AH Challenge: The Weimar Republic Survives TL

[Derek Jackson]

I certainly assume that if Lenin were not available to provide the bold leadership the Bolsheviks would not have made their coup in 1917.

I think that though there would be a strong reactionary movement in Germany that the power of Nazism was related to Mr Hitler

 

[Straha]

Weimar surviving? HAH! The best that we could hope for is a center-right coalition one pasrty state that lasts for a few decades. Realistically the question to ask is "who else besides the nazis could have taken power" instead of "could the weimar republic survive".

 

[Glen]

Weimar surviving? HAH! The best that we could hope for is a center-right coalition one pasrty state that lasts for a few decades. Realistically the question to ask is "who else besides the nazis could have taken power" instead of "could the weimar republic survive".

Well, that is what makes this an AH Challenge, my friend.

The question of who else could have taken power has been done to death. Let's see if you can find a way to make the Weimar Republic survive.

 

[sikitu]

What about a less harsh treaty of Versailles, or maybe it is softened after a Polish defeat in the 1920s against the Soviets? If you stop the reparations in 1921, you might be able to avoid the inflation problem.

 

[Straha]

If you want the weimar republic to stay democratic you're pushing ASBs. If you just want it to survive its possible but not likely. A center-right coalition government of national unity would have to form. It would probably be a one party state for a decade or 2 then loosen up..

 

[Nicole]

I wonder, if German-Austria was allowed to join the Weimar Republic like it wanted to, could this increase the lifespan of Weimar?

 

[Straha]

Austria being allowed to join weimar germany WOULD give the government more prestige and legitimacy so thats a possibility. Another POD would be avoiding the great depression

 

[Faeelin]

If you want the weimar republic to stay democratic you're pushing ASBs. If you just want it to survive its possible but not likely. A center-right coalition government of national unity would have to form. It would probably be a one party state for a decade or 2 then loosen up..

I wasn't aware you'd done reading on the Weimar Republic, Straha.

 

[Faeelin]

Josef Wirth appears on the surface at least to be more of a center left or left polititian. Would he have ended up working more closely with the Soviets?

Didn't the Weimar already work closely with the Soviets? IIRC they conducted tests of military equipment in the USSR in the 20's.

 

[Faeelin]

Could you expand on this?

Oh, Stresemann recognized that Germany would have to come sort of rapproachment with France to become a great power again. He even toyed with the idea of a Franco-German alliance, although I have doubts that it could ever become that viable.

 

[Straha]

I wasn't aware you'd done reading on the Weimar Republic, Straha.

Actually no. I've seen several germany doesn't go nazi timelines before and read various discussions about a germany minus hitler on AH.com's various incarnations and other discussion board.

 

[Glen]

What about a less harsh treaty of Versailles,

A less harsh Treaty of Versailles would certainly aid the post-war German government's stability, but would it be the 'Weimar Republic' that would arise? With less harsh terms, there might be a different evolution of the German government. I guess this is a matter of semantics to a degree. Probably you could still get the Weimar Republic since, IIRC, the treaty negotiations started before the Republic's founding, but weren't completed until after. Anyone have confirmation on that?

or maybe it is softened after a Polish defeat in the 1920s against the Soviets? If you stop the reparations in 1921, you might be able to avoid the inflation problem.

Hmmm, the Soviets take Poland or just some slivers? If the Soviets tried to take the whole thing, I wonder if another World War would start, or would the Allies just say, "We're too tired, call back later." Let's say they do that. Well, with the Soviets now bordering Germany, it's likely that anticommunism goes even higher in Weimar Germany, so more right wing/right leaning governments. Stresemann was associated with the right, though more moderate than many, really. Would he hold on to power more, or be replaced by someone further right? I can see the British and even the French now relenting and allowing Weimar to build up their military and economy, rather than risk further Soviet expansion in that direction.

Of course, this begs the following question. If the Soviets were willing to go after Poland, why stop there? Why not Germany, or a substantial portion thereof? I suspect an invasion by the Soviets of the Weimar Republic in the early 20s would bring down that government, one way or the other.

On the other hand, would the Soviets in the early 20s be ready or even able to take on military conquests in the West. Remember, they too are suffering from war fatigue, both from WWI and their own Revolutionary/Civil Wars. They are focused inward mostly at this point it seems to me. Now, in the thirties, with the rest of the world brought low by the Great Depression, and a decade to rebuild themselves, they might be more aggressive, especially after receiving all that money from arms trade to the Royalists in the Spanish Civil War. But this would likely be too late for an impact on the German Republic's fate.

 

[Glen]

If you want the weimar republic to stay democratic you're pushing ASBs. If you just want it to survive its possible but not likely. A center-right coalition government of national unity would have to form. It would probably be a one party state for a decade or 2 then loosen up..

Well, why not democratic (or at least quasi-democratic)? You could still have a center-right or national unity government that stayed in power for a decade or two and be considered democratic as long as they did so with a plurality of the populace continuing to support them. The key I believe is to make the system evolve to a workable form, and gain more and more acceptance of change within the system rather than overthrow from within the system.

I think we have a few POD possibilities now that suggest the possibility of Weimar survival. I think, having reviewed some of this more now, that preventing Hindenburg from becoming President would be a large step in this direction.

 

[Glen]

I wonder, if German-Austria was allowed to join the Weimar Republic like it wanted to, could this increase the lifespan of Weimar?

I don't think that the mere fact of allowing Austria to join Weimar Germany would be enough.

