How could the republicans win the spanish civil war?
- Thread starter AdmiralBlake
- Start date
Ok, this came up on my final year of undergrads exam that I had and the following I think is the key steps that the republic should have taken, starting from the initial events of the coup attempt.
1) Arm the workers.
2) Arm the workers.
3) Form a government that included the Socialists, taking Prieto over Caballero if he wouldn't do it.
4) Put the Republican Navy on alert in the Med between Africa and Spain, and trust the crews of the ships to actually do their jobs
5) Assuming the Army of Africa crosses somehow anyway, continue using the navy, OTL the Republicans basically gave up on their Navy, despite the fact that 90% of Supplies and a number of significant troop movements by the nationalists were conducted by ship.
6) Fight harder to stop the Nats joining up with each other at Badajoz
7) Rather than trying to take cities like Teruel, perform offensives that encircled large troop concentrations and then starve them out.
8) Either let the Communists run the military or don't let them even raise troops - the regiments of the new Republican Army were a step in the right direction but they did attract all the resources and supplies.
9) Somehow magic it that Daladier doesn't manage to kick Blum out of office and interrupt supplies of ammo across the French border, meaning that the Republicans lose the Basque country.
10) ARM THE FUCKING WORKERS ON DAY ONE
etcetc, it goes on.
1) Arm the workers.
2) Arm the workers.
3) Form a government that included the Socialists, taking Prieto over Caballero if he wouldn't do it.
4) Put the Republican Navy on alert in the Med between Africa and Spain, and trust the crews of the ships to actually do their jobs
5) Assuming the Army of Africa crosses somehow anyway, continue using the navy, OTL the Republicans basically gave up on their Navy, despite the fact that 90% of Supplies and a number of significant troop movements by the nationalists were conducted by ship.
6) Fight harder to stop the Nats joining up with each other at Badajoz
7) Rather than trying to take cities like Teruel, perform offensives that encircled large troop concentrations and then starve them out.
8) Either let the Communists run the military or don't let them even raise troops - the regiments of the new Republican Army were a step in the right direction but they did attract all the resources and supplies.
9) Somehow magic it that Daladier doesn't manage to kick Blum out of office and interrupt supplies of ammo across the French border, meaning that the Republicans lose the Basque country.
10) ARM THE FUCKING WORKERS ON DAY ONE
etcetc, it goes on.
Last edited:
LordKalvert
Banned
Ally with Germany or at least a German neutrality agreement by promising help against the English and French. Hitler proved he was capable of taking such an offer (see Molotov pact)
Why not give it a shot (has to turn out better for the Republicans than what happened
Why not give it a shot (has to turn out better for the Republicans than what happened
KM's point about the Republican navy's valid but they were bitterly divided.
IF they could've gotten it together and massacred the Moorish legion's transports, the Civil War becomes a damp squib. Germans and Italians get spanked badly enough for foreign adventures to seem less profitable.
Germany and Italy being fully at war with Republican Spain might get the LoN off their duffs and some actual plans and coordination to restrain German and Italian ambitions. The French and British not restraining the Republic to arm itself properly in response would do some to improve their capabilities.
YMMDV. Uncle Joe's dearest hope from 1936-1939, was that the democracies would quit implicitly backing Hitler's anti-Soviet crusade.
Bumping jsb's point- the anticlerical campaigns by the anarchists and communsts were a major factor in losing CEDA support for the Republic and any support by the major democracies (US, UK, France).
This means butterflying that campaign keeps loyal lot of the Spanish army NCO's and officers that went Nationalist mostly b/c of that chaos.
The Republic started off screwed w/ 80% of their officer and NCO cadre went over to the Nationalists leaving the herd of militias headed by some rather uninspired generals and having to rebuild the guts of a military from scratch.
As to arming the workers, you've got a point, especially in Andalucia.
The Guardia Civil managed to keep the socialists and anarchist militias in check so when the Moorish legion made landfall, it was a runaway slaughter.
Butterfly the GC being "neutral" or pro-Nationalist and the Andalucian campaign's much different.
