1703: A Franco-Bavarian army takes Vienna

[Germaniac]

Lets say the string of crap that struck the Bourbons isn't missed and Phillip is the only remaining heir. How would a war of French Succession go, would Phillip claim both thrones? Could we possibly see that Franco-Prussian Union Ive always dreamed about!!!

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

What happens a few years down the road, if/when Le Grand Dauphin, the duc d'Bourgogne, duc d'Bretagne, and duc d'Berry all die within three years (granted, by no means assured with about a decade's worth of butterflies; for instance, one could easily remove the case of measles which killed Bourgogne and Bretagne)?

That near-perfect storm was so unlikely that I don't see how I could not butterfly it away.

Fine through give Neaple, Sicily and Maybe Sicily to Archduke Charles

Why? He's the loser here and Philip's giving up part of his inheritance (the Southern Netherlands, Milan) as it is. The Habsburgs get nothing.

"Maybe Sicily"? Must be a very ambiguous place.

I think Bavaria would get Breisgau instead of the Bohemian forest.

I figure a better defensive position against Austria would be more valuable than some distant territory in the path of French armies.

France didn't seem to have much interest in territories east of the Rhine,

They had held Freiburg and Breisach, both in Breisgau, for 20 and 50 years, respectively, not long before the POD. Of course they'd be interested.

I think that Emperor would keep Hungary-Croatia without Transsylvania, the Ottomans are still a credible opponent, so the European states has a interest in a strong neighbour to it.

The fall of Vienna would mean a successful revolution in Hungary, so I don't think so. This is a Carthaginian peace for Austria, remember that. As for the Turks, the French were willing to tolerate them at the gates of Vienna, and the Maritime Powers were only concerned because it benefited France.

If Turkey tries something against Hungary or Venice it might even be France itself opposing them. And anyway, the whole purpose of dividing the Austrian Habsburgs into an Imperial and a Hungarian line is so that the latter may not aid the former (against France), not the other way around (against Turkey).

Lets say the string of crap that struck the Bourbons isn't missed and Phillip is the only remaining heir. How would a war of French Succession go, would Phillip claim both thrones?

I had a thread about this once, though with a POD after the OTL War of Spanish Succession. It didn't get too far.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=85711

 

[Gonzaga]

Why? He's the loser here and Philip's giving up part of his inheritance (the Southern Netherlands, Milan) as it is. The Habsburgs get nothing.

Maybe Sicily? Must be a very ambiguous place.

What about a compromise, where Spain and her colonies go to Philip but the Italian territories (Sardinia, Naples and Sicily, with Milan included or not) goes to Philip's younger brother, Charles of Berry. This way the Bourbons get most of the inheritance, but not under the same monarch, and all the sons of Le Grand Dauphin would be kings (as his eldest son was supposed to be king of France later).

 

[Gladi]

3) Bavaria, which also annexes Egerland, the Bohemian Forest

While I undestand that Egerland can be taken away from Bohemia as it was actually a prt of Bohemia only from 1714... But what the hell is Bohemian forest? In 1703 according to my smart book History of Land "Managment" in Czech Lands (NLN, Praha 2007) it was part of three regions. Pilsen, Prachens and Bechin(g). It is simply not a region at all. To add the area is still feudal in character and there simple is in this no context within which it could be legitimatley ruled.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Just a minor revision to the draft treaty: Add Philippsburg and Kehl to the French gain.

With regards to France making annexations in the Southern Netherlands, there just isn't anything of value they can get without alarming the Maritime Powers, with the possible exception of Luxembourg, which threatens the middle Rhine more than the Dutch Republic. There's a good reason why William of Orange had made it his goal to set the French northern border back to 1659, and why most of the few territorial losses of Louis XIV were places he had previously conquered in the Southern Netherlands. I think he'd do quite well there just keeping the border to where it was when the war broke out (no loss of Ypres and Tournai like in OTL).

What about a compromise, where Spain and her colonies go to Philip but the Italian territories (Sardinia, Naples and Sicily, with Milan included or not) goes to Philip's younger brother, Charles of Berry. This way the Bourbons get most of the inheritance, but not under the same monarch, and all the sons of Le Grand Dauphin would be kings (as his eldest son was supposed to be king of France later).

