How could the collapse of the Soviet Union have been prevented

[Armored Diplomacy]

How could the Soviet Union survive to the present day and into the foreseeable future, still as a superpower, under a Communist (at least in name) system?

Rules:

* There can be reforms, but not to the degree of the ones China carried out.

* The structure of the Soviet government stays the same.

* The Soviet government has to retain every single republic.

* The Soviet Union must still remain a superpower capable of militarily and geopolitically challenging the United States.

 

[BELFAST]

No more central planning and the adoption of a market economy.
Downsizing of Soviet military and no more supporting proxy war world wide.

 

[Killer300]

No more central planning and the adoption of a market economy.
Downsizing of Soviet military and no more supporting proxy war world wide.

What type of market? Also, this partially violates the rules above, and doesn't take into account that China still does central planning, just not on the same scale.

 

[superjames1992]

Keep commodity prices high. When commodity prices collapsed in the 1980s following the boom in the 1970s, it did all kinds of damage to the Soviet economy, which was heavily-dependent on commodities like oil and gold (as Russia still is today).

I don't think that, in and of itself, would have prevented the collapse, but it certainly would have helped.

Also, if the USSR didn't engage price fix basically everything they produced, there would have been more incentive to produce and shortages wouldn't have been so rampant. Everything was dirt cheap in the Soviet Union, but it didn't really matter because you couldn't actually find anything on the shelf besides bread.

 

[Killer300]

Keep commodity prices high. When commodity prices collapsed in the 1980s following the boom in the 1970s, it did all kinds of damage to the Soviet economy, which was heavily-dependent on commodities like oil and gold (as Russia still is today).

I don't think that, in and of itself, would have prevented the collapse, but it certainly would have helped.

Also, if the USSR didn't engage price fix basically everything they produced, there would have been more incentive to produce and shortages wouldn't have been so rampant. Everything was dirt cheap in the Soviet Union, but it didn't really matter because you couldn't actually find anything on the shelf besides bread.

With the last, they need to do it slowly. If they do it too fast, they'll get the 90s shock crash at the worst time.

 

[superjames1992]

With the last, they need to do it slowly. If they do it too fast, they'll get the 90s shock crash at the worst time.

This is true. That's the problem with keeping prices artificially low for decades, though. The second the true price is realized, prices skyrocket into the stratosphere.

 

[Killer300]

This is true. That's the problem with keeping prices artificially low for decades, though. The second the true price is realized, prices skyrocket into the stratosphere.

Yes, if they take some of what China did, which was liberalizing their economy a single piece at a time, it may work out. However, even then, there will be differences to China.

 

[Snake Featherston]

The problem is the specification of the third and fourth categories. Especially with regard to the Baltic states.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

If they had followed the Chinese model: introduce free enterprise and keep the repressive government.

 

[Killer300]

The problem is the specification of the third and fourth categories. Especially with regard to the Baltic states.

If they do slow economic reforms, ala China, they can keep things from falling apart while maintaining control over their stuff in typical Soviet style.

 

[Snake Featherston]

If they do slow economic reforms, ala China, they can keep things from falling apart while maintaining control over their stuff in typical Soviet style.

Not exactly. The problem is the specification that any Soviet Socialist Republic can secede and that the USSR's legal reforms opened a great big gaping hole for the Baltic states to move through.

 

[Killer300]

If they had followed the Chinese model: introduce free enterprise and keep the repressive government.

Sadly, you have a thread to attend in regards to China's path of reform.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=243570

 

[Killer300]

Not exactly. The problem is the specification that any Soviet Socialist Republic can secede and that the USSR's legal reforms opened a great big gaping hole for the Baltic states to move through.

Well that didn't quite work out for Hungary in 1956, but you may be talking about something afterwards.

If after... ordinary Soviet ignoring of previous legal stature that is inconvenient.

 

[Sicarius]

Dateline: 1985

Boris Yeltsin drunk drives into a van carrying Oleg Shenin, Vladimir Kryuchkov, Dmitry Yazov, Boris Pugo, Valentin Pavlov, Oleg Baklanov, and Gennady Yanayev to a CPSU Hardliners Only Picnic, and all are killed in the fiery crash.

 

[Killer300]

Dateline: 1985

Boris Yeltsin drunk drives into a van carrying Oleg Shenin, Vladimir Kryuchkov, Dmitry Yazov, Boris Pugo, Valentin Pavlov, Oleg Baklanov, and Gennady Yanayev to a CPSU Hardliners Only Picnic, and all are killed in the fiery crash.

The power of alcoholism saves the Soviet Union?

 

[Snake Featherston]

Well that didn't quite work out for Hungary in 1956, but you may be talking about something afterwards.

If after... ordinary Soviet ignoring of previous legal stature that is inconvenient.

I'm talking about the secession of the Baltic states in 1991.

 

[Killer300]

I'm talking about the secession of the Baltic states in 1991.

Okay, well, a POD before then could probably prevent their secession, which is already required here.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Okay, well, a POD before then could probably prevent their secession, which is already required here.

That POD requires the USSR to not give its constituent SSRs the ability to secede, or averting the original Soviet borging of those three states in the first place.

 

[Killer300]

Neither of which are out of bounds here.

 

[Living in Exile]

Going back all the way to WWII...


Khalkhyn Gol escalates to a full scale war with Japan. The USSR wins a solid victory, curbing Japanese ambitions yet also providing a experience that exposes weaknesses in the Red Army somewhat earlier. Reforms are sped up, plus Stalin is more focused on the West. The Red Army takes warnings seriously, and is prepared for Operation Barbarossa. The Nazis are decisively defeated early. The Soviets get a bigger sphere of influence in Europe, and suffer fewer losses than OTL doing it. Without the catastrophic losses of OTL, the population of the USSR is not quite as messed up. It will likely still be ugly demographically, but somewhat improved.

Because Japan has been cowed, there's no Pearl Harbor. The United States doesn't ever get around to intervening in Europe, and never fully emerges from Isolationism. With no Marshall Plan or the like, the countries that aren't drawn into the Communist Bloc by force topple. The resulting association of Communist states, dominated by the USSR, is economically strong enough to last to the present day, just by virtue of size. The United States doesn't get to rebuild the bombed out world post-war, and the economy doesn't boom as much in the 50s. First man on the Moon is Russian, etc. USSR doesn't feel as threatened by the USA, less intense arms race and lower defense spending.