I'm with KM- Leon Blum could have been more forceful in backing the Republic. As tough as it is for a Yank like myself to see France as the best hope for the Spanish Republic, from a logistical and political POV they are in the SCW.
If the French get involved and blockade Portugal, the Germans and Italians are SOL. No fuel, spares, ammo, or reinforcements, and it becomes grim real fast.
The Communists had the right idea of a centralized command and consistent supply/training/C3I structure but they were on a shoestring of supplies and having to start almost from scratch with a group unprepapred to fight the Spanish-American War much less deal with the blitzkrieg.
Most volunteers in the Int'l brigades were Great War veterans or had some military or paramilitary training so they'd theoretically be great cadre for the Spanish militias to learn "proper" soldiering or at least central commands, unlike the militiamen used to taking autonomous action.
As you mentioned, it became a major bone of contention within the Republic that all those Soviet tanks, planes and heavy weaponry went to "reliable" Communist units like the IB"s and Assault Guards instead of Spanish Army units.
Militias esp POUM, CNT/FAI saw the handwriting on the wall and bitterly resisted that centralizing push. Politically they were right, but from a military effectiveness POV or even preventing Nationalist victory POV, it was disastrous for the Republic.
IF they could've gotten it together and massacred the Moorish legion's transports, the Civil War becomes a damp squib. Germans and Italians get spanked badly enough for foreign adventures to seem less profitable.
Germany and Italy being fully at war with Republican Spain might get the LoN off their duffs and some actual plans and coordination to restrain German and Italian ambitions. The French and British not restraining the Republic to arm itself properly in response would do some to improve their capabilities.
YMMDV. Uncle Joe's dearest hope from 1936-1939, was that the democracies would quit implicitly backing Hitler's anti-Soviet crusade.
Bumping jsb's point- the anticlerical campaigns by the anarchists and communsts were a major factor in losing CEDA support for the Republic and any support by the major democracies (US, UK, France).
This means butterflying that campaign keeps loyal lot of the Spanish army NCO's and officers that went Nationalist mostly b/c of that chaos.
The Republic started off screwed w/ 80% of their officer and NCO cadre went over to the Nationalists leaving the herd of militias headed by some rather uninspired generals and having to rebuild the guts of a military from scratch.
As to arming the workers, you've got a point, especially in Andalucia.
The Guardia Civil managed to keep the socialists and anarchist militias in check so when the Moorish legion made landfall, it was a runaway slaughter.
Butterfly the GC being "neutral" or pro-Nationalist and the Andalucian campaign's much different.
I'm with KM- Leon Blum could have been more forceful in backing the Republic. As tough as it is for a Yank like myself to see France as the best hope for the Spanish Republic, from a logistical and political POV they are in the SCW.
If the French get involved and blockade Portugal, the Germans and Italians are SOL. No fuel, spares, ammo, or reinforcements, and it becomes grim real fast.
The Communists had the right idea of a centralized command and consistent supply/training/C3I structure but they were on a shoestring of supplies and having to start almost from scratch with a group unprepapred to fight the Spanish-American War much less deal with the blitzkrieg.
Most volunteers in the Int'l brigades were Great War veterans or had some military or paramilitary training so they'd theoretically be great cadre for the Spanish militias to learn "proper" soldiering or at least central commands, unlike the militiamen used to taking autonomous action.
As you mentioned, it became a major bone of contention within the Republic that all those Soviet tanks, planes and heavy weaponry went to "reliable" Communist units like the IB"s and Assault Guards instead of Spanish Army units.
Militias esp POUM, CNT/FAI saw the handwriting on the wall and bitterly resisted that centralizing push. Politically they were right, but from a military effectiveness POV or even preventing Nationalist victory POV, it was disastrous for the Republic.
The Republican navy was seriously handicapped by the lack of ranking officers. Let's face it, even the most competent able seaman or bosun isn't neccessarily able to efficiently command a warship.
The anti- clerical progroms alienated not just CEDA but also a substantial part of the general population.
