If Mexico enjoys a brief oil boom as a result of a prolonged Gulf War, that might affect NAFTA, illegal immigration, etc. issues in the 1990s.
Lines in the Sand: A History of the Gulf War
- Thread starter NeoDesperado
- Start date
If Mexico enjoys a brief oil boom as a result of a prolonged Gulf War, that might affect NAFTA, illegal immigration, etc. issues in the 1990s.
The thing to consider here is that the decision to close the strait serves two purposes: it prevents naval forces from moving through the area, and it stops all shipping traffic. For a single night's work and the cost of some mines, Yemen has the world's leaders screaming at their navies to drop everything and open the Red Sea yesterday and forcing a diversion of resources and effort that would otherwise be focused mostly on Iraq. It's easily fixable, but it's one more distraction that the Coalition doesn't need right now.
As for simply unloading shipping and troops in Saudi Arabia, the Americans are trying to be respectful and stay clear of the Holy Cities, limiting their main presence to the eastern parts of the country. There's going to be guaranteed issues if columns of Abrams tanks start driving through Mecca on their way east or south. It makes the situation far more complicated, but the King took a calculated risk in allowing in Western troops, so in showing the Saudis similar courtesy they're forced to unload and deploy the heavy units through the eastern ports. (Which of course isn't going to happen until the strait gets cleared and secured.)
In regard to anti-ship striking power, the Yemeni navy consists of nothing heavier than patrol boats, and the only credible threat from their air force comes from 45 Su-20s and 11 F-5s which I honestly see as being completely unprepared for making attack runs on warships beyond cannon strafing or lobbing unguided bombs and hoping for the best. That leaves surface-to-surface missiles, of which Yemen had woefully few of OTL around this period. However, the months of preparation may have seen a few shipments of Silkworms and Exocets make their way from Iraq...
Doubtlessly so, but that's sadly beyond my immediate scope of knowledge.
Doesn't this depend on which way the forces are coming from? Those from the Med, Europe or the Atlantic are going to be restricted but forces from units in the Pacific can go directly to the Gulf. True the bulk of the heavy ground units will be affected by this as they will probably come from the west. However should be able to get naval support fairly quickly via the Pacific.
Also I think the main ground units fighting the Yemeni are likely to be from Arab/Muslim nations, simply because they must operate near to the holy cities. This is related to the importance of getting Egypt and possibly other such nations on side ASAP.
The problem of course is that if Jordan does join Saddam then any fighting is going to be adjacent to Israel and very likely to overflow into conflict with Israel. If nothing else Saddam might well try and drag Israel into it as in OTL Gulf War to poison western-Arab relations. Its far more likely to be possible if Jordan is an ally, even if as is likely Jordan desperately wants to avoid this. This could be a reason for Jordan to avoid Saddam like the plague because even if Saddam 'wins' Jordan itself is likely to be creamed and its current government and establishment to lose power.
Steve
Regarding the USSR, it's on its way out, but you might want to consider the possibility of people like Yeltsin never coming to power, or having the transition from Union to no Union be somewhat smoother. Without Russia's declaration of independence, some of the former SSRs might be retained.
That's what I was thinking of. Considering how poorly-used those assets were in OTL's Gulf War, loaning them to Yemen to keep up the Red Sea blockade couldn't hurt (the Iraqis).
The New Union Treaty?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Sovereign_States
Some of the board's Soviet-philes make a good case that this was a better alternative to OTL's collapse of the USSR, especially for, say, Central Asia.
If the coup is butterflied away because Gorbachev has brought lots of money into the USSR by prolonging "negotiations" and keeping the crisis going to keep oil prices up, this might actually work.
He wouldnt even need to do that, given Saddam's implusive hubris & the build up time for NATO forces & the fact Saddam would burn the oil-wells rather than lose them.
I go by the rule that anything would've been better than Yeltsin, or at least more sober whilst making policy.
As for the new New Union Treaty that was as much a referendum on Gorbachev’s leadership as anything else. Improved standing for Gorby could butterfly that need, though the Baltic States and Caucasus would still be a major headache.
Essentially he’d be ''pulling a Putin’’ insofar as the Russian/Soviet economy is stabilised by high-energy prices in 1990 rather than 2000, before the collapse of Russian GDP & the Union itself.
It'd only delay them for about as long as it takes for the Egyptian government & top-brass to stop laughing. The Libyan military had gotten it’s arse handed to it by Chad remember.
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Nick P
Donor
Yemen is in a tricky place at this time. North and South only reunited in 1990 and there must be some political fallout from this, although starting a war is generally regarded as good for uniting a country.
They are likely to be the first country to be attacked by the US / Coalition and they can't hold out for long. To clear the sealanes they will want total freedom in the air and pre-emptive attacks on the enemy bases will clear the skies. Recon flights and airstrikes from Diego Garcia will be the first order to deny use of Yemen airbases and to destroy the small Yemeni Air Force as well as any units Iraq may have sent to help in the Straits blockage plan. Yemen's navy will be gone quickly too, probably with help from Delta Force and the USMC in the ports.
The US Navy will also be launching the first carrier raids in this war on Yemen, they may even be closer and more ready to attack than main forces on Diego Garcia or other land bases.
Given that Oman is very pro-British and that the SAS train there, it wouldn't be too much for SAS patrols to sneak across the border to direct the laser-guided bombs on Yemeni airbases. Nice practice for the big show to come in Saudi and Iraq...
What are Turkey doing in all this? Are they with the US or leaning towards the Muslim states?
