Would Japan surrender conditionally without an invasion or atomic bombs?

I was reading a debate about the necessity of dropping the nuclear bombs to get Japan to surrender. One side brought up the prospect of invasion being far bloodier than the nukes, while the other side countered that forcing Japan to surrender was not necessary in the first place and it wasn't worth nuking, invading, or blockading Japan just to get their unconditional capitulation.

In short, the anti-nuke, anti-invasion advocate was suggesting that Japan be simply allowed to burn itself out, without the US trying to occupy it or effect regime change. Eventually the war would end and the participants would come to terms.

Now I didn't add "blockade" to the question in the thread title because I think it would have been rather impossible to keep Japan functionally defeated without some form of blockade, but the intensity of such operations could be dialed up or down obviously.

I know that the US not seeking unconditional surrender is probably not politically plausible, but let's say that for whatever reason, the Americans didn't care about getting an unconditional surrender from the Japanese and were willing to vastly reduce the scale of Japan-focused operations in the Pacific War following the capture of Okinawa, precluding a complete blockade and disruption of civilian shipping in Japan.

-- Would this have been militarily feasible? Or would the Japanese retain enough warmaking capacity to continue fighting the US forces indefinitely, even with their territory being eventually reduced to just the home islands?
-- Would the Japanese have eventually sued for peace (i.e. conditional surrender)? How long would this take?
-- What would Japan look like after 1945?
-- What would the effects on the rest of Asia and the postwar world be?
 
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Yes, the US targets the rail network, it was extremely vulnerable. Transportation of food stops and millions starve. Not a US boot on Japanese soil.
As it was, the US had to ship in and transport food for millions of people in late 1945 and 1946.
 
Yes, the US targets the rail network, it was extremely vulnerable. Transportation of food stops and millions starve. Not a US boot on Japanese soil.
As it was, the US had to ship in and transport food for millions of people in late 1945 and 1946.
I didn't word the scenario clearly. I meant without a total blockade and disruption of domestic shipping.
 
I didn't word the scenario clearly. I meant without a total blockade and disruption of domestic shipping.
But there's no reason at all this would occur... the US Navy holds all the cards, plus the jokers by 1945... the IJN can't do diddly squat to contest or stop any blockade of their home islands.

If the US chose not to invade but rather starve Japan to submission, it would and it definitely could. Millions of innocent people would die. Eventually someone in the Japanese leadership would have to see sense and agree to unconditional surrender.

Had to edit upon further thought. There is nothing at all nice about this option. I can't stress enough how bad this would be for Japan. Even the US planners back in WWII must have known this, which is why they decided to directly invade rather than do it the easy way. Before the A bomb changed things
 
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I don't see how, absent ASB intervention, Imperial Japan is going to be allowed by Washington D.C. to dictate terms and conditions for its surrender after Pearl Harbour, the Bataan Death March, and various other offences and atrocities against the USA. The USA is going to keep coming for Imperial Japan, by whatever means are necessary, until Imperial Japan completely and utterly capitulates.

And given that in the Original Timeline, with the Indian Army starting to get really stuck in destroying/liberating the IJ Asian empire, US submarines and bombers putting the IJ merchant fleet on the seabed, Stalin having turned on Imperial Japan, and the US airforce burning IJ towns and cities down from one end of the Home Islands to the other - even with all that - part of the IJ military still tried to coup the Emperor and carry on fighting I can't see how destruction any less than that of the Original Timeline is going to persuade IJ to deliver a surrender that Washington D.C. finds acceptable.

As far as I understad it, it's irresistible force (the USA's determination to get unconditional surrender after the wrongs it perceives it has suffered and the USA's vast resources which allow it to just keep coming and coming) versus almost immovable object (Imperial Japan's belief that the USA is weak-willed and doesn't have what it takes to defeat Imperial Japan, if Imperial Japan just keeps fighting.)
 
