Ethiopian-Somalia Union 1977

walmart

In the mid-1970s, Castro and former Soviet leaders were celebrating what looked like the emergence of another socialist leadership following the rise of the Derg regime in Ethiopia. Somalia had already been declared a socialist state and had hosted a large presence of Soviet and Cuban military advisers and trainers.

In early 1977, Castro brought together the leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia and southern Yemen to create greater socialist federal states in the region. General Mohamed Nur Galal was the former deputy defense minister of Somalia and the focal point of Somalia's military contacts with Cuba at that time. He was present at the meeting in Aden in March 1977.
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https://www.voanews.com/a/fidel-castro-left-mark-on-somalia-horn-africa/3612803.html

Say Ogaden is offered to Somalia for joining along with stronger threats of Cuban and Soviet intervention on Ethiopia side in any war between the two along with threatening to cut off arms and foreign aid to Somalia if they refuse to join.

Would this persuade Somalia to form a federation with Ethiopia

Given Somalia had the stronger military at the time, could Siad Barre end up as leader of the whole federation ?

What would be the impact
 

walmart

twistedirregular said:
Nope, Ethiopia is never going to willingly relinquish the Ogaden to Somalia nor is it going to join into a federation with her.
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Wouldn't merging with Somalia end the Ogaden insurgency as Ethiopia now contains the majority of the Somali population and removes a source of arms and money for rebels. Also couldn't you use the large Somali military at that time to help crush rebellions.
 
twistedirregular

twistedirregular

Noscoper said:
Wouldn't merging with Somalia end the Ogaden insurgency as Ethiopia now contains the majority of the Somali population and removes a source of arms and money for rebels. Also couldn't you use the large Somali military at that time to help crush rebellions.
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That's the thing - it wouldn't end until a Greater Somalia is formed. In fact, the Ogaden insurgents are now bolstered by financial and material support directly from Mogadishu which may chose to break away from the federation with the Ogaden region as one third of core Ethiopian territory and her population is taken by the Somalis. The Somali military wouldn't crush the Ogaden insurgency but rather support it in favor of the establishment of the Greater Somalia that Siad Barre was promoting IOTL during the Ogaden War.
 

fasquardon

Hm. I have a hard time seeing this happen as a union of equals.

I have entertained the idea of this happening as a way for Somalia to legitimize its expansion without "annexing" anywhere.

If they win the Ogaden war, support the overthrow of the Derg by the other socialist groups and nationalists among Ethiopia's very large ethnic minorities, then conclude a loose union that basically meant everyone agreed to colour the territory with a single colour on their maps and keep no trade barriers, coordinate on foreign policy, economic policy and on military matters, it might have a chance of turning out better than Yugoslavia.

But I really need to read up on the exact dynamics in the region before I include that idea in a timeline. It may be complete pie-in-the-sky.

fasquardon
 
lerk

lerk

Besides I don't think either Barre as leader would satisfy Ethiopians (similarly, Mengitsu as leader won't satisfy Somalis) so you'll have to get someone from an ethnic minority in Ethiopia that isn't of much importance in order to get someone who makes all ethnic groups happy. I don't think it was in either Barre or Mengitsu's nature to give up power willingly to someone irrelevant.
 

walmart

twistedirregular said:
it wouldn't end until a Greater Somalia is formed. In fact, the Ogaden insurgents are now bolstered by financial and material support directly from Mogadishu which may chose to break away from the federation with the Ogaden region as one third of core Ethiopian territory and her population is taken by the Somalis.
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Wouldn't this federation be greater Somalia though especially if you transfer the Ogaden to Somalia. Couldn't you advocate bringing the Somali inhabited parts of Kenya and Djibouti to further bind Somalis to a Federation with Ethiopia ?

twistedirregular said:
The Somali military wouldn't crush the Ogaden insurgency but rather support it in favor of the establishment of the Greater Somalia that Siad Barre was promoting IOTL during the Ogaden War.
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I was thinking more that they crush the Eritreans or the Oromo
 
twistedirregular

twistedirregular

Noscoper said:
Wouldn't this federation be greater Somalia though especially if you transfer the Ogaden to Somalia. Couldn't you advocate bringing the Somali inhabited parts of Kenya and Djibouti to further bind Somalis to a Federation with Ethiopia ?

I was thinking more that they crush the Eritreans or the Oromo
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Again, Ethiopia is never going to willingly relinquish the Ogaden to Somalia in any form. Why would Ethiopia even want to be in a federation with the country that just invaded them and attempted to annex more than one third of her territory?

Doubt it, considering Ethiopia wouldn't allow Somali troops on her territory and it seems the Somalis would support the insurgents to destabilize Ethiopia to take the Ogaden.
 
twistedirregular

twistedirregular

fasquardon said:
Hm. I have a hard time seeing this happen as a union of equals.

I have entertained the idea of this happening as a way for Somalia to legitimize its expansion without "annexing" anywhere.

If they win the Ogaden war, support the overthrow of the Derg by the other socialist groups and nationalists among Ethiopia's very large ethnic minorities, then conclude a loose union that basically meant everyone agreed to colour the territory with a single colour on their maps and keep no trade barriers, coordinate on foreign policy, economic policy and on military matters, it might have a chance of turning out better than Yugoslavia.

But I really need to read up on the exact dynamics in the region before I include that idea in a timeline. It may be complete pie-in-the-sky.

fasquardon
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I very much doubt this Ethiopian union would stay intact for long, especially if the particularly restive nationalities decided to simply break away from the loose union you propose.
 

fasquardon

twistedirregular said:
I very much doubt this Ethiopian union would stay intact for long, especially if the particularly restive nationalities decided to simply break away from the loose union you propose.
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Well, how did the Oromo and Eritrean nationalists view the Somalis?

I can imagine things would break apart if the Somalis tried to impose themselves too much. But if it is an economic and military alliance with a big helping of "keep the Amhara contained", I could see it working.

fasquardon
 
twistedirregular

twistedirregular

fasquardon said:
Well, how did the Oromo and Eritrean nationalists view the Somalis?

I can imagine things would break apart if the Somalis tried to impose themselves too much. But if it is an economic and military alliance with a big helping of "keep the Amhara contained", I could see it working.

fasquardon
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I don't think they had any positive views towards the Somalis, especially after the Ogaden War.
 

fasquardon

twistedirregular said:
I don't think they had any positive views towards the Somalis, especially after the Ogaden War.
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...

The Somalis were allied with some of those groups after the Ogaden War. Now maybe this was just a case of "my enemy's enemy is less of an enemy to me" rather than "my enemy's enemy is my friend", but from what I've read, things were not so simple as you are saying.

fasquardon
 
twistedirregular

twistedirregular

fasquardon said:
...

The Somalis were allied with some of those groups after the Ogaden War. Now maybe this was just a case of "my enemy's enemy is less of an enemy to me" rather than "my enemy's enemy is my friend", but from what I've read, things were not so simple as you are saying.

fasquardon
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Of course, although I may need to brush up on my history regarding the Ethiopian Civil War and her various resistance movements.
 
ETA50M

ETA50M

Noscoper said:
The proposal was before the Ogaden war but I see your point
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There was already a border war between Somalia and Ethiopia in 1964. The amount of bad blood between both nations will never see a union happen unless you have a highly naive person leading Ethiopia who wouldn't see the union for the trap it would be. Or a separatist movement gaining control of the country.

twistedirregular said:
Of course, although I may need to brush up on my history regarding the Ethiopian Civil War and her various resistance movements.
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You should check out the Kutub movement, a Harari national movement to unify the Hararghe area with Somalia and was linked to the Somali Youth League.
 
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