta" (The Golden Eighties).

The recovery and the stabilization of Spain surprised many after the crisis that broke in 1983, but this recovery was just on the surface. The structural problems and the inner troubles of the Spanish Republic had changed as little as the hostily of the hardliners from Left and Right towards the Republic. But as the economy became increasingly stable, the opposition forces had fewer opportunities to criticise the government and less popular support. This was far from meaning an easy job, as, from 1984 to 1989, all the successive government formed in those years were plagued by the inner division of the parties, which were themselves divided because of the loan question, so, in the end, that the government coalition had the majority or not ammounted to very little, as the governing parties were divided and quarrelling. However, 1984 began with an improvement for the economy of Spain.

By 1981 Spain's debt to her foreign creditors amounted to 5 billion pesetas. The London Ultimatum had tried to establish a new schedule for the payment of the loans, but, in the end, it only contributed to the hyperinflation that followed in Spain. To defuse this situation and increase the chances of Spain resuming her payments, the foreign creditors met to find a solution. The result was the INMICO commission, made up by eleven economist: one from Belgium (Luc Coene), two each from Western Germany (Hans-Werner Sinn and Joseph Huber), France (Olivier Blanchard and Maurice Allais), the Untied Kingdom (Anthony Atkinson and Vincent Cable), Italy (Federico Caffè and Attilio Celant), and the United States (Martin A. Armstrong and David B. Audretsch). It was entrusted with finding a solution for the the Spanish debt.

In the agreement of August 1984, the main point of the INMICO Plan was that the payments would be a quarter of billion pesetas each year. However, the payments depended on a condition: Spain had to had a stabilized economy and a favoreable commercial balance. The INMICO Plan relied on capital lent to Spain by a consortium of American investment banks, led by J.P. Morgan & Co. under the supervision of the US State Department. The plan was accepted by Spain, which, of course, was in no position to refuse, and went into effect in September 1984. Spanish business began to rebound during the mid-1980s and it made prompt payments.

The INMICO Plan provided short-term economic benefits to the Spanish economy and softened the burdens of the return of the loans. By stabilizing the currency, it brought increased foreign investments and loans to the Spanish market. However, it made the Spanish economy dependent on foreign investors, markets and economies, and locked the Spanish economy into that of the United States (1). Even worse, the INMICO Plan did not remove the structural troubles of Spain and the loan question kept poisoning the political scene and the foreign relations of Spain. However, as the INMICO plan led to the arrival of new machinery (bought with American loans) and new techniques of production to Spain, the result was a modernization of the Spanish industry and a faster economic growth rate, that, eventually, itt would led to reduce the Spanish unemployment levels from 2,5 million of unemployed workers in 1985 to 1,1 million in December 1987.

By accepting the INMICO Plan, Suarez ended the hyperinflation crisis backed by the new US loans and reassured both the Spaniards and the world that the Spanish Republic was not only willing but also able to solve urgent problems, leading to the renewed assistance from the US and the Western nations to negotiate with Spain, something that was to finally end the long diplomatic isolation that had been briefly broken after the death of Franco.

Society in general appears, at first glance, to have improved significantly. For example new roads, public buildings and schools were built throughout Spain between 1984 and 1990. Women had an increasingly important role to play in the Spanish economy and confidence in the economy was restored. Such was the stability of the economy that wages rose in real terms throughout the period 1984 to 1989, the standard of rose and the cost of living fell. All consequences of the industrial recovery triggered by the implementation of new policies is shown in the industrial output, that had doubled its 1983 levels by 1989, an useful measure of how far the economy did recover.

(1) Apparently, that the troubles caused by the heavy loans needed by the reconstruction process were solved by more loans did not puzzle anyone.
 
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Kurt_Steiner


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7. Hello, Goodbye, and Something in Between: From January 1st to April 1st, 1984

1984 began with the formation of a new association and the crisis of Alianza Popular. The new organization was the "Asociación Republicana" (Republican association), to defend parliamentary democracy against internal subversion and extremism from the left and right, to teach the population to respect the new Republic, to honor its flag and the constitution. Its founder was Adolfo Guerra, brother of the fomer Socialist leader. Organized as a multiparty organization, since its very beginning it came to be strongly associated with the PSOE.

