East Germany Survives the Cold War

[Steffen]

Because so many people pa attention to the Greens....?
Of course I know what you mean, but you had to pick the most green and leftiest of them all (besides fischer. sometimes I wonder if he himself knows anymore where he stands).
And I will ignore that partisan comment about the leftist media

Well Strauß would have been quite old at this time already. He surely would not have been an active politican, so his remarks simply could not have stirred up so many things, IMO.
Hmpf. Bavaria and Saxony are toroughly black, so anti-czech comments to get votes is no possibility either, as the elections there are simply... too one-sided, lol. f coruse, Czechia would have been the easiest target in an election campaign, because of the Benes Decrets and Temelin...
Hm. What about Möllemann? His comments were popularist in nature, and he rode on a haider-created european wave of popuralism, but at least it shows that he was willing and capable to use such things. What if he had done so during the reunification process already? I mean, the FDP fighting for parliamentary survival is nothing new either!

Strauß: Was reelected October 1986, and died still holding office on october 3, 1988. So it´s not really asb-ish to give him 2 more years, and even if he doesn´t run for reelection in October 90, he would still fill the beer tents.

Saxony: Well, the DSU (NOT DVU) had her stronghold there and was influenced by the CSU, but I would say in 1990 the 5 new states were blanc territory for nearly all parties.

"Riesenstaatsmann Mümmelmann" (quote FJS) : I think he was still more a leftist then, and wanted to replace Genscher as Foreign ministe´r so he would have kept his mouth shut.

 

[Max Sinister]

"The key elements of the new plan:
-GDR agrees to open borders to West Germans who wish to visit their friends and family in the East. They charge a 'tourism fee' of 50 DM per person in order to build up hard currency reserves."

They did ecactly this in the 70s, easing the visit regulations for families, with the influx of hard cash in mind.

Not entirely correct. Every visitor had to change 25 DM per person and per day into east German money - most people couldn't spend all that money since the prices were low and there wasn't much to buy. The GDR made some money that way (but not enough)

Guess what? In order to stabilize the eastern economy, Bavarian state chief minister Franz-Josef Strauss organized huge loans for the GDR, which was quite surprising as he was the biggest anti-communist fire eater in west germany.

Some people say that was because there was some money for him / his party in that deal, too ;-)

best chance: leftist Social Democrats and greens are in power and do everything to help their socialist buddies in the east.

Stop raving. The difference between Greens/Social democrats and the SED is a lot bigger than between, let's say, Strauss and Schönhuber.

 

[Max Sinister]

The economic black hole that is East Germany has wrecked West Germany's economy too and the whole of Europe is experiencing an economic slowdown.

Are you describing OTL Germany? West Germany sepnt about 1250 billion Euro for the east and it's still not really coming up...

 

[Max Sinister]

If we get good ol´franz josef strauss to live to 1990, we could get some irritations in western europe with leftist media puroposefully misunderstanding him and Jockel Fischer, Cohn-Bandit & Jutta von Dithfurth running berserk with warnings about "new militarism".

If some christian democrats hadn't had stupid ideas about nuclear armament for Germany and revisioning the Oder-Neisse-line, the Greens hadn't had any reason to "run berserk about new militarism". There's a reason why a democracy isn't a democracy without an opposition.

 

[Steffen]

Not entirely correct. Every visitor had to change 25 DM per person and per day into east German money - most people couldn't spend all that money since the prices were low and there wasn't much to buy. The GDR made some money that way (but not enough).

Yes, it leads to a piling up of meissen porcelain or wooden dwarfes from the erzgebirge. i wanted to make the point that such agreements were in place, the visits to old grandmothers could not have saved the commies.

Stop raving. The difference between Greens/Social democrats and the SED is a lot bigger than between, let's say, Strauss and Schönhuber.

i referred to left-wing social democrats and greens of the late 80s, the lafontaines and v. ditfurths. In the state of mind of Schily´s banana comment.

similarities between Strauss and Schönhuber, well, they shared the same first letter in the name, thats all I give you in this point

 

[Steffen]

If some christian democrats hadn't had stupid ideas about nuclear armament for Germany and revisioning the Oder-Neisse-line, the Greens hadn't had any reason to "run berserk about new militarism". There's a reason why a democracy isn't a democracy without an opposition.

