Grey Wolf said:
I would see Belgium as probably having no greater fleet than Denmark, and quite possibly not as modern, though with the Netherlands as a neighbour, and with spare industrial output, it would seem just as logical to have a small compact ironclad fleet for Belgium - what think you ?
I'm of two mind about Belgium navy.
On the one hand, Capital ships are prestige assets ( BTW, shouldn't we be moving out of the ironclad era and into the pre-dred one? ) and as you stated, Belgium has the spare output and wealth for a few.
OTOH, Belium doesn't have any really good natural harbour except for Antwerpen ( I discount ZeeBrugge and Oostende ). And the Dutch control both side of the access channel to Antwerpen, making it useless as a military base for big ships ( aka slow moving targets ) in case of war.
All in all, I see Belgium more innovating in naval matters, with quick torpedo boats and submarines for costal defense and quick dash in the Schelde. I think OTL Jeune Ecole will be known as the belgian school in this TL.
Maybe there will be a couple long distance cruisers added for power projections, but I really think the belgian Navy is going to go for swarm of small ships, to avoid the dutch coastal batteries ( submatines being of course immune to these ).
Grey Wolf said:
OK, I own up - I have no idea
Overall I'm a political historian, a military historian in general overview, and sometimes a naval historian in detail. But when it comes to individual weapons I haven't a fluffy bunny.
In general terms, I intend that Prussia continues to aim to be the foremost military in Europe. This may be a fallacy on their part, but they won't neglect any area in the attempt to be this. I would think that the mid 1860s gave them sufficient understanding of artillery and modern guns to have developed a rolling programme to keep up to date. In addition, they would probably have had advisors at major wars - almost certainly in Corrientes/Chaco to see the British and the Americans come to blows.
I'm no specialist either and I was thinking in terms of WWI weapons. Two major weapons were from 96 in case of the french gun and 98 ( I misremembered ) for the Mauser riffle. I was wondering if those would be already available or rushed into production for the coming war. ( I don't see any change that OTL Mle13 77mm gun be rushed, OTOH ).
These may have some impact on the war, as they played a major part in the thinking of their respective military.
I assume that the development of the TL tech is about per oTL?
Grey Wolf said:
I am not sure about Austria. I see Rudolph as in bliss, happily married to his young wife, revelling in his young sons, and overcoming his personal trauma of shooting his father. In terms of matters of state, he is not going to be rash or foolhardy, but he will feel a very real sense of Austria's place in history, and in Europe. With various states clamouring for protective alliances, I don't think he would be able to refrain from entering the melee, initially as a guarantor, then later as a combatant.
As for Poland, I don't think it is at all in King Maximilian's interests to seek war. Whilst Posen would be very nice indeed, the risk of a Russian revanchist policy would prevent him from doing anything more than being ready and following the events closely.
Grey Wolf
Ah, that means only one front for Prussia. Easier for them then, but they may well need this.
It also means the war is not going to be as big as I thought. It's going to be France/belgium/south Netherlands on one side and North Netherland/Hannover/Prussia on the other, with a smattering of lesser german states involved, right? And with South Germany trying to stay neutral?
In such a case, given the narrowness of the potential front, the manpower available and the technology ( machine guns, mainly ), I think the front will be rather static after the first lines are drawn. Especially given the patterns of railroads and channels ( in the Netherlands ). Headlong attacks are going to end up in bloodbath, as will landings if anyone is foolish enougth to attem one. It's going to be a war of attrition.
I wonder how this war is going to spur military tech. It's too early for planes, but not for tanks ( OTL, the first prototypes were in 1898 ).
I don't think combat gases are going to be used, however, as I don't think Prussia will have anything like OTL chemical industry, and the french had none.