One of the main reasons why it is argued is because of Cold War hysteria of nukes and nuclear power. Many of these people probably still believe Hiroshima and Nagasaki is still wastelands.
The atomic bombs were necessary.
 
I didn't word the scenario clearly. I meant without a total blockade and disruption of domestic shipping.
But this was the US intention since the inception of War Plan Orange before 1910, they just didn't know about an Atomic Bomb. If they don't do this then there is no reason to fight all the way across the Pacific to set up close bases and just throttle Japan. It's the US way of war - it worked with the Confederate States. The mining of Japanese ports by B-29s was one of the most economical campaigns of all time, just 160 aircraft shut down the ports.

See Operation Starvation.
After the war, the commander of Japan's mine sweeping operations noted that he thought this mining campaign could have directly led to the defeat of Japan on its own had it begun earlier. Similar conclusions were reached by American analysts who reported in July 1946 in the Strategic Bombing Survey that it would have been more efficient to combine the United States' effective anti-shipping submarine effort with land- and carrier-based air power to strike harder against merchant shipping and begin a more extensive aerial mining campaign earlier in the war. This would have starved Japan, forcing an earlier end to the war.[

Note this was the good old days when they named an operation without concern it offending anyone. I'm looking at you "Operation Enduring Freedom" formerly known as "Operation Infinite Justice".
 
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In short, the anti-nuke, anti-invasion advocate was suggesting...
What colour is their cardigan?
...suggesting that Japan be simply allowed to burn itself out, without the US trying to occupy it or effect regime change. Eventually the war would end and the participants would come to terms.
You mean like the Korean War? Removing the 3rd biggest global economy and replacing it with a offshore North Korea is a good thing?
 

Sekhmet_D

Kicked
In short, the anti-nuke, anti-invasion advocate was suggesting that Japan be simply allowed to burn itself out, without the US trying to occupy it or effect regime change. Eventually the war would end and the participants would come to terms.
They will not burn out of their own accord if left alone. Not as long as there is breath in their lungs. You can bet all the money in the world on the likelihood that the moment the pressure on them is eased, and the moment America decides to look the other way, the Japanese are going to formulate and implement some diabolical scheme or other to strike back.
 
What about the 400,000 civilians dying in Japanese occupied territory per month in summer of 1945? Or the 110,000 allied pows set for execution on sept 1 1945?
 
Japan would have capitulated if the US was willing to spend the time in a blockade/siege without doing an invasion.
It would have cost millions more in Japanese lives from starvation and LeMay's forces burning down everything but the smallest hamlet.
What was missing was the willingness to spend time.
The US people wanted the war with Japan over NOW.
Invading the home island was going to happen to bring the full power of the American Army against Japan to force a surrender as quickly as possible.
The atomic bombings gave the growing faction of Japanese officials who acknowledged the futility of continued resistance a way to rally support and over-ride the death-and-glory boys NOW instead of after another year or two of slow agonizing strangulation.
 
What colour is their cardigan?

You mean like the Korean War? Removing the 3rd biggest global economy and replacing it with a offshore North Korea is a good thing?
This is kind of what I figured would happen as well. I was mainly interested in whether peace from the Japanese side would even be possible in this context.

