AHC: WWI reduced to Third Balkan War

[BooNZ]

The problem also is that Austria wants to prevent a large Slavic state on the Balkans. TAking Serbia down a notch only to the end that Bulgaria gets stronger is a lose lose situation for Austria.

A-H may have been concerned with a large Slavic state, on the assumption that it would be heavily influenced by Russia. However, a strong Bulgaria would effectively be someone else's problem - namely Serbia, Russia, Greece and/or the Ottomans.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Only in the short run...

 

[BooNZ]

Only in the short run...

Any kind of run for A-H would be an improvement.

An ascendant Bulgaria could act like a diplomatic lightning rod/ distraction, enabling A-H to focus on its own internal issues.

 

[Cook]

I was playing with the idea of the 1905 Russian Revolution blowing up into something far worse, taking Russia away as an ally of Serbia's, but obviously it might butterfly things a bit too much.

The problem with a worse Russian revolution in 1905 is that, as you rightly pointed out, it would impact too significantly the decade between then and the outbreak of war in 1914; the responses in July 1914 of the main players had been shaped by the response of their counterparts in the string of diplomatic incidents from 1900 - 1914; the growing belligerence of Russia, its support for and manipulation of both Serbia and Bulgaria while trying to establish hegemony in the Balkans is an essential factor in that. Without that, not only would the diplomatic responses of the other major powers have been different, but the conspirators in Serbia (Apis in particular) would not have been confident that Russia would back them in war with Austria and would have been less likely to conspire to start such a war with a provocation like the Sarajevo assassinations. Therefore a weak Russia equates to a less aggressive Serbia equates to no assassination equates to no war at all.

We still want the assassination and a resultant Third Balkan War, so changes need to be more subtle and closer to the event.

 

[Cook]

The key is in St Petersburg in days following the assassinations in Sarajevo.

 

[ivanotter]

I also think there were simply too many factors at play.

That said, It might have been possbile for AH to quickly invade Serbia and then do the "halt in Belgrade".

Instead of an entire long front for invasion, Belgrade is after all just across the border and can be held hostage, either after the ultimatum has expired or as a hostage for compliance with the ultimatum.

That looks like a police action and should have been possible even with the limited AH resources.

If Serbia should attack, they will then have proven to be the agressor.

Whether it will avoid anything is really a good question. After all, AH wanted a showdown with Russia and '1914 was just as good as anything else" (according to Conrad).

So maybe this is again one of these where it is nearly impossible to change history.

Ivan

 

[ivanotter]

I also think there were simply too many factors at play.

That said, It might have been possbile for AH to quickly invade Serbia and then do the "halt in Belgrade".

Instead of an entire long front for invasion, Belgrade is after all just across the border and can be held hostage, either after the ultimatum has expired or as a hostage for compliance with the ultimatum.

That looks like a police action and should have been possible even with the limited AH resources.

If Serbia should attack, they will then have proven to be the agressor.

Whether it will avoid anything is really a good question. After all, AH wanted a showdown with Russia and '1914 was just as good as anything else" (according to Conrad).

So maybe this is again one of these where it is nearly impossible to change history.

Ivan

 

[VictorLaszlo]

Having a more intransigent Serbian government that rejects the entire set of Austria-Hungary's demands instead of accepting most of them, followed by an Austro-Hungarian DoW against Serbia is IMHO the best bet to limit the war to the Balkans.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Have the Russian military prepare more options for mobilization BEFORE the war. OTL, Germany jumped in partly because Russia mobilized everybody, not just units near A-H.

Have e.g. Romania be prepared to let Russian troops transit through to Serbia, so Russia is more visibly defending Serbia than attacking A-H.

Have someone in Germany sit on Kaiser Willy once they realize what a Charlie Foxtrot this was going to end up being, and send a strong (private) message to A-H to slow down.

Have SOMEONE jump at the chance provided by the British offer of mediation. (Russia and/or Germany probably. A-H won't, but if they get pressure from Germany they might.)

results:
Serbia will be totally trashed, even if they 'win'. A-H will be devastated, even if they 'win'. The Tsar MIGHT get some breathing room for staving off revolution if Russia 'wins'. Of course, the Tsar being who he is, he'd likely squander it, and revolution happens anyway, just later.

German continues to be THE language of many sciences, and the centre of the world chemical industry, for instance.

 

[Cook]

Have e.g. Romania be prepared to let Russian troops transit through to Serbia...

Quite obviously, that is no longer a Third Balkan War since it involves the Russian Empire.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Quite obviously, that is no longer a Third Balkan War since it involves the Russian Empire.

Why? If it doesn't (directly) involve Germany and doesn't involve France or Britain at all, then it's certainly not a 'world' war. 3rd Balkan war might well be the phrase used. Especially if all the fighting happened IN the Balkans.

 

[LordKalvert]

A-H may have been concerned with a large Slavic state, on the assumption that it would be heavily influenced by Russia. However, a strong Bulgaria would effectively be someone else's problem - namely Serbia, Russia, Greece and/or the Ottomans.

A strong Bulgaria would have been a problem for Serbia, Romania, Greece and the Ottomans which is why the four of them jumped her in the Second Balkan War to the Russian's rejoicing

 

[LordKalvert]

Have the Russian military prepare more options for mobilization BEFORE the war. OTL, Germany jumped in partly because Russia mobilized everybody, not just units near A-H.

Have e.g. Romania be prepared to let Russian troops transit through to Serbia, so Russia is more visibly defending Serbia than attacking A-H.

Have someone in Germany sit on Kaiser Willy once they realize what a Charlie Foxtrot this was going to end up being, and send a strong (private) message to A-H to slow down.