I just don't find it likely. You have to consider the unpopularity Philip risks by handing over Spanish territory.

But what the hell is Bohemian forest?

Think of it as the eastern slope of the mountains within limits I can't be bothered to come up with.

In 1703 according to my smart book History of Land "Managment" in Czech Lands (NLN, Praha 2007) it was part of three regions. Pilsen, Prachens and Bechin(g). It is simply not a region at all. To add the area is still feudal in character and there simple is in this no context within which it could be legitimatley ruled.

Prussian Guelders was simply not a region at all. The Generality Lands were simply not regions at all. Most of the bits and pieces that France had taken from the Spanish Netherlands were simply not regions at all. So what? The treaty powers weren't going to let just any bit of feudalism ruin diplomacy.

 

[Gladi]

Think of it as the eastern slope of the mountains within limits I can't be bothered to come up with.

Prussian Guelders was simply not a region at all. The Generalty Lands were sinply not regions at all. Most of the bits and pieces that France had taken from the Spanish Netherlands were simply not regions at all. So what? The treaty powers weren't going to let just any bit of feudalism ruin diplomacy.

Within the possible limits of northern slope lies two administratice centers and regional courts, norther side of Bohemian Forest is not very steep and there is pretty much no natural border in there. Some villages and towns can certainly go to Bavaria, but what are you leaving here out in the air is hndred of square kilometres.

 

[Valdemar II]

Why? He's the loser here and Philip's giving up part of his inheritance (the Southern Netherlands, Milan) as it is. The Habsburgs get nothing.

Because I xan't mention any other situation where one of loser of a war was treated such in the periode. To do such would radical overthrow the balance of Europe. Beside the Habsburg family still lose Spain and the Spanish Netherlands, while the Austrian line lose the ancestorial land of the Habsburg Tyrol, which was a major money machine (primary trade route between Germany and Italy), so they still lose big.

"Maybe Sicily"? Must be a very ambiguous place.

Sardinia of course

I figure a better defensive position against Austria would be more valuable than some distant territory in the path of French armies.

Except the French armies tended to march through Italy, and Breislau are worth a lot more than some mountain range, beside it's not farther away than Milan.

They had held Freiburg and Breisach, both in Breisgau, for 20 and 50 years, respectively, not long before the POD. Of course they'd be interested.

Good point, through they still gave them up late on, and showed little interest in regaining them.

The fall of Vienna would mean a successful revolution in Hungary, so I don't think so. This is a Carthaginian peace for Austria, remember that. As for the Turks, the French were willing to tolerate them at the gates of Vienna, and the Maritime Powers were only concerned because it benefited France.

The problem are still that major power didn't treat each other such and even with Vienna falling, the Habsburg still have Bohemia, Moravia and Silesia, to continue the war from, so I don't see it as Carthaginian, of course this peace are still quite humiating, even if Charles gain South Italy (especially if he forced to abandond his claim to the Austrian inherience)

But I think this is a quite good idea, and it show promiss.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Because I xan't mention any other situation where one of loser of a war was treated such in the periode. To do such would radical overthrow the balance of Europe. Beside the Habsburg family still lose Spain and the Spanish Netherlands, while the Austrian line lose the ancestorial land of the Habsburg Tyrol, which was a major money machine (primary trade route between Germany and Italy), so they still lose big.

France, England and the Netherlands were more than willing to treat Spain that way without it losing any war. The Habsburgs' Spanish losses consist of what they claimed, not what they controlled. The English and Dutch didn't care about Italy, didn't care about Iberia yet (Gibraltar and Minorca were still Spanish) and only cared about the Spanish colonies in a mercantile way that didn't necessarily concern sovereignty. What they cared about was the Southern Netherlands, which is why they always insisted on saddling up Austria with the territory. If the price to pay for stopping France's northward push is depriving Austria of that which it didn't control and they didn't care about, they'd gladly pay it.