They are likely to be the first country to be attacked by the US / Coalition and they can't hold out for long. To clear the sealanes they will want total freedom in the air and pre-emptive attacks on the enemy bases will clear the skies. Recon flights and airstrikes from Diego Garcia will be the first order to deny use of Yemen airbases and to destroy the small Yemeni Air Force as well as any units Iraq may have sent to help in the Straits blockage plan. Yemen's navy will be gone quickly too, probably with help from Delta Force and the USMC in the ports.
The US Navy will also be launching the first carrier raids in this war on Yemen, they may even be closer and more ready to attack than main forces on Diego Garcia or other land bases.
Given that Oman is very pro-British and that the SAS train there, it wouldn't be too much for SAS patrols to sneak across the border to direct the laser-guided bombs on Yemeni airbases. Nice practice for the big show to come in Saudi and Iraq...
What are Turkey doing in all this? Are they with the US or leaning towards the Muslim states?
The Omanis also have a few scores to settle from ~30 years previously (Dhofar, etc.), so would probably be more than happy to do the Yemeni government a bad turn...
That's basically my thinking on the matter in terms of deployment zones. Right now the Western naval forces and any ship-bound reinforcements are stuck in the eastern Mediterranean until the strait gets cleared before they can proceed any further, but the USN can call in battle groups from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. There's Diego Garcia for basing heavy air units, and for ground forces they can bring in the III Marine Expeditionary Force from Okinawa. They have a few options to work with.
I'm honestly still trying to decide how things play out in the Soviet Union by the end of the year. There's a couple of different scenarios I could go with, but I need to look further into the political situation before making a verdict. I honestly wouldn't mind switching brains with Pellegrino Shots for a bit when I get to that point.
He wouldnt even need to do that, given Saddam's implusive hubris & the build up time for NATO forces & the fact Saddam would burn the oil-wells rather than lose them.
Right, Saddam is more than happy to burn down the toy store if he can't get his shiny new bike.
I go by the rule that anything would've been better than Yeltsin, or at least more sober whilst making policy.
As for the new New Union Treaty that was as much a referendum on Gorbachev’s leadership as anything else. Improved standing for Gorby could butterfly that need, though the Baltic States and Caucasus would still be a major headache.
Essentially he’d be ''pulling a Putin’’ insofar as the Russian/Soviet economy is stabilised by high-energy prices in 1990 rather than 2000, before the collapse of Russian GDP & the Union itself.
It'd only delay them for about as long as it takes for the Egyptian government & top-brass to stop laughing. The Libyan military had gotten it’s arse handed to it by Chad remember.
Haha, sorry, I know a few of you are hoping for Libya to join the fun as well, but from everything I've read they're simply in no condition to do much besides shake their fist at the NATO fleets.
Very good points. As we'll see in coming updates, the Coalition's priorities are stopping Iraq's advance while at the same time clearing the strait and maintaining local force superiority to get troops and supplies through for the Gulf. The Bab el Mendab *has* to be dealt with before the US can think about counter-attacking the Iraqis. Until then, yep, Yemen is about to get a lot of attention.
Turkey's in an interesting position regarding the Gulf states, I'll be covering what they've been up to in the next installment.
We'll be looking at Oman a bit as well; getting the use of their bases and ports will go a long way in putting Air Force and RAF units within easy striking distance of Yemen.
Everyone is wanting a piece of their neighbors right now, and old (and some not so old) grudges are getting called out into the open again.
Here's an idea re: the USSR:
The increased oil money from the prolonged Gulf crisis is used to fund a gradual transition from state socialism instead of the "shock therapy" that in Russia at least caused so much havoc.
Even if the USSR crumbles per OTL, there might be some positive butterflies in that quarter from the situation.
The increased oil money from the prolonged Gulf crisis is used to fund a gradual transition from state socialism instead of the "shock therapy" that in Russia at least caused so much havoc.
Even if the USSR crumbles per OTL, there might be some positive butterflies in that quarter from the situation.
I guess going the Cape route is not an option/would take too long/would excessively strain logistics?
King Thomas
Banned
If Saddam took Mecca and based his military HQ there, it would be unbombable by Western forces because of the religious implications.
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King Thomas
If Saddam got that far he would be doing bloody amazing. However the allies then simply cut the supply lines across hundreds of miles of desert between that HQ and his resource bases in Iraq.
Steve
Hopefully (for him and for his soldiers) Saddam wouldn't be stupid enough to order a cross-desert march against Mecca, especially since the real prizes are in the Eastern Province and that's where the war with the U.S. will be fought. Leaving Mecca to the rump al-Sauds or the Jordanians would be the smart thing to do.
Of course, just because something is stupid doesn't mean Saddam won't do it.
Of course, just because something is stupid doesn't mean Saddam won't do it.
With the wider war, Senator Sam Nunn will probably vote for intervention. From what I read, his voting against it IOTL is one of the reasons he didn't run for president in 1992. With the larger crisis, someone with foreign policy credentials would probably have an edge in the Democratic primaries.
Definitely a thought; it's one of the scenarios I have kicking around for the USSR.
Taking the Cape route is certainly an option if all else fails, but it's going to take transport ships an extra 3 weeks to make the trip around Africa instead of cutting through the Mediterranean. Of course, if there are any setbacks on the strait clearance, CENTCOM will need to make a choice on whether to stick with the northern route through Suez and hope the delays aren't worse than going south around the Cape.
In a world where the Iraqis have decent supply and logistics and the West decides to abandon Saudi Arabia to its fate, it'd be well within Saddam's tactics to shield his forces by placing them in close proximity to holy sites.
At the risk of minor spoilers, I can guarantee that we're not going to see Iraqi troops in Mecca or Medina in this war.
I might be able to go into the 92 political landscape somewhat for the epilogue portion, but it's another area I have next to no knowledge about.