If Timur lived longer, "he would undoubtedly have reestablished Turko-Mongol rule" over China. What?

Intransigent Southerner

From p. 67 in The Teleology of the Modern State, an anthology about East Asian history:

Tamerlane died in February 1405, at the age of sixty-nine. Had he lived another year or two, he would undoubtedly have reestablished Turko-Mongol Islamic rule over the EAH [East Asian Heartland, i.e. North China], and the history of the world would have been very different indeed.
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And this isn't from some random nobody on alternatehistory.com, this is from Victor H. Mair, a renowned historian of China.

Obvious questions:
  • Why on earth does Mair think Timur could have conquered Ming China at all?
  • Why does he think Timur could not only have conquered Ming China, but done it all in an "year or two"?
 
Avrorrange

Avrorrange

Probably because the author's audience are westerners.I get the feeling that a lot of Westerners tends to underrate the martial strength of Chinese while wanking the Mongols as hard as possible.
Youngmarshall said:
It's not like Timur lost many battles.
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It's not like his potential opponent Zhu Di lost many battles either.

Historically,nobody has succeeded in conquering a large part of China from the west for very good reasons--the west is simply full of harsh terrain that are either poor or difficult to attack.And importantly,the entity Timur is attacking is a dynasty at the height of it's power.
 

The Undead Martyr

Tamerlane was a very old man at the time, based out of Transoxiana and Persia rather than Mongolia. He would also be fighting a unified China at the peak of its dynastic stability, rather than a tripartite division, one of which- the Jin- had the problem that they were a foreign minority ruling over resentful Han Chinese.

It took Ghengis Khan- one of if not the most intelligent and capable political and military leaders that humanity has ever birthed- decades of effort to conquer only part of China