DBWI: Successful Partition of Poland-Lithuania?

[Deleted member 97083]

With hindsight, the Osteuropa Conspiracy, or the Prussian-Austrian-Russian attempt to partition and destroy the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, seems like one of the most hare-brained plans ever made. Poland-Lithuania was a great power, and while not at the height of its power like in the early 17th century before the Deluge, it was certainly still a strong realm. The Polish Hussars made for a strong offense, and the vast size of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania made for effective defense-in-depth. One is hard-pressed to find examples of historical great powers who could have fallen, even against a strong alliance, without already being in decline.

Certainly then, it seems strange that the Osteuropa conspirators thought they could destroy the Polish and Lithuanians in one war. Yet, there might have been a way this one-war, bizarre plan could have happened successfully. (Or if not in one war, there could be a short series of wars, preserving the balance of power with each.)

Perhaps if the "Liberum veto" survived into the 18th century, other foreign powers would have been able to halt important proceedings of the Sejm? In that case, decades of corruption and deterioration could lead to a weakening of the Polish army. If the situation got bad enough, foreign troops could have been present on the eve of the Conspiracy, allowing for a swift, surprising defeat of the Polish-Lithuanian army.

Assuming that's the case, then how does Europe develop with the absence of the Kingdom of Poland and Grand Duchy of Lithuania? What would the 19th century even be like?

 

[DanMcCollum]

That would have been a disaster. Without the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, would there have been the beacon of democracy in Europe? Maybe the United States, but its questionable whether the American rebels would even have been able to secure their independence without the military advisors that Poland sent to assist. This would have completely rewritten the history of the world and I could see the Parliamentary Democracies of Germany, Italy and France never having developed.

Back to the question, is it possible that the Sejm could have simply elected a weak King who was unable to deal with the pressure coming from Prussia, Austria and Russia?

 

[water123]

The Turks would definitely have a better hold on Europe. The PLC was a dying beast either way, and with most of the border regions set to go to the bloody Austrians, it would have been 1683 all over again but this time nobody would be there to stop the Turks. Especially when one considers the Ottoman Renaissance (OOC: I assume this butterflies away the French Revolution if it hampers the American one, and thus a centralization of the Ottoman Empire including Egypt and rapid westernization was still possible since the French never burned it out) was right around the corner, it is a wonder that the Poles survived OTL, not to even begin to think about what the Austrians would suffer through.

 

[Whiteshore]

I could argue that the United States of America probably be a weaker entity if it survives at all as Polish assistance to the American revolution is what ensured the USA, in addition to the 13 colonies, was able to get the state of Acadia in the Treaty of Warsaw and led to the "special relationship" between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the United States of America.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Achaemenid Rome

Perhaps if the "Liberum veto" survived into the 18th century, other foreign powers would have been able to halt important proceedings of the Sejm? In that case, decades of corruption and deterioration could lead to a weakening of the Polish army. If the situation got bad enough, foreign troops could have been present on the eve of the Conspiracy, allowing for a swift, surprising defeat of the Polish-Lithuanian army.

Theoretically possible, although the Deluge thankfully cured most of the Polish-Lithuanian noblemen from their more stupid believes. Those, who did not get smarter after that, were crushed during failed rebellion led by Lubomirski, who among other things wanted to keep liberum veto. So perhaps if Lubomirski won and John Casimir reforms failed...

Originally posted by DanMcCollum

Back to the question, is it possible that the Sejm could have simply elected a weak King who was unable to deal with the pressure coming from Prussia, Austria and Russia?

Sejm didn't elect Polish kings. Initially all noblemen had a right to vote and since the end of the XVIIth century that right was given to every free Pole with income above certain level (which, BTW, eliminated a large number of poor noblemen).
Two, a weak man would have had a poor chance to become a king. It took strength, intelligence and charisma to get support from various factions in the PLC.

Originally posted by Aqua817

The Turks would definitely have a better hold on Europe. The PLC was a dying beast either way, and with most of the border regions set to go to the bloody Austrians, it would have been 1683 all over again but this time nobody would be there to stop the Turks. Especially when one considers the Ottoman Renaissance was right around the corner, it is a wonder that the Poles survived OTL, not to even begin to think about what the Austrians would suffer through.

