Reposting, due to editing. Also, further comment/B_Munro grade.
[FONT="]Huh, a reverse-American revolution. Never seen that before. Also, that's a lovely shade of green.
Right then. B_Munro gave me some pointers on the scenario I posted previously, and I modified the scenario for plausibility. As previously stated, this scenario was inspired by Kaiserreich, HEAVILY by General Mosh’s excellent Bandits and Generals, heavily by rvbomally’s excellent Ad Astra Per Aspera (including a scenario shamelessly ganked from his TL), a bit of TL-191, and a bit by one of the old “People from Alternate Universe’s Thread”.[/FONT]
[FONT="]NOTE: This is very much a WiP. Comments and criticisms (ESPECIALLY criticisms) would be greatly appreciated.
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[FONT="]POD, and the Mexican Front[/FONT]
[FONT="]The first POD is fairly minor; Yuan Shikai, after much deliberation, decides against having himself coroneted as some new Emperor of China, and the Beiyang government remains loyal to him.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The second POD is also fairly small. In Columbus, New Mexico, a mysterious fire breaks out at the garrison housing the 13th Calvary before Pancho Villa’s forces arrive, killing many of the soldiers as they slept and dispersing the survivors in the chaos. The Villistas take advantage of the chaos to raid the town much more excessively than OTL, which ends in what was more-or-less a barbaric raping/pillaging bloodbath.[/FONT]
[FONT="]American-Mexican relations take a sharp turn for the worst after this raid, and subsequent cross-border raids regrettably lead to an American declaration of war on Mexico, and an invasion on August 10, 1916, with the stated purpose of restoring order to the border regions, but with the ultimate goal of a drive to Mexico City to end the civil war on American terms. The war diverts materiel and funds being shipped to the Entente, significantly relieving pressure on the Germans. [/FONT]
[FONT="]The American declaration of war was accompanied by some major changes in the Mexican government. Notably, Emiliano Zapata signed a ceasefire with the Carranza government in the face of the American threat. This would be a very tentative and shaky alliance, with Carranza rejecting every suggestion of a peace offering by Zapata regarding the Americans.[/FONT]
[FONT="]While largely successful prior to the presidential election, the Wilson Administration would be hounded by accusations of lackluster border security prior to the raid on Columbus and the relatively slow-going of the war with Mexico. In California, the Republicans campaigned heavily on this fear of Mexican encroachment on the California border, regardless of any Mexican factions’ willingness or ability to actually do so. Unexpectedly difficult fighting in the Baja Peninsula, such as a massacre of US troops on an ill-advised raid on the small town of San Ignacio, contributed to a feeling of pessimism with the current administration’s policies regarding the war. Charles Evans Hughes worked closely with the state governor, Hiram Johnson, and earned his endorsement for the presidency. This was just enough to flip California to the Republicans, and Charles Evans Hughes was elected president.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In Germany, Arthur Zimmerman decides against sending the infamous telegram, as the United States was busy enough with Mexico that Germany didn’t need to throw it’s hat in the ring. Besides, with most of the American war material being diverted to fight the Mexicans, the Entente was beginning to feel the squeeze, and Germany was beginning to gain the upper hand. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Prior to the capitulation of Mexico City, and after its month-long siege, a final invitation to surrender was sent to Carranza, but he refused. The battle, consisting of constant aerial bombardment and brutal house-to-house fighting, would end with the deaths of President Carranza and his best men after they were intercepted while trying to escape the city. The new President, President Zapata, immediately called for a cease-fire with the Americans. At the peace conference on August 20, 1917, Mexico agreed to cede the Baja Peninsula and Sonora to the United States and pay reparations, in return for the United States agreeing to help quell insurrection against the new Mexican government should help be requested.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Despite President Hughes personal wish to aid the Entente, the American public and Congress were fairly tired of war, especially after the brutal Battle of Mexico City. Material aid resumed to Britain and France, but by this point it was far, far too late.[/FONT]
[FONT="]End of the Great War[/FONT]
[FONT="]After the Central Powers victory in the Great War, and the signing of the Treaty of Fussen on February 10th, 1919, Germany stood astride Europe and Africa a grand colossus; she found herself with a bevy of client states in Eastern Europe, puppetized Belgium, and a brand spankin’-new “Mittelafrika”, forged out of Belgian and French possessions. Austria-Hungary found herself with some nice Italian property, even. Sure, Tsingtao and German New Guinea were split between the Japanese and the Australians, but they were hardly profitable.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Alas, all was not well for the Ottoman Empire; in exchange for peace with Britain, the Ottoman Empire was more-or-less thrown under the bus with regards to the British camped out in Baghdad and Damascus, as well as the Hashemite Kingdom of Arabia established with British support. This Was Noted.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Despite their victory, the war-weary German population was in no mood to intervene in the Russian Civil War beyond a token small expeditionary force in support of the Whites, and in any event operations in the east was geared more towards policing their new Polish, White Ruthenian, Baltic, and Ukrainian (especially here) client states rather than start yet another war.[/FONT]
