AHC: Europe looks like the Susano Map

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Will Kürlich Kerl, Aug 24, 2013.

  1. Will Kürlich Kerl Banned

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    Last edited: Aug 24, 2013
  2. Westphalian Well-Known Member

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    It is very difficult to have it be something else than what it depicts: Germany after the first Peace of Paris.

    After all, the borders of Baden, Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse and others are extremely contingent on almost random decisions in 1803 to 1813. Without the exact interaction between Napolon's government and the German princes' envoys, the different states will look diffferently.
     
  3. Alex Richards The Psephological Hulk

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    Not to mention that the Archbishop of Salzburg was basically a Habsburg sinecure for basically the entire period from 1450 onwards, so for Bavaria to have annexed it is very unlikely. And Austria had no connection to the Palatinate unlike the Wittlesbachs.
     
  4. Zmflavius Cheeky Little Shit

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    Especially, the most troublesome bits are probably the occupational zones, which under virtually no circumstances would have been viable borders. It's stuff like Russian Saxony and Prussian Belgium which really makes it unworkable.
     
  5. Will Kürlich Kerl Banned

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    I extended the limit back to 1648.
     
  6. Zmflavius Cheeky Little Shit

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    That really makes it less likely; if only because as Westphalian said, these borders are very situational.

    Even in generalities, the likelihood is slim. Probably most unlikely is the Russian Saxon exclave; even Russia annexing territory far enough to reach Saxony is sort of pushing it.
     
  7. Simreeve Differently-Sane Scientist

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    But if the lordship of the Palatinate were to fall vacant through the extinction of its previous ruling dynasty, which came quite close to happening during the late 18th century IOTL (with the entire Wittelsbach family basically reduced to only one branch), then the Emperor -- as overlord -- would have the right to re-assign it to a new dynasty. That was actually how the Habsburgs had acquired Austria & Styria, after the extinction of the Babenbergs, in the first place.
    (Admittedly, though, by this date the Emperor would probably have to consider which of the empire's other princely families might have claims on the Palatinate through marriage -- rather than through strictly 'salic' sucession -- when making that decision: Consider, for example, the Kleves-Julich-Berg-Mark inheritance dispute...)
     
  8. Alex Richards The Psephological Hulk

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    If that's the situation, then I'd have thought the bigger issue is who gets hold of Bavaria.
     
  9. freivolk Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn´t say the map is ASB. Some ideas for it were floating around 1805-1814. 1805 there were some discussion between Britain and Russia to give Belgum to Prussia if it joins the third coalition. 1814 even Metternich wasn´t very happy with the idea that Austria would have no foothold on the Rhine. Austria wanted Saxony fully restored and Russia wanted all of Posen.

    I think a possible POD could be, that Louis Bonapart http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Bonaparte, Napoleons Brother and disposed King of Holland, who was 1813 in austrian exil, decide to fully switch to the allies side. His support for the Allies and his poularity in the Netherlands is significant enough to get him 1814 rewarded with with becoming King of the Netherland again. But he is still a Bonaparte and the Allies don´t want him to become to strong. So somebody else have to get Belgum and so it goes to the Prussians, who for this have to keep their fingers away from Saxony (at this time still occupied by the Russians) and give Posen to Russia. But the prussian position on the Rhine is so strong, that Austria decide it must also show flag there. So they take Palatinate and let the Bavarians keep Salzburg for it.
     
  10. Wendell Wendell

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    THis could potentially make OTL Napoleon III King of the Netherlands:eek:
     
  11. Seek75 Well-Known Member

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    But why would they give the Netherlands to a Bonaparte when they have a perfectly legitimate Orange candidate in exile, essentially waiting to be put back on the throne?

    Sorry, but as far as I can see, putting Louis on the throne makes no sense when William or his son William Frederick are still alive.
     
  12. Wendell Wendell

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    Also, a Protestant Prussian ruling the Rhineland AND the Southern Netherlands? I'm not seeing how that could last.
     
  13. freivolk Well-Known Member

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    Still the Austrians supportet Murat some time as King of Neapel. And the Czar wanted to make Bernadote King of France.Legitimacy first become an issue after the victory in 1814. In 1813 it would count what could be helpfull for the Allies.
     
  14. freivolk Well-Known Member

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    The United Netherlands didn´t last too, But it was tried. Prussia still may have the manpower to surpress the Belgian Revolution.
     
  15. Wendell Wendell

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    Not if said revolution has foreign support, or if ir's bloodier, both of which seem likely.
     
  16. Westphalian Well-Known Member

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    Let's look at this again. Who is stronger, who is weaker than OTL?

    Russia is much stronger. Even if Poland and Saxony are just protectorates under Russian administration, not possessions. They make Russia into a true Central European great power. Assuming they can browbeat Prussia as owner of neighboring East Frisia into being cooperative, there might even be some kind of *Nikolaushaven at the OTL site of Wilhelmshaven.

    Austria has the Palatinate with the Saar, Mainz, Koblenz, Fulda and some bits of Franconia. It is certainly a more "German" power here.

    France is marginally stronger than OTL, with a tad more territory in the Ardennes and along the Upper Rhine.

    Prussia has a mixed bag. On one hand, it is/will be an economic and industrial powerhouse with Belgium plus the Ruhr and Upper Silesia. And Ostend, Antwerp and Emden as ports. OTOH, keeping the francophone and francophile elites of *Belgium content will be a pain in the ass. Keeping Russia friendly is essential since the Russians can apply much pain to Prussia very easily.

    Obviously the UK has lost big time. They could not keep the North Sea coast free of other Great Powers, they could not secure any gains for their Orange clients. Geostrategically they are visibly weaker than OTL.
     
  17. Zmflavius Cheeky Little Shit

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    Then, in this case, would you say that a plausible POD for this would be any situation where the British and perhaps also the Austrians and Prussians are hamstrung for whatever reason, allowing Russia to dictate the peace?

    A defeat at Waterloo followed by a Russian victory (where Prussia doesn't lose much with Russia as its patron) I think might work, but France would probably get a much worse deal.
     
  18. Emperor Constantine 21st century Monarchist

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    You missed Sweden. Here it retained its land in Pomerania. And did Britain really do so bad? I mean Hanover came out fully restored here.
     
  19. Nietzsche Banned

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    Prussia's religious tolerance will help, honestly, and its military will certainly fare better than the Dutch one in the Lowlands. So long as the UK approves of it remaining under Prussian tutelage, I can see it staying there.
     
  20. Mikestone8 Well-Known Member

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    And would Louis Philippe be any more eager to go to war than OTL?