As my understanding of this conflict isn't particularly deep, I thought I might ask this question and see if I can learn something in the process. Anyway as for the hypothetical scenario, the Nationalists can still receive support from other nations except for Germany. So basically, how crucial was German support to the Nationalist victory?
How would the Spanish Civil War have turned out without German aid?
- Thread starter Color-Copycat
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Longer drawn out, tighter victory for Nationalists probably. Italia still helped, as modestly Salazar.
As I understand it, Italian aid was on a far larger scale than German. The latter consisted mainly of the Condor Legion, which was spectacular but not decisive. Its absence means no Guernica, but probably doesn't change the general course of the war in any big way.
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But italian machines and stuff were not much up to dates, except the navy, i think.
How big was Salazar's help, BTW? Anyone know? This part of 20th century european history is so obscure....
The Italians deployed more than 50.000 troops, who were well-armed compared to other participants in the civil war.
They send more than 700 planes to the nationalists, in addition to 1800 pieces of artillery and more than 150 tanks.
If Germany opts out of the war, Mussolini might just increase the support in order to be the dominant fascist leader.
In total I think it will still end with a nationalist victory, but it might take a little longer.
They send more than 700 planes to the nationalists, in addition to 1800 pieces of artillery and more than 150 tanks.
If Germany opts out of the war, Mussolini might just increase the support in order to be the dominant fascist leader.
In total I think it will still end with a nationalist victory, but it might take a little longer.
Been reading one of Mussolini's biography and it states that he had an idea of an independent fascist coalition in the case of Franco's victory and Hitler's abstention from civil war. He was pretty nervous about having a mutual border with the Reich. And since he had pretty close relations with Horthy as well...(Madrid - Rome - Budapest - maybe Sofia axis isn't far off)
Wow.
What Franco though of him, I wonder. (And Hitler)
Make one wonder, too. If the Republicans would have won, what of Portugal? Would they have helped a local insurrection?
Yes Mussolini had many dreams involving glory to Italy.....Reality was another matter though, where Il Duce wasn't doing so well.
Cook
Banned
Significantly it also included more direct aid than just the ‘volunteers’; Italian submarines torpedoed Soviet freighters delivering aid to the Rupublicans.
Indeed:
91 Italian warships and submarines also participated in and after the war, and sank about 72,800 tons of shipping, and lost 38 sailors killed in action
Faeelin
Banned
Don't forget that the absence of German aid might have influence on everyone else. I could see France sending aid to the Republicans as well.
Quite doubtfull that less aid to the nationalist side, would have France break the agreement made, that no country was to support either side.
IOTL France and UK followed this agreement, and Germany, Italy and the USSR ignored it completely....so I don't see why France would break the agreement, because Germany chooses to abide by it?
Faeelin
Banned
The agreement arose after it looked like everyone was going to start sending weaponry. In OTL the Popular Front was willing to send equipment to what was, after all, the legitimate government of the Republic of Spain up until this became a crisis.
On one side we have the numbers, and on the other side the quality (not only technical, but also "human") of the help. Italian help was certainly larger than german help in numbers, but the quality of the german material and the preparation and effectiveness of german troops was far supperior.
Guernica was an horrible war crime that helped to sink the republican moral in the northern front, but as you say, it was more symbolic than decisive. However, the participation of the Condor Legion along the whole campaing in the north was a big factor in the nationalist victory there. Also, thanks to the fall of the north, the nationalist army could move troops towrads interior Spain, mainly around Madrid and in Aragon.
On the other hand, german aviation also had a very important role to stop the republican main offensives in 1937 and 1938 and of course participated in the bombings over Madrid, Barcelona and other ciites, which, though less spectacular than Guernica, were equally mercyless.
Furthermore, the Kriegsmarine participated very activelly in the pressure over the republican fleet as well as their responability in the "punishment" bombing of Almeria in 1937.
So, though probably not decisive, german help had an important impact in the development of the war, both over the field, in the moral of the nationalist side and in the diplomatic front.
Portuguese participation consisted mainly in the authorization of use of their soil for transport of troops and material. Until the ports of Andalusia were firmly controled and secured by the nationalists, their supplies came mainly via Lisbon, and also they moved troops through portuguese territory when needed to avoid eventual republican interference. Also, many republican refugees that crossed the frontier were sent back to Franco. You can add also diplomatic coverture to the list and a token force of volunteers known as "Viriatos", which were integrated in falangist units.
Also, regarding international "no-intervention", Kindelán was allowed to use Gibraltar and its telephonic infrastructure as a communications hub for the nationalist forces ( Morocco-Lisbon-Burgos connection) in the first moments of the war and the RN interpossed herself between the republican fleet and Algeciras when the former tried to neutralize the port (in nationalist hands)
Anyway, it's difficult to say wether the combined italo-german direct help was decissive in the final result of the war or not, but without german help the war probably would have lasted more time even if the italians expand their participation,and then there are several possible butterflies depending on the developments in the international scenario.
