Africa in a Central Powers Victory?

[Driftless]

With a German-centric CP victory, would there have been any possibility of "horse-trading" one German colony for another asset? I've got nothing specific in mind, but the inherent weak strategic position the German colonies would have if the RN controls access by sea, makes me think they might use those colonies as bargainning chips.

 

[Viriato]

Jan Smuts before a committee of the Imperial War Cabinet on Territorial Desiderata, on 17 April 1917:

"retrocession of South-West Africa was absolutely impossible even in the contingency of a completely unsatisfactory peace. It would mean the submergence of those who had made every sacrifice on behalf of the Empire in South Africa, and would bring other elements to the front whose predominance would jeapordise the whole position in South Africa."

 

[ThePest179]

Well, in the event that Germany does get colonies, how do you guys suppose they will be treated by the Germans?

 

[RavenMM]

Well, in the event that Germany does get colonies, how do you guys suppose they will be treated by the Germans?

we don't have to much data on that, but natives in what are declared settler colonies will maybe fare very bad. But from what I heard, Germans are liked in Samoa, because what came after was worse. So... it depends? I don't think the germans will be worse than the other colonial powers.

 

[ThePest179]

we don't have to much data on that, but natives in what are declared settler colonies will maybe fare very bad. But from what I heard, Germans are liked in Samoa, because what came after was worse. So... it depends? I don't think the germans will be worse than the other colonial powers.

Well, I ask because they did this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_Genocide

I doubt that this would become the norm, but I think it says something about their views on their colonial subjects.

 

[ThePest179]

Bumping. Anyone have any further thoughts?

 

[Mikestone8]

Could we see a North African campaign in this situation?

With the French and Italian navies withdrawn from the war, the British presence in the Mediterranean is modest - and may have to be reduced even further if German battle-cruisers (operating from French ports) get out into the Atlantic, requiring British capital ships to be diverted to convoy escort duties.

A Britain in danger of losing Egypt might well be prepared to accept some German gains in tropical Africa.

 

[Ameise]

Well, I ask because they did this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herero_and_Namaqua_Genocide

I doubt that this would become the norm, but I think it says something about their views on their colonial subjects.

As I recall, the German public was actually outraged by the genocide, and von Bülow requested (successfully, as I recall) that Wilhelm II relieve von Trotha of his command there.

 

[AussieHawker]

Well, in the event that Germany does get colonies, how do you guys suppose they will be treated by the Germans?

Well I think In German East Africa they did devolp it significantly thought it was a black hole financially.

A report said that settler colonists could have worked in the Highlands in Tropical areas so the Germans could have made land grants to the returning troops to settle in Highland East Africa or German South West Africa.

 

[Riain]

I think the Germans were as patchy in their colonial behaviour as any other power, you can find good and bad examples.

As for the often mentioned Royal Navy stopping Germany from getting colonies, I find the idea ludicrous. Not because the Royal Navy couldn't hold them. But because it means that Britain will continue fighting after defeat on the Continent of the BEF, French and Russian armies just in order to stop Germany getting a few scraps of Africa that the had no right to dispose of or otherwise. Indeed if Britain kept fighting to deny the French a peace settlement they wanted (ie disposing of colonies as concessions) I imagine they would assist Germany with fighting the war against Britain in order to end the German occupation of their country.

 

[Alex1guy]

I think the Germans were as patchy in their colonial behaviour as any other power, you can find good and bad examples.

As for the often mentioned Royal Navy stopping Germany from getting colonies, I find the idea ludicrous. Not because the Royal Navy couldn't hold them. But because it means that Britain will continue fighting after defeat on the Continent of the BEF, French and Russian armies just in order to stop Germany getting a few scraps of Africa that the had no right to dispose of or otherwise. Indeed if Britain kept fighting to deny the French a peace settlement they wanted (ie disposing of colonies as concessions) I imagine they would assist Germany with fighting the war against Britain in order to end the German occupation of their country.

Actually I think the fighting stops, I don't think Germany would continue to fight for her colonies. By 1918 the Navy isn't in a position to go after them, if Britain offered peace in exchange for Germany's overseas possessions and recognition of the East, it think Germany would begrudgingly accept.

 

[Riain]

The OP was that Germany wins mainly as a result of the successful 1918 offensive. So while the British have the RN the BEF is basically defeated in the field with hundreds of thousands of prisoners, thousands of guns and tanks captured and rear areas overrun. The British aren't in a position to dictate what Germany can and can't have, Germany is in the process of taking France starting with the Channel coast, much like what happened in the east in 1917/18.

 

[Monty Burns]

If Germany had won in the West, that means that France has surrendered, and there is no hope for Belgium to fight on either.

Now Britain still holds the German colonies or can prevent the Germans taking anything overseas. However, Britain would want peace as well. With France beaten, there is pretty much no chance in upholding the blockade, even ignoring the fact that the British soldiers wouldn't want to fight on after loosing on the continent. This is 1918, thus if the Germans break through, the other side will crumble, as the Germans were not able to fight on. By this time, it's a question of all or nothing. Thus Germany winning means a complete victory on land.

So there will be true negotiations between the two victorious/undefeated powers left: Germany and Britain. What else could they do?

