So before the date of the punic wars have Carthage rule Sicily, Sardinia, corsria, the Balearics, Spain, and North Africa west of cyrnacia. What changes have to happen to Carthage for this empire to happen? How close can it be to otl Carthage? How rich would it be? Would the Punic wars even happen?
AHC: A much greater Carthaginian empire before the Punic wars
- Thread starter calvin1417
- Start date
Totally interested! But I'm on my phone currently and with no sources at hand. Let me get back to this a bit later today 
Um are you close to your sources yet?Totally interested! But I'm on my phone currently and with no sources at hand. Let me get back to this a bit later today
Sorry! I was out of town most of the weekend and didn't have access to the net, and have been playing catch up ever since. I will respond shortly!
All right; I didn't dig into this too much, but here is my best guess:
I think you could have Sicily fall into Carthagian hands at the end of the OTL Third Sicilian War. In OTL, Carthage had overrun the entire entire island at this point, until Agathocles launched a surprise invasion of the Punic homeland. Although he was defeated, he was able to escape back to Syracuse and negotiate a peace. There are two ways to go about this: either have Agathocles' initial invasion never happen (maybe he gets lost as sea, or his plan is discovered and he is routed) or prevent his escape back to Syracuse. Either way, Carthage comes into full control of Sicily.
I suspect that Sicily is, initially, going to be ruled by a series of proxy Kings and governors initially. However, I could see one of the Greek kings launch an invasion of the island to 'liberate' its inhabitants (Pyrrhus, perhaps?). This might actually be good for Romano-Carthage relations, since neither state is going to want to see the Greeks move further into the Western Mediterranean. Also, up until this era in OTL, Carthage and Rome actually enjoyed pretty good relations with one another. Once the Greeks have been pushed back, I suspect Carthage is going to take a more active hand in administrating Sicily and might annex it directly.
Now, Corsica was already in Carthagian hands, save the interior, and it wouldn't be too hard to gradually increase their control. The same goes for Sardinia which had several Carthagian colonial cities in its south and west. I suspect, with more time (and with Sicily momentarily peaceful) Carthage might settle the northern part of the island as well and bring it fully under their control. After all, their control of Sardinia was never really contested by Rome until the First Punic War. I could definitely see an agreement between Carthage and Rome where Rome acknowledges Carthage's supremacy over Sicily in exchange for an agreement by Carthage to not meddle in the affairs of southern Italy.
The most difficult part of this challenge is Spain. Hamilcar was the general during the Third Sicilian War and I could see the government of Carthage growing concerned over his popularity at the time. Perhaps it would be easy enough to have him dispatched to Spain to secure its resources in an effort to get him out of the city. Now, if we want to assume that the Third Sicilian War ended in 307 BC, that means that Carthage is only going to have roughly 40 years between the beginning of the OTL First Punic War. That might be enough time to make some major inroads in Spain, but I doubt it will be enough time to expand their control over the entire peninsula. Most likely Carthage remains strongest in the South (as it was in OTL) and moves further into the interior, and then forms agreements with the local tribes and states to submit to Carthagian supremacy while they maintain much local autonomy.
Either way, Carthage is now significantly stronger than it was in OTL at the start of the Punic War. Likely, there is going to be growing tensions between Rome and Carthage (Rome was never all that keen on seeing rivals become more powerful than them, no matter the formal good relations between the states). However, should a war break out, Carthage is going to be in a significantly better position. Having full control over Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica is going to give it even more naval supremacy than it held in OTL, and I find it less likely that Rome would even be able to land troops in Sicily. It would also have the manpower of Spain to rely on and might even be able to threaten Italy by land, as well as by sea. Now, we know about the vaunted Roman man power, and how its alliance system made it particularly difficult to bring down, but I think Carthage would have a much better chance in this hypothetical matchup (especially when you consider just how close the conflict was in OTL, anyway).
I think you could have Sicily fall into Carthagian hands at the end of the OTL Third Sicilian War. In OTL, Carthage had overrun the entire entire island at this point, until Agathocles launched a surprise invasion of the Punic homeland. Although he was defeated, he was able to escape back to Syracuse and negotiate a peace. There are two ways to go about this: either have Agathocles' initial invasion never happen (maybe he gets lost as sea, or his plan is discovered and he is routed) or prevent his escape back to Syracuse. Either way, Carthage comes into full control of Sicily.