[USER=136435 said:
Bellacinos[/USER]]What about the 400,000 civilians dying in Japanese occupied territory per month in summer of 1945? Or the 110,000 allied pows set for execution on sept 1 1945?
I don't think the people debating the issue considered this. Incidentally, this is the main reason I consider the atomic bombings justified.
I don't see how, absent ASB intervention, Imperial Japan is going to be allowed by Washington D.C. to dictate terms and conditions for its surrender after Pearl Harbour, the Bataan Death March, and various other offences and atrocities against the USA. The USA is going to keep coming for Imperial Japan, by whatever means are necessary, until Imperial Japan completely and utterly capitulates.
Yes, this is why I specified that we handwave the political implausibility of the whole thing. I know that in a realistic scenario the US will not stop at Okinawa and then suddenly call it a day.
As far as I understand it, it's irresistible force (the USA's determination to get unconditional surrender after the wrongs it perceives it has suffered and the USA's vast resources which allow it to just keep coming and coming) versus almost immovable object (Imperial Japan's belief that the USA is weak-willed and doesn't have what it takes to defeat Imperial Japan, if Imperial Japan just keeps fighting.)
Well this gets at the core of the scenario. If the total economic pressure on Japan is mostly eliminated, but their offensive warmaking potential is almost completely destroyed (there would still be bombing of military facilities, factories, any ship that is built gets rapidly sunk Shinano-style right out of port, etc), would they consider surrender? Or would they just think "wow these Americans are really weak, let's keep finding insane and retarded glorious ways to strike back and turn the tide"?
 
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I don't think the people debating the issue considered this. Incidentally, this is the main reason I consider the atomic bombings justified.

110%, if I had no knowledge of ww2 and was told that America dropped the atomic bombs because the Japanese had killed 27,000,000 civilians and were killing 400,000 per month in 1945, to me thats enough justification without ever mentioning “Operation Downfall.”
 
Let me see if I can paraphrase this..
Sarcasm mode engaged…
”The US,GB and their Allie’s were big bad bullies that insisted on kicking poor helpless Japan by Bombing them and threatening to invade. And if they had only been nicer and given poor little Japan a chance it would have seen the error of its ways and ended the war without this Nasty Wasty nukes or an invasion “
Does that more or less sum it up?
Sarcasm mode ended…

And exactly what makes you believe that Japan would surrender on its own if just left alone? Other then wishful thinking and revisionist history?

Part of the Japanese military didn’t want to surrender in the OTL after firebombings (that could be worse then the Nukes) and with the Two nukes and with the blockade and with the destruction up to that point of the Navy and the elimination of most of Japans army.
But somehow Japan was going to magically have a change of heart, realizing it had just been ”wrong” and surrender.
You do realize that unlike Germany Much of Japan STILL does not teach or otherwise get that what it did in WW2 was wrong.
And Japan Sure planned on fighting through any invasion its preparations for being invaded are well documented. So if they in part wanted to fight on after the Nukes and had big plans to fight on after the Invasion and had fought on after the war had OBVIOUSLY turn against them just what in Sams Hill would lead yof to believe that leaving the alone would get them to surrender?

This is yet again another of these posts we get here about every other month or so that seams to have as it’s sole and only point to try and “prove” that the US was actually the evil bad guy in WW2 because it hurt poor little Japan. And it used those nasty waste nuclear weapons.

Frankly this entire topic and all its older relatives with more or less the same point is ridiculous in the extreme and sorry if I sound harsh but this constant rehashing of this frankly stupid concept is getting old. It is also insulting to all those that fought in the war and suffered so horribly to secure the victory.
It is past time that we create for this concept the equivalent of the Infamous Sea Mammal treatment. One spot we can send all of the people with this idea to.

Now for some general observations
1) Unconditional Surrender: This was extremely common in war for as long as it has existed. Genghis Khan insisted upon it. The Alliance t hat took out Nepoleon insisted upon it, And we get it in wars from the US Civil war yo WW1 (yes it started out like it would be negotiated but the West dictated 100% of the terms) If you TRULY win a war it comes with unconditional surrender. Conditions only happen if one side is tireed if fighting but the other side can’t really beat them such as the Russia/Japanese war in which Japan won all the battles that counted but could never invade Russia and force it to unconditional surrender. Or is both sides have just had enough and want to go home. Or Alternatively you can have one side offer some terms to get an early surrender. Usually these terms are more face saving then anything.