In these negotiations, pretty much everything is open. In particular, all former German colonies, all French colonies, all Belgian colonies and France and Belgium proper are up to negotiations. And Britain will happily give away some colonies in exchange for preventing the Germans to fortify Calais into the main base of the HSF. In particular if the colonies in question are not British, but French.

Now Britain likewise can hardly negotiate away the colonies taken by South Africa, Japan or Australia. So these are lost to Germany for good.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

If you argue that Britain can't negotiate the gains of South Africa and Australia away, Germany would probably demand that the Brits hold still while the Germans TAKE those back forcibly if not returned.

While it might be seen as impossible to give back what was won so hard by "Commonwealth" blood - the other side will say it can't give away what was defended by German blood around the world. There are always two sides.

If we assume Germany has won, Germany will certainly demand back what was German before. This does - of course - not mean it will get back all that. But it will get more than fair compensation.

In Africa this might mean the South Africans will be allowed a strip of Südwest, but German will get a share of Angola and Mozambique at least. Togo, Kamerun adn Deutsch Ostafrika are to be given back of course (Maybe with Chunks of British /French and Belgian posessions too)

Libya goes back to the OE (of course) Maybe including the former Egypt Fezzan.

THe Pacific is more tricky - I think Germany might "trade away" the Islands (for more of Africa and Money maybe) but CHina is a tricky Point. Germany will not be able to force Japan to give it back. But imagine what GErmany will do then. It probably decides to teach the local dumb witted giant (China) how to fight and take away the toys of the other bullys (JApan, Britain, Russia, France) too. Germany won't be able to fight directly, but it will make friends with China (weapons, advisors, goods, Money)

 

[Riain]

What are Australia, new Zealand and south Africa going to do if Britain hangs them out to dry over the colonies they took? Britain will want Germany away from the channel coast and if the dominions have to eat shit then I doubt the British will lose much sleep over it. They can threaten to withdraw protection and let the Germans take the colonies back.

 

[Mikestone8]

I don't see how the Pacific possessions can be regained. They are just impossibly far away, and Japan would probably support a refusal by Australia and NZ to return them.

If the Germans are smart (admittedly a big if) they won't insist on recovering SWA, but rather treat Sout Africa generously in the hope she will elect a pro-German government.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

A 1918 defeat can have several logical outcomes, so it is not a given Germany can recover any colonies. If the BEF is not destroyed, only pushed back to the coast, & the RN undefeated then Germany has less of a negotiating position. This has no guarantee the German armies are not exhausted as well.

 

[ThePest179]

As I recall, the German public was actually outraged by the genocide, and von Bülow requested (successfully, as I recall) that Wilhelm II relieve von Trotha of his command there.

Interesting. I didn't know that. With this in mind, how do you think the rest of the colonies would be governed?

I think the Germans were as patchy in their colonial behaviour as any other power, you can find good and bad examples.

I think that sums things up, although I'd argue more harm than good was done.

In Africa this might mean the South Africans will be allowed a strip of Südwest, but German will get a share of Angola and Mozambique at least.

But those are Portuguese. Why would Germany take them?

Libya goes back to the OE (of course) Maybe including the former Egypt Fezzan.

Egypt I doubt they would demand. I don't think the Ottomans would get anything, to be honest. They've been consistently pushed back and are on the verge of collapse; Britain would laugh if they tried to make terms, and I doubt Germany would help the sick man.

THe Pacific is more tricky - I think Germany might "trade away" the Islands (for more of Africa and Money maybe) but CHina is a tricky Point.
Germany won't be able to fight directly, but it will make friends with China (weapons, advisors, goods, Money)

Sounds good.

If the BEF is not destroyed

It is, making the point moot.

 

[jkay]

But why think warmonger Willy-II could stay out of war with the whole world? I'm afraid you'll need somebody else on the throne to win.

And why think an offensive will work in an era of trench warfare?

And do get tanks, a big part of the Entente won, so you can do offensives without absurdly wasting men.

The thread's pretty good on the subject of what'd they get. Though I wonder if Japan would return anything.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Interesting. I didn't know that. With this in mind, how do you think the rest of the colonies would be governed?



I think that sums things up, although I'd argue more harm than good was done.



But those are Portuguese. Why would Germany take them?



Egypt I doubt they would demand. I don't think the Ottomans would get anything, to be honest. They've been consistently pushed back and are on the verge of collapse; Britain would laugh if they tried to make terms, and I doubt Germany would help the sick man.



Sounds good.



It is, making the point moot.

Concerning the portugese colonies - Portugal was at war with the CPs - Both Britain and Germany had - at one Point considered to take over those colonies - now is the time.

I did not want to say that the OE gets Egypt - but they will get Libya back - and if only to "punish" the Italians for "betraying" the CPs - Before WWI the Southeast part of Libya was part of Egypt and given later to the Italians for their war effort - So ist probably considered as "spoils of war for the OE".

Much of the advance against the OE was made in late 1917/1918 a CP victory in (early) 1918 probably puts enozugh pressure on Britain to undo (Most) of those advances - maybe on the battlefield, but more probable on the green table (Not so muchbecuase the Ottomans can rightfully demand it, but ist in Germanys interest that there is access to the Indian Ocean (I assume Germany would demand and get a naval base at Basra from the turks. Thats - at least - a powerful bargaining chip against future Britain