AHC/WI: Delay/ slow down British economic decline post 1870

Saphroneth

Banned
And this is the overall picture:

You seem to consider this evidence that British industry was weak.

However, you're citing... yourself. We don't know what "market" your statistic even means, and in any case it's a little amusing to view "British Westinghouse" and "British Thomson-Houston", manufacturers in Britain of electrical goods, as evidence British manufacturing was weak in that field. Sure, they were owned overseas, but by the same logic much of US manufacturing was built up with British capital investment and thus should be counted against US manufacturing by your metric.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
You seem to consider this evidence that British industry was weak.

However, you're citing... yourself. We don't know what "market" your statistic even means, and in any case it's a little amusing to view "British Westinghouse" and "British Thomson-Houston", manufacturers in Britain of electrical goods, as evidence British manufacturing was weak in that field. Sure, they were owned overseas, but by the same logic much of US manufacturing was built up with British capital investment and thus should be counted against US manufacturing by your metric.

https://books.google.com.vn/books?i...d of british electrical industry 1913&f=false

These subsidiaries relied on designs and innovations from their home countries
 

Saphroneth

Banned
So I'd like to check something at this point.

If something was invented in Britain and manufactured in America, who gets the credit for that?

If something was invented in America and manufactured in Britain, who gets the credit for that?

(Besides, if you go purely by inventions then of course the countries with 130 million people in them (US and German metropoles) are going to be able to produce more inventions than the country with 38 million people - the United Kingdom itself...)
 

Thomas1195

Banned
The problem here is that Britain could have done much better to build up a strong electrical industry of their own. For instance, some state intervention to develop large-scale, centralized electricity supply industry from late 19th century could have resulted in widespread electrification from 1890s-1900s rather than 1920s-1930s. This in turn could create more domestic demand for domestic electrical firms. And some protectionism could have enabled these firms to grow up and become global corporates in the sector.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The problem here is that Britain could have done much better to build up a strong electrical industry of their own. For instance, some state intervention to develop large-scale, centralized electricity supply industry from late 19th century could have resulted in widespread electrification from 1890s-1900s rather than 1920s-1930s. This in turn could create more domestic demand for domestic electrical firms. And some protectionism could have enabled these firms to grow up and become global corporates in the sector.
I'm sure Britain could have done better, but so far as I can tell they were doing pretty well without electrification due to having other ways to fulfil the same needs.

In any case - in the first place that lack of protectionism is kind of what built up the soft trade power that Britain had, and which was so vital in the First World War; in the second place you haven't answered my question. Do you give credit only to fully domestic invention, innovation and production?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
In any case - in the first place that lack of protectionism is kind of what built up the soft trade power that Britain had, and which was so vital in the First World War; in the second place you haven't answered my question. Do you give credit only to fully domestic invention, innovation and production?

Lack of protectionism was the reason why Britain stuck much longer in the Long Depression and its growth stagnated.
 
In 1913 Britain had a GDP per capita of 4900 dollars to Germany's 3600, in 1990 USD. Germany only had 70% of the GDP per capita Britain had. I can hardly see that as a decline. Given that only America surpassed Britain in terms of income levels, I don't think that the data supports your thesis that Britain needs to abandon Laissez Faire when by far the two most Laissez Faire countries ended up becoming the wealthiest.
 
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What should have been done to prevent or at least, slow down British relative economic decline after 1870?

I don't think it can reasonably be prevented. Britain had been the first country to industrialise, which gave its economy an advantage against its competitors, but this advantage was always going to reduce once its competitors began catching up.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
In 1913 Britain had a GDP per capita of 4900 dollars to Germany's 3600, in 1990 USD. Germany only had 70% of the GDP per capita Britain had. I can hardly see that as a decline. Given that only America surpassed Britain in terms of income levels, I don't think that the data supports your thesis that Britain needs to abandon Laissez Faire when by far the two most Laissez Faire countries ended up becoming the wealthiest.
The problem with Britain is that private firms did not invest or invested little in the new industries which are vital in the long run and do not necessarily yield returns immediately. No tariff made them reluctant to do so because the risk of being outcompeted would be very high. In this case, government must intervene, either by subsidies or tariffs. For example, when the development of electricity supply in UK was retarded in the late 19th century, government must intervene.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
I don't think it can reasonably be prevented. Britain had been the first country to industrialise, which gave its economy an advantage against its competitors, but this advantage was always going to reduce once its competitors began catching up.
Or just delay it ot slow it down?
 
The problem with Britain is that private firms did not invest or invested little in the new industries which are vital in the long run and do not necessarily yield returns immediately. No tariff made them reluctant to do so because the risk of being outcompeted would be very high. In this case, government must intervene, either by subsidies or tariffs. For example, when the development of electricity supply in UK was retarded in the late 19th century, government must intervene.
Then why is Germany so poor compared to Britain in 1914?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Then why is Germany so poor compared to Britain in 1914?
It had a much bigger population but a lot of them still worked in agricultural sector, and a lower starting point in 1870.

Britain had stronger service sector, and a more efficient agricultural sector. But Germany outperformed in industries
 
It had a much bigger population but a lot of them still worked in agricultural sector, and a lower starting point in 1870.

Britain had stronger service sector, and a more efficient agricultural sector. But Germany outperformed in industries
Your post feels akin to asking how the US can avoid decline compared to Korea, because Korea has a proportionately large manufacturing even though Korea's income levels are two-thirds of America's and Korean factory workers make less than their American counterparts.

Britain was the second wealthiest country in the world. On net they were much better off than any Great Power other than the US. Germany slightly gained on them as a much poorer country in 1870 that still had lower labor costs and greater room for growth, but still never came close to catching up fully. If Germany was better governed they could have done better than going from 60% of Britains per capita income to 75% over a half a century. They should have caught up in that time frame if they had better economic policies.

Britain only had 40 million people. France has the same, Italy nearly as many, Germany 65 million, America 100 million, Russia 180, Austria-Hungary 52, and Japan 50. Britain can't lead lead the world in every industry. They lack the labor. But looking at a Britain on net, they were still well above Germany per capita in overall output and wealth. If Britain is to remain on top in more industries they need an unrealistic population boom.

Also, newer isn't always more efficient. It often costs money in both the short and long run.

Britain never lost its status as the most developed economy in Europe during this period. I don't really understand what this thread is about.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Your post feels akin to asking how the US can avoid decline compared to Korea, because Korea has a proportionately large manufacturing even though Korea's income levels are two-thirds of America's and Korean factory workers make less than their American counterparts.

Britain was the second wealthiest country in the world. On net they were much better off than any Great Power other than the US. Germany slightly gained on them as a much poorer country in 1870 that still had lower labor costs and greater room for growth, but still never came close to catching up fully. If Germany was better governed they could have done better than going from 60% of Britains per capita income to 75% over a half a century. They should have caught up in that time frame if they had better economic policies.

Britain only had 40 million people. France has the same, Italy nearly as many, Germany 65 million, America 100 million, Russia 180, Austria-Hungary 52, and Japan 50. Britain can't lead lead the world in every industry. They lack the labor. But looking at a Britain on net, they were still well above Germany per capita in overall output and wealth. If Britain is to remain on top in more industries they need an unrealistic population boom.

Also, newer isn't always more efficient. It often costs money in both the short and long run.

Britain never lost its status as the most developed economy in Europe during this period. I don't really understand what this thread is about.
Size and population is just one part of the picture.

The other, more important thing is that Britain also lagged in technological aspect. Japan today was smaller than China in size, but they were superior in industrial technology. Their factories were obsolete and too small, equipped with obsolete machinery and techniques, like the slow adoption of factory electrification, which was more efficient than gas and steam. Productivity growth in UK also sluggish (you can easily find the productivity growth). Actually, German manufacturing productivity was 25% higher before ww1.

The main problem is technological lag. And when other countries adopted the new tech created from the new industries in other sectors, like in the period after ww2, they simply surpassed Britain.
 
This seems like you're once again creating a thread specifically to bash the British.

British industrial power as a percentage of the global total DID enter relative decline after 1870 so that by 1914 it was third relative to the United States and Germany

That isn't a British bash, that is a historical fact

Just as US industrial power entered relative decline compared to Japan, the EU and China after the 1960s. That too is a fact, not an American bash

There are advantages to being first (in terms of the Industrial Revolution) that the British had going for them for much of the 19th Century. But those advantages didn't stay forever. Just as the US benefited from everyone else being badly hurt by two World Wars (especially the Second World War). Conditions change after all.
 
A country mostly produced and exported low tech craps do not deserve this status.

As I've already said, this seems like a thread explicitly to bash the British.

@Thomas1195 - you are making it seem like he is right. I even contributed in good faith to this, but you could have the discussion without appearing to deride. If your concern was that Britain was producing low-technology goods and that this was a reason you said it declined, or it failed to move towards high-tech goods manufacturing, rather than "it declined and was bad" I'd say you had a leg to stand on.

An economy does not have to be producing self-sealing stem-bolts to be considered a developed economy. What it makes is only a factor. Primary, Secondary, Tertiary and Quaternary Industries are just part of the equation. Other aspects are economic institutions (i.e. Fiat Currency, Fractional-Reserve Banking, Central Banks, Paper Money).

A fair analysis of the UK at that time is that it was firmly focused around Secondary Industries (by definition it was the first country to do so in a serious way), the bulk of which produced Low-to-Middle technology goods. Excluding some of its biggest productions like ... Ships. Others have demonstrated that the British Economy WAS producing higher-end goods, but it wasn't the focus of their economy, as they were already dominating the other aspects of the market. That doesn't make them an undeveloped economy, it makes them a market leader. If my town makes nothing but silk cloth, and makes all the silk cloth in the world but still takes advantages of mortgages and payment plans, paper money etc, that isn't an undeveloped economy by any fair measure.

You may as well say that mid-western USA isn't a developed economy as they are very well known for producing crops, or Texas isn't because it is built around oil production and refinement (Primary and Secondary Industries). In contrast, the Modern UK (regardless of current politics) is the world leader in Banking (Tertiary), and is certainly more sophisticated economically than it was in the 1870s. Is it more sophisticated than China? Hard to say, but from what I've read of your position, the answer would be yes, quite a bit.

That ignores the fact that you asserted that it was declining - looking through I'm not sure I agree with your assertions now. Was their economy LESS sophisticated? No. Was it smaller? No. Not in absolute terms. Was it maintaining its dominance (i.e. its position relative to other nations), No. That however does not mean that it is declining, it means it is no longer dominant.

It is at this point that I fear inaccuracy on your part leads towards appearing derogatory. I'd recommend clarifying your position.
 
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