2) The Nuclear Bombs: these have way way way too much propaganda behind them. And they were in no way shape or form the nasty easty terrible realky bad and scary bombs that many (most?) seam to think they were. They did not make Japan uninhabitable nor did they do more destruction or kill more people then the US (And Great Britain for that matter) could do if the wanted. And in fact it can easily be pointed out that the Firebombing of Tokyo was worse and that even in Europe with its more resilient construction the firebombing of cities such as Hamburg demonstrated that you don’t need a nuclear weapon to destroy as city and or kill tens if not hundreds of thousands of people. If you have a big enough fleet of bombers and more of less control the airspace
What the Nuclear Bombs DID DO was demonstrate that the US could do with one Aircraft and one bomb what used to take hundreds if not thousands of bombers to do.
The significance of this is to Japan in WW2 was that Japan was hoping for EXACTLY what the OP is suggesting. That the US would more of less decide that invading Japan would be too deadly And that maintaining a long term blockade and bombing campaign would be too costly and that the US would just get tiered of the war and go home to there nice homes and their families. Because despite everything that had happened during the war Japan still thought the US was soft and would not pay the price to achieve total victory. And the OPs suggestion would play into that completely tgus Japan would NEVER surrender.
But with the Atomic Bombs it was definitively demonstrated that the US didn’t need to keep thousands of bombers and hundreds of thousands of men on hand to keep destroying Japan they could just send one Bomber a week and destroy one city or military base per aircraft and this was easily maintained. So any chance that Japan could cause so many US deaths be fighting off an invasion was gone and Japan realized it. So at that point they knew they could never inflict enough death on the US for them to give up as Japan would never be allowed to get close enough to the US to truly harm them again as the US would simply stand back and nuke them into the Stone Age.

3) Historical Revisionism and the Bad reputation of the “BOMB”. Between books writen by folks that have a vested interest in making Japan look better or the US look worse and the propaganda machine that has had 70 years to try and make nuclear weapons look bad we have an amazing amount of folks today that both underestimate how bad Japan was, how stubborn parts of the Japanese Military and Government was and at the same time make the Atomic Bombs look like the evilest weapons ever devised and that only truly evil governments would own them much less ever USE them. When in reality the Atomic weapons used in WW2 were not all that much more cat then a 1000 bomber raid. Yes they had radiation and fall out issues but even these are greatly exaggerated. Don’t get me wrong they are powerful weapons that hopefully will never be used again, But the destruction of other cities both inJapan and in Germany demonstrates that they were not THAT much worse then what could be done conventionally.

4) Total war vs Modern war. Another point that I think is often lost today is that modern warfare is not the same as WW2 was. Starting with Korea and all the way up through the Current mess in most wars we have had one side which was in no way threatened by the other side. For example Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm etc the US could lose the war but it would mot Effect the US itself. Same thing with Say the Falklands and GB or Afghanistan and the USSR. So these were all limited conflicts, So these wars could “aford” to be more limited in the weapons used and how they were used and as the technology allowed for more accuracy it was possible to chose one or two buildings in a city to be targeted where as in WW2 you were doing good if you could hit a give section of a city. So our wars have became much ”cleaner” and less generally destructive as the years have gone by. (Yes war is still horrible, but in general the horror is more conf than in the past.
As for true wars of survival where the losing sides both stood a good chance of having there existence ended or at least radically changed they have been between smaller countries with less ability to field massive armies and Airforce and such as the great powers of WW2 could. So while horribly destructive they too were on a much reduced scale the WW2.
So it is wrong to try and judge the war WW2 (or any other war from long ago) by the standards we use today.

As for OPs original suggestion. Not only is it ASB levels of impossible to get the US to do it which is why he makes no attempt whatsoever to explain how it happened, but is it also a tru stupid idea from the point of view of the US and it’s Allies. As it would play right into the hands of the Japanese in that it would indicate (rightly or not) to Japan that the US and the Allies were weak willed and would not be willing yo pay the cost to see the war to its final conclusion and as a result of this Japan would fight on. As such the assumption that Japan would surrender on anything close to terms that the US or anyone else would accept is flat wrong. As noted elsewhere even with everything that happened a faction of the Japanese government/military didn’t want yo surrender so going easy on them sure is not going yo get them to give up.
At “best” Japan would try for a cease-fire and a peace along the lines of.. you go home and we go back to pre WW2 positions . Thus making the Pacific war pointless from the point of view of the Allie’s.

