Madam President: Hillary Clinton in 2008
- Thread starter hcallega
- Start date
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Both of these candidates will have weaknesses to populist attack when the financial crisis hits -- Romney, with his Bain experience, and Clinton, for her husband's financial deregulations. Whether this has political effects...
this is gonna be awesomeLong, Hot Summer
The long and hot summer months are where elections are won or lost. It is these crucial months that candidates and campaigns make their case to the voters, and where the decisions that most impact the November elections are made. Historically, general elections did not begin until after the nominating conventions in the middle of the summer. But with earlier and earlier primary schedules, the importance of the conventions has become less and less important. 2008 was the perfect example. Both parties’ nominations were wrapped up by March. Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney began the grueling general election campaign while snow was still on the ground. Speeches, ads, and fundraising dominated both candidates’ calendars. Nonetheless, the summer months were crucial to the campaigns. As independent and swing voters began to tune in, the candidates’ began to rev into high gear.
After winning the Republican Party’s nomination, Mitt Romney was faced with the difficult task of reconciling his moderate views with the GOP’s conservative ideology. It would prove to be a difficult and often frustrating task. Romney had already moved to the right on abortion, gun control, and gay marriage prior to his campaign for the Republican nomination. His views on foreign policy, the economy, and the budget were also in step with a majority of Republican voters. However, Romney maintained centrist views on several issues, most notably health care, the environment, and entitlements. The trick was marketing his views to the electorate at-large. This meant deemphasizing his right-ward shift on social issues while focusing on his centrist positions on other issues. Romney made the economy the center piece to his campaign, and argued that “President Hillary Clinton will mean a return of tax-and-spend liberalism. I promise right now that a President Romney will cut your taxes, cut spending, and get our economy moving forward.” Romney began a 50-state tour in April, emphasizing that “The President needs to represent every American, so I think it’s important that I campaign in every state.” The low-key campaign of the Republican nominee was intended to paint the picture of a typical American, not a wealthy corporate raider. Romney spent most of his time in the crucial swing states of the mid-West and emphasized his father’s role as Governor of Michigan and as an auto industry executive. A high-point in his campaign was a June trip to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to receive the endorsement of Nancy Reagan. This was an important win for the campaign, as Romney had struggled to evoke an image as the successor to Ronald Reagan’s legacy.
While Romney looked to solidify his base and unite the Republican Party, Hillary Clinton attempted to soften her image among voters who saw her as too aggressive and uncompromising. Clinton campaigned with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and other Democratic Party leaders in an attempt to portray a united Democratic Party. Senator Clinton also devoted a great deal of time to fundraising in an attempt to out-spend her wealthy opponent. Clinton’s base of support in the primaries, women and blue-collar Democrats, were also an important part of her general election coalition. Her opposition to NAFTA and support for “reinvigorating America’s middle class” became important elements of her general election campaign. Clinton also reached out to African-Americans and Hispanics, who represented a growing segment of the electorate. One of Clinton’s first post-primary interviews was with Oprah Winfrey, a prominent supporter of Barack Obama. Clinton appeared genuine and concerned about the state of America’s economy, and held back on criticizing her opponent. Her relatively positive campaign was meant to reflect her husband’s approach in 1992. Instead of attacking Romney, Clinton focused on the progressively worsening American economy and promised to “take action to stop the decline in our middle class, and to ensure that everyone gets a fair shot at the American dream.”
Throughout the summer, polls showed a virtual tie between Clinton and Romney. Voters were split in a fashion similar to 2000 and 2004. Voters most concerned with the economy, health care, and the environment supported Clinton. Those focused on the debt, taxes, and foreign policy polled in favor of Romney. Despite the closeness of the race, the Clinton campaign remained optimistic. With the economy continuing to decline and the recent collapse of Bear Stearns, Romney was forced to deal with his own past as an entrepreneur. The Clinton campaign refused to go negative on Romney’s past, but that didn’t stop their surrogates in organized labor from going on the offensive. Romney countered by arguing that he was a “job-creator” who saved many profitable companies from bankruptcy. The war of words between Romney and organized labor allowed Clinton to rise above the battle and appear more Presidential. During July, she traveled to Iraq as part of a Congressional mission and congratulated General David Petraues for “turning around a war that looked like a lost cause.” The Romney campaign in turn jumped on Clinton for “admitting that she was wrong, dead wrong, about the surge. Now that we’re on our way to seeing a stable Iraq, Hillary Clinton wants us to forget what she said just a year ago.”
The heat of the summer campaign manifested itself in media speculation over running-mates. Both campaigns had remained largely mum on the selection process and did their best to remain leak free. Romney tasked campaign manager Beth Myers to lead up the search committee, shifting day-to-day operations to former field director Josh Ginsberg. The Clinton campaign tasked deputy campaign manager Mike Henry to do the same. Both campaigns put a great deal of weight on the selection of a “VEEP,” largely due to their own candidates’ short comings. For Romney, the goal was to make a choice that appealed to Southerners, social conservatives, and Evangelicals. Clinton sought someone who could either energize the grassroots or help consolidate support among independents. The tough part was selecting which area to focus on.