The political infighting between Socialists, Anarchist and Communists was a big factor. In fact there never was a united 'Republican' command structure. Not sure how they could have avoided that.
Not entirely sure either that arming the workers ( a generalisation) would have sufficed. They still need extensive training to to able to stand up against a professional army. Moreover, there was the question of whom to supply weapons to. Those that had the ability to do so usually distributed weapons to their own (known) factions only. Which in some extreme cases led to groups changing sides.
As soon as the US began supplying the Nationalists with trucks and fuel the war was lost. I suppose the 'Communist' scare was just too big.
The anti- clerical progroms alienated not just CEDA but also a substantial part of the general population.
The political infighting between Socialists, Anarchist and Communists was a big factor. In fact there never was a united 'Republican' command structure. Not sure how they could have avoided that.
Not entirely sure either that arming the workers ( a generalisation) would have sufficed. They still need extensive training to to able to stand up against a professional army. Moreover, there was the question of whom to supply weapons to. Those that had the ability to do so usually distributed weapons to their own (known) factions only. Which in some extreme cases led to groups changing sides.
As soon as the US began supplying the Nationalists with trucks and fuel the war was lost. I suppose the 'Communist' scare was just too big.
The thing about the anti-clericalism that hurt so much was because of how it was spun by Nationalists and supporters of Franco abroad. While there were cases of abuse and unjustified killing many of the clerics who were on the receiving end of the anarchists and the communists during the Spanish Civil War were frequently Francoist supporters either through preaching, providing material support, or in some cases fighting for the Nationalist cause. Unless you can somehow get the Spanish clergy to sit the fight out (highly unlikely) there's going to be violence aimed at fascist priests which gives Franco an easy propaganda win no matter what. What might work is if more notice, attention, and awareness is raised of the more numerous and brutal atrocities committed by the Francoists came to light much sooner and without any doubt of the truth of such claims like Guernica.
An easier way to ensure the win is for the British to put a halt on the massive aircraft order necessary to ferry the Army of Africa. They had the authority to do so given the scale of the purchase and if anyone in the British government had done so by a day or two that could be enough to stop the airlift and making the war possible in the first place. Of course they could also actually enforce the arms embargo
but given the strongly pro-Franco elements in the government at the time that would have been highly unlikely. Another possibility for getting the delay you need is for something like a dock worker's strike hold up the delivery of parts, materials, and finished product.
And I agree with Kaisermuffin on points 1 & 2. If the Republic had armed the workers from the get-go like the CNT asked then even if the Army of Africa had crossed Andalusia goes from being a Nationalist breadbasket to a major battlezone and it is possible the siege of Madrid would never happen. If you can avoid the siege then the Republican government is going to be in a MUCH better position internally and abroad; no matter what other things happen inside the country if it looks like the Republic has Franco's forces contained on the fringes of the country and the capital is solidly under control it's going to be very hard for anyone to claim they aren't the legitimate government of Spain.
An easier way to ensure the win is for the British to put a halt on the massive aircraft order necessary to ferry the Army of Africa. They had the authority to do so given the scale of the purchase and if anyone in the British government had done so by a day or two that could be enough to stop the airlift and making the war possible in the first place. Of course they could also actually enforce the arms embargo
but given the strongly pro-Franco elements in the government at the time that would have been highly unlikely. Another possibility for getting the delay you need is for something like a dock worker's strike hold up the delivery of parts, materials, and finished product.And I agree with Kaisermuffin on points 1 & 2. If the Republic had armed the workers from the get-go like the CNT asked then even if the Army of Africa had crossed Andalusia goes from being a Nationalist breadbasket to a major battlezone and it is possible the siege of Madrid would never happen. If you can avoid the siege then the Republican government is going to be in a MUCH better position internally and abroad; no matter what other things happen inside the country if it looks like the Republic has Franco's forces contained on the fringes of the country and the capital is solidly under control it's going to be very hard for anyone to claim they aren't the legitimate government of Spain.