Implications of Britain not entering WW1 until 1915.

[TRH]

The wild card would be if the ottomans threaten British interests like the suez or Egypt ..
This could also be a reason to join the fight.

Also if the ottomans wanted to restore Balkan dominance this could be a devisiv split in the central powers.

I don't think the Ottomans were strong enough to do any of that in 1914. Certainly, they needed the CP's more than the other way around, so needless antagonism in the Balkans is right out, especially since only the Bosnians or Albanians might not rebel against them if they reimposed their authority. More generally, they didn't go on the offensive much in WWI, but if they could, I think Kuwait would be their first target instead. Still, probably not unless Britain was already at war with them.

In the event of peace deals I could see Russia loosing gains in Eastern Europe but Petrograd would be off limits and would unite the Russians to fight. They could loose Poland.. Finland .. Some of Belarus .. Maybe parts of Ukraine .. But Petrograd?! No... And I don't think any western power would want that to either. Even th Turks didn't have to give up Constantinople, or the Germans Berlin .. St Petersburg was the Capitol of Tsarist Russia, it's not being given away, Peter the great built that city.

Peace would have to be with in reason, even Brest-litvosk wasn't that insane

Agreed, probably something less severe than Brest-Litovsk, since that was the result of very particular circumstances involving Trotsky making several terrible mistakes at once that compounded each other. They might only lose Poland and some of the Caucasus, or some such.

 

[Histor32]

I don't think the Ottomans were strong enough to do any of that in 1914. Certainly, they needed the CP's more than the other way around, so needless antagonism in the Balkans is right out, especially since only the Bosnians or Albanians might not rebel against them if they reimposed their authority. More generally, they didn't go on the offensive much in WWI, but if they could, I think Kuwait would be their first target instead. Still, probably not unless Britain was already at war with them.



Agreed, probably something less severe than Brest-Litovsk, since that was the result of very particular circumstances involving Trotsky making several terrible mistakes at once that compounded each other. They might only lose Poland and some of the Caucasus, or some such.

Agreed with the ottoman assessment ... Though some antagonism with Greece is possible

I think the baltics would be a German demand as well.. At least Lithuania and curland

 

[TRH]

Agreed with the ottoman assessment ... Though some antagonism with Greece is possible

I think the baltics would be a German demand as well.. At least Lithuania and curland

The Germans would probably demand some concessions in the Baltic, the issue is that those would potentially leave Petrograd exposed, so I think the Russians would be rather reticent about it. Wasn't as big a deal for the Soviets since they were moving back to Moscow anyways, but Nicholas II would fight harder against that.

 

[Histor32]

The Germans would probably demand some concessions in the Baltic, the issue is that those would potentially leave Petrograd exposed, so I think the Russians would be rather reticent about it. Wasn't as big a deal for the Soviets since they were moving back to Moscow anyways, but Nicholas II would fight harder against that.

True.. But if the war turns ugly I would think the russian empire would collapse upon itself anyways.

Lithuania and more area around Memel at the least would be in the cards. Even if the empire doesn't collapse, those would be accepted.
Actually considering it's a family European feud I would say that even Nicky would offer at least those concessions .. Russia can wait and fight another day. Ukraine would be the larger issue at stake. If they are on the loosing end of the stick though what can they do but fight and I think in a protracted battle it wouldn't be easy goings.

Amongst other issues even in a winning central powers .. How long does Austria-Hungary hold out..

Germany the victor honestly has bitten off more politically than it can chew, Poland wants independence, the baltics are restless.. Ukraine, white Russia as well.. Large portions of the Hapsburg domain is restless...

And let's say France is defeated .. Germany turns full steam east. Who is to say if things big down the French don't make troubles and the British don't help stir the pot, as well as the Americans looking to make a profit on the war.

It might be an empty victory..

 

[cpip]

Agreed with the ottoman assessment ... Though some antagonism with Greece is possible

Antagonism with Greece is even more likely if the British, due to their distractions, don't seize the two Turkish battleships in 1914. If they instead sail and make it to Constantinople (not a sure thing, given the apparent intent of the Greeks to launch attacks on them), then they will feel considerably more comfortable operating in the Aegean...

 

[Histor32]

Antagonism with Greece is even more likely if the British, due to their distractions, don't seize the two Turkish battleships in 1914. If they instead sail and make it to Constantinople (not a sure thing, given the apparent intent of the Greeks to launch attacks on them), then they will feel considerably more comfortable operating in the Aegean...