Now then, having a Weimar government being perceived by the populace as successfully negotiating a merger of Austria with Germany, that would give a large boost of popularity and legitimacy to that government, as well as the whole system of the Weimar Republic. However, I think you are more likely to get movement on reparations than annexation if you want the allied powers to go along with it. Of course, as history showed us, if they went ahead and did it anyway, it is likely that the allied powers wouldn't have said boo in the end.

Hmmm, if the Centrist Coalition were to manage to get their presidential candidate elected in 1925, and then a chancellor or two were able to engineer a successful reduction in reparations (either before or after 1925) and bull through with a union of Austria and Germany, maybe in 1930 while the rest of the world was obviously more concerned with their domestic situation, you might see the Germans thinking somewhat better of their Republic, even if grudgingly.

 

[Glen]

Austria being allowed to join weimar germany WOULD give the government more prestige and legitimacy so thats a possibility. Another POD would be avoiding the great depression

Now there's a good AH question. How to avoid the Great Depression?

This might be enough to allow the Republic to hold on, at least until Hindenburg kicks the bucket, and without so much crisis, he might not turn to Hitler or anyone like him (not that he would help being president, but Hindenburg without major economic woes might be survivable for the Republic).

 

[Glen]

Didn't the Weimar already work closely with the Soviets? IIRC they conducted tests of military equipment in the USSR in the 20's.

I believe that they did, but this was a situation of convenience for Germany mostly since no one else would aid them in rearmament. I believe this happened both under left and right wing governments of the Republic.

 

[Molobo]

I believe that they did, but this was a situation of convenience for Germany mostly since no one else would aid them in rearmament

Not really, German politicians didn't accept losing territorial gains made in XIX century by the Prussia in the East and desired a common border with Russia.This is reflected in Seeckt speaches and in Stresseman belief that Poland was a "season state".
During the war with bolsheviks various contacts were made between German and Bolshevik units, including sending German communication officers to Bolshevik army.

“Poland’s existence is intolerable and incompatible with the essential conditions of Germany’s life. Poland must go and will go - as a result of her own internal weaknesses and of action by Russia - with our aid. . . . . The obliteration of Poland must be one of the fundamental drives of German policy . . . . . (and) is attainable by means of, and with the help of, Russia.”

- General von Seeckt, responsible for foreign policy in the Weimar Republic of Germany, writing in 1922

For Weimar Republics goal of rebuilding their army with Soviets:
http://www.feldgrau.com/articles.php?ID=23


In common view the Weimar Republic is seen as peacefull state.That is a false image.It cooperated with Soviets with the ultimate goal of rebuilding a strong army and its leading politicans never accepted the loss of land conquered from Poland.

If the Soviets were willing to go after Poland, why stop there? Why not Germany, or a substantial portion thereof?

The main goal of Bolshevik invasion was spreading the worldwide revolution.Germany at the time had a strong communist movement capable of controling whole regions-for example Bavaria.Lenin and others believed they could join their fight.Trotsky even said the "through the corpse of dead Poland lies the way to the worldwide revolutionary fire !" when addressing his troops.
Also he said towards the goals of the war"And this fire wouldn't be limited by polish walls(borders).Like furious stream it would spill all over the Europe".
The bolsheviks were then willing to drive on.Doesn't mean it would be realistic or they would be able to.Those revolutionaries after all weren't sane too much

 

[Susano]

You didnt learn by your temp-ban, did you?

In common view the Weimar Republic is seen as peacefull state.That is a false image.It cooperated with Soviets with the ultimate goal of rebuilding a strong army and its leading politicans never accepted the loss of land conquered from Poland.

It cooperated with the other pariah ofthe European political scene ebcause it had to see the other states as hostile. It should also be only natrual that every Weimer government seeked to undo the VErsailles Tretay - anything less would be betrayal.

Germany at the time had a strong communist movement capable of controling whole regions-for example Bavaria

Eh? Yeah, right, that is why all those communist uprisings were so sucessful.

And please, take your poland-centric view to some thread that, you knwos, actualyl ahs to do something with Poland. Geez.

 

[Molobo]

It should also be only natrual that every Weimer government seeked to undo the VErsailles Tretay - anything less would be betrayal.

Versailles Treaty in territorial agreements did only strip German territories gained by aggression in XIX century, and all with German minority.To say that it was betrayal is purely nationalistic point of view/the same could be said of betrayal of abandoning India by British or Algeria by French/.As to financial conditions its true they were overblown though and poorly executed.

And please, take your poland-centric view to some thread that, you knwos, actualyl ahs to do something with Poland.

The question was about Soviet invasion of Poland
Have a good day.

Yeah, right, that is why all those communist uprisings were so sucessful.

Several of them were succesfull enough to gain control of regions, cities and ability to create military formations.With Bolshevik neighbours they could be even more succesfull.

 

[Glen]

Okay folks, the point of the AH Challenge here is to have the Weimar Republic survive to the modern day. We don't need to discuss whether it should have or not, nor its moral merits and flaws. The question is, what would it take for the Weimar Republic to remain as a viable entity throughout the twentieth century.

The points about bolshevism and links to Germany are valid in that there was collaboration between the two, especially early on, and there was a strong leftist movement in Germany. Now then, there are two questions to ask about the left in Germany, the same as must be asked about the right. How did it undermine the Weimar Republic (and how to counteract that)? How did it help the Weimar Republic (and how to enhance that)?