Mare Nostrum! Panzer Army Africa in the Middle East (Manstein in Africa Part III)

Let me point out some problems with your assumption that Turkey would eagerly fall into line with Germany. To gegin with the Turkish Government despised Hitler and the military had a likeopinion of the Nazi's. To win them over the Germans would have to provide a lot of material and perhaps the promise of a return of some of the territory lost during the first World War-ie Northern Iraq (Kurdistan).

Nest the British would also be capable of mounting raids on the Germans using some of the Jewish trained troops. They would be quite capable of infiltrating through the Axis lines and gathering intelligence and destroying Axis Supplies.

I would also believe that you have under esitimated US preparedness for the war and suggest that you read How America Saved the World: The untold story of US Prepareedness Between the World Wars By Eris HammeL.
 
Let me point out some problems with your assumption that Turkey would eagerly fall into line with Germany. To gegin with the Turkish Government despised Hitler and the military had a likeopinion of the Nazi's. To win them over the Germans would have to provide a lot of material and perhaps the promise of a return of some of the territory lost during the first World War-ie Northern Iraq (Kurdistan).

Nest the British would also be capable of mounting raids on the Germans using some of the Jewish trained troops. They would be quite capable of infiltrating through the Axis lines and gathering intelligence and destroying Axis Supplies.

I would also believe that you have under esitimated US preparedness for the war and suggest that you read How America Saved the World: The untold story of US Prepareedness Between the World Wars By Eris HammeL.

The military in Turkey held the Germans in esteem (and would more so now since they are achieving stunning victories)
Turkey was a long time enemy of Russia
Turkey could be enticed by regaining lost territories in Syria and Northern Iraq and the caucus area (which would be full of friendly ethnic turks)
The British look extremely vulnerable at this particular point so the Turks might be encouraged to think they can recover valuable territory on the cheap
Turkey would be impressed by the integration of the axis and the territorial goodies going to Italy and later Spain
 
Let me point out some problems with your assumption that Turkey would eagerly fall into line with Germany. To gegin with the Turkish Government despised Hitler and the military had a likeopinion of the Nazi's.

That should have changed by now. The joint Axis efforts in North Africa and Rommels integration of Axis troops should provide a good example about what Turkey could expect from joining the Axis. In particular, they'd get supplies, equippment, licences, technology and training.

Furthermore, it shouldn't be a problem to giev some territories to the Turks. Cyprus, Northern Iraq as well as Russian Caucasus territories are at disposal.

Nest the British would also be capable of mounting raids on the Germans using some of the Jewish trained troops. They would be quite capable of infiltrating through the Axis lines and gathering intelligence and destroying Axis Supplies.

Very true. However, note that Blairwitch - as far as I know - did not mention the Jews with a single word in his TL so far. Maybe he's about to surprise us. As soon as the Nazis hold the Red Sea and Palestine, they could deport the European Jews to Madagaskar or Palestine...
 
Great start, even if it is just a planning post. It definitely got me thinking...

So the planned Turkish front and the Egyptian front will be using Barbarossa troops, right? That's a pretty significant weakening.

It looks like IOTL that when the Germans provided air support to the Iraqis earlier in 1941, the British used this as an excuse to invade Syria. I'm assuming that went over as IOTL?

What is the attitude of the Sauds? Whose camp are they in? Could the Axis play Sauds off of Hashemites or vice-versa?

This last post takes place in Sept '41, which IOTL was when the British forces in the Middle East were mopping up their invasion of Persia. I'm guessing that whole invasion doesn't happen ITTL? Not with every man needed in Palestine and Jordan.

Also, Persia, if anything, must be even more eager to declare for the Axis ITTL. How do you think they'll be playing the situation?