In fewer words, there will be no Austrian Italy because: (1) the English and Dutch will gladly screw the Austrians there with their eye on the Southern Netherlands, and (2) the power that just got pwned has to negotiate which of its losses will be reversed and at what price, not which of its ambitions will be fulfilled.

Good point, through they still gave them up late on, and showed little interest in regaining them.

I think the words you should use are "lost them" and "couldn't regain them".

The problem are still that major power didn't treat each other such and even with Vienna falling, the Habsburg still have Bohemia, Moravia and Silesia, to continue the war from, so I don't see it as Carthaginian, of course this peace are still quite humiating, even if Charles gain South Italy (especially if he forced to abandond his claim to the Austrian inherience)

Yeah, the Habsburgs still have a lot. A lot to lose. Their remaining territory is very vulnerable and at this point what they should be worrying about is damage control. With Vienna in foreign hands and Hungary in revolt, there's no way in hell they're going to be making gains at the expense of the Sun King's grandson.

If you think I'm being too harsh (and even though I don't) then let them keep their Bohemian losses and give them, I don't know, the Presidi.

 

[Hecatee]

Let's not forget that one of the main strategic goal of Louis XIV (and latter Napoleon, among others) was to have easily defended natural borders for France. So maybe, if they are able to crush the Habsburg by taking their capital, will they push for that before anything else, forcing Austria in a separate peace while keeping the fight in the north were they suddenly have more troops availlables... In the final peace treaty they would renounce any claim east or north of the Rhine and take as many places as possible south of it. What would that give us ?

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Let's not forget that one of the main strategic goal of Louis XIV (and latter Napoleon, among others) was to have easily defended natural borders for France. So maybe, if they are able to crush the Habsburg by taking their capital, will they push for that before anything else, forcing Austria in a separate peace while keeping the fight in the north were they suddenly have more troops availlables... In the final peace treaty they would renounce any claim east or north of the Rhine and take as many places as possible south of it. What would that give us ?

I don't think Louis would be too eager himself to keep the war going. Several reasons for this:

(1) Moving his forces from Germany and Italy to the Southern Netherlands will take time, and that's if the Austrians don't entertain thoughts of heroic resistance or recapturing their capital. And if they do give in then France can't really count on Bavaria. The elector's only interest after extending his realm would be to restore his brother in Cologne and Liege, and it's very likely that the Allies would oblige if it means robbing Louis of a partner.

(2) Portugal had just defected to the Allied side, making it possible to challenge the French on Spanish soil and even in the Mediterranean. The Archduke Charles may very well refuse to give up his claim, no matter what the Emperor would like him to do, and his side can promise the Spanish an undivided empire (which is not to say it can deliver). And if the Maritime Powers do well in the Med then Savoy might switch sides too, which would really suck.

(3) The naval and colonial side of the war has been limited so far, and this was never France's good side when fighting the English or Dutch. They may end up paying in the Americas for what they gain in the north. How many colonies are the Southern Netherlands worth?

(4) The War of the Spanish Succession had started just 4 years after the War of the Grand Alliance and pretty much everybody had wanted to avoid it. In an objective analysis, having already obtained most of what it aimed at and more than it could have gotten through negotiations before the death of Charles II, France in 1703 needed peace more than it needed some extra fortresses in the north. And it needed this peace more than the Anglo-Dutch alliance that, unlike France, had actually won the previous war. For Europe's sake, by this age Louis had learned when to stop.

So yeah, the war could keep going, but even if the end result is the maintaining of the Spanish Netherlands under Bourbon rule it could still be a thinner margin of victory for Louis. It would be a stupid prolonging of what was already a stupid war.

Late edit: It was the Bavarian elector's dream to obtain the Imperial crown for his dynasty (the Wittelsbachs had 3 of the 9 electorates) or at least a royal title - the Hohenzollerns had one in Prussia, the Hanoverians in Britain, the Wettins in Poland-Lithuania, where was his? I wonder if the peace treaty can somehow accommodate the latter ambition.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Regarding the colonial war:

Given the end of the War of Spanish Succession in 1704/1705, I'd say the colonial war would result in a status quo ante bellum in the colonies, as the Americans had yet to make any signficant advances.

