Iran - Afghan war 1998

In 1998, the taliban murdered 9 Iranian diplomats and this brought Iran and Afgnanistan close to war with around 270,000 Iranian troops being massed on the border with a threat to invade.

Although this never happend and things calmed down a bit, what would have been the effect of a war between Iran and Afghanistan especially on the situation today?
 
The Taliban are screwed the moment *any* real nation state takes an active interest in ending their rule. But the diplomatic repercussions are interesting.

Would Pakistan continue to back their catspaws?

Would the US fall for an 'Iranian aggression, pretext for extension of hostile influence in the region' spiel?

I assume at that early a date, Russian influence would be noticeably less, but dependiong on where the US come down, that could do interesting things to the politics of China and India.

Worst Case Scenario is the US supporting Pakistani activities in the region through Sunni Islamist catspaws to contain Iran, alienating India and finding itself in a diplomatic standoff over Delhi's nukes. Can you hear the tall, bearded guy in the background chuckling?
 
The Ubbergeek said:
For some reasons, I see US just waiting and see.... BOTH regimes are hated by the US governement,*so...
This is true, but I do think that Pakistan will interfere in the Iran-Afghanistan War.
 
Osama bin Laden is killed by the Iranians, the U.S. government ignores the war for the most part, and Afghanistan is conquered by the ayatollah.
 

backstab

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Evil Opus said:
Osama bin Laden is killed by the Iranians, the U.S. government ignores the war for the most part, and Afghanistan is conquered by the ayatollah.
Has anyone really conquered Afghanistan.... the British didnt, the Russians didnt and I bet the Yanks wont either so I dont think the Iranians will.
 
backstab said:
Has anyone really conquered Afghanistan.... the British didnt, the Russians didnt and I bet the Yanks wont either so I dont think the Iranians will.

The Brits and the Russians didn't consider it worth going to war over, the Soviets had to face a US-backed guerrilla war and, last I heard, Afganistan is starting to settle down.

Iran wouldn't be able to annex all of Afganistan, they'd face the same thing the Soviet Union faced.
 
The Ubbergeek said:
For some reasons, I see US just waiting and see.... BOTH regimes are hated by the US governement,*so...

Sounds like the smart thing to do - which pretty much precludes it, realistically speaking, unfortunately. THe question is just, who will the US favour? I'm guessing Pakistan. And to what degree - hopefully, not too far.
 
backstab said:
Has anyone really conquered Afghanistan.... the British didnt, the Russians didnt and I bet the Yanks wont either so I dont think the Iranians will.
The U.S. has already essentially beaten the Taliban, and Afghanistan is fairly supportive of the new democratic government, so I think that counts as a successful victory(unless something happens from now and when we pull out of Afghanistan). But you're right, and I was wrong, the Iranians would have had a hell of a time with Afghanistan. Anyone can get into Afghanistan...but only rarely can they come out victorious.
 

backstab

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Evil Opus said:
The U.S. has already essentially beaten the Taliban, and Afghanistan is fairly supportive of the new democratic government, so I think that counts as a successful victory(unless something happens from now and when we pull out of Afghanistan). But you're right, and I was wrong, the Iranians would have had a hell of a time with Afghanistan. Anyone can get into Afghanistan...but only rarely can they come out victorious.

The Russians did the exact same thing..... Supported an afgani government and then had the whole thing blow up in their faces. Th US is still a long way off from winning in Afganistan (If they ever do, i'll run naked in the streets !:eek: ) The Afghans are too fragmented to accept anything else than tribal rule. The US thought they had rid Afghanistan of the Taliban last year but they popped back up.
 
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CalBear

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The U.S. will be ok in Afghanistan as long as they don't manage to get the "occupier" label dropped on them like happened (due to our own ham-handed tactics) in Iraq. As long as they are seen as keeping the Taliban at bay, things will be smooth. The day that changes is the day for NATO & the U.S. to beat feet.


The Iranians would, in the short term, have done okay. They could put more combat power on the border than the Taliban and would have had some initial success. Their problems would have begun after the initial thrust. They lack the air power to hold down the country while the Army tries to close with the Taliban, and just as importantly, the Northern Alliance.

The Iranians also have to leave sufficient forces at home to prevent any opprotunist, be it be Saddam, the Kurds, Turks, or Americans from saying "No time like the present" and rolling into a big part of the country.

It would have, from a Western perspective, been a wonderful little war. You can more or less count on Bin Ladan & his crew to come out & fight, with a bit of luck they will get killed by brother Muslims. The Taliban gets ripped up to the point that the less crazy elements in Afghanistan can topple them. Iran's Revolutionary Guard gets torn up in an unpopular war that, with some careful goading might result in the Supreme Leader & his ilk doing the Danny Deever.

Almost too bad it didn't happen.
 
I always suspected that the reason war did not erupt was that the Iranians, on being accused of being evil Western secularists and seeing their embassy in Kabul attacked were struck dumb by the sheer irony of the situation.
 
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