Butterfly's abound in the Balkans and east

 

[Histor32]

In the east .. France falls some time in 1915 ..
Netherlands become a part of the German empire .. Luxembourg is absorbed .. Alsac Lorraine is solidified .. Belgium is left alone to appease the British . Germany doesn't want anymore from France proper except money and to humiliate the French. The money part will be Weimar in reverse. There might be obvious colonial items that they will ask for but honestly Germany doesn't want or need.

Denmark is vassalized, Scandinavia falls on the German sphere as well.

England America are keys to winning the war, with out them or later entries it's assured Germany is the victor in the west and barring russian tenacity ..

This is accounting for that Germany didn't really want more than what they have.. minus the blood feud between silly and Nicky

 

[IanBertram]

Lots of these issues are interesting but the TL for better or worse is going to stay focused on Britain and Ireland. 'Noises off' will not get a great deal of attention, for practical reasons as much as anything else. I'm still thinking things through. I won't be posting a finished addition to the TL for a while, but as my thoughts develop I'll bring them forward. Thanks for the help so far.

 

[IanBertram]

On teh subject of German interference in Ireland by supplying weapons, I found a few tantalising newspaper articles in Irish newspapers of the time about the arrest of Austrian soldiers in Dublin during the Easter Rising. One surrendered in full uniform, while two were arrested in Ballsbridge allegedly making bombs. I can't find anything further, but it raises some interesting possibilities. When I get the chance I'm going to consult the Times Archive.

 

[LordKalvan]

The race to the coast may not even happen if the British don't enter the war in August 1914. This makes the fall of Paris (or at least its encirclement) even more likely. Note that if the French loose the railway node in Paris, they are in a world of hurt since it would affect all of their troops and supply movements. It is also very likely that the Germans will not even try to occupy Paris: why should they? The war objective on the western front is to force France to get out of the war: there are no serious claims to annex French territories, and it would be in their interest to negotiate an armistice and then a separate peace (which can very well come by Christmas 1914).

If France exits the war, there is not a lot of incentives for Russia to stay in: Tannenberg and the Masurian Lakes have already happened, and the writing on the wall is clear enough. Is it so unlikely for Russia to sue for peace?

My guess is that neither France nor Russia would be hurt too much at the peace table: a white peace, with some reasonable reparations, is where the smart money would go.
Serbia would obviously get the shit end of the stick, and I would hope that they would surrender quickly (the more they stay in the more the butcher bill will be high). Serbia will be punished at the peace table (not just reparations, but also possible that a chunk of Vardar Macedonia may be taken from them and awarded to Bulgaria - even if they are not in the war). A-H are mad enough that it is possible they insist for a protracted occupation of Serbia). There is a 50-50 chance that France looses Tunisia at the peace table, and it is given to Italy

I'm not convinced that the Ottomans will enter the war: maybe they do, since the fall of Paris and the British paralysis would be quite an incentive. In such a case, the Ottomans would have just a single front, in the Caucasus (but it does not mean they are going to make huge progresses there by the end of 1914).
If Russia (wrongly) decides to stay in the war, the peace treaty may become much more expensive (and the longer they stay the more it is going to cost).

Under the above circumstances, it is quite unlikely (I was going to write impossible) that the British decide to enter the war in 1915, even if the French are still in the war (which is again very very unlikely, and it might pull Italy in the war on the CP side). A more reasonable scenario is that once the British put their house in order there might be a kind of cold war between them and Germany.

 

[Ferreti]

On teh subject of German interference in Ireland by supplying weapons, I found a few tantalising newspaper articles in Irish newspapers of the time about the arrest of Austrian soldiers in Dublin during the Easter Rising. One surrendered in full uniform, while two were arrested in Ballsbridge allegedly making bombs. I can't find anything further, but it raises some interesting possibilities. When I get the chance I'm going to consult the Times Archive.

This quite interesting and could change the historical perception of central power influence on Irish independence.

I am extremely surprised that I haven't heard of this before.

Mind sending me links when you find it?

 

[marathag]

My guess is that neither France nor Russia would be hurt too much at the peace table: a white peace, with some reasonable reparations, is where the smart money would go.
Serbia would obviously get the shit end of the stick, and I would hope that they would surrender quickly (the more they stay in the more the butcher bill will be high). Serbia will be punished at the peace table (not just reparations, but also possible that a chunk of Vardar Macedonia may be taken from them and awarded to Bulgaria - even if they are not in the war). A-H are mad enough that it is possible they insist for a protracted occupation of Serbia).

I think France would get off lightly, pre-war borders.

But I think they would hammer the Russians at the Peace Table, since their Pan-Slavic policies caused the War to fire off in the first place.

 

[Luminous]

I think France would get off lightly, pre-war borders.

