A little exercise showing why the opposition in Canada (Liberals, NDP) wants some form of electoral reform, and why the government (Conservatives) does not.
Basically, this was an exercise to show how ranked balloting would work in Canada. I chose that since in my opinion it seems like the most likely type of reform to come to Canada's electoral systems (since a) the Liberals prefer this, and are more likely to form the next government than the NDP, and b) I feel like it'd be easier to pass a ranked-ballot reform than any other type). I took the most recent poll I could find with second-choices listed in depth (
this one by EKOS. It's from May, so it's a bit old, but fortunately it doesn't differ
too much from current polling), applied the regionals, and then narrowed down the second choices until some one over 50% of the vote.
For comparisons sake, I also included what the results would be under first-past-the-post (on the left). The ranked ballot method is on the right.
View attachment 243729
It's amazing the final result, particularly that the Conservatives lose nearly half of the seats they won under normal circumstances. They only win 1 seat west of Ontario (Christian Paradis'), as opposed to 7 under normal circumstances, and 4 (as opposed to 14) in British Columbia, and only 24 (as opposed to 44) in Ontario.
This also wipes out the Bloc, and surprisingly hurts the Greens. It backfires against the Liberals in Quebec, where they go from 33 seats under normal circumstances to 26, since Bloc voters overwhelming named the NDP as their second choice. This results in the unusual occurrence of the Liberals winning more seats in the west (35) than in Quebec or the Atlantic (where they win 29)
And people wonder why Liberals like me support ranked-balloting...