One might argue that with Polish gains Austria would be strong enough to keep the Ottomans in check, perhaps even pushed them back.
And PLC survivial against the OE was not a miracle. It was Marshall Dąbrowski and King Andrew' strategy. Risky, I know, but efficient. Polish incursion into Ottoman occupied Hungary made the Turks furious, the Ottoman armies got overconfident after passing the Carpathians mountains chasing retreating Poles and besieging Cracow, so they left their supply routes unprotected. The battle of Racławice of 1794 is a classical example why it is a very bad idea. Even if you have 3 to 1 advantage, it doesn't change the fact that without enough ammunition and food your army is simply a hungry mob with spears instead of muskets. With their main force anihilated, the Ottomans were vulnerable to the Polish and Cossack counteroffensive. No miracle, just good planning.

Originally posted by Whiteshore

I could argue that the United States of America probably be a weaker entity if it survives at all as Polish assistance to the American revolution is what ensured the USA, in addition to the 13 colonies, was able to get the state of Acadia in the Treaty of Warsaw and led to the "special relationship" between the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the United States of America.

Yes, I know, PLC loves to brag about how they helped the Americans but let's not exaggerate. Sure, Poles engaged a large British force in Hannover and kept it from being sent to America; sure, Polish muskets and cannosn helped General Arnold a lot. And yes, I agree, that Polish instructors were very useful, especially considering the fact they practically created American cavalry and Engineers Corps (while the French trained artillery and infantry). But it would not work without the French Navy kicking British butts and actually transporting all that supplies and men across the Atlantic. Only the Poles were polite enough and didn't remind the Americans about their help at every opportunity (unlike the French), so the Americans like them better. And PLC didn't act because of some sympathy towards the Americans - PLC was fighting Prussia due to that OstEuropa Conspiracy, and Britain was Prussia's ally. Enemy of my enemy is my friend.

 

[avernite]

Pff, as if demcoracy relied on Poland. The Dutch Republic was, with all its deficiencies, far more democratic - and also the first nation to recognize American independence (though the subsequent fighting wasn't the Netherlands' finest hour by a long shot )

Also, everyone's way overselling the 'conspiracy' - a lie cooked up by the Poliths if anything. Sure, Prussia Austria and Russia attacked Poland, but noone thinks Sweden wanted to annex all of Poland just because they overran it during the Deluge (they wanted their king on the throne, sure, and claims on disputed land recognised, but partitioning it would never be on the table once the dust settled). To destroy the PLC, you'd need the Poliths to consistently annoy their neighbours not just once, but several times (go one, everyone presses claims, go two and up, everyone grabs what he can get since they're out of claims, go umpteen, Poland is annexed). It's not like any other serious European power got annexed - the closest was the Franco-English attempt to partition the Dutch Republic, and history shows just how many countries came to the aid of the Dutch because the very concept was considered ridiculous. Wipe out a European Power? Impossible.

 

[DanMcCollum]

Pff, as if demcoracy relied on Poland. The Dutch Republic was, with all its deficiencies, far more democratic - and also the first nation to recognize American independence (though the subsequent fighting wasn't the Netherlands' finest hour by a long shot )

No one here is doubting the influence of the Dutch Republic either. However, Poland was, by that point, the longest, functioning, Republic in Europe (albeit, one ran by a King) and the aid it offered to the Americans was instrumental in them gaining their independence. No, they didn't sent any armies (although there was a few skirmishes between the Polish and Royal navies in the Baltic), but their military advisors helped whip the Colonial military into a fighting force in a surprisingly short amount of time. Don't forget than roughly a fifth of the general staff of the American army was made up of Polish 'advisors' by that point and how many more American officers were trained by Poles?

Also, on a cultural level, many of the great Democratic thinkers from France, Germany and Britain often studied in or visited Poland, not to mention Polish thinkers themselves. How would western civilization have turned out without the works of Andrzej Koszykowski? You really can't overestimate the influence that Poland had on democratic and republican movements during the 19th century in Europe; especially due to the close cultural connections that Poland had with nations such as France (Poland even sheltered many French intellectuals following the uprising against the Monarchy in the late 19th century!)

 

[Kirook]

OOC: I really want to read this TL now.