However, Guerra's association was soon eclipsed by the crisis of the Alianza Popular, the main party of the Right. The cause of the crisis of the AP was a pamphlet published in 1983 by a young journalist called César Vidal (1), "Suárez must go", which was in equal terms violently anti-democratic and anti-Communist. The target of the pamphlet was Adolfo Suárez, of course, whom Vidal called "the puppet of Moscow", and called openly for his assassination to avenge his "crimes" such as signing the INMICO agreements. Vidal wrote that Suarez's career was "a sordid mixing of political activity with his own pecuniary advantage" Of course, Suárez sued Vidal for libel. Amid much media attention the libel trial ended on 12 March 1984 with the judge ruling that Vidal lacked any evidence to back up his claims, that were mixed with malicious slander and fined him to pay a sum for technical libel for the statements.

The crisis of the AP began when the representative for Teruel, Cruz Martínez Esteruelas, fomer minister of Franco, supported Vidal's statements in a vicious attack against Suárez. In spite that Martínez Esteruelas claimed to have the backup of many conservative politicians, Vestrynge forced him to resign because of his support to Vidal. As Vestrynge would state later, he reacted like that because he was trying to move AP away from the right to more centrist positions. Martínez Esteruelas' attitude, Vestrynge later claimed, showed him how wrong he was.

Thus, when in a meeting held on 21 March 1984 Carlos Robles Piquer, brother in law of Fraga, directed an attack against Vestrynge's leadership, the conservative leader, to the surprise of many, reacted by resigning at once, being replacead by Robles Piquer as General Secretari of AP, beginning a short but controversial presidency that would end up in May 1984 when Robles Piquer, who had replaced Vestrynge, was ousted from power. Since then, AP was leaded by Miguel Herrero y Rodríguez de Miñón, who had used Robles Piquer as an expendable tool to remove Vestrynge from power and the conspired against his replacement too. One year later, Vestrynge joined the CDS (2).

The effect of this crisis on the public opinion can be summarized in this way: the same day that Vestrynge resigned for each newspaper publishing the news, the Spanish readers bought two copies of the Spanish magazine Interviu, who featured in his frontpage the English singer and glamour model Samantha Fox (3).

Then, on April 1st, Ronald Reagan announced another plan to help Spain to recover: the USA was to loan to Spain 3000 million dollars over the next 6 years to help to pay the repayments and also to get the Spanish industry going.


(1) César Vidal is a Spanish lawyer turned journalist and writer known for his lack of rigor, biased arguments and blatant lies in his works.
(2) When Vestrynge resigned in OTL as vice-president of AP in 1986, for a while it was thought that he would join the CDS, although he finally became a member of the PSOE
(3) In fact Sam appared the previous week on the frontpage. BTW, Interviu called be called the Spanish version of Playboy, with its publishers more interested in offering good opinion articles and the Spaniards on the half-naked ladies that appeared on its pages.
 
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Kurt_Steiner

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8. The Spanish war Against Terror

Since 1980 ETA had been silent. Hardly hit by the repression that followed the failed revolution of September 1979, the terrorist organization had spent the last four years to recover and reconstruct its ranks and structure.

In 1981, from the two separate terrorist organizations, ETA political-military or ETA(pm), and ETA military or ETA(m), only the latter remained, as ETA(pm) had been almost wiped out during the repression and most of its leaders had been arrested. Then, at the beginning of 1981, the Spanish government made an offer of individual pardons to all ETA members who had committed no violent crimes and publicly abandoned the policy of violence. This caused a new division among the remnats of ETA(pm). Just a small part of it accepted this partial amnesty and integrated into the political party Euskadiko Ezkerra (EE, Left of the Basque Country). Thus, on March 1981, this small group of survivors, led by Eduardo Moreno Bergareche (Pertur) -1-, Joseba Aulestia Urrutia (Zotxa) and Miren Lourdes Alkorta Santos (Argi), annouced the dissolution of the group in a meeting with the French press at Bayonne.