Have SOMEONE jump at the chance provided by the British offer of mediation. (Russia and/or Germany probably. A-H won't, but if they get pressure from Germany they might.)

results:
Serbia will be totally trashed, even if they 'win'. A-H will be devastated, even if they 'win'. The Tsar MIGHT get some breathing room for staving off revolution if Russia 'wins'. Of course, the Tsar being who he is, he'd likely squander it, and revolution happens anyway, just later.

German continues to be THE language of many sciences, and the centre of the world chemical industry, for instance.

The problem, that you allude to, is that Austria is in no mood for mediation. Once they decide on war on Serbia despite Russian objections, Germany really has no choice. Grey cynically tried to get the Germans to stay neutral in an Austo-Russian War which the Kaiser described as "mean" among other epithats.

Germany could not allow Austria to be destroyed and be left naked to the Franco-Russian alliance. Just how long would a German vs. France and Russia war last without Austria? Germany came close to defeat in 1914 and move four Russian armies into East Prussia and see how long that lasts

 

[Cook]

Why? If it doesn't (directly) involve Germany and doesn't involve France or Britain at all...

Except that it would; your scenario has Russia sending forces to fight the Habsburg Empire, that automatically triggers German involvement because of the mutual defence pact between the two Central Powers; likewise France will automatically enter the war because of Russian involvement; Russia entering the war makes it a European war. Russian mobilisation means the same.

British involvement would depend upon the time frame; if a European war is delayed into mid to late August, civil war will have broken out in Ulster and spread across Ireland, rendering British involvement on the continent next to impossible.

 

[ANARCHY_4_ALL]

I'm working on a similar scenario for an alternate world war TL. Though this Third Balkan War eventually does lead to a world war like IOTL. Prior to ITTL First Balkan War, Russia's attempts to ally the Slavic states of Serbia and Bulgaria are realized sooner than OTL. During the war Serbian and Bulgarian troops cooperate far better than OTL. Finally post-war negotiations are settled upon by the two states which leave neither dissatisfied with the other. I'm thinking a reverse OTL Second Balkan War with Greece in Bulgaria's position. This leads to a Third Balkan War between Austria-Hungary and TTL's Balkan League in 1914. Which soon breaks down into a similar situation of OTL. But with an Eastern Front focus.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Except that it would; your scenario has Russia sending forces to fight the Habsburg Empire, that automatically triggers German involvement because of the mutual defence pact between the two Central Powers; likewise France will automatically enter the war because of Russian involvement; Russia entering the war makes it a European war. Russian mobilisation means the same.

Russia sending forces to defend Serbia is different from Russia steamrollering into Galicia. Which is different, in turn, from attacking East Prussia.

Germany is under no obligation to back A-H if A-H is the aggressor.

No way will France get involved if Russia and Germany don't go to war - which would be an excellent reason for Germany to look for good reasons NOT to go to war.

OTL, Germany declared war on Russia, because Russia had no way to partially mobilize, and total mobilization threatened Germany.

Would Germany have declared war anyway? Maybe. But I THINK it should be possible to confine the fighting to the Balkans, with the right circumstances.


OTL, Kaiser Willy was ... over optimistic; things happened too fast for people to sit down and properly think things through; and there was no way for Russia to GET troops to Serbia. Change those, and you might, MIGHT get the war contained.

 

[LordKalvert]

Um, the problem with this is that Russia destroys Austria-Hungry and leaves Germany caught between France and Russia. There's no way that Germany could have that happen even if Austria launched an attack out of the blue

Germany is going to be reduced to the status of the Balkans with the Reich dissolved and tribute going to Russia and France without Austria.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Um, the problem with this is that Russia destroys Austria-Hungry and leaves Germany caught between France and Russia. There's no way that Germany could have that happen even if Austria launched an attack out of the blue

Germany is going to be reduced to the status of the Balkans with the Reich dissolved and tribute going to Russia and France without Austria.

Except that, if this stays a Third Balkan War, and I do agrre it's unlikely, then A-H isnt going to be destroyed. Their army might be, they might lose Bosnia and Transylvania, their morale may collapse, but as long as Russia's main goal is the stated one of protecting Serbia, A-H isnt going to fall apart. They'll still be a Great Power, although a weaker one.

Now. How do we keep Russia from pushing harder? 1) the very threat of Germany intervening. 2) pressure from France and Britain, who dont want to be dragged in. 3) if all the fighting is in the Balkans, the logistics will mean that Russia CANT destroy A-H.

 

[eliphas8]

I would say the best way to do this is remove Foreign Secretary Grey from office, his vagueness when it came to British interest in the conflict did a lot to make the Germans think that Britain wanted no part in the war. When he finally came out and basically said "this will mean war with Britain" the Germans tried their hardest to backpedal from their war footing, but at that point it was just too late to stop the war. Replace Grey with someone either less malicious or less incompetent and Germany will likely never give the Austro-Hungarians the leeway they did. At the same time, another Balkan war in 1914 is very likely anyway due to ottoman naval build up against Greece, which could very plausibly remain contained to the Balkans like all the previous wars in Balkans in those years.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

AH move fast? hmmm.

Without the blank check AH will climb down ish - accept the Serbian response.

It has no other option.

Without a Russian guarantee Serbia may suprise. The AH army is in appalling shape and the addition of second army to the OOB against Serbia is unlikely to make that much of a difference. It gives 19 div vs 11.

The AH divisions are very badly led, poorly trained, with no artillery infantry cooperation and a tactical doctrine involving 150 yd long bayonet charges. And they have both Conrad and Piotorek.