[FONT="]France only just barely staved off civil war in the wake of German victory, and only then due to the fall of the civilian government and the military coup that instituted martial law nationwide. She was lucky enough to maintain the majority of her colonial empire[/FONT]
[FONT="]Britain was lucky enough to not fall into the same fate that had befallen France, but the loss of the war was shattering to the nation regardless, both economically and morally. Her dominions continued to assert greater levels of autonomy, and Ireland descended into civil war outright. South Africa in particular is furious with the loss of German South-West Africa, forcibly returned to the Germans in exchange for acceptance of the loss of Tsingtao and New Guinea. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Italy plunges into a short but nasty civil war in the immediate aftermath of the peace, and emerges as a fascist state using similar iconography and rhetoric as OTL’s, but is notable for having the fortune/misfortune of being run by a *Fascist party that is a hell of a lot more competent and more pragmatic than OTLs, fascism in this TL being much more of a technocratic party with nationalist imagery and rhetoric.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In China, Yuan Shikai manages to hold onto life for a little while longer. As a result, the Beiyang government is able to further consolidate it’s control over northern China. By the time of Yuan Shikai’s death in 1920, the Beiyang clique under Duan Qirai is militarily and politically strong enough that they are able to field a “southern expedition” to crush the KMT and the various warlords operating there.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The Roaring Twenties (As of 1925)[/FONT]
[FONT="]Germany is an economic and cultural powerhouse, enriched by the wealth pouring in from the Mittelafrikan colonies and reparations. Behind New York and London, Berlin is one of the financial capitals of the world. Things are not as good as they seem, though: there is a sense of imperial overreach in her colonies in Africa, as well as the steady trickle of dead bodies coming in from the Ukraine, where a Soviet-backed insurgency in the south and east has produced major headaches. Amongst more war-weary circles (such as the SDP), there is some talk of withdrawing outright.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In Austria-Hungary, the so-called United States of Greater Austria plan is expected to be implemented during the 1927 Ausgleich, to expected significant Hungarian opposition. Although it is designed to alleviate ethnic tensions within the empire, many fear that they may only inflame them.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The Ottoman Empire, recognizing the great need for a modern military, has been viciously modernizing and industrializing at a rapid pace, ostensibly to combat the British and/or the Soviets in a future war. Interestingly, it has done so with a relative lack of German assistance, instead preferring to do business with French and American businesses.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In France, although the military government stepped down and civilian administration resumed at the end of “hostilities” in 1921, France is not a happy camper. Political extremism (on both sides of the political spectrum) rules the day, and the franc is inflating at a frightening rate; it would look depressingly familiar to someone familiar with the Weimar Republic. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Italy, at the behest of the ruling *fascist party, has been undergoing a transformation of society far greater than that which occurred under OTL. Among other things, there is a far greater effort to educate the citizenry and fix the high illiteracy rate that Italy suffered. Italy’s program of rearmament is progressing at a far more reasonable pace, and with better priorities in mind. Among those priorities is preparedness for a long, hard total war in the near future, and supporting *fascist groups abroad, particularly in France and Latin America.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Speaking of Argentina, an alternate National Fascist Party has been growing in popularity (thanks to Italian support), feeding off of the Radical’s administration (particularly aid given to the Soviet Union), economic discontent and American domination. It is growing in influence within the military, sparking rumors of a possible coup against the Yrigoyen administration.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Britain, for the time being, has been doing its best to counter German influence in Africa. Of note is South Africa, which has been gradually attempting to exercise further and further autonomy; secessionist sentiment amongst the Boers is high, especially when the Afrikaner-nationalist National Party wins a majority government in the 1920 General Elections (the Unionist and South African Parties are seen to be more friendly with the “defeatist” Great Britain). [/FONT]