So the OPs suggestion is both ASB and frankly about the Dumbest thing the US could do. The US and its Allie’s had the equipment, the technology and the manpower in place and the strategic positioning to end the war and they did so. Slowing. Down and holding off would have ultimately destroyed that and probably gave Japan the advantage to force a tie. As even the US in WW2 was not in a position that it could afford economically nor politicly to sustain its forces at this level indefinitely. Its men (and women) had fought hard and paid dearly to get to the point that they could with just a bit more effort, force Japan to surrender. And you want them to give up on that? And let Japan negotiate its way out of the very mess that Japan created not with one dumb idea to attack one country but by a serious of attacks on MULTIPLE countries that did nothing to Japan but stand in there way ranging from China to the US to France GB and Australia to name but a few.
Japan had spent decades on this course of action deliberately attacking others. This goes in part as far back as it’s war vs Russia. And while its military and its government had gotten worse over the years this was nothing new to Japan. It didn’t just wake up one morning in 1941 and say.. “hay I have an idea let’s attack the US AND GB and all their allies“. This was decades of bad decision, and the belief that only Japan was strong enough. And everyone else was too weak willed to resist them. Reinf by the simple fact that no one Had resisted them. Jest as the argument that France and GB giving in to Hitler early on created the monster that we ended up with Japan constantly get away with its various aggressions spawned its actions in December of 1941.
And as an added bonus. If you want a racist government then you have no farther to look than Japan in WW2. While the US GB and the rest were by no means good about this back then. Japan made them all look good. Its very war policy was predicated on the Superiority of the Japanese People over EVERYONE ELSE in the world and they knew they could not truly win the war by sheer military force or economic power but that the rest of the world would simply not stand up to the cost it would take to beat Japan. It was sheer arrogance and racism that made Japan believe that it would win against multiple stronger opponents all at the same time simply because the Japanese People were that much better then everyone else.

So hopefully this thread will stick a stake through the heart of this topic once and for all. Because the constant repeats of this basic concept is getting out of control.
 
Something to keep in mind is that the Japanese apparently have the ability to build indestructible objects is they chose:
1712843769367.jpeg

(Gate actualy but you get the idea :) )

Randy
 
Let me see if I can paraphrase this..
...
So hopefully this thread will stick a stake through the heart of this topic once and for all. Because the constant repeats of this basic concept is getting out of control.
I appreciate the time and effort you put into this response, but my point wasn't to vindicate the anti-nuke argument. The thread, if you read it carefully, was supposed to be an exploration of what paths Japan might take (or be capable of taking) if it lost all its overseas possessions, basically all its offensive capabilities, and was reduced as close as possible to defeat without actually being defeated. The topic is not about whether the US would have decided to allow this scenario to occur. The inspiration for the thread was an exchange between two others I observed discussing the situation. I personally believe the atomic bombs were the best solution considering the circumstances.
 
I don't think Japan would have negotiated. All of the peace feelers in 1945 didn't actually represent the wishes of the government, which was vehemently opposed to surrender. Unless there was a regime change, I don't think Japan would have surrendered.
 
Something to keep in mind is that the Japanese apparently have the ability to build indestructible objects is they chose:
View attachment 900360
(Gate actualy but you get the idea :) )

Randy
Nagasaki_One_Legged_Torii_C1946.jpg


I lived in Japan in the 60s visited Nagaski and Hirshima this is the tori I always remembered. If the Japanese hardliners had had their way every japanese civilian would have died for the Emporer.
 
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