No Spanish Civil war: A swift Military Coup

[GeneralInTheShell]

What if the (unsuccessful) military coup which was supposed to depose the Republican government, but instead sparked the Spanish Civil war, had been successful and the rebels took most if not all the major cities during the military revolt? What happens to the Spanish government? How does this effect WWII?

Also as an added butterfly José Sanjurjo survives; so will this effect thing?

 

[Ismail]

There'd be huge riots and attacks by leftists, but lack of a civil war would mean that rather than the delayed granting of arms to militias and anti-rebel parties to fight the rebellion, there wouldn't be any of that at all. So basically you'd probably see serious unrest by poorly-armed left-wingers, but not quite civil war conditions. There'd be less incentive to appeal to the Italians and Germans for assistance. The French would be upset but as in OTL would be held in check by the British. The new government would have pro-German/Italian elements, but nothing overt unless ideological fascists take power.

José Antonio Primo de Rivera would probably not have died, meaning that Falangism would remain undiluted rather than co-opted. The neutrality of Spain would depend on the state of the economy and the leadership of the country. Just note that there would be no Condor Legion, meaning no pre-war proto-Blitzkrieg training, while Italy would be in a bit better position to fight WWII since it spent quite a lot of effort helping the rebels from 1936-1939.

The big problem is that Sanjurjo had prestige amongst the right-wing but at the same time was seen as a good compromise character. The Bourbon and Carlist monarchists, the military, and the Falange would have gotten into disputes on the nature of the state once the coup succeeded.

 

[GeneralInTheShell]

With no Spanish Civil war to distract the Itallians could we see a war between Italy and Germany over Austria? After all Austria is ruled by the Vaterländische Front and was at this time allied with Italy.

 

[Aelita]

While the Republic itself showed an almost suicidal lack of competence in dealing with the early phases of the coup, the CNT will not go down without a fight. It was the CNT that warned the Republican government of the coup in the first place: warnings that were ignored. So when the Falangists mobilized to overthrow the Republic, it was the CNT's militias, without much cooperation from the Republican government, that put down most of the uprisings in Catalonia, Aragon and Valencia. Often times, they had to steal weapons from government arsenals, and scrap together captured equipment to arm themselves.

OTL was about the worst case scenario that would be plausible. The Republic was caught with its pants down, and more often than not actively sabotaged the efforts to fight the coup in those crucial first weeks. And ultimately, it was the timely arrival of irregulars, in particular the XI International Brigade and the Durruti Column, that turned the tide in the Battle of Madrid, making sure that the Republic wouldn't fall in a single season long campaign.

 

[GeneralInTheShell]

While the Republic itself showed an almost suicidal lack of competence in dealing with the early phases of the coup, the CNT will not go down without a fight. It was the CNT that warned the Republican government of the coup in the first place: warnings that were ignored. So when the Falangists mobilized to overthrow the Republic, it was the CNT's militias, without much cooperation from the Republican government, that put down most of the uprisings in Catalonia, Aragon and Valencia. Often times, they had to steal weapons from government arsenals, and scrap together captured equipment to arm themselves.

OTL was about the worst case scenario that would be plausible. The Republic was caught with its pants down, and more often than not actively sabotaged the efforts to fight the coup in those crucial first weeks. And ultimately, it was the timely arrival of irregulars, in particular the XI International Brigade and the Durruti Column, that turned the tide in the Battle of Madrid, making sure that the Republic wouldn't fall in a single season long campaign.

But if the Nationalists had taken Madrid and gotten rid of the Republic rather quickly how would this change things? What kind of effect would this have on the the tactics of WWII? and with Italy not distracted by the happenings in Italy would they have helped their Austrian allies against the Germans?

 

[Aelita]

But if the Nationalists had taken Madrid and gotten rid of the Republic rather quickly how would this change things? What kind of effect would this have on the the tactics of WWII? and with Italy not distracted by the happenings in Italy would they have helped their Austrian allies against the Germans?

Well, if Madrid falls in 1936, I imagine foreign aid for the rump-Republic dries up near totally. Mexico will still send humanitarian aid and military equipment, but I imagine the Soviets will cut their losses. The CNT's militias will fight to the bitter end though, so the Nationalists still have several more months of campaigning to do at least.

Beyond that, it is hard to tell. The Spanish Civil War was a prologue to WW2, and without the three year long laboratory, I imagine the German military will be considerably less effective. The Soviets may not undertake much reform of their military either.

 

[Kerblo]

During the Spanish Civil War the Republicans had control of the gold reserves. For safekeeping and to purchase arms and supplies they sent roughly 72% of the gold to Moscow. The gold reserve was estimated to be the fourth largest in the world.