But I think they would hammer the Russians at the Peace Table, since their Pan-Slavic policies caused the War to fire off in the first place.

Just asking, but what about losses in French Colonies? Equatorial Africa, along with Belgian Congo and, perhaps, Dahomey... along with a protectorate over Morocco? Seems more likely than Germany taking a chunk out of France.

 

[matzeskatze]

How will Belgium react without Britian more or less firmly in the Entente? Would it risk the OTL course of action or would it buckle under the preasure? if the later it would find itself somewhat reliant on Germany, but Imo could even hope the gain some colonial spoils.

For France much hinges on how and when they bow out. If it is after only some short months, then the losses should not be that big. As Germany would probably like a free back against Russia. Should they still fight for their Serbian allies.

 

[marathag]

Just asking, but what about losses in French Colonies? Equatorial Africa, along with Belgian Congo and, perhaps, Dahomey... along with a protectorate over Morocco? Seems more likely than Germany taking a chunk out of France.

I think they might demand the French to turn over their concessions at Shanghai, Tientsin, and Canton
Unlike the other colonies, that made money.

 

[IanBertram]

This quite interesting and could change the historical perception of central power influence on Irish independence.

I am extremely surprised that I haven't heard of this before.

Mind sending me links when you find it?

There is a reference here:
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id...ved=0ahUKEwjd18ew5PXNAhWIVBQKHahlCNEQ6AEIIzAB

Links to newspapers here:
https://www.irishnewsarchive.com/wp/tag/1916-easter-rising/

I was going to consult the London Times archive via my local library service but that's been cut. You may find some links via the Google books link above.

 

[IanBertram]

Under the above circumstances, it is quite unlikely (I was going to write impossible) that the British decide to enter the war in 1915, even if the French are still in the war (which is again very very unlikely, and it might pull Italy in the war on the CP side). A more reasonable scenario is that once the British put their house in order there might be a kind of cold war between them and Germany.

Food for thought, although it takes me in the opposite directionto my POD!!

 

[JErosion]

Denmark is vassalized, Scandinavia falls on the German sphere as well.

well the King of Sweden did want to jump into the war, but the Swedish Diet was dead set against it, now in the TL if Russia sees France was buckling under the Germans in the West, and no sign of Britain joining due to their own problems, is it possible The Russians might start to get desperate enough that they allow Nikolai Essen's plan to force Sweden from Gotland to go though or perhaps allow enough butterflies where Essen misses the stand down order. Giving Sweden a proper casus belli to get involved. Which would beg the question of what would Sweden want out of the peace deal. Hegemony over Finland? The Release of Karelia along with the Kola Pennisula, perhaps Estonia?

 

[Histor32]

well the King of Sweden did want to jump into the war, but the Swedish Diet was dead set against it, now in the TL if Russia sees France was buckling under the Germans in the West, and no sign of Britain joining due to their own problems, is it possible The Russians might start to get desperate enough that they allow Nikolai Essen's plan to force Sweden from Gotland to go though or perhaps allow enough butterflies where Essen misses the stand down order. Giving Sweden a proper casus belli to get involved. Which would beg the question of what would Sweden want out of the peace deal. Hegemony over Finland? The Release of Karelia along with the Kola Pennisula, perhaps Estonia?

I would think they would go for security, and some consessions ( independent Finland free of russian influence )

Norway only recently left Union
Finland and Estonia are urlic

The only things I can think of are consessions maybe in the north or in islands and simply for a weaker Russia.

I would think if they felt they were on the winning side and assuming Germany won, influence in the baltics, belarus and Ukraine, Poland and a newly liberated Finland with good terms for trade and resources, war reperations from Russia.

Yet as I finish that thought, while it would be important to have them in the war, Germany is still carrying the biulk of the war and do the swedes want war against the UK? Russia obviously was doomed per OTL, are the swedes going to make that big of a difference?

 

[JErosion]

Yet as I finish that thought, while it would be important to have them in the war, Germany is still carrying the biulk of the war and do the swedes want war against the UK? Russia obviously was doomed per OTL, are the swedes going to make that big of a difference?

well it would open another front for the Russians and would likely send Finland into full revolt, also Sweden had about 6 division of infantry and a division of cavalry that was ready to go and the ability to call up an addition 6 divisions of infantry from reserves. While its just a drop in the bucket compared to what Russia could field, it would also force Russia to divert units away from the front with Germany and Austria-Hungry to keep Sweden from St Petersburg, and while they could probably keep the swedes from taking the city they would likely lose Murmansk and if the Ottomans jump in later the Russians would be completely cut off from the West.