[FONT="]China remains dominated by the Beiyang Government, and is undergoing ferocious industrialization to attempt to stave off foreign influence within China proper, especially against the British, the Japanese, and the Soviets. Of note are their increasingly close ties to neighboring French Indochina, and by extension, France itself, and French advisors are prominent in their modernization campaign.[/FONT]
[FONT="]After Lenin’s death in 1924, a brief power struggle ensued in the Soviet Union, and Nikolai Bukharin emerged victorious (Stalin was removed from his possession of General Secretary, as per Lenin’s wishes). Under him, the Soviet Union has been continuing with a modified form of the New Economic Plan, modified to take into account the necessities of industrialization. It’s not the nicest place in the world to live, but it’s a hell of a lot nicer (and a hell of a lot better run) than Stalin’s USSR of OTL. They’re currently supporting Communist partisans in Ukraine and White Ruthenia.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The United States under the Hughes Administration has been preoccupied with settling their new Mexican territories and reversing some of the more regressive social policies the Wilson Administration instated (segregation, et al). The United States has been experiencing an economic boom, although perhaps to a lesser extent than OTL. Of interest is their relationship with Liberia; the slightly less racist than most Hughes has been a champion of establishing a greater American presence in the country (chiefly for the iron ore and rubber), and Liberia’s economy has been becoming increasingly linked to their progenitor’s. [/FONT]
[FONT="]The French Intervention, The Ausgleich and the Economic Collapse (1925-1930) [/FONT]
[FONT="]Since the end of the Great War, France had been placed under severe arms limitations in order, much like Germany was OTL. However, beginning in 1923 alarming reports had been trickling in to German intelligence agencies that France was covertly rearming in defiance of the postwar agreements. While the vast majority of intelligence in hindsight turned out to be either misinterpreted or outright false, the German leadership (seeking to show off their strength, field test the latest tanks and planes, and hasten reparations payments from the “obstructionist” France) began to draw up plans to strike at France and demonstrate who the boss was on the continent.[/FONT]
[FONT="]On the first of May, 1924, France was suddenly invaded in a combined arms operation that, in short order, found German soldiers marching through Paris. Although Germany justified their invasion as a means to enforce France’s arms restrictions, it soon became apparent that no arms were being manufactured (an Iraq-WMD scenario), and that good men on both sides of the Rhine had died for a lie. A massive scandal erupted in the Reichstag , anti-establishment riots raged throughout the Reich, and the ruling DKP was ousted from power in a historic general election. The new SDP-FVP government withdrew from France and, in a controversial gesture of apology, lowered the price of reparations.The German Reich’s newest government would seek to severely limit the power of the aristocracy, institute socio-economic reforms, and limit military adventurism. The German populace as a whole was now exceptionally tired of military interventions in foreign countries. The insurgencies in south and east Ukraine increased in intensity following the election, in an attempt to get German forces to withdraw. Many in Germany are open to a withdrawal, and covert discussions with select partisan groups are initiated. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Britain, outraged by this flagrant and unprovoked attack on their ally, withdrew their diplomatic staff and threatened war unless Germany withdrew or provided evidence of French rearmament; public support of a new war against Germany so soon after the old one, though, was fairly low. After the German general election which saw the left swept into power and withdraw from France, however, normal if cooler relations resumed.[/FONT]
[FONT="]South Africa, for the past few elections, has been dominated by Hertzog’s National Party, feeding off of discontent with British rule (compounded by Britain’s loss in the war) and desire to act more independently. Italian influence on the National Party is growing, as Hertzog was reported to be impressed with the Italian’s transition from European backwater to rising power on the continent, and hopes that the National Party could do the same. Outright independence from Britain is the ultimate goal, be it peacefully or militarily.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This exhaustion on the part of the German people would spell doom for Austria-Hungary. At the 1927 Ausgleich, nasty disputes over the USGA plan results in the Transleithanian portions of the empire outright seceding from the union in a brief but nasty civil war. The Hapsburgs flee the chaos to Germany and plead for aid, but it was too little, too late. By the end of the fighting, an outright fascistic branch-off of the Christian Social Party similar to the OTL Patriotic Front, but much more revanchist, anti-Protestant German, and anti-Hapsburg (the Hapsburgs, having fled the chaos of the Transleithanian Secession, are seen as cowards who abandoned Austria in her hour of need) were in control of the rump “Austrian State”. Seeing an opportunity, the Italian National Party sends “diplomats” to the scarred nation…..[/FONT]