A successful coup means that not only doesn't Moscow get the gold but Spain keeps it. This means that the USSR is financially weaker and will probably be forced to spend less building up their military. It also means that Germany and Italy don't give loans to Spain which are paid off by giving them food and raw materials during the war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_gold

 

[Karlos]

The coup could have succeded. In Barcelona, it was the Guardia Civil who decided the outcome by siding with the legitimal governement. If Madrid and Barcelona fell, there would be no Spanish Civil war. Besides, Franco would not have been the boss, which opens a new lot of possibilities. An spanish totalitarian regime without the devastation of a civil war could have joined the Axis as the italians did in 1940.

 

[Julius Vogel]

While I support the Republican side in the war (as much as a person can 70 or years after the event), a quick end to the revolt from one of the sides, even the Rebels, is probably a net positive for the world and for Spain.

Although I guess that feeling depends on how vindicative the Rebels would be against their enemies. Is it likely they conduct the purges on such a large scale without the long war to brutalise everyone? I would expect there would be some killings and lots of imprisonment in any event

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

If Emilio Mola ends in command, the situation has the potential of going very dystopian very fast. The guy openly admitted that the only way to pacify the country after the coup would be to kill or imprison everyone associated with the Popular Front.

Another side effect if Sanjurjo does not become leader would be that the rebels would probably keep Spain a Republic and maintain the tricolor flag.

 

[Ismail]

Another side effect if Sanjurjo does not become leader would be that the rebels would probably keep Spain a Republic and maintain the tricolor flag.

The problem is that from 1931-1936 the "pro-Republic" CEDA claimed it had the opportunity to produce a situation acceptable to monarchists, large landowners, the Church, conservative sections of the army, and right-wing capitalists. For instance, its leader Gil Robles praised fascism and said that Spain should become a corporate Republic rather than the dreaded "Bolshevik" government it was supposedly a front for.

Once CEDA lost the 1936 elections it basically melted (its youth wing largely joined the Falange) and openly anti-Republic forces came to the fore. Most of the forces within the rebellion either wanted to make the Republic something significantly different than what the Pact of San Sebastián envisioned or to replace it with a monarchy. I don't think they would keep the tricolor in the end.

 

[Linense]

If the coup of July 1936 had been an overwhelming success in Spain had been proclaimed a military junta headed by General Sanjurjo. However, details such as the form of government had been given the support they had had the coup. For example, the Carlist were extremely important in Navarra, but in the rest of the country were a minority force, and although the CEDA had many pro-monarchist elements, they accepted a Republic of conservative authoritarian.

There is also the question of whether Sanjurjo died when he was traveling to Spain (as in OTL), which would lead to a restructuring of the coup commanders, and if the coup had been an overwhelming success, their leader would surely General Mola (the true organizer of the coup), in favor of maintaining a military dictatorship under the republican form of government (which led to many confrontations with the Carlist in preparations for the coup).

However, I honestly think that in the event that the coup had succeeded it would have established a military dictatorship under the guise republican would have eliminated the major leftist leaders, based on the former dictatorship of General Primo de Rivera, but without a true political control of the Falange, establishing a similar group of families ideological (monarchical, traditional, military, Falange, Catholics, agrarians) that converge in a conservative military dictatorship, similar to the Franco dictatorship in OTL.

Surely, after the growth of fascist movements in Europe, the dictatorship would be likened some elements of the Falange to accommodate the new European situation (as did, for example, Milos Horthy in Hungary), but only Spain would enter into the Axis if Germany assured him Gibraltar and part of the booty French (French Morocco, the Oran region, Mauritania, Roussillon and an expansion of Spanish Guinea, without forgetting the possibility of conquering Portugal, with what it all meant, including the Portuguese colonies) when France was about to be defeated (similar to what Mussolini did in June 1940, but not before the Franco-German armistice).

Its further evolution would depend on whether, with the Spanish contribution (which would be a little less important than the Italian, but it was considerable), Germany could force Britain peace (only I could get if German could conquer the Suez Canal and joined Iraqi nationalist forces that fought against British colonialism) and then deal directly with the Soviet Union in search of its Lebensraum.

Otherwise surely be repeated a similar scenario to the Peninsular War, being able to produce a landing in Spain (always after another landing in North Africa, on French colonies, perhaps in Senegal), causing the Second World War ended not before 1946.

With this scenario, we can not deny the possible influence that the military dictatorship established in Spain in Latin America could produce, as it could fly the flag hispanist against U.S. imperialism, creating many socioeconomic conflicts with the U.S.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Wasn't there already an Anarchist revolution going on in Catalonia before the Nationalist coup attempt?