On the other hand, as other have mentioned, the financial help was as important or more than the miliiary help. Consider that the gold reserves of Spain were in the hands of the government. Financial help for nationalists didn't came only from germany and Italy. Well, actually, material help didn't come only from germany and Italy either. For example, Ford, Studebaker and General Motors provided 12.000 trucks to the nationalist side, thus almost three times more than Germany and Italy combined, and DuPont provided 40.000 bombs via Germany. Rio Tinto Zinc provided financiation through foreing exchange to the nationalist side. Nationalists get the double of oil importations than the republicans, mainly from USA, exploiting the fact that the Neutrality Act didn't contemplated oil as war supply. Texaco, whose owner was a well knows sympathizer of fascism, granted a line of credit to Franco for all the oil he would need.
Other homegrown magnates also provided with a lot of financial help to the nationalists, people like Juan March (known as Franco's banker) and the Duke of Alba (Churchill's "cousin") provided large ammounts of money to the nationalists, as well as diplomatic promotion for the cause inside certain british financial and political circles. Also, Alfonso XIII sent lots of money to the nationalists thanks to the fortune he had evaded from Spain when he was expelled in 1931.
Regarding the development of the war properly, the absence of german intervention could mean some changes in the nationalist inner power struggles. One of the cards played by Franco to get the absolute power inside the nationalis side was that the german support to the nationalists was actually german support to Franco. Since the first moment, Hitler ordered that only Franco, and not any other general, would get german material and troops. Wthout this german help on his side, Franco's position would be weaker and perhaps he wouldn't have managed to get the support of the Junta de Defensa Nacional (actually even in OTL there was some minor resistance) or at least no so easilly.
Also, without german involvement, the crossing of the strait by the Army of Africa would be delayed, if not avoided. If the former, the control of western Andalusia could be contested by the Republic, depending on the extent of the delay. Franco has to await in Morocco meawhile, weakening his position amongst the generals. The moral boost and demonstraton of force towards the word powers by the nationalists would be disoluted in the time. Nationalists probably would have faced more ad better organized opposition in their advance towards Madrid,though the result would have been probaby the same, we are still delayig the development of the events. Also, if Yagüe's "Column of Death" is not letting its trail of blood and horror through the Guadalquivir valey and Extremadura in the early moments of the war, perhaps more lifes could have been saved in the republican rearguard. If the african army can't cross the straight (which in my opinion is the less likely option), then I think the war is over to the end of 1936 as latter, either with the nationalists forced to accept an agreement or totally defeated, though pobably the former.
Originally Posted by Faeelin
Don't forget that the absence of German aid might have influence on everyone else. I could see France sending aid to the Republicans as well.
I think Faeelin rises a good point. Though the logic of "not provocation to Germany" is valid, without the fear to Germany, France could be also more likely to send weapons to the republic. At least the britsh diplomatical pressure would be lessened or the french government could have ignored it more easily since their main fear was to face a german agression without british support. On the other hand,they have still the "internal front", the campaing of the right wing press and the fear inside the army to an escalation of the current political violences in the french streets, so the eventual french intervention perhaps it's a 50-50 possibility.
Also, Italy had just faced international condemantion due to Abyssinia and they are going to intervene as a main partner in another questionable adventure. Without Germany involved, making appeasement a less pressing priority, and the Stressa Front in shambles, there is the possibility that the non-intervention agreement is actually a non-intervention agreement, specially if the nationalist position is weaker in the first months of the war. So, the western powers could have the will to enforce the treaty, thus Italy wouldn't have the free hand they had in OTL to intervene in Spain. That could lead, again, to stalemate where the sides' only option would be a negotiated peace.
Cheers.
Well the proposal for the agreement was put forward August 3 1936, some 2 weeks after hostilities broke out, by the French!!...so once more having the Germans abide by this treaty would IMHO not make the French more likely to break the treaty.....But you seem to see it differently, maybe you could elaborate your point of view?...because I don't really get it.
Faeelin
Banned
Well the proposal for the agreement was put forward August 3 1936, some 2 weeks after hostilities broke out, by the French!!...so once more having the Germans abide by this treaty would IMHO not make the French more likely to break the treaty.....But you seem to see it differently, maybe you could elaborate your point of view?...because I don't really get it.
Blum came up with the idea and was the initial proponent, but there was heavy British influence to dissuade him from aiding Spain. See cf. http://books.google.com/books?id=-V...=non-intervention spain blum pressure&f=false