Is there anything stopping the Russians from invading Persia preemptively, on their own? The Germans wouldn't want to tip their hand at this point by sparking further tensions with the Soviets, so they could hardly do more than condemn it from the pulpit. They've got no more leverage over Stalin without activating Barbarossa half-cocked. The Brits might be pissed, but at this point they might see it as a question of a pro-Axis Persia at their back, which they'll have to subdue, or a Soviet-occupied Persia that for the moment at least is respecting their oil rights and allowing transit. Molotov-Eden Pact, anyone? :p

Hitler's goal is to the use the 1st Panzer Army and 6th Army to facilitate the capture of the middle east and then transfer them back before Barbarossa (based on what you allready know about the time sequence this gives them 8 or 9 months to pull it off) Keep in mind that there is going to be a reserve army of 12 divisions built up to drive deep into Persia that won't be available till late 1942 that will be commanded by Rommel

The Russian's will not be idle or not enjoy their pound of flesh in this situation but it will be explored later in the book
 
While the Turkish military may have admired the German military and most German military personnel they despised the Nazi's. Hitler was not held in high esteem by anyone in the Turkish Government and the Turkish military.

As for the Caucasus region the Turks would have plenty of resistance from the Armenian population, which hated the Turks with a passion since the massacres of the Armenian people during WWI. It is propable that the Georgians would also resist any Turkish invasion.

Again Turkey's political leadership sympathized with the Allies not the Axis.Turkey would have to be totally convinced that the Axis was going to win big and would want not only territorial compensation but a massive supply of modern weapons. This would not be something that German would have the capacity to provide. There has to be limits to how much the Germans are able to produce even shifting to a full war economy. One can not supply, Italy, Romania, Spain, Hungary, Finland and its own military and then add on the Turks.
 
While the Turkish military may have admired the German military and most German military personnel they despised the Nazi's. Hitler was not held in high esteem by anyone in the Turkish Government and the Turkish military.

As for the Caucasus region the Turks would have plenty of resistance from the Armenian population, which hated the Turks with a passion since the massacres of the Armenian people during WWI. It is propable that the Georgians would also resist any Turkish invasion.

Again Turkey's political leadership sympathized with the Allies not the Axis.Turkey would have to be totally convinced that the Axis was going to win big and would want not only territorial compensation but a massive supply of modern weapons. This would not be something that German would have the capacity to provide. There has to be limits to how much the Germans are able to produce even shifting to a full war economy. One can not supply, Italy, Romania, Spain, Hungary, Finland and its own military and then add on the Turks.

Agreed about your last idea... the Turkish military was much father behind than some of the other axis members and the Germans are really pushing themselves (the British where of the opinion that the Turkish Navy and Airforce where useless and that their field army would only be good in defensive operations in the rugged terrain of their homeland. And whilst there would be some minority groups that would side with the Soviets against the Turks... there are also many thousands of ethnic Turks in that area who would be more than happy to join arms with their kinsmen. The Chechens would also probably welcome the Germans/Turks as liberators.
 
The Transition Of Turkey Into Our Camp (Chapter 3) (hopefully I am hitting my stride and will get these updates done more timely)
Hitler's military HQ September 1941

Franz Von Papen and Hitler had a very precarious relationship. Having served as chancellor of Germany and even Vice Chancellor under Hitler himself in the early days, he was certainly a well known figure throughout Europe. On the other hand Hitler had been quick to marginalize him upon taking power and had dispatched large elements of his entourage during the light of the long knives and it seemed he was always the wrong word or look or aquaintance away from being packed off to prison or the hangman's noose.

Papen, not for nothing was not only competent but he was a very careful fence sitter and had ridden out the worst of the Nazi's comming to power and their cosolidiation. For the last two years he had been serving in the important post as ambassador to Turkey. He had numerous contacts in the Turkish diplomatic corps and had established cordial relations both with the foreign minister and with President Inoue himself. For years he had carefully tried to bring the Turkish government into the axis with only marginal success. While there where some small factions that favored the Germans or the British, everyone was afraid of Russia whom they knew coveted the Bosphorus and more to the point nearly the entire government and the army where beholden to Inoue who if anything favored the great powers balancing each other out so Turkey could achieve their own policy initiatives

papen_franzthumbnail.jpg

Franz Von Papen was the German ambassador to Turkey charged with bringing her into the fold

Papen however had detected a change in a few attitudes recently. Where Manstein reaching Alexandria and Rabini capturing Malta had raised some Turkish eyebrows, Manstein and Bastico surging over the Suez Canal had opened doors shut since 1918.