I can´t remember anybody with something like a ongoing political career had said anything about nuclear weapons, the other point nearly as obscure.

 

[Susano]

Oh, for <random deity>'s sake! Lafontain ewas pretty leftist, yes, but he would not "helped out his east german buddies" in the way you described it, Steffen! Thats a cheap partisan shot! Whatever else he may have been, Lafontaine was still a democrat - something you couldnt say about the SED regime.

OTOH, I cant see whats wrong with debatting the (wrong, IMO) Oder-Neiße-Line.

...

Yeah, we have managed it now, too. Seemingly us Germans, too, can change a valid discussion about recent history in a political discussion
Back to the point. Whcih wasnt even a "scary Germany", but a "surviving East Germany"

 

[Steffen]

Oh, for <random deity>'s sake! Lafontain ewas pretty leftist, yes, but he would not "helped out his east german buddies" in the way you described it, Steffen! Thats a cheap partisan shot! Whatever else he may have been, Lafontaine was still a democrat - something you couldnt say about the SED regime.

OTOH, I cant see whats wrong with debatting the (wrong, IMO) Oder-Neiße-Line.

...

Yeah, we have managed it now, too. Seemingly us Germans, too, can change a valid discussion about recent history in a political discussion
Back to the point. Whcih wasnt even a "scary Germany", but a "surviving East Germany"

OK, let´s set aside the differences and summarize the result: we don´t see much chance for the Ostzone (couldn´t resist). And I stop talking about the world economist from saarbrücken, if FJS is also not attacked.

Maybe i´m a bit touchy because a bunch of PDS-SPD activists in the bench behind me at university really go on my nerves.

back to business:
What I have never understood about the acceptance of the
the Oder-neiße Line is where on this line stettin is situated.

Hey, and that´s the great thing about our social market economy:

We could afford a war to regain the territories, but the financial transfers when establishing the pension system, structural fonds aso. would bancrupt us )

 

[Mike Collins]

How about if East Germany is ruled by some Kim Il Sung type of tyrant who never untightens the screws?

 

[Susano]

Haha. I think we can manage a "scary germany" scenario very well if one of us came to power, steffen

Yes, ultimately, the GDR is doomed to fail. But lets say it reforms, and is thus bled to death, slowly, by population migration. Reunification delayed by 10,15 years. How does this effect the world?

 

[Steffen]

Haha. I think we can manage a "scary germany" scenario very well if one of us came to power, steffen

Yes, ultimately, the GDR is doomed to fail. But lets say it reforms, and is thus bled to death, slowly, by population migration. Reunification delayed by 10,15 years. How does this effect the world?

Part one: WORKING ON THAT ALREADY!!

part two:

1994 Kohl loses the national election,

after having to go for hard measures without the transfer money, the gdr, which surely will be renamed, will start to be in economical better shape compared to OTL, with economic progress like the new EU members and some starting advantages like easier access to western cash, only the saxon dialect as a speech barrier -

In 1994, as before said, I see Kohl lose the election with the same malaise following as now.

Ok, but it will take certain time of economic downfall in western germany to significantly change the way the work is done, And this downlfall will come, as the fundamental economical data for western germany doesn´t change so much.

2006: chancellor-candidate R. Koch, with a reunification platform, which is met by serious opposition by Whoever is in charge in the GDR.


But: What happens with Berlin?

It´s a hard one juficially with the administration based on Potsdam accord, so the powers have their say,

can west berlin stay as a high- price/ high-tax/ high-wage island in a prospering "DDR"?

And reuniting Greater Berlin will face the objection of the DDR, as it´s their CAPITAL.

 

[MerryPrankster]

"If some christian democrats hadn't had stupid ideas about nuclear armament for Germany and revisioning the Oder-Neisse-line"

I could see why those ideas would be impractial (though I don't foresee WWIII as a result of German nukes, no matter what Germanophobes have to say about it). "Stupid" however, seems rather harsh.

