Japanese Atom Bomb 1945

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by rowmaster, Jun 10, 2006.

  1. rowmaster One of Those Guys

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    The Japanese had two seperate Atomic Programs in the Second World War, as all military programs were divided there one was an Army one and a Navy Program. The Army program was destroyed durring the Firebombing of Japan, it was still stuck trying to find a way to seperate the Uranium. The Navy program though... Was based in Korea and had much more aid invested in it. Infact they got to the level that according to some sources they detonated a test explosion (About 2 Kilotons) in Modern North Korea on August 12th 1945, two days before the surrender. They were THAT close! What if they had started there program a year earlier, or if the Navy and Army had been able to set aside there differences and the Bomb had been ready in August 1945. Japan wouldnt surrender if they had a few Bombs... What could a Japanese Bomb in '45 do?
     
  2. NFR Kanadskiy Namestnik

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    I would very much like to see your sources of Japan having a test bomb in '45. They had insufficient theoretical background for it (no, Yukawa's theories are not close to enough... with modern supercomputers we can use his sort to simulate up to Iodine... a long, long way from Uranium), and not even close to enough engineering.

    Building the Bomb is not trivial. Both Soviet Union and France took longer, and both had headstarts, spies, a much superior scientific/ engineering establishment, and/ or German scientists.
     
  3. rowmaster One of Those Guys

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    there was a show on the History International Channel
     
  4. Amerigo Vespucci Not lurking since Dec. 2002

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    History channel shows are designed to provoke response. That's why they show shows about UFOs and the like. This is on that par.
     
  5. rowmaster One of Those Guys

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    Ok... So it never happened.

    What would it take for it to occur?
     
  6. NFR Kanadskiy Namestnik

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    A lot more money, resource and technical expertise than Japan had at that point.
     
  7. NFR Kanadskiy Namestnik

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    Actually, I must correct myself... Yukawa's work in particle physics wouldn't have been sufficient at all as I don't believe we can calculate reaction rates from meson bonds today. I was thinking of something else.

    It appears that Japan had even less theoretical basis than I thought.
     
  8. CalBear Your Ursus arctos californicus Moderator Moderator

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    About 20 years of research. (Remember, it took the Soviets, who had stolen almost the entire American design 4 years to detonate a device, and that was AFTER they knew it could be done.)
    A High Command that wasn't stuck on the idea that Elan outweighed technology. (What? A superbomb? No we will just send out half trained fools to crash their planes into American Ships!)
    No American Submarines sinking anything that even looks like a ship.
    No B-29 Raids.
    No USSR attack on August 10, 1945.
    No Elona Gay.
    No Bock's Car.
    No Trinity.
    No Fermi.
    No Oppenheimer.

    In other words ASB's.

    Gotta watch out for some of that History Channel stuff. It's almost as Alternate History as stuff here on the board.
     
  9. Amerigo Vespucci Not lurking since Dec. 2002

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    Without ASBs, you'd really need a pre-1900 POD. Something that averts Japan from the militaristic path.
     
  10. NFR Kanadskiy Namestnik

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    That's not quite true. What was stolen from the American project was not used as blueprint, but rather as a sort of guideline. Soviet scientists and engineers had to solve all the engineering problems and develop all the theories from scratch. Admittedly it is a big advantage, to know most of the blind alleys, but Kurchatov, Khariton, Sakharov, Kapitza and co. on had many of the right ideas. Unlike Japan, Soviet Union actually had the theoretical background for this.

    Of course this changes nothing regarding Japanese inability to develop a bomb, and if they had obtained one by an act of infernal intervention, of delivering it.
     
  11. Gremlin Member

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    Ok, lets say they did somehow have a nuke - maybe the Enola Gay drop is unsuccesful or intercepted or malfunctions and they pick up one on the cheap!

    what would be there strategic choices for using it?

    * Okinawa/Iwo Jima
    * Submarine strike on West coast
    * use against Invasion fleet
    * use against Invasion army
     
  12. Derek Jackson Member

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    Imagine that some time in 1900 there are brilliant phyisists in Japan who gain influence. Suppose they have incredible luck and by July 1945 a nuke test works.

    Suppose further (possibly even less likely) they produce a bomber comparable to the B29.

    Suppose all else is as in OTL.

    Japan is isolated. It has virtually no capacity for keeping ships afloat, little ability to resist air attacks.

    It also faces (and may know it faces) the prospect of a second major enemy declaring war on August 8.

    Further imagine no Manhatten project.#

    Do you know I would still rather be Truman than Tojo
     
  13. DuQuense Commisioned Officer CSN

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    OK Whe acept that japan has a Bomb in July 1945 [The ASB's gave it to them or any other explaintion you want]

    They launch a kamikize atack with Fighters protecting the Bomber carring the Bomb to Okamawa. Boom The American invasion is off [temporary]

    The US used the Bomb in September to avoid the Casaulties of the Invasion, now
    The Rush to use the American Bomb before the Invasion is avoided.

    ?Does the US wait till they have more Bombs, then drops them all say in Dec.?
    Remember this is in retaliazition of the japanese first use.
     
  14. NFR Kanadskiy Namestnik

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    The Japanese would only use the bomb (which they won't get short of infernal intervention) if they wanted to live in a self-lighting rubble field. With hungry ghosts for neighbours.

    Meaning there is a significant danger of the 'let's armed the women and children with spears to fight the invaders' faction to actually go ahead and do it.

    This isn't a joke. One of the slogans were 'a hundred millions as broken jade' refering to death rather than dishonour (and no, the peasant isn't offered a choice). In Okinawa, IJA slaughtered civilians.

    Happily for Japan they couldn't have had the bomb.