 

[Goldstein]

Wasn't there already an Anarchist revolution going on in Catalonia before the Nationalist coup attempt?

No; not before the coup attempt.

Once CEDA lost the 1936 elections it basically melted (its youth wing largely joined the Falange) and openly anti-Republic forces came to the fore. Most of the forces within the rebellion either wanted to make the Republic something significantly different than what the Pact of San Sebastián envisioned or to replace it with a monarchy. I don't think they would keep the tricolor in the end.

For sure, but who says the purple stripe stands for pinko leftiness in first place? The Nationalists used the tricolor in the first stages of the war IOTL. They probabily skipped it to avoid confusion with the Popular Army.

 

[Kome]

No; not before the coup attempt.

If i remember correctly that was in 1934.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

If i remember correctly that was in 1934.

Those were socialists in Asturias. So, no.

 

[Kome]

If Emilio Mola ends in command, the situation has the potential of going very dystopian very fast. The guy openly admitted that the only way to pacify the country after the coup would be to kill or imprison everyone associated with the Popular Front.

Another side effect if Sanjurjo does not become leader would be that the rebels would probably keep Spain a Republic and maintain the tricolor flag.

I think the other generals would send Mola to an island posting if he tries that, mostly cause how insane it is. Mola definatly wouldent have the amount of power Franco had, since Franco came into power by an absurd number of leading generals being killed off during the war.

 

[Linense]

It also depends on general arrive first to Madrid, following the death of General Sanjurjo in a plane crash.

On this occasion, Franco was elected leader of the coup because he had under his orders to the army's most powerful nationalist troops, the colonial army in Africa.

However, if the coup would have had greater success, General Mola could have been leading the attack on Madrid and hold the leadership coup.

However, to adequately address the possibility raised from this discussion as realistic as possible, we should focus on the fact that the coup was the same as in OTL, with the only significant change in the further development of the civil war the fact that the Soviets never helped the Republicans (which is understandable, given the European context of the period, taking into account the limited relations between the Republic and the Soviet Union), which had generated a total military defeat of the Republic between October and December 1936.

Given this scenario, would stand a military dictatorship, with clear signs of clericalism and fascism, as the Franco dictatorship. However, subtle differences opened. There would be no real control of the political forces that supported the coup, as the Unification Decree was made on April 1937. Moreover, the repression could be a shorter range (at least not having three years of war), especially taking into account whether Jose Antonio survive the war, as he proclaimed a conciliatory speech from Spanish to unite under the banner of the Spanish Falange (however, his position was made when he was arrested in Alicante, so that might have changed as was free), similar to that made by the military falngistas in 1938, as Yagüe. Therefore, it was not clear the leadership of the new regime (Mola died in June 1937), both in military and political organization (the CEDA could have saved enough of its structure as well as Renovación Española -the authoritarian monarchical-, but the strongest political force of the rebels would have been Falange, which could hamper the control if José Antonio was still alive at the end of civil war).

 

[Cook]

While I support the Republican side in the war (as much as a person can 70 or years after the event)...

Julius has the Delurean fuelled up in the driveway with the boot packed with RPGs and Semtex…

 

[Niko Malaka]

Wasn't there already an Anarchist revolution going on in Catalonia before the Nationalist coup attempt?

Something that catalan nationalists and even catalan left don't like to mention in this issue is the catalan counter-revolution. Specially because it was fueled by the ideological and even biological ancestors of the main current catalanist parties. If you read that touristic guide (though wonderful) entitled "Hommage to Catalonia", you will see the swiftching of the situation with the pass of the months. If you read other books, you will learn about the contacts between the party Estat Català and the Lliga Regionalista Catalana (the latter, origin of current CiU) to stop that dangerous working class revolution which even had those xarnego leaders. The most prolific writter in catalan language, and also a very respected author in castilian language, Josep Plà, was a francoist agent (the son of the bitch informed about people trying to fly fascist Spain through the Pyrinees) and a Lliga militant, for example.



On the other hand, in a more general note, in order to grant a "coupist" success you need a POD probably in the late 19th century. In other words, you need a mean to demovilize, neutralize or butterflty away the spanish left wing forces which led the response against the military coup in 1936. It includes mainly anarchists, socialists and communists. Considering the social circumstances in Spain at the time, it seems tricky, though of course not impossible.

Even if the government doesn't give weapons to the unions etc, it is possible to see them taking those weapons by force and by unofficial ways in the main cities, as actually happened de facto at least in Madrid and Barcelona in OTL.

So, how do you keep in order the likely social response?

Cheers.