Originally, I put this post together late last year, intending to submit it as part of the `Plan Red' thread. Unfortunately, trouble with my original attempt to create an AH account meant that never happened. Perhaps just as well, as the scenario expanded swiftly far beyond my original intention. I'm submitting it now as something of an experiment to gauge its viability as part of a work of fiction intended eventually for publication. Part of its canon posites a post-WWII `British Imperial Universe', one element of which includes Hawaii joining (or being subsumed into) an expanding post WWII British Empire after Japanese war-time occupation. The `Empireverse' TL is as yet very far from complete or stable, as it is simply one part of the whole. Still, I'd be very interested in comments or ideas.
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General 19th Century greater U.S/British-Imperial belligerence:
[size=+2]1) American Confederate Crisis:[/size]
1861: Trent Affair:
November 8, 1861:
Captain Charles Wilkes intercepts the RMS Trent as in OTL, but things go badly during his attempt to arrest Mason and Slidell. The ship's company resist, resulting in the death of British seaman Anthony James Fletcher (invented for this scenario) and Slidell suffering serious injury. Tensions are very high, and for a while, Anglo-U.S. hostilities a very real possibility. It is only the Lincoln administration's releasing of the envoys and agreeing to pay considerable compensation to Fletcher's family that averts the crisis. However, although British Imperial policy regarding the Confederacy remains outwardly identical to canon, public outrage in Britain remains far more prevalent and sustained, weakening the expected tendency towards general public support for the U.S. side in the war. As a result, there is greater British unease and a push towards a long-term and considerable build-up of Imperial forces in Canada, a general strengthening and improving of key defences, and more consideration given to the possibility of future U.S. belligerence. Further, sympathy for and trade with the Confederacy is somewhat greater, particularly with regard to certain British and Imperial companies and privateers. John Laird and Sons build four, rather than two Confederate warships, and `blockade runners' are more numerous. Furthermore, although the ACW remains essentially unchanged, no compensation is paid to the post-ACW U.S. government, who feel it unwise to push the `Alabama Claims' issue due to the near-disaster of the Trent Affair. Although post-ACW Anglo-American diplomatic relations return to something close to canon, there is a lingering, underlying background of ill-feeling and mutual wariness that does not exist in OTL, despite attempts on both sides to remedy the situation.
[size=+2]2) Hawaiian Crisis:[/size]
Liliuokalani:
Yet more studious even than her canonical counterpart, Princess Liliuokalani proves particularly adept, and travels for a time to Great Britain to study in her mid to late teenage years. Greatly affected and very much influenced by the pomp and grandeur of the British Empire and Victorian Britain, she returns to her native Hawaii very greatly changed from, and better disciplined than the Liliuokalani of canon.
Crisis:
1887:
April:
Learning of the `Bayonet Constitution' during her visit to Great Britain as part of the delegation to attend Queen Victoria's Golden Jubilee celebrations, and fearing this may be a preemptive attempt to strip the Hawaiian monarchy of all power as a prelude to removal, a more determined and canny Crown Princess Liliuokalani decides to try a personal plea to the Queen for Imperial condemnation and possible further aid in the event the situation should further deteriorate. Impressed by her eloquence and obvious concern for her people, QV gives her as much time as she can to plead her case. Appeals are made also to other attendees inasmuch as is possible given the circumstances, and in particular to the Japanese Imperial delegation in light of the BC's effect on Japanese Hawaiians.
Although cautious, support for the Hawaiian Monarchy's position and condemnation of the Bayonet Constitution is declared by the British Empire and the Empire of Japan, and soon afterwards by Russia and Imperial Germany, although AH remains uncommitted.
1891:
Upon her accession and believing she has tacit support from at least three major European powers and the Empire of Japan, Queen Liliuokalani moves even more decisively than in canon to abrogate the Bayonet Constitution, declaring it as illegal as it was signed under duress, and condemning it forcefully as an affront to all native and Asian citizens of the islands, and to all fair-minded Hawaiians. Further, although not strictly true, she intimates that she has a British and Japanese Imperial promise of direct trade intervention, and warns of dire consequences for the islands should a new and fair constitution not be enacted with urgent speed.
1893:
With greater European and Japanese support for her position, tensions are far higher, diplomatic observers more prevalent, and the Hawaiian Royal Guard better trained, better armed and at a higher general state of alertness. Consequently, Thurston, the Committee of Safety and the Honolulu Rifles are more extreme in their own preparations and more willing to resort to bloodshed in their plans to overthrow the Monarchy..
