Maybe Khruschev gets more bellicose with Kennedy, the US lands troops, and the anti-Khruschev faction makes its move just as its sources say that the US troopships are leaving harbor? Khruschev is shot by an assassin, and the crisis is tersely resolved just as US troops land on Cuban shores. Maybe a few FROG rockets are fired.
Cuban Missle Crisis Leads To Nuclear War
- Thread starter shane
- Start date
Would the Soviet commander in Cuba having a change of heart and deciding that whatever happened in Cuba, exterminating mankind and destroying the USSR and the USA wasn't worth it?
What if one of his guards has a change of heart and shoots him? Maybe the guy who would succeed him in case of his death begins to forment a conspiracy in case it ever comes to that...
So if this ever happens, the most probable event involves the nuclear destruction of western civilization?
Great.
Great.
Romulus Augustulus said:
Depends what happens after the nuclear exchange. Just as importantly, the USA only gets hit by about 75 warheads. There's still plenty of the USA left to recover I would have thought.
Western Europe, though, might be in for one hell of a fight if the Warsaw Pact invades. That's probably the biggest variable. I'd say it's a 50-50 bet. And NATO may well & truly stop the invasion not far from it's starting point.
But the biggest outcome will be the hit the USSR takes. Just in ICBMs alone, the USA had (in 1962) some 203 warheads made up of various models - the Atlas, Titan & some Minuteman. There was also 144 SLBMs (all Polaris) which were vastly superior to their Soviet counterparts.
There were also numerous IRBMs stationed in NATO countries all aimed at the USSR as well, not to mention the large number of USAF strategic bombers.
So yes, the USA suffers a bad hit, but I'd extremely doubt that the USSR wil survive more than a day or two. This, inturn, could save Western Europe from any major combat.
I would say that Western Civilisation survives, albeit battered & bruised. The Communist Block, however, falls apart.
Resurrection Day (smacks head) of course, thanks for the reminder.
How likely is it the Warsaw Pact countries would invade W/Germany etc if the USSR was smashed by a full-scale US nuclear attack? If I was sitting in Warsaw, Prague, Budapest etc and the situation was going all to hell I'm pretty sure I'd tell my Soviet "adviser" to go f@#k himself and concentrate on what I was going to do once the dust settles.
Or if we were already at war I'd be calling NATO asking for a cease-fire. The eastern bloc countries can't beat the west if the USSR has been turned into the world's largest carpark (at least not without suffering the same fate) so there's no point continuing the war, especially as there's much more important things to consider, such as the huge fallout cloud coming out of the former Soviet Union, not to mention the ridiculously huge number of sick refugees.
I wonder what Soviet troops stationed in eastern bloc countries would do if the Motherland was destroyed and there was no going back? Would they attack the West for revenge, or just sit stunned, or maybe get caught up in firefights against Warsaw Pact troops whose governments have decided not to follow the USSR into oblivion?
How likely is it the Warsaw Pact countries would invade W/Germany etc if the USSR was smashed by a full-scale US nuclear attack? If I was sitting in Warsaw, Prague, Budapest etc and the situation was going all to hell I'm pretty sure I'd tell my Soviet "adviser" to go f@#k himself and concentrate on what I was going to do once the dust settles.
Or if we were already at war I'd be calling NATO asking for a cease-fire. The eastern bloc countries can't beat the west if the USSR has been turned into the world's largest carpark (at least not without suffering the same fate) so there's no point continuing the war, especially as there's much more important things to consider, such as the huge fallout cloud coming out of the former Soviet Union, not to mention the ridiculously huge number of sick refugees.
I wonder what Soviet troops stationed in eastern bloc countries would do if the Motherland was destroyed and there was no going back? Would they attack the West for revenge, or just sit stunned, or maybe get caught up in firefights against Warsaw Pact troops whose governments have decided not to follow the USSR into oblivion?
Depends on the situation, but on the whole, I would imagine it would likely lead to more fighting......and continued escalation.....
Maku said:
Like I said, it's probably a 50-50 bet. The Soviets stationed throughout eastern Europe may just sit back in horror not knowing what to do or, as you've pointed out, they may attack in seeking revenge. Either way, however, with the USSR effectively destroyed, the Western Europe should survive whatever happens, whilst the Communist Block pretty well falls to pieces.
Wendell said:
Hence I give a 25% error margin for Soviet missiles.
Mind you I don't know why people make this claim, that Soviet/Russian missiles are crap, considering the rockets they use for their space program, which are essentially ICBMs, work perfectly fine other than a handful of incidents. In fact if we use the space rockets as a guild, considering the American Altas & Titan rockets were originally ICBMs, it's the American ICBMs which are actually worse than their Soviet counterparts.
IMHO I don't see anything happening to Japan other than they'll be screaming about all the nuclear fallout that they'll have to deal with.
There are several U.S. bases in he country. Don't think that they would be knocked out?DMA said:Hence I give a 25% error margin for Soviet missiles.
Mind you I don't know why people make this claim, that Soviet/Russian missiles are crap, considering the rockets they use for their space program, which are essentially ICBMs, work perfectly fine other than a handful of incidents. In fact if we use the space rockets as a guild, considering the American Altas & Titan rockets were originally ICBMs, it's the American ICBMs which are actually worse than their Soviet counterparts.
IMHO I don't see anything happening to Japan other than they'll be screaming about all the nuclear fallout that they'll have to deal with.
Wendell said:
Depends how the fast the war comes & how well organised thus any Soviet response will be. If it all starts through some unplanned incident, like the naval scenario where the shooting simply starts & quickly spread, I'd dare say Japan will be spared any attack.
If, however, everyone, both USA & USSR, have restrained themselves until the last second, so that they both have their war plans at the ready, then yes, the US bases in Japan will probably be attacked with nukes. But it will probably only be the US bases. Attacks on Japan proper, be they military &/or civilian, would come latter if required. But IMHO it won't come to that.
Wendell said:
Well you don't need overwhelming attack. Afterall there's only so many missiles & they have to make them go around (as Alaska, The US bases in The Phillipines & W. Germany etc would be targeted as well). So the Soviets would use IRBMs, the same ones as in Cuba, on the US bases in Japan. They may only double up - say two missiles per target. That's two 1Mt Bombs. I'd have to look up the US list to be certain, but to hazard a guess I'd dare say most major Japanese cities would be spared, although they would have to deal with nuclear fallout. But Japan, for the most part, would miss most of the attack.
Wendell said:
Which ever city is the largest that survives the nuclear attack. Basically throw a dart at a map of the US. If I was to run the odds, however, we maybe talking somewhere like Vegas, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, or Santa Fe. Maybe Denver. Somewhere in that region I would say.
nope. As both a state capital city and home to a big AFB, Cheyenne is multiple targeted...Wendell said: