So this one might be a bit tricky, how do you get an independent Taiwan when the Nationalists win the Chinese civil war on the mainland? It can't be communist, so no just having a reverse of our timeline, but you can have China split with a northern communist part if that helps at all. Whilst this is in After 1900 since that's what I was originally thinking about it's not a hard and fast limit so pre-1900 points of divergence would work as well.
AHC: Independent Taiwan with a Nationalist Victory in the Chinese Civil War
- Thread starter Simon
- Start date
B-29_Bomber
Banned
Best that you could do is let the WAllies let Japan keep Taiwan.
But I don't see how or why.
But I don't see how or why.
The native Taiwanese themselves wanted American occupation and eventual self rule leading to independence. America had already given Chiang its promise to return Taiwan to China.
I think you would need a POD before the end of WWII which would cause FDR to commit to a plebiscite instead. The US gave a lot of promises to Chiang on certain issues since it could not provide real material aid once the Burma Road was closed, so perhaps you'd need a scenario where the Burma Road was held and massive American aid was delivered. While China did increasingly better against Japan, evidence of corruption and such made America leery of backing Chinese claims to Taiwan and offered face saving plebiscite that Chiang agreed to.
I think you would need a POD before the end of WWII which would cause FDR to commit to a plebiscite instead. The US gave a lot of promises to Chiang on certain issues since it could not provide real material aid once the Burma Road was closed, so perhaps you'd need a scenario where the Burma Road was held and massive American aid was delivered. While China did increasingly better against Japan, evidence of corruption and such made America leery of backing Chinese claims to Taiwan and offered face saving plebiscite that Chiang agreed to.
If the Nationalist victory leads to a weak and corrupt central government that falls apart after Chiang dies into a new Warlord's Era, I could see a Taiwanese rebellion that - perhaps with covert Japanese backing - throws out the Republic and declares itself independent.
Either butterfly or seriously limit Japan's invasion of China. The Nationalists most likely win against the CCP without getting drained fighting the Japanese. Taiwan remains under Japanese rule for several decades. Japan gradually becomes a bit more liberal and open-minded and eventually Taiwan is either granted independence or some level of autonomy within the Japanese empire (ie Dominion of Taiwan anyone).
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
While this makes intuitive sense, it is hard to make it actually come off. During their occupation of Japan, the Taiwanese lost a lot of their rough and readiness for rebellions and got used to following authority. Vigilantism wasn't a thing for them. The Taiwanese did not know how crappy Chinese administration would be until they experienced it, by which time it was too late because ChiNats had a lot of troops there and an internationally recognized claim. Any armed rebels in Taiwan could be portrayed to the entire Chinese mainland population (right, center and left-wing) as closet collaborators who dared to try to split the country. The allied countries who had fought against Japan would be biased the same way. The Japanese themselves were powerless to act and not have it boomerang badly against them.
This is the most plausible idea I think, even though it requires an "optimistic" evolution of Japanese policy.
This is the second most plausible I think- with the exception of the Japanese government backing part.
Probably requires a smaller POD where the Japanese try to forcibly assimilate the locals from the start, resulting in massive protests and such. The experience and rise of anti-Japanese institutions could be enough to serve in a Ukraine Insurgent Army-style agenda: fight the Chinese, fight the WAllies, fight the Communists.
Little Red Bean
Banned
It took decades of being severed from China and several more decades of brutal dictatorship under the GMD for a non-insignificant number of non-aboriginal people living in Taiwan to see themselves as anything other than Chinese. And even now those who support independence are a small minority. The only way Taiwanese "independence" is going to be achieved in any TL where the island is settled by Chinese people is through genocide or bayonets.