17th January:
Rather than being wounded, the unfortunate policeman attempting to prevent the weapons delivery to the Honolulu Rifles is killed outright and the incident observed by a British and French journalist and a diplomatic observer from the French consulate. Worse, the three are fired upon whilst escaping, and the French diplomat wounded. Fearing a response and already primed for conflict, the Committee of Safety initiates the coup with greater urgency, poorer planning and less concern for the consequences. The result is an Initial bloody battle in which several on both sides are killed. Stevens, taking advantage of the situation, orders the Marines to intervene on the side of the conspirators. The result is a massacre, with Queen Liliuokalani trapped within the palace and both unable and unwilling to order her forces to surrender.
By the time the coup is over, nearly two-hundred are dead (including twenty-two U.S. marines), several government buildings and many businesses are ablaze, and two British journalists, one German and two Japanese diplomatic observers have been killed. To complete the disaster, Thurston and another committee member are shot and killed two days later by a native and Japanese Hawaiian, appalled at what has happened.
Immediate Fallout:
Fearing condemnation at home, Cleveland never condemns the coup, nor is the Blount Report commissioned. The later Morgan Report exonerates the U.S. completely of any wrong-doing regarding the coup, and of any culpability regarding the deaths of foreign observers and civilians caught up in the fighting, even though several foreign papers report Honolulu Rifles forces targeting their citizens in apparent retaliation for European support for the Monarchy. Imperial Japan is one of the most vocal in its condemnation of the coup, not simply for the overthrow of the Hawaiian Monarchy and because it believes its diplomats were murdered, but because several Japanese citizens and Hawaiian Japanese were killed or targeted during and immediately after the fighting. Worse, the provisional government deal far more harshly with those they perceive as possible counter-revolutionaries, and (at least at first) Asian Hawaiians are treated very badly and greatly disadvantaged in the new Republic.
To add to the tensions, the provisional government attempts to put Liliuokalani on trial for refusing to accept what they claim was the valid Bayonet Constitution and the absurd additional charge of being somehow complicit in Thurston's assassination, this averted only by diplomatic pressure brought to bare on the U.S. by several foreign powers, and the deposed Queen's agreement to accept exile. Many of her key supporters are not so fortunate. Minister Nawahi is shot out-of-hand during a supposed attempt to escape custody, whilst Prince Kawananakoa, Prince Kuhio and Wilcox are executed by Honolulu Rifles firing squad after what even some pro-republican elements consider an appalling sham of a trial, despite assurances that they will be treated fairly. For a while, there is a very real possibility that the islands will descend into full-scale civil war, averted only when the U.S. suppresses both sides with a full occupying force (a situation of course in no way displeasing to the plotters).
Liliuokalani leaves Hawaii for the last time on the 2nd of September (a date even the U.S. administration considers an utterly uncalled-for humiliation), after being granted asylum in the U.K., and becomes a rallying cry for disaffected and pro-monarchist elements within Hawaiian society for many years to come. Her memoirs are translated into at least twenty languages, and her prolific musical compositions and articles for various publications are very well known, particularly throughout the British Isles. By the time of her death in 1922 at the age of Eighty-three, Liliuokalani is almost a household name throughout the British Empire and the Empire of Japan. She is given a magnificent royal funeral, and laid to rest in Westminster Abbey, as although not themselves opposed, the U.S. administration will not risk her body being returned to Hawaii for fear further of inflaming monarchist sympathisers in the islands.
Longer-term:
The Republic of Hawaii is never recognised by Great Britain, France, Russia, Imperial Germany or the Japanese Empire, and although annexation occurs and is acknowledged as in OTL, Monarchist sympathy remains very strong amongst many Hawaiians, particularly the native and Japanese population. Further, there is a generally heightened sense of distrust and unease that persists into the early 20th century between the U.S. and Japan plus the British Empire, (and to a lesser extent) Germany, France and Russia.
I was going to continue this with a detailed WW1 scenario in which America is kept out of the war by Germany agreeing to pay very high compensation to affected American families for U.S. deaths in the sinking of the Lusitania. However, I don't see that either as likely or practical, given German atrocities e.g. in Belgium and against Atlantic shipping. So, I imagine rather that pro-British support is somewhat weaker in Congress, given the cooler relations, and the most Wilson can manage after the sinking is an agreement for a larger French and British loan scheme for his assurance to Congress that America will not become directly involved. This changes of course when Germany begins destroying American Atlantic shipping, but America's entry is somewhat later, and on a smaller scale, with grave repercussions for later U.S./Anglo-French relations.
The Armistice is signed as in canon, but British and French resentment against the U.S. for (as they believe) waiting until the last possible moment to minimise their own casualties, remains high after the war's end. Further damaging Anglo-American relations is the mounting evidence that Irish-American agitators are active in aggravating troubles within Ireland with the tacit approval of certain elements within the U.S. Congress. As a result, Wilson's `League of Nations' comes to nothing, and the U.S. drifts more and earlier towards an isolationist agenda, whilst in Britain and France there is increasing political pressure to declare WW1 debts to the U.S. null and void.