However France might be persuaded to "sweeten" the pot by giving England some "worthless" colonial possessions in exchange for European gains.

thats probably doubtful, as the colonial expeditions have all been abysmal failures....the French are still firmly in Port-Royal and the Spanish in St. Augustine. You may see a definitive defining of borders in the region for a change though.. The French after all still maintained claims on parts of Eastern Maine that they were hardly in a position to exercise... Penobscot, St. Croix and St. John rivers are all viable borders of French and English possessions. As to Europe... The case of Measles can easily be butterflied so its not a surety that Phillip will be in line for the French throne.

On the southern Netherlands... I think it will be hard to get the French out once they are in. They will prefer direct annexation if they can but there is an alternate route of course. Aside from minor border adjustments the S. Netherlands stays intact as the twin duchies of Flanders-Luxembourg under a Bourbon Duke. Say to the Count of Toulouse, Louis Alex, or a relative more distant from Louis himself. Phillippe, Duke of Chartres and Orleans.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Let's not forget that one of the main strategic goal of Louis XIV (and latter Napoleon, among others) was to have easily defended natural borders for France. So maybe, if they are able to crush the Habsburg by taking their capital, will they push for that before anything else, forcing Austria in a separate peace while keeping the fight in the north were they suddenly have more troops availables... In the final peace treaty they would renounce any claim east or north of the Rhine and take as many places as possible south of it. What would that give us ?

I think I would have to agree here... a separate peace between Austria and France is entirely possible

the real prizes are Spain itself, S. Netherlands and Milan If France can gain even indirect control while throwing the Austrians a bone they probably will and there will be little the maritime powers can do. So giving Charles Albert, Naples/Sardinia and Sicily would probably get you that agreement. Give Milan to Charles Emanuel with his sister ( Marie Adelaide) or Victor Amadeus as regent.
and having rethought the S. Netherlands, since they are still properly part of the Spanish inheritance it would probably have to be the Duke of Berri...though compromises are entirely possible.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

OK, here's some additions and alterations to the final treaty:

(1) The Netherlands gain Upper Guelders, Maastricht (previously a condominium with Liege), Damme, and Knokke. The Dutch barrier is to consist of Nieuport, Ostend, Bruges, Ghent, Dendermonde, Oudenarde, Halle, Ath, Mons, Binche, Charleroi, and Namur. Luxembourg remains Spanish and Liege stays within its old borders. Prussia only receives Spanish Limburg from this partition. The rest of the Southern Netherlands go to Leopold of Lorraine as compensation for the loss of his duchy to France.

(2) Austria keeps the Bohemian Forest and Oppeln but still loses the Tyrol and makes no gains in Italy. Prussia takes Liegnitz, Wohlau, Brieg, and Jagerndorf, its claim to which would be used as a pretext for the First Silesian War in OTL.

(3) The imperial cities of Nuremberg, Ratisbon, Augsburg, and Ulm are annexed to Bavaria, as is Neuburg, the Bavarian part of the Elector Palatine's realm. Bavaria is granted the right to appoint the bishops of Hildesheim, Munster, Cologne, Liege, Augsburg, Freising, Ratisbon, Passau, Berchtesgaden, Salzburg, Brixen, and Trent from within its own dynasty.

(4) Mantua receives Modena and Guastalla and in exchange cedes Montferrat to Savoy. The Duchy of Milan south of the Po is also gained by Savoy, with the rest becoming Bavarian.

(5) France also gains Finale and Susa in Italy, Montbeliard, Salm, Bad Durkheim, Kaiserslautern, Pirmasens, Saarwerden, and Saarbrucken in the northeast, and Couvin, Courtrai, Dixmude, and Veurne in the Southern Netherlands.

(6) England and the Netherlands receive equal trading rights with France in Spanish America. France recognizes English sovereignty over Newfoundland but keeps Plaisance in the Avalon Peninsula and obtains a right for its fishermen to fish and dry their catch on the island's western shore. Hudson's Bay, the Dutch part of St Martin and Poulo Condore are transferred to France, St Augustine and the French part of St Kitts to England, Mobile and Casablanca to Spain, the Prussian Gold Coast to the Netherlands. The northern and southern borders of the English colonies in North America are precisely defined so as to avoid further disputes.