 

[TRoehl]

An East German Bomb

I remember Tom Clancy writing in "The Sum of All Fears" about a fictional secret East German A-Bomb project. Supposing that they have and succeed in such a program, what effect would the East Germans having a small nuclear weapons stash have on all this?

 

[Fiji]

Troehl: I can definitly see the FRG going
"hmm, we give up weapons we never really wanted in the first place and we get to reunify AND look like nice guys to the rest of the world? it's a deal!"

so the first foreign power (CIS/Russia, USA, NATO, UN, ...) that comes knocking while exclaiming "give up the nukes!" will score big in the PR department.

 

[Redbeard]

I think we will only need a sligth hesitation of Kohl's, and the reunification is postponed/cancelled. in OTL Kohl utilised a very narrow window of opportunity mainly dependent on Gorbatjov (sp?) and Bush not actively opposing a quick unification. That kept Mitterand, Thatcher and other stern opponents at bay.

If GDR is established as an independent country, it would however implode in very short time. Without the wall and without the massive Federal German investments initiated and promised after the reunification I guess most east Germans will literally flee GDR and cause chaos and unrest in the Federal Republic. In the GDR will only be left the very old and sick, the old core from before the wall + perhaps a small group of dreamers (incl. neo-nazi?). The totally clapped out status of GDR will be even more evident in the absense of direct Federal responsibility and investment.

In probably less than a year the surrounding world will probably have to do somekind of intervention, perhaps in a civil war/famine like situation in GDR. The Federal Republic might use the chance to commit more countries in reraising the area, but I doubt anybody not-German can be talked into anything but symbolic contributions.

IMO Kohl was a very great statesman, no matter what else he may have fiddled with, and no matter all the difficulties experienced now, all alternatives were/are far worse.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[valio_98]

end the Cold War even earlier then...

If we transfer the 1989 situation just 15 years ahead, with a breakdown of the soviet union and the communist order, the changes would not be so big...

OK, 15 yrs is too short. Let's move the end of the Cold War further back to
make sure the fare from Nazi resurection is strong enough in the West, so
countries such as France and the UK would not support a unification.

Unfiortunately I haven't got a good PoD that can bring down the Soviet Union
in the early 60's...

 

[valio_98]

end the Cold War even earlier then...

If we transfer the 1989 situation just 15 years ahead, with a breakdown of the soviet union and the communist order, the changes would not be so big...

OK, 15 yrs is too short. Let's move the end of the Cold War further back to
make sure the fare from Nazi resurection is strong enough in the West, so
countries such as France and the UK would not support a unification.

Unfiortunately I haven't got a good PoD that can bring down the Soviet Union
in the early 60's...

 

[Steffen]

hm. An east germany with some nuclear weapons could as well open the window of opportunity for reunification much further, if we look at the problems with nuclear proliferation.

The "GDR" will be looked on as unstable. So one could think that for the sceptical NATO partners like Maggie T. and Mitterand, a united Germany which will scrap the nuclear weapons will look more stable than a unstable semi-communist state which will uses his weapons on the bargaining table.

BTW; every year I attend a quite boring october 3rd reception (day of the reunification) hosted by my party, but two years ago, a guy running a Stasi memorial institution was invited as guest speaker.

He told that they have put together shreddered documents that the Stasi planned for reuification since the early 80s, with courses on entrepreneurship, economical calculation etc. so that they can get off quite well.

 

[TRoehl]

Getting Rid Of Gorby?

I just finished reading the excellent novel Rift Zone (I highly recommend it) in which the East German leadership (led by Honecker) realizes that Moscow has been scheeming to undermine them. In response, the GDR leadership authorizes the HVA/Stasi to find a way to get rid of Gorby and replace him with a hardline leadership group in Moscow who will in turn prop up the GDR.

Thoughts?

 

[Susano]

Somehow I dont think the East German intelligence services could stand up to their sovbjet equivalents. So, basically, what you propose is a senario where Gobatchov dies and is replaced by hardliners.

However, that would creta enot only a local effect on the GDR, but on the entire world... Did we realyl look for THIS?