In 1939 and again in early 1941 before Manstein went to Africa, Hitler had written long letters to President Inoue, stating Germany's friendly intentions towards the Turks, recalling their shared hardship and comradery from the first world war, and pointing to their mutual interest in limiting the power of the Russians. Innocently, Inoue had been talked into signing a treaty of friendship with Germany in early 1941, which was entirely diplomatic and harmless, but showed that Germany had found its footing on the right path
2_Gallipoli_051101123834026_wideweb__300x375.jpg

Turkey and Germany shared many common hardships in the first world war and the two armies where bonded by the experience even if their governments where not.

Hitler and Manstein explained to Papen, their objective of bringing Turkey into the axis camp or at least gaining transit rights for the 1st Panzer and 6th Army to get into the Middle East. Hitler authorized very generous terms for Papen to offer (although fulfilling them would be a different venture)
Manstein's success in Hummel and Half Moon had made it impossible to supply Crete and Cyrpus without a suicide run through the Med in the face of overwhelming axis airpower (a single route soon to be closed by Rommel) and Churchill had reluctantly withdrawn their meagre garrisons to Haifa to bolster the thin lines blocking Manstein's most advanced divisions. German airpower was quick to notice these evacuations and convoys of troops from the 2nd Gebirsjaeger division and the wacht regiment where dispatched to secure the islands and immediately and start restoring airfields the British had wrecked on their way out.
Operation%20Mercury.jpg

German air and naval dominence in the eastern Mediterranian made Cyprus and Crete untenable
Papen with his instructions clear to him opened negotiations with the Turks. The offer was generous... in return for Turkey joining the axis, they would be compensated with Cyprus, certain Aegan islands, Syria, northern Iraq (Kurdistan) and although the oil producing areas would be excluded... they where offered territory in the caucauses as well which appealed to the Army's pan Turkism. Papen promised that once German forces entered the country they would leave a corps in place to start immediately training Turkish formations, and that Luftwaffe instructors would be made available to improve the quality of Turkish pilots. Papen also promised generous economic assisstance, weapons licenses and help setting up modern production lines.

Despite his ardent professionalism, Papen found himself up against a brick wall in Inoue who wanted to continue to steer an independant course. After a few weeks of this game Hitler grew very inpatient and angry and he ordered that the constellation of power in Turkey needed to be changed

to be continued

your thoughts
 
If Turkey does end up joining the Axis I would expect the Soviets to come down on their Turkic population like a ton of bricks. I don't know how feasible it would be, but something like Operation Lentil would probably end up including most of Azerbaijan as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Lentil_(Caucasus)

Also what are your plans for the Egypt if Axis forces do take Cairo? Will there be any attempt to get the monarchists or other groups to collaborate? or are you planning for Egypt to be taken by Mussolini?
 
If Turkey does end up joining the Axis I would expect the Soviets to come down on their Turkic population like a ton of bricks. I don't know how feasible it would be, but something like Operation Lentil would probably end up including most of Azerbaijan as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Lentil_(Caucasus)

Also what are your plans for the Egypt if Axis forces do take Cairo? Will there be any attempt to get the monarchists or other groups to collaborate? or are you planning for Egypt to be taken by Mussolini?