The first point contains the most significant change to the first draft. France takes Lorraine, whose duke is compensated with the more important of the Southern Netherlands.

I've been having some thoughts about the Great Northern War. Charles XII wanted to depose Augustus the Strong and his most obvious replacement on the Polish throne would have been one of the Sobieskis. Maximilian II Emanuel of Bavaria was married to a daughter of John Sobieski and the couple had already had many sons. He might consider negotiating with Charles to have one of them crowned Polish king in exchange for military aid against Saxony and, if they break their neutrality, Austria and Prussia.

 

[pompejus]

Prussia only receives Spanish Limburg.

Spanish Limburg isn't much, I suggest giving Prussia part of northern Luxemburg.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Spanish Limburg isn't much, I suggest giving Prussia part of northern Luxemburg.

They got Oppeln too, and since their contribution to the war was still quite minor I think this is enough. They were only assigned the Southern Netherlands because I couldn't think of anyone more acceptable. Now I have. Even in the OTL peace treaty, when they were on the winning side, their gain was about as modest.

Edit: Oppeln stays Austrian, instead I gave the Prussians a larger area of Silesia.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

It has come to my attention that there is likely to be a succession crisis over Tuscany. So a provision of the Franco-Austrian agreement would be that, should Cosimo III of Tuscany die without any male heir, Austria will put forward and France will support the Archduke Charles (the one who got Hungary) as heir over most of his grand duchy, with Siena to pass to Spain and Pontremoli to Mantua.

Then there's Parma. If Elisabeth Farnese's brothers both die childless as in OTL (no idea how inevitable that was, biology may or may not have been involved) it will pass to her offspring. In 1703 she's unmarried and Philip V of Spain, her OTL husband, is still married to Maria Luisa of Savoy, whose early death from tuberculosis would be butterflied away. I'm not sure how aware Europe's bigwigs were of the potential change of dynasty, but if they were considering it then there will be a contest for her hand between, I expect, the Archduke Charles (whose Tuscan claim would be strengthened by such a marriage) and the Duke of Berry.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Here's a map of Europe at the eve of the war:

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

OK, now I'm gonna need some help with this. I ask our Scandinavian experts, would Charles XII have accepted the elector's proposal, and would this save him enough time to make victory possible in the Great Northern War? I ask our Brit experts, how goes the Scottish succession issue, and how else could it go? And I ask our Spanish experts, would Philip still have a policy of centralization in a TL where he wasn't faced with such strong opposition in Spain?

In the tradition of 1678, 1697 and OTL 1713, the peace should be signed somewhere in the Netherlands. I think Breda or Middelburg would be appropriate.

As for the Farnese issue, I think I'm gonna have Elisabeth marry Charles. She was a very ambitious woman and would have preferred an actual king, even of "Asiatic" Hungary, and likely future grand duke of Tuscany, to some mere duke who might, but probably won't, inherit the throne of France or Spain. But she's only 10 at the time of the POD, so that marriage is at least a few years away.

Oh yeah, and I've been thinking about joining Leopold's Netherlands (the Duchy of Brabant, the Counties of Flanders, Hainaut and Namur, and the Lordship of Mechlin) into some sort of Grand Duchy/Archduchy of Belgium/Lower Lorraine or something like that. Just to ease the flow of words. I think Leopold would try to cash in on the colonial trade like the Austrians did in OTL with the Ostend Company, but he'll depend so much on English and Dutch support that he'll be forced to back down even faster than the Emperor.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

So here's the beginning of what might end up as an actual TL. Comments would be very appreciated, since I'm tired of being the only one to post anything in this thread.

1703

A Franco-Bavarian army takes Vienna. The Habsburgs and their German allies sign a separate peace at Carlsbad.

Having accomplished most of its objectives, Bavaria also signs a separate peace with the Allies at Nuremberg.