I suspect that Sicily is, initially, going to be ruled by a series of proxy Kings and governors initially. However, I could see one of the Greek kings launch an invasion of the island to 'liberate' its inhabitants (Pyrrhus, perhaps?). This might actually be good for Romano-Carthage relations, since neither state is going to want to see the Greeks move further into the Western Mediterranean. Also, up until this era in OTL, Carthage and Rome actually enjoyed pretty good relations with one another. Once the Greeks have been pushed back, I suspect Carthage is going to take a more active hand in administrating Sicily and might annex it directly.
Now, Corsica was already in Carthagian hands, save the interior, and it wouldn't be too hard to gradually increase their control. The same goes for Sardinia which had several Carthagian colonial cities in its south and west. I suspect, with more time (and with Sicily momentarily peaceful) Carthage might settle the northern part of the island as well and bring it fully under their control. After all, their control of Sardinia was never really contested by Rome until the First Punic War. I could definitely see an agreement between Carthage and Rome where Rome acknowledges Carthage's supremacy over Sicily in exchange for an agreement by Carthage to not meddle in the affairs of southern Italy.
The most difficult part of this challenge is Spain. Hamilcar was the general during the Third Sicilian War and I could see the government of Carthage growing concerned over his popularity at the time. Perhaps it would be easy enough to have him dispatched to Spain to secure its resources in an effort to get him out of the city. Now, if we want to assume that the Third Sicilian War ended in 307 BC, that means that Carthage is only going to have roughly 40 years between the beginning of the OTL First Punic War. That might be enough time to make some major inroads in Spain, but I doubt it will be enough time to expand their control over the entire peninsula. Most likely Carthage remains strongest in the South (as it was in OTL) and moves further into the interior, and then forms agreements with the local tribes and states to submit to Carthagian supremacy while they maintain much local autonomy.
Either way, Carthage is now significantly stronger than it was in OTL at the start of the Punic War. Likely, there is going to be growing tensions between Rome and Carthage (Rome was never all that keen on seeing rivals become more powerful than them, no matter the formal good relations between the states). However, should a war break out, Carthage is going to be in a significantly better position. Having full control over Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica is going to give it even more naval supremacy than it held in OTL, and I find it less likely that Rome would even be able to land troops in Sicily. It would also have the manpower of Spain to rely on and might even be able to threaten Italy by land, as well as by sea. Now, we know about the vaunted Roman man power, and how its alliance system made it particularly difficult to bring down, but I think Carthage would have a much better chance in this hypothetical matchup (especially when you consider just how close the conflict was in OTL, anyway).
Carthage iOTL tended strongly to view its possessions as places to trade as much as to 'own'. It's a commonplace idea that they were largely a mercantile empire, as opposed to the Romans, who took land and settled it.
The Carthaginians also didn't try to absorb their subject peoples and make them Carthaginian - which meant that they were always strapped for 'Carthaginian' manpower, and their armies were often composed of (foreign) mercenaries.
So... Have more Carthaginians settle abroad, accept their offspring with local women as fully Carthaginian, encourage the subject peoples to adopt Carthaginian language and culture.
Then you have a much larger pool of manpower to take, hold and colonize territory.
Sulemain
Banned
Wars have a tendency of happening between great powers with competing interests.
And in the case of Rome, that civilisation was ideologically predisposed towards war. Or at least, war was the method of advancement politically.
Intresting. So Carthage just has to be luckier not drastically different? Hm cool.
so an even more colonial Carthage? Intresting
Carthage would not bother invading the interior of Sardinia there is very little reason to bother. They prefer the path of least resistance trade with the Nuragic Sardinians was infinitely more preferable to outright conquest (even the Romans could not be bothered to pacify the infamous Barbaria). Corsican and Sardinian slaves were infamous for their complete suicidal stubbornness. They were cheap as they had a tendency to murder any owner that bought them. Carthage would dominate the coasts but not bother with the interior much.