I imagine that Beria would clamp down on the ethnic turks... but not until shooting broke out for fear of initiating shooting
The plan for now is that Egypt is slated to go into Mussolini's spoils should the axis be successful
 

kenmac

Banned
The Transition Of Turkey Into Our Camp (Chapter 3) (hopefully I am hitting my stride and will get these updates done more timely)
Hitler's military HQ September 1941

Franz Von Papen and Hitler had a very precarious relationship. Having served as chancellor of Germany and even Vice Chancellor under Hitler himself in the early days, he was certainly a well known figure throughout Europe. On the other hand Hitler had been quick to marginalize him upon taking power and had dispatched large elements of his entourage during the light of the long knives and it seemed he was always the wrong word or look or aquaintance away from being packed off to prison or the hangman's noose.

Papen, not for nothing was not only competent but he was a very careful fence sitter and had ridden out the worst of the Nazi's comming to power and their cosolidiation. For the last two years he had been serving in the important post as ambassador to Turkey. He had numerous contacts in the Turkish diplomatic corps and had established cordial relations both with the foreign minister and with President Inoue himself. For years he had carefully tried to bring the Turkish government into the axis with only marginal success. While there where some small factions that favored the Germans or the British, everyone was afraid of Russia whom they knew coveted the Bosphorus and more to the point nearly the entire government and the army where beholden to Inoue who if anything favored the great powers balancing each other out so Turkey could achieve their own policy initiatives

papen_franzthumbnail.jpg

Franz Von Papen was the German ambassador to Turkey charged with bringing her into the fold

Papen however had detected a change in a few attitudes recently. Where Manstein reaching Alexandria and Rabini capturing Malta had raised some Turkish eyebrows, Manstein and Bastico surging over the Suez Canal had opened doors shut since 1918.

In 1939 and again in early 1941 before Manstein went to Africa, Hitler had written long letters to President Inoue, stating Germany's friendly intentions towards the Turks, recalling their shared hardship and comradery from the first world war, and pointing to their mutual interest in limiting the power of the Russians. Innocently, Inoue had been talked into signing a treaty of friendship with Germany in early 1941, which was entirely diplomatic and harmless, but showed that Germany had found its footing on the right path
2_Gallipoli_051101123834026_wideweb__300x375.jpg

Turkey and Germany shared many common hardships in the first world war and the two armies where bonded by the experience even if their governments where not.

Hitler and Manstein explained to Papen, their objective of bringing Turkey into the axis camp or at least gaining transit rights for the 1st Panzer and 6th Army to get into the Middle East. Hitler authorized very generous terms for Papen to offer (although fulfilling them would be a different venture)
Manstein's success in Hummel and Half Moon had made it impossible to supply Crete and Cyrpus without a suicide run through the Med in the face of overwhelming axis airpower (a single route soon to be closed by Rommel) and Churchill had reluctantly withdrawn their meagre garrisons to Haifa to bolster the thin lines blocking Manstein's most advanced divisions. German airpower was quick to notice these evacuations and convoys of troops from the 2nd Gebirsjaeger division and the wacht regiment where dispatched to secure the islands and immediately and start restoring airfields the British had wrecked on their way out.
Operation%20Mercury.jpg

German air and naval dominence in the eastern Mediterranian made Cyprus and Crete untenable
Papen with his instructions clear to him opened negotiations with the Turks. The offer was generous... in return for Turkey joining the axis, they would be compensated with Cyprus, certain Aegan islands, Syria, northern Iraq (Kurdistan) and although the oil producing areas would be excluded... they where offered territory in the caucauses as well which appealed to the Army's pan Turkism. Papen promised that once German forces entered the country they would leave a corps in place to start immediately training Turkish formations, and that Luftwaffe instructors would be made available to improve the quality of Turkish pilots. Papen also promised generous economic assisstance, weapons licenses and help setting up modern production lines.

Despite his ardent professionalism, Papen found himself up against a brick wall in Inoue who wanted to continue to steer an independant course. After a few weeks of this game Hitler grew very inpatient and angry and he ordered that the constellation of power in Turkey needed to be changed

to be continued

your thoughts

The Turks would have to be stupid to turn down this offer.
However if they did the Germans would be stupid to invade Turkey too.
The best course of action for the Germans with the Turks still out would be to settle for Palestine and East Africa while trying and bring Vichy in as a full Axis partner.
 