[FONT="]In the wake of the German withdrawal, the humiliated, economically destitute, and revenge-hungry France elected a revanchist, anti-Semitic, increasingly anti-British, militarist, and monarchist offshoot of Action Francaise, the “Parti National Restauration” (commonly shortened to “Parna”) in 1928, which promised a restoration of French glory and a return to “traditional Catholic values”, headed by a charismatic “leader”. Covert rearmament, alongside a transformation of French society along Parna lines, commences. A large plurality of the rearmament takes place in French Africa, away from prying German eyes.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The Soviet Union condemned the German invasion, but took no hostile action against Germany or her client states (officially, anyway). Industrialization was progressing relatively smoothly, but the Red Army was in no shape to face the Deutsches Heer at this point.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In the United States, the White House has reverted to Southern Democrat control under President Davis, but a Republican-controlled Congress has blocked him from re-instituting segregation at the federal level. It is a very pro-business, laissez-faire nation, perhaps moreso than OTL at the time.. That would be a contributing factor to the coming economic crisis.[/FONT]
[FONT="]As China continues to industrialize and modernize, Italian-supported fascist groups preaching complete independence from Western (and Japanese) powers and Chinese hegemony in Asia begin to grow in popularity, as they greatly exaggerate the threat the by-now mostly democratic Japan presented to their nation. The Soviet Union’s control over Outer Mongolia, as well as their covert funding of communist guerillas in the Chinese hinterlands, is also a large target.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Japan, as stated previously, has remained on the path to true democracy, and their rule over Korea and Taiwan has been much lighter-handed than OTL. However, they are still a relatively militaristic society compared to most of the western nations, and they are keenly aware of the rhetoric regarding Korea coming out of the Middle Kingdom.
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[FONT="]In January of 1928, the American stock market crashed (similar causes relative to OTL, but the lack of a Smoot-Hawley tariff lessened the impact a bit), sending the already-shaken world into an economic depression that would be later termed as “The Great Slump”. This would be one of the major factors in the Parnas coming to power.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In 1929, a military coup (supported by the National Fascist Party) overthrows the Yrigoyen administration and announces new elections; however, much like Italy, butterflies ensure that these coup plotters, executers, and subsequent rulers are much more technocratic and far-sighted in nature, and the fraudulent elections ensure that the National Fascist Party is swept into power. As the new fascist government begins its attempts to salvage the Argentinean economy and modernize the military, covert plots against their neighbors commence.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The South African Secession, the Persian Civil War, and the Gran Chaco War (1930-1937)[/FONT]
[FONT="]The 1930s could be seen as a prelude to the devastation that the world would be plunged into, as various relatively low-level conflicts and disputes simmered and burned all throughout the decade until the outbreak of the Second World War.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In 1931, the British Commonwealth was shocked when the Union of South Africa, long dominated by the National Party through gerrymandering and fearmongering, declared independence from the British Empire and formed a republic. While the new republic claimed to have no desire to act antagonistically towards Britain, it also had no desire to act friendly. Almost immediately, the French and Italian governments recognized the new nation, in no small part due to the fascistic elements in the National Party and desires on German territory in Africa. Great Britain was able to do very little, and reluctantly recognized it.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In South America, a dispute over oil rights in the Chaco region sparks a war in 1934 between Bolivia and an alliance of Paraguay and Uruguay, whom are supplied by the fascist Argentina. Bolivia’s initial success and potential victory over Paraguay by 1935 prompted Argentina to declare war on Bolivia, ostensibly over Bolivia’s attempted “annexation” of Paraguay. Argentina’s liberation of Paraguay from Bolivian forces and Bolivia’s surrender to Argentina in 1936 prompts the Brazilians to adopt a more progressively more aggressive stance against it. Paraguay, while initially grateful to their neighbor for their assistance in liberating them, has found that the Argentinien date for withdrawal tends to keep sliding down the line.[/FONT]
[FONT="]So far, events in Spain have proceeded mostly similar to OTL, with the fortunate exception of a lack of a Spanish Civil War. However, the rickety Spanish Republic remains plagued with political violence and economic instability, and it is really only a matter of time before something emerges as a catalyst.[/FONT]