Those members of ETA (pm) who did not accept the amnesty, after a brief period of independent activity, eventually integrated into ETA(m). With no factions existing anymore, ETA(m) revamped the original name of Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA). However, within ETA there was a group, called Zutik ("Torch"), whose leaders asked for a radical reassement of their ideology and tactics. Heavily influenced by communist thinking, they thought that the conflict in the Basque Country was a "bourgeois nationalist" one fomented and continued by the ruling class but suffered by the Pro-Spanish and the Basque nationalist working classes. Its effect was to depress wages, since worker could be set against worker. They concluded that the first step on the road to a Basque socialist republic was the "education" of the Basque working class. This would challenge the hegemony of what they termed "Spanish and French imperialism" and of the respective unionist and Basque burgeouis nationalist establishments north and south of the border. They also considered that a military campaign against the Spanish presence would be counter-productive, since it would delay the day when the workers would unite around social and economic issues.

This was to lead to the IX Assembly, held in December, 1981, when the members of Zuzik were expelled from ETA. A third of them were to walk out from Zuzik out and rejoin ETA in 1983. Eventually and quite ironicadlly, Zuzik would transform itself into a political party, named Ezker Demokratikoa (Democratic Left, ED), what was to last from 1984 to 1991.

By 1984, ETA was divided again, into what it was called «ETA berri» (New ETA) and «ETA zarra» (Old ETA). The «ETA berri» evolved into a new strategy which they called the "Long War", that included an acceptance that their campaign would last many years before being successful and an increased emphasis on political activity through HB, while those of «ETA zarra» did not agree on the need of any political activity whatsoever. The split of ETA was to become a feud and there were several incidents among them that were to leave three «ETA zarra» and five «ETA beri» members dead. The dead included prominent members of both organisations, causing a mutual hatred that time was not to diminish. On March 1984, both branches of ETA clashed in France and a member of the «ETA zarra» was killed. The two «ETA berri» men who killed him were arrested by the French Gendarmerie. In April 1984 the feud flared again after the «ETA berri» member Domingo Troitiño, was shot dead by the «ETA zarra» in Bilbao

Throughout the 1980s, allegations that ETA remained in existence and was engaged in criminal activity appeared in the Spanish press. In December 1982, a French newspaper published that ETA was still active and involved in widespread racketeering and armed robberies. This proved to be a considerable political embarrassment to HB, and in 1983 the two branches of ETA began an intense purge of its members. After that, on May 1984, ETA resumed its terror actions when two «ETA berri» began what it was called later on the May bombings, a series of bomb attacks carried out by «ETA berri». The attacks, consisting of coordinated bombings in Barajas Airport and the train stations of Atocha and Chamartín, killed 7 people and injured a further 100. Two days later, there were more attacks: two in Bilbao and San Sebastian, with both attacks killing two people.

-1- Pertur did not dissapear in this TL 1976.
 
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Xenophonte

Xenophonte

Fight against terrorism.

Interesting updates in this interesting TL ...

Reading the previous update arises me a question ... in this TL. France remains a sanctuary for ETA members, even after restart their terrorist activities?
The fight against terrorism will be a purely police matter or involve other security agencies ... related to this ... it will resort to the formation and use of the GAL or similar groups or the government would employ other official or unofficial strategies to fight against terrorism?
 

Kurt_Steiner

Let's go bit by bit.

The south of France became a sanctuary for ETA in the 1979-1980 period because of the repression that ensued after the revolution. As ETA members could pretend they were "nationalist refugees", "freedom fighters" or simply terrified citizens running away from the violence released by the "Cuerpos de Voluntarios", they were not something to worry about.

However... now they have some bad features that neither France nor Spain like. First, they have a part in the criminal world of the Basque Country (the French and the Spanish ones). Second, the two branches are set on a mutual war (call it "vendetta" if you like), that is unacceptable in any civilized world (France is not the Wild West and ETA members are not the Daltons). And then they resort to violence by attacking civilian targets? Are they trying to desistabilize a quite unstable regime that made the UN send an international force?

With his info, I bet you can imagine how long France is going to allow this to happen within hs country.

The fight is going to include all the tools that the Spanish government (and his partners and allies) consider useful to crack ETA down, you can be sure.

The GAL, as such, doesn't exist right now, nor the government has approved anything similar. Suárez was offered in the 1980s to create some kind of anti-ETA organisation, and he refused. Now I guess he would do the same.
 
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