Hmm, I have absolutely no knowledge about the factions inside Turkey during WWII, but maybe the enlarged axis (with a whole new appreciation for black ops ) has the means to replace Inoue with someone who is more to their liking. If they succeed, the Middle east is done for, and even if the turkish army isn't up to modern standards - Russia definitely can't handle another 500.000 opponents (which would be a medium-sized build-up for the Turks).

If Turkey joins the axis with all their heart, the outcome of this war is clear.
(Yes, I know: all US fanboys are going to throw nukes at me - but german citys are neither built of wood and paper, nor is a victorious axis europe as easy to bomb as Japan. There's just no way that a single large bomber is going to get past Paris, and if you hide it in a stream, it has the same chance of getting shot down as any other - which is about 1 in 9 if its lucky)

Anywho, good to see the story continued - one great work BW!!
 
Hmm, I have absolutely no knowledge about the factions inside Turkey during WWII, but maybe the enlarged axis (with a whole new appreciation for black ops ) has the means to replace Inoue with someone who is more to their liking. If they succeed, the Middle east is done for, and even if the turkish army isn't up to modern standards - Russia definitely can't handle another 500.000 opponents (which would be a medium-sized build-up for the Turks).

If Turkey joins the axis with all their heart, the outcome of this war is clear.
(Yes, I know: all US fanboys are going to throw nukes at me - but german citys are neither built of wood and paper, nor is a victorious axis europe as easy to bomb as Japan. There's just no way that a single large bomber is going to get past Paris, and if you hide it in a stream, it has the same chance of getting shot down as any other - which is about 1 in 9 if its lucky)

Anywho, good to see the story continued - one great work BW!!

I don't have the expertise of someone like Pasha... but there where factions within the military that would be enthralled with Pan Turkism. Inoue however held all the reigns of power and would have to be removed in order for an alliance to be concluded. If rumor gets out of the sort of generous offer Papen is making and the weakness of the British in the area... certain elements in the army can be coopted into playing ball with the fascists

we are a long long way from nukes... my farthest thoughts in this story haven't hid mid '43 yet.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I don't have the expertise of someone like Pasha... but there where factions within the military that would be enthralled with Pan Turkism. Inoue however held all the reigns of power and would have to be removed in order for an alliance to be concluded. If rumor gets out of the sort of generous offer Papen is making and the weakness of the British in the area... certain elements in the army can be coopted into playing ball with the fascists.

I fully agree with this. Given the generosity of the Axis' offer, and the weakness of the Allies, and the typical attitudes of the Turkish military, if Inoue proves obstinate (and frankly, at this point he would look in the eyes of many Turks but the committed anti-fascists like he's working against the best interests of his country), the Axis diplomats and intelligence play their cards decently (and I see no real difficulty here), I totally see a pro-Axis coup in Turkey occurring. Refusing the offer would take a political committment to the Allied cause which I see non-existent in the vast mjority of the Turkish army. If Inoue personally begs to object, he may be removed. That's how I would settle the issue, anyway.
 
If rumor gets out of the sort of generous offer Papen is making and the weakness of the British in the area... certain elements in the army can be coopted into playing ball with the fascists

I think a public statement of the offer and the subsequent decline should be enough to get rid of Inoue. No need for direct Axis involvement.

we are a long long way from nukes... my farthest thoughts in this story haven't hid mid '43 yet.

Given Hitler's will for cooperation, we'll likely see a Pan-Axis effort to develop nukes. That should make quite a difference later.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I think a public statement of the offer and the subsequent decline should be enough to get rid of Inoue. No need for direct Axis involvement.

Quite probably, as the Turkish generals would take the matter in their own hands if need be. They were never shy of getting rid of unsatisfactory governments, and Inonu did not carry Ataturk's prestige.

Given Hitler's will for cooperation, we'll likely see a Pan-Axis effort to develop nukes. That should make quite a difference later.