[FONT="]In Persia, fighting between monarchist forces backed by the Ottomans and communist forces backed by the Soviets broke out when the Shah attempted to crack down on all overtly left-wing political organizations in the country after a general strike was announced. By1937, Persia is in a state of civil war between the Persian Empire and the self-proclaimed “Socialist Republic of Iran”, with both sides covertly supported with supplies and “volunteer” from their respective benefactors. The Persian Civil War eventually spilled over Persia’s borders and involved ethnic minorities in both the Ottoman Empire and Soviet Union (as well as flare-ups in Iraq), causing crackdowns in each state. Tensions between the two countries increase as weapons from the other were found in the hands of “terrorist organizations.” [/FONT]
[FONT="]The World on the Eve of War, 1938[/FONT]
[FONT="]The German Empire, isolationist and non-interventionist after the failed intervention in France, has come out of it’s military shell and begun to remilitarize in the face of a revanchist France that it had a hand in creating. While it’s factories churn out the latest in war machines (and the Heer is still one of the most formidable in Europe), it is not certain whether it will be enough to overcome the combined “Axis” of France, Italy, and Austria; in addition, it is uncertain what direction the British Empire will go, if it will become involved at all.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The French State, by now, is very recognizable to someone familiar with OTL’s Nazi Germany. It has managed to remilitarize, bolstered by their colonies men and factories. It’s military has transformed from one of the weakest on the continent to one of the most powerful, and it is ready for round two. It has aims of permanently [/FONT]
[FONT="]The technocratic Italian Empire has thrown it’s lot in with the French State, having been promised British possessions in East Africa, as well as the (so-far uninvaded) Ethiopia. It is allied to Austria strictly out of convenience, and plan to "renegotiate" Austria ownership of those Italian territories "temporarily administered" by Austria at war's end.
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[FONT="]The Austrian Empire is formidable in it’s own right, but it is very much the junior partner in the European Axis. It has grandiose aims of knocking the Germans out of the war quickly, and then turn it’s attention back to conquering the rest of it’s former empire.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The Ottoman Empire, while paying lip service to it’s informal alliance with Italy, France, and Austria, is more focused on restoring it’s empire and, perhaps, enlarging it with British possessions (Iraq and Syria, perhaps), and establishing Persia as a puppet.[/FONT]
[FONT="]China is perhaps one of the greatest success stories in Asia; in a generation, it has transformed from a backwards playground for other imperial powers to a modern, *fascist industrialized state to match it’s arch-nemesis, Japan. It has machinations on reclaiming Korea and Outer Mongolia, as well as perhaps Tibet and, depending on how the coming storm in Europe plays out, India and Burma. Of course, the by-now fascistic Beiyang government is hardly the most realistic and level-headed of rulers, and perhaps overestimates it’s armies, as well as their ability to keep their population down with the threat of foreign invasion.[/FONT]
[FONT="]While Britain finds it's former allies form of government distasteful, it still remains unconvinced that siding with the Germans is any better. However, they have pledged to the Japanese that they would come to their aid in the event of war with China.
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[FONT="]The Soviet Union, despite it’s obvious political orientation, has signed a tentative non-aggression pact with Germany and Japan, promising to set aside their respective differences until the situation is “stabilized”. It continues to provide aid to the Persian communists, who have begun to gain the upper hand in the civil war.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Japan has seen the smoke on the horizon, and by now is ready to counterrattack
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[FONT="]The United States, under President Huey Long, has been pursuing a more aggressive foreign policy (especially in Liberia, where an American “peacekeeping force” has been stationed in order to protect American economic interests, but is increasingly becoming a military of it’s own), coupled with a New-Deal-esque economic policy meant to pull the United States out of the Slump. Military spending is increasing, particularly to deal with a prospective war in Europe, but also in anticipation of some conflict in……[/FONT]
[FONT="]……South America, where Argentina has been growing increasingly aggressive towards it’s neighbors (especially Chile), as well as announcing it’s intention to reclaim the Falkland Islands from Britain. In the case of Chile, it seeks to “liberate” the people from it’s “socialist” governance (IE, the Radical Party), as well as to gain some Pacific coastline. It’s cautious about provoking any war with the United States, and is only hoping for some sort of incident on the part of Chile. While it has been the beneficiary of Italian military advisors and equipment, it has no desire to become entangled in the European war.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This is a strenuous peace, and it is likely to break any day now.[/FONT]