 

[Skallagrim]

If the PLC had been removed from history, that would have some implications for other multi-ethnic states. The PLC's ethnic settlement, which assured a certain autonomy to its various ethnic groups, essentially became the blueprint for the federal model that Austria-Hungary later adopted as well. come to think of it, the Ottomans probably based their reforms on the PLC as well, albeit indirectly. If they had not granted that partial autonomy to the periphery, their Empire would probably have started crumbling at the edhes, instead of stretching from the Austrian border to the coasts of Aden.

One might even argue that such successes were the cause that led the British to turn the "white dominions" of their empire into the Imperial Federation we know today.

Without the PLC's example, what would have happened to these states? Would there still be the United States of Austria, or would it have either fallen apart or become an unitary state with suppressed minorities? What would have become of the Ottomans? And would there be a British Federation and Commonwealth? The survival of the British Empire as it once was seems unlikely, but without the PLC to provide an example of federalism (and Austria following that lead), might the British empire just have devolved into merely a loose commonwealth, without the core Federation that we know?

 

[DanMcCollum]

OOC: I really want to read this TL now.

I kinda do too!

 

[seraphim74]

Pff, as if demcoracy relied on Poland. The Dutch Republic was, with all its deficiencies, far more democratic - and also the first nation to recognize American independence (though the subsequent fighting wasn't the Netherlands' finest hour by a long shot )

Also, everyone's way overselling the 'conspiracy' - a lie cooked up by the Poliths if anything. Sure, Prussia Austria and Russia attacked Poland, but noone thinks Sweden wanted to annex all of Poland just because they overran it during the Deluge (they wanted their king on the throne, sure, and claims on disputed land recognised, but partitioning it would never be on the table once the dust settled). To destroy the PLC, you'd need the Poliths to consistently annoy their neighbours not just once, but several times (go one, everyone presses claims, go two and up, everyone grabs what he can get since they're out of claims, go umpteen, Poland is annexed). It's not like any other serious European power got annexed - the closest was the Franco-English attempt to partition the Dutch Republic, and history shows just how many countries came to the aid of the Dutch because the very concept was considered ridiculous. Wipe out a European Power? Impossible.

A lie? Coordinated attack from 3 neighbouring countries was a pure coincidence? Perhaps Russia, Prussia and Austria didn't want to take whole PLC at once, but with loss of the territories Belin and Vienna demanded would seriously weaken the PLC, making it vulnerable to another land grab (Russian demands were not as damaging). If PLC lost the Three Black Eagles' War, as they called it, all those powers would have been able to dismantle PLC piece by piece. Whether they wantoed to do it, is another thing, but papers captured by Polish Army in Konigsberg seemed to confirm they at least entertained that idea. And no, they were not forgeries. Why should Poles lie?
You also forgot a significant factor. All those absolutist monarchs felt threatenedy PLC political system. Didn't Prussia had to quell at least one rebellion, when people demanded a parliament similar to Polish Sejm? Wasn't Austrian Emperor actually forced to do that after he lost the war? Which, BTW and IMHO, actually saved Austria from civil war.
And Poles coudn't actually count on any foreign help. Who would dare to do that against 2 powers? The Ottomans?

 

[marcinL]

With hindsight, the Osteuropa Conspiracy, or the Prussian-Austrian-Russian attempt to partition and destroy the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, seems like one of the most hare-brained plans ever made. Poland-Lithuania was a great power, and while not at the height of its power like in the early 17th century before the Deluge, it was certainly still a strong realm. The Polish Hussars made for a strong offense, and the vast size of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania made for effective defense-in-depth. One is hard-pressed to find examples of historical great powers who could have fallen, even against a strong alliance, without already being in decline.

Certainly then, it seems strange that the Osteuropa conspirators thought they could destroy the Polish and Lithuanians in one war. Yet, there might have been a way this one-war, bizarre plan could have happened successfully. (Or if not in one war, there could be a short series of wars, preserving the balance of power with each.)

Perhaps if the "Liberum veto" survived into the 18th century, other foreign powers would have been able to halt important proceedings of the Sejm? In that case, decades of corruption and deterioration could lead to a weakening of the Polish army. If the situation got bad enough, foreign troops could have been present on the eve of the Conspiracy, allowing for a swift, surprising defeat of the Polish-Lithuanian army.

Assuming that's the case, then how does Europe develop with the absence of the Kingdom of Poland and Grand Duchy of Lithuania? What would the 19th century even be like?