If you are set on expanding into Iberia avoid Lusitania. Carthaginians were mercantile foremost and if there is no reason to invade anywhere then it is a waste of money and time. Lusitania was famous for having nothing of value or even any good farm land making the Lusitanians local bandits in the region.
Numantines were incredibly resilient warriors that even the Romans feared to the extent they starved them into submission than risk battle.
Greek cities along the east coast like Saguntum may cause tension with Massalia (but they could get levelled by a particularly war hungry Arverni King).
Perhaps Gades could have expanded very early (before they even joined Carthage) into southern Iberia.
But the challenge is to have Carthage have all this territory. So what needs to happen?
For a start destroy Massalia. It was greatly expanded by settlers in 546 bc when the Persians destroyed Phocaea. They in turn began to spread out into Emporion and Saguntum. If Carthage can get wind of further Hellenic colonists and prevent them settling in the Western Mediterranean (like in the Battle of Alalia) they already have a dominant position.
Conversely having more Phoenician settlers from Tyre, Byblos etc. would greatly help Carthage's position. Carthage was greatly expanded when the Assyrians, Babylonians and others attacked Tyre causing many nobles and other Phoenicians to flee to their colonies in the Western Mediterranean. This trend could be continued when Alexander besieges the city.
Break the power of Syracuse. The perfect time would be after 346 bc. The city is weak, divided and depopulated by its incredibly malicious and unpopular leader Dionysius the Younger (of the Damocles Sword fame). It became caught in a three way war between the incredible unpopular tyrant Dionysius the Younger holed up in the Ortygia Fortress his father had built, beseiged by the people of Syracuse within the city itself who backed a Democratic reform of the city and a traitorous General called Hicetas who backed the Oligarchs of Syracuse and planned to overthrow both the democrats and Dionysius from his base in Leontini. Hicetas secretly allied with Carthage and they sent an army to support him.
Due to almost divine intervention (read about it, its almost insane how much everything fell into place at exactly the right time) a Corinthian General called Timoleon managed to slip past the Carthaginian blockades and with about 1000 soldiers managed to free Syracuse, overthrow the Tyrant and beat back Carthages army of over 50,000 soldiers.
Timoleon could have easily been picked up by a Carthaginian fleet and it was more than likely that Hicetas would be killed by a mob in Syracuse when they find out the Carthaginian army outside was sent by him while he besieges Dionysius. Rather than the completely baffling retreat of Magos Carthaginian army that had been besieging Syracuse, instead he could order his army to move into the city to pacify the chaos.
Iberia cannot be eaten all at once. Even Rome had a hard time dealing with it all and it was only finally conquered under Augustus, who personally arrived to see it done. The Cantabrians did not surrender at all. They committed mass suicide rather than submit and the whole country in northern Iberia was laid waste.
With increased citizenry in the Libyan Phoenician cities they would need new cities to found (or New New Cities in the case of Carthago Nova) to deal with overpopulation as the Hellenic city states did. Places with good deep water harbours, coastal and easily defended. Similar to Libya and Sicily Carthage would dominate the coasts and leave the hinterlands to the barbarians as long as they paid tribute. In Sicily the inland regions was ruled by a mixture of Hellenics and Sicils (natives of Sicily) who preferred the Cathaginians over the Hellenic city states. Likewise in Africa, Libyans and Numidians paid tribute to Carthage but would rebel on occasion.
Tyre and Carthage expanded their holdings through trade depots, places merchants would stop off when carrying wares. An increase in demand for British tin could push more merchant ventures along the Atlantic coast of Iberia for example. Military force was used when the barbarians of the hinterlands threatened the safety of the trade routes or got in the way.
Military expansion is far too risky for Carthage. A failed General is crucified, so they do not have much scope to learn military tactics. A professional Carthaginian general would have a deathwish. Merchant ventures is the way to go.
If Carthage is rich and unthreatened by Hellenic expansion into the Western Mediterranean a faction of merchant adventurers may coalesce in the Carthaginian Senate. Wealthy states need to spend their money and in this you could have an early age of exploration where the young and wealthy tire of the conservative politicking over old trade routes and build a desire to find new routes and items to sell.
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So does anything have to change about Carthaginian society for these aquastions to happen? And how rich would Carthage be?