--------------------
I won't go further now, as there are a million possibilities from here as to how the BE could be in a far better position at the beginning of WWII than in our TL. However, any suggestions as to what might happen or possible improvements to this would be very greatly appreciated.
--------------------
General 19th Century greater U.S/British-Imperial belligerence:
[size=+2]1) American Confederate Crisis:[/size]
1861: Trent Affair:
November 8, 1861:
Captain Charles Wilkes intercepts the RMS Trent as in OTL, but things go badly during his attempt to arrest Mason and Slidell. The ship's company resist, resulting in the death of British seaman Anthony James Fletcher (invented for this scenario) and Slidell suffering serious injury. Tensions are very high, and for a while, Anglo-U.S. hostilities a very real possibility. It is only the Lincoln administration's releasing of the envoys and agreeing to pay considerable compensation to Fletcher's family that averts the crisis. However, although British Imperial policy regarding the Confederacy remains outwardly identical to canon, public outrage in Britain remains far more prevalent and sustained, weakening the expected tendency towards general public support for the U.S. side in the war. As a result, there is greater British unease and a push towards a long-term and considerable build-up of Imperial forces in Canada, a general strengthening and improving of key defences, and more consideration given to the possibility of future U.S. belligerence. Further, sympathy for and trade with the Confederacy is somewhat greater, particularly with regard to certain British and Imperial companies and privateers. John Laird and Sons build four, rather than two Confederate warships, and `blockade runners' are more numerous. Furthermore, although the ACW remains essentially unchanged, no compensation is paid to the post-ACW U.S. government, who feel it unwise to push the `Alabama Claims' issue due to the near-disaster of the Trent Affair. Although post-ACW Anglo-American diplomatic relations return to something close to canon, there is a lingering, underlying background of ill-feeling and mutual wariness that does not exist in OTL, despite attempts on both sides to remedy the situation.
[size=+2]2) Hawaiian Crisis:[/size]
Liliuokalani:
Yet more studious even than her canonical counterpart, Princess Liliuokalani proves particularly adept, and travels for a time to Great Britain to study in her mid to late teenage years. Greatly affected and very much influenced by the pomp and grandeur of the British Empire and Victorian Britain, she returns to her native Hawaii very greatly changed from, and better disciplined than the Liliuokalani of canon.
Crisis:
1887:
April:
Learning of the `Bayonet Constitution' during her visit to Great Britain as part of the delegation to attend Queen Victoria's Golden Jubilee celebrations, and fearing this may be a preemptive attempt to strip the Hawaiian monarchy of all power as a prelude to removal, a more determined and canny Crown Princess Liliuokalani decides to try a personal plea to the Queen for Imperial condemnation and possible further aid in the event the situation should further deteriorate. Impressed by her eloquence and obvious concern for her people, QV gives her as much time as she can to plead her case. Appeals are made also to other attendees inasmuch as is possible given the circumstances, and in particular to the Japanese Imperial delegation in light of the BC's effect on Japanese Hawaiians.
Although cautious, support for the Hawaiian Monarchy's position and condemnation of the Bayonet Constitution is declared by the British Empire and the Empire of Japan, and soon afterwards by Russia and Imperial Germany, although AH remains uncommitted.
1891:
Upon her accession and believing she has tacit support from at least three major European powers and the Empire of Japan, Queen Liliuokalani moves even more decisively than in canon to abrogate the Bayonet Constitution, declaring it as illegal as it was signed under duress, and condemning it forcefully as an affront to all native and Asian citizens of the islands, and to all fair-minded Hawaiians. Further, although not strictly true, she intimates that she has a British and Japanese Imperial promise of direct trade intervention, and warns of dire consequences for the islands should a new and fair constitution not be enacted with urgent speed.
1893:
With greater European and Japanese support for her position, tensions are far higher, diplomatic observers more prevalent, and the Hawaiian Royal Guard better trained, better armed and at a higher general state of alertness. Consequently, Thurston, the Committee of Safety and the Honolulu Rifles are more extreme in their own preparations and more willing to resort to bloodshed in their plans to overthrow the Monarchy..
17th January:
Rather than being wounded, the unfortunate policeman attempting to prevent the weapons delivery to the Honolulu Rifles is killed outright and the incident observed by a British and French journalist and a diplomatic observer from the French consulate. Worse, the three are fired upon whilst escaping, and the French diplomat wounded. Fearing a response and already primed for conflict, the Committee of Safety initiates the coup with greater urgency, poorer planning and less concern for the consequences. The result is an Initial bloody battle in which several on both sides are killed. Stevens, taking advantage of the situation, orders the Marines to intervene on the side of the conspirators. The result is a massacre, with Queen Liliuokalani trapped within the palace and both unable and unwilling to order her forces to surrender.