The plan wasn't that hare brained as many think and PLC got really lucky. If Russian Guards Corps wasn't delayed by the outbreak of cholera and entered Lithuania a mere day or two earlier, general Poniatowski's maneuver would end in disaster instead of brilliant success - instead of beating Russian armies one at a time, he would end up surrounded from three sides and massacred, and then it would be only the national guard and weak Samogitian Division between them and Warsaw, and Polish main army would find itself between two enemies, or had to send a new delaying corps to the east. This in turn would likely mean no quick victory that practically knocked out Prussians, and the whole affair would turn into prolonged war of attrition, one that PLC could not win.

 

[seraphim74]

The plan wasn't that hare brained as many think and PLC got really lucky. If Russian Guards Corps wasn't delayed by the outbreak of cholera and entered Lithuania a mere day or two earlier, general Poniatowski's maneuver would end in disaster instead of brilliant success - instead of beating Russian armies one at a time, he would end up surrounded from three sides and massacred, and then it would be only the national guard and weak Samogitian Division between them and Warsaw, and Polish main army would find itself between two enemies, or had to send a new delaying corps to the east. This in turn would likely mean no quick victory that practically knocked out Prussians, and the whole affair would turn into prolonged war of attrition, one that PLC could not win.

Yes. Poles were very lucky. Or was it only luck? The Russians from time to time still mumble about "biological warfare". Nobody can prove anything, but Poniatowski started his manouver exactly day after the beginning of the outbreak. There is no way he would have got information about Russian troops getting ill at the time.
OTOH Poniatowski himself always claimed that he had taken a calculated risk and simply hoped for poor coordination between Russian armies. Considering PLC guerillas and dragoons managed to cut communication between main Russian forces in critical first 2 days of the Seven Days Battle, it is a plausible explanation.
There are also serious doubts whether deliberately infecting Russian troops was actually possible. There was no cholera outbreak in PLC at the time so Poles might have problems with finding a source of cholera bacterium. Not to mention such action would be very risky for Poles themselves.

 

[avernite]

A lie? Coordinated attack from 3 neighbouring countries was a pure coincidence? Perhaps Russia, Prussia and Austria didn't want to take whole PLC at once, but with loss of the territories Belin and Vienna demanded would seriously weaken the PLC, making it vulnerable to another land grab (Russian demands were not as damaging). If PLC lost the Three Black Eagles' War, as they called it, all those powers would have been able to dismantle PLC piece by piece. Whether they wantoed to do it, is another thing, but papers captured by Polish Army in Konigsberg seemed to confirm they at least entertained that idea. And no, they were not forgeries. Why should Poles lie?
You also forgot a significant factor. All those absolutist monarchs felt threatenedy PLC political system. Didn't Prussia had to quell at least one rebellion, when people demanded a parliament similar to Polish Sejm? Wasn't Austrian Emperor actually forced to do that after he lost the war? Which, BTW and IMHO, actually saved Austria from civil war.
And Poles coudn't actually count on any foreign help. Who would dare to do that against 2 powers? The Ottomans?

The Ottomans, French, heck maybe even the Scandinavians and Dutch (weaker though than they had been) could have helped Poland.

You see, the point is, I believe fully there was an alliance to attack Poland-Lithuania, noone disputes that. What I dispute is that they were after annihilation, or that those three competing powers could actually stick to cooperation long enough to make it work if they had been. Sure, the Commonwealth could have fallen in status to something akin to the Dutch Republic, a has-been power, but before you know it Prussia and Austria will be squabbling over Silesia, or the Russians will think they can take the whole thing through a puppet monarch rather than having to share with the Germans, or...

 

[marcinL]

Yes. Poles were very lucky. Or was it only luck? The Russians from time to time still mumble about "biological warfare". Nobody can prove anything, but Poniatowski started his manouver exactly day after the beginning of the outbreak. There is no way he would have got information about Russian troops getting ill at the time.
OTOH Poniatowski himself always claimed that he had taken a calculated risk and simply hoped for poor coordination between Russian armies. Considering PLC guerillas and dragoons managed to cut communication between main Russian forces in critical first 2 days of the Seven Days Battle, it is a plausible explanation.
There are also serious doubts whether deliberately infecting Russian troops was actually possible. There was no cholera outbreak in PLC at the time so Poles might have problems with finding a source of cholera bacterium. Not to mention such action would be very risky for Poles themselves.