It depends on how efficient is the contribution of Italian and French "Aryan" scientists to the German nuclear program. The integrated Axis certainly has the money after the bulk of the integration effort is done, the problem was the brains, as the German scientists were quite off-track (but they developed a quite effective radiological "dirty bomb").
 
It depends on how efficient is the contribution of Italian and French "Aryan" scientists to the German nuclear program. The integrated Axis certainly has the money after the bulk of the integration effort is done, the problem was the brains, as the German scientists were quite off-track.

Well, I seriously doubt that non-German Axis scientists would despise "Jewish physics" in the same way as the Germans did IOTL...
 

Eurofed

Banned
Well, I seriously doubt that non-German Axis scientists would despise "Jewish physics" in the same way as the Germans did IOTL...

Actually, the German team was not into any such Nazi pseudoscientific bullshit, nor their overseers were pressuring them to do so (if they would deliver Hitler with a functioning nukes, he would congratulate them for a triumph of German science and tell Goebbels to instruct the masses that Einstein stole his ideas from some Aryan scientist). It's just that they made several wrong theoretical and technical assumptions about the project. They needed external input with the right ideas to being them back on the correct track if the project is to be accelerated substantially and be remotely competitive with Manhattan.
 
The Axis do not have the resources necessary to build nukes.
Don't turn this into a Naziwank please.

I still do not understand why the Turks won't join the Axis. This is just stupid.
 
Well you certainly couldn't make a public statement saying the Turks are getting the Russian territory at this point for the very obvious reason that Russia might have something to say about the matter, and the less obvious reason that Stalin might just "move" all the Turkic peoples in the region and say, "There! It's not Turkish anymore!"

Even the rest of it is politically dicey for the Germans to promise outright. Syria and the Aegean territories make France and especially Greece more difficult places to work with under occupation/collaboration. And the pro-axis sentiments in Iraq and amongst the Arab population in the Near East would probably be significantly dimmed by the prospect of what might look like the re-activation of the Ottoman Empire.

That's not to say the Germans wouldn't go ahead with it; tactless blunders do happen and diplomacy's not their strong suit after the war begins. But the results of releasing a statement would be a lot of general unrest in Turkey and Greece and probably a souring of feelings in Egypt, France and a few other places.

It makes more sense to find a Turk willing to spout off about territorial goals, have the Germans generically support him, and keep making the right promises to the right people in secret.

And of course the French can later be bought off with lots of other territory but expect the Greeks to be among the most willing to revolt, whether they get outside help or not.
 
Well you certainly couldn't make a public statement saying the Turks are getting the Russian territory at this point for the very obvious reason that Russia might have something to say about the matter, and the less obvious reason that Stalin might just "move" all the Turkic peoples in the region and say, "There! It's not Turkish anymore!"

True.

Even the rest of it is politically dicey for the Germans to promise outright. Syria and the Aegean territories make France and especially Greece more difficult places to work with under occupation/collaboration. And the pro-axis sentiments in Iraq and amongst the Arab population in the Near East would probably be significantly dimmed by the prospect of what might look like the re-activation of the Ottoman Empire.

True. Although, first, France could get something else for Syria. IT might be of interest for a possible conservative pro-Axis French government to exchange northern Syria for the Holy land.

Considering Greece, they'd obviously be alienated, but that should be of no concern to the Axis. Bulgaria and Italy will get large junks of Greece, so they'd be alienated nevertheless. Lossing some additional island to the Turks shouldn't make that much of a difference.

The Arabs, on the other side, are a very ood point. We know that many Arab leaders were rather pro-Axis back then. Arabs friendly for the Axis-cause are a major asset, particularly considering supply lines of oil. As discussed previously, Jewish fighters might be a problem for the occupying Axis powers, yet a problem the Arabs could deal with. So you're very right with the Arabs.

However, Northern Iraq is predominantly Kurdish, so that should be possible. Cyprus would also go along well. These concessions could be published.
 
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