By the time the coup is over, nearly two-hundred are dead (including twenty-two U.S. marines), several government buildings and many businesses are ablaze, and two British journalists, one German and two Japanese diplomatic observers have been killed. To complete the disaster, Thurston and another committee member are shot and killed two days later by a native and Japanese Hawaiian, appalled at what has happened.
Immediate Fallout:
Fearing condemnation at home, Cleveland never condemns the coup, nor is the Blount Report commissioned. The later Morgan Report exonerates the U.S. completely of any wrong-doing regarding the coup, and of any culpability regarding the deaths of foreign observers and civilians caught up in the fighting, even though several foreign papers report Honolulu Rifles forces targeting their citizens in apparent retaliation for European support for the Monarchy. Imperial Japan is one of the most vocal in its condemnation of the coup, not simply for the overthrow of the Hawaiian Monarchy and because it believes its diplomats were murdered, but because several Japanese citizens and Hawaiian Japanese were killed or targeted during and immediately after the fighting. Worse, the provisional government deal far more harshly with those they perceive as possible counter-revolutionaries, and (at least at first) Asian Hawaiians are treated very badly and greatly disadvantaged in the new Republic.
To add to the tensions, the provisional government attempts to put Liliuokalani on trial for refusing to accept what they claim was the valid Bayonet Constitution and the absurd additional charge of being somehow complicit in Thurston's assassination, this averted only by diplomatic pressure brought to bare on the U.S. by several foreign powers, and the deposed Queen's agreement to accept exile. Many of her key supporters are not so fortunate. Minister Nawahi is shot out-of-hand during a supposed attempt to escape custody, whilst Prince Kawananakoa, Prince Kuhio and Wilcox are executed by Honolulu Rifles firing squad after what even some pro-republican elements consider an appalling sham of a trial, despite assurances that they will be treated fairly. For a while, there is a very real possibility that the islands will descend into full-scale civil war, averted only when the U.S. suppresses both sides with a full occupying force (a situation of course in no way displeasing to the plotters).
Liliuokalani leaves Hawaii for the last time on the 2nd of September (a date even the U.S. administration considers an utterly uncalled-for humiliation), after being granted asylum in the U.K., and becomes a rallying cry for disaffected and pro-monarchist elements within Hawaiian society for many years to come. Her memoirs are translated into at least twenty languages, and her prolific musical compositions and articles for various publications are very well known, particularly throughout the British Isles. By the time of her death in 1922 at the age of Eighty-three, Liliuokalani is almost a household name throughout the British Empire and the Empire of Japan. She is given a magnificent royal funeral, and laid to rest in Westminster Abbey, as although not themselves opposed, the U.S. administration will not risk her body being returned to Hawaii for fear further of inflaming monarchist sympathisers in the islands.
Longer-term:
The Republic of Hawaii is never recognised by Great Britain, France, Russia, Imperial Germany or the Japanese Empire, and although annexation occurs and is acknowledged as in OTL, Monarchist sympathy remains very strong amongst many Hawaiians, particularly the native and Japanese population. Further, there is a generally heightened sense of distrust and unease that persists into the early 20th century between the U.S. and Japan plus the British Empire, (and to a lesser extent) Germany, France and Russia.
I was going to continue this with a detailed WW1 scenario in which America is kept out of the war by Germany agreeing to pay very high compensation to affected American families for U.S. deaths in the sinking of the Lusitania. However, I don't see that either as likely or practical, given German atrocities e.g. in Belgium and against Atlantic shipping. So, I imagine rather that pro-British support is somewhat weaker in Congress, given the cooler relations, and the most Wilson can manage after the sinking is an agreement for a larger French and British loan scheme for his assurance to Congress that America will not become directly involved. This changes of course when Germany begins destroying American Atlantic shipping, but America's entry is somewhat later, and on a smaller scale, with grave repercussions for later U.S./Anglo-French relations.
The Armistice is signed as in canon, but British and French resentment against the U.S. for (as they believe) waiting until the last possible moment to minimise their own casualties, remains high after the war's end. Further damaging Anglo-American relations is the mounting evidence that Irish-American agitators are active in aggravating troubles within Ireland with the tacit approval of certain elements within the U.S. Congress. As a result, Wilson's `League of Nations' comes to nothing, and the U.S. drifts more and earlier towards an isolationist agenda, whilst in Britain and France there is increasing political pressure to declare WW1 debts to the U.S. null and void.
--------------------
I won't go further now, as there are a million possibilities from here as to how the BE could be in a far better position at the beginning of WWII than in our TL. However, any suggestions as to what might happen or possible improvements to this would be very greatly appreciated.