Nah, that bio-warfare stuff is a nonsense. Yes, poor doctor von Kempt's (Guards Gorps chief medic) wife was a Polishwoman from Poniatowski's client family, but I don't see her emptying the chamberpot into the camp wells or something like that, and he was actually doing what he could to contain the outbreak and help its victims. It is pretty clear if you read the letters between him, army command, the Empress, and medical faculty in Petersburg, and the Guards Corps reports, it was the doctors who would replace him and the corps's staff officers who screwed up when he had things almost under control.

As for Poniatowski, he claims many things, but there are many works suggesting he was a pathological gambler. He tended to be lucky though, at least at war, of course not that day when he rode with two thousand cavalry right into Ottoman trap and got himself and all his men killed.

 

[marcinL]

The Ottomans, French, heck maybe even the Scandinavians and Dutch (weaker though than they had been) could have helped Poland.

You see, the point is, I believe fully there was an alliance to attack Poland-Lithuania, noone disputes that. What I dispute is that they were after annihilation, or that those three competing powers could actually stick to cooperation long enough to make it work if they had been. Sure, the Commonwealth could have fallen in status to something akin to the Dutch Republic, a has-been power, but before you know it Prussia and Austria will be squabbling over Silesia, or the Russians will think they can take the whole thing through a puppet monarch rather than having to share with the Germans, or...

This wasn't the first attempt to dismember Poland, and the international position of PLC at this time was rather weak, to put it mildly. Isolated, it would be more fitting description. I would like to remind you that the French didn't move their asses until the thing was practically decided, and only to grab some Habsburg city they wanted to conquer for some time, and only after the war Polish-French alliance become somewhat solid.

Russia was too weak to dominate PLC on her own, they tried and failed.

 

[seraphim74]

Nah, that bio-warfare stuff is a nonsense. Yes, poor doctor von Kempt's (Guards Gorps chief medic) wife was a Polishwoman from Poniatowski's client family, but I don't see her emptying the chamberpot into the camp wells or something like that, and he was actually doing what he could to contain the outbreak and help its victims. It is pretty clear if you read the letters between him, army command, the Empress, and medical faculty in Petersburg, and the Guards Corps reports, it was the doctors who would replace him and the corps's staff officers who screwed up when he had things almost under control.

As for Poniatowski, he claims many things, but there are many works suggesting he was a pathological gambler. He tended to be lucky though, at least at war, of course not that day when he rode with two thousand cavalry right into Ottoman trap and got himself and all his men killed.

Yes, doctor von Kempt really did his best. Only thanks to his efforts the Guards Corps was able to march at all. Ironically, that ended with its destruction by Poniatowski.
And Poniatowski was indeed a controversial figure. Very brave, popular among soldiers, not as much among the officers because of his large ego and yes, gambling problem. He was also a poor looser, even in friendly games of cards or chess. But on battlefield he was brilliant. Problem was he took risks so many times and won that he started to believe his luck would last forever. Pity he took the Light Brigade with him.

 

[avernite]

This wasn't the first attempt to dismember Poland, and the international position of PLC at this time was rather weak, to put it mildly. Isolated, it would be more fitting description. I would like to remind you that the French didn't move their asses until the thing was practically decided, and only to grab some Habsburg city they wanted to conquer for some time, and only after the war Polish-French alliance become somewhat solid.

Russia was too weak to dominate PLC on her own, they tried and failed.

You're again focusing on the short term. Yeah, other people had attacked the PLC before, usually unsuccessfully, so large alliances were formed to beat it. Yeah, the PLC was isolated, because it was winning so much noone cared to save it (and the attackers had halfway decent claim to what they wanted).

Once carved down by the APR allies it would have become a weak state in the orbit of some larger power that would support it, like say Portugal. Spain was way bigger than Portugal, and could have tried taking it alone, but they never got round to it with other pressing matters and such. Austria, Prussia or Russia would always have a bigger concern than Poland at that exact time once it stopped being a viable threat to them, so not be able to go on attacking it - and if so, the sensible solution was to keep the PLC in place rather than let the other(s) of the three grow at Polish expense.

 

[The Forty-Eighth Rōnin]

Dabrowski won't become a Marshal, that's for sure. But I can see him leading some nationalist movement to preserve Poland.