The Romney team initially came up with a long-list of potential choices that were presented to the presumptive nominee in mid-July. The initial list was heavy on Senators and military men, as the assumption was that Romney would want someone to complement his strengths as a Governor and businessman. However, several names were quickly eliminated by the upper echelon of the campaign. Examples included Senator Sam Brownback (“too out there on social issues”), Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson (“it’ll seem like we’re trying to simply counter Hillary”) and General Tommy Franks (“Pre-Pretaues Iraq equals too toxic”). After conversations with Romney, Myers presented a short-list of eight names that Romney would speak with, would be vetted, and then selected. This list included Senator John Thune, Governor Tim Pawlenty, Governor Mark Sanford, General James Jones, Governor Bobby Jindal, former Congressman Rob Portman, Governor Haley Barbour, and Governor Sarah Palin. The first step in the final process was to vet the potential selections. The “heavy-vetting” process was handled by a D.C. law firm over the course of two weeks. Governors Palin and Barbour were eliminated by this process. Palin was seen as too inexperienced on foreign policy issues, while Barbour’s background as a D.C. lobbyist was a major liability. The next step was for Romney to meet the remaining choices. This process eliminated General Jones and Governor Jindal, both of whom stated they had no interest in the number two spot at the time. This left Senator Thune, Congressman Portman, and Governors Pawlenty and Sanford. Romney admired each man, and was deeply divided over the choice. He eventually eliminated Portman because of his connections to the unpopular Bush Administration and Pawlenty because of his lack of charisma. The final selection was between Senator John Thune and Governor Mark Sanford. Both were strong conservatives who had won upset victories over Democratic incumbents. However, Thune was viewed as a Republican insider while Sanford had a record as a maverick. This drove Romney into finally selecting Sanford. With the unpopularity of the Washington establishment, Romney hoped the South Carolina Governor would provide the support necessary to win over independents and conservative Democrats.
The VP selection process for the Clinton campaign was far shorter and more straightforward. Senator Clinton was involved in the process from day one and knew many of the potential nominees well. Her parameters for her running-mate were simple: they needed to provide geographic balance to the ticket, have a background of loyalty to the Clinton-wing of the Democratic Party, and they needed to have strong support either among the party’s base or among independents. The only exception to this was Senator Barack Obama, who quickly denied any interest (much to Clinton's relief). A long list was whittled down to a half-dozen names: Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, General Wesley Clark, Senator John Edwards, and Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio. Much like Romney, Clinton met with many of these candidates personally. Problematic tax returns eliminated Richardson, while rumors of infidelity knocked Edwards out of the running. Controversy over his role in the Yugoslavian conflict made Clark too much of a liability. Rendell’s big city politician feel was an issue, as was Strickland’s opposition to abortion, though these elements failed to eliminate either candidate outright. The favorites for the selection were Bayh and Rendell. Clinton called both for a second interview, before finally settling on Bayh due to his strong support in a traditionally Republican state and his centrist views. With this selection, both candidates had chosen running-mates. As the conventions neared, it was clear that both campaigns were prepared for a long and trying election.
Orville_third
Banned
Sanford was an interesting choice. Of course, his personal life may haunt him...
With increased scrutiny from being the VP candidate it could be revealed sooner.
If it is revealed it would be a particularly nasty October surprise, that's for sure.
the affair didn't begin until 2008 - if he was being heavily vetted by Romney there's a good chance he would either hold off or not have the affair
Maybe, maybe not. It was during an economic development trip to South America when the affair truly began, and being all the way in South America means he probably feels 'safer' having the affair even with the heavy vetting.
Guess it just comes down to whether or not he's smart enough not to have it, and if then (if he isn't) whether or not he can keep his tracks hidden. Unlike Edwards I can't imagine him bringing her onto the campaign.
True, but he says that though they met in 2001 they never had sex until 2008
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Meh, I'd give a Sanford campaign affair plausibility, but I don't think it'd be necessary...
I hope not. A Republican VP candidate plagued with infidelity rumors, coupled with an economic crisis that came about due to Republican policies. That should definitely sweep America's "Iron Lady" into office by a landslide. Let's hope she's reelected in 2012, and let's also hope she takes care of bin Laden, the same way as OTL, perhaps earlier.
Nice TL, you got yourself here HC, Although I personally would have liked to see your Kerry '04 TL continue Hillary v. Romney in '08 shows to not to disappoint. Don't really have any disagreements except for Hilldawg's choice of a running mate. You state in the update that through her pick she is trying to achieve regional balance; but if WWC voters are the driving force behind her campaign success ITTL Hillary may not have the need to shore up Rust Belt voters by going after Biden, Rendell, Bayh and Strickland. She might decide to launch a Southwestern Strategy by either going with Richardson or other western progressives like Bill Ritter of Colorado. But with Romney consolidating the Mormon vote in those states, it might not be worth the fight and making sure Hillary's Rust Belt is properly fastened with one of the aforementioned. Even though I thick Strickland is the better choice.