1704

Bavaria joins the Great Northern War on the Swedish side. The secret agreement between the 2 sides provides that Sweden will support the candidature of one of the elector's sons (and he had many of them, all very young), provided he renounces his rights to the Bavarian succession and Charles XII himself is made regent. Bavaria must invade Saxony through the Egerland and go to war with the Habsburgs and Prussia should they intervene against Sweden.

The Treaty of Middelburg ends the War of the Spanish Succession. The content of the 3 treaties signed so far has been discussed in the previous posts; if there's too little clarity, I'll try to condense them all into one.

A son, Ferdinand, is born to Archduke Joseph and his wife Wilhelmina. I plan on having this one actually live long enough to be a father himself, so I'm going to avoid an Austrian succession issue.

Saxony exits the Great Northern War by the Treaty of Berlin, signed under Prussian mediation. Augustus the Strong renounces the Polish crown, but not before giving Polish Livonia and Pilten to Sweden and granting Courland independence. The Prussians had been somewhat friendly to Sweden and were hoping they could reap some reward from the war, such as Warmia from Poland or Lusatia from Saxony, but the Bavarian intervention made them unneeded as an ally.

Emperor Leopold dies and is succeeded by his son Joseph.

Faced with the prospect of an invasion by Sweden and possibly Bavaria, Austria agrees to grant religious tolerance to the Silesian Protestants.

An election sejm surrounded by Swedish and Bavarian troops chooses Philip, 2nd son of Maximilian II Emanuel of Bavaria and grandson of John Sobieski, as King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania, on the condition that he renounces his rights of succession in Bavaria, and appoints Charles XII of Sweden as regent. In practice the regency is exercised by the Swedish general Arvid Horn, as Charles is off campaigning against Russia.

1706

The Principality of Neuchatel passes to Francis Louis, Prince of Conti, upon the extinction of the House of Orleans-Longueville, in accordance with the Treaty of Carlsbad, which had required the Prussian king to renounce his candidacy. The estates of the Calvinist principality, fearful of a French invasion, accept the Catholic claimant on the condition that he guarantee the freedom of their religion.

The Bourbons and Habsburgs agree on the future division of Tuscany.

1707

The Netherlands realm of Leopold, former Duke of Lorraine, is recognized by the Emperor as the Archduchy of Lower Lorraine. The Imperial Diet approves the electoral seat of Hanover.

1709

King Charles of Hungary marries Elisabeth Farnese. Their eldest son will be heir to both Hungary and Parma.

Having little hope of ever retaking the Polish throne, Augustus the Strong abandons Catholicism, which he had only adopted for the sake of that throne, and reverts to Lutheranism.

With regards to Scotland, I think that an early end to the war would reduce its ability to blackmail the English over the succession issue. There will be no Act of Security and no Act of Union in response. An Anglo-Scottish(-Irish?) union is eventually coming, but with peace on the Continent there will not be such a hurry about it in England.

The results of Charles XII's campaign in Russia will be covered once I have some idea what they are.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

1705

Charles XII sets his eyes on bringing down his Russian foe and ending the war. Because less time was wasted in defeating the Saxons the Russians have not yet advanced into Poland-Lithuania, and as a result the decision is made to evict them from the Baltic rather than to attack them in the Ukraine.

Celle is inherited by Hanover.

1706

Having been forced to abandon the new capital he was building at St Petersburg and to pull out of Swedish territory, the tsar decides to make peace with Sweden as soon as possible. He fears the Poles may soon recover sufficiently to declare war on him, and the Swedes may even bring Crimea to their side. There is also a great deal among the Cossacks and boyars. The Treaty of Dorpat restores the prewar Russo-Swedish border and transfers Smolensk to Poland-Lithuania. Peter pledges not to interfere in the affairs of the Commonwealth in general and the Right-bank Ukraine in particular. Johann Patkul, the Livonian noble who had instigated the anti-Swedish alliance, is surrendered to Swedish jurisdiction and executed in Riga.

1708

Charles XII marries Sophia Dorothea, daughter of the Hanoverian elector.

I'm thinking that the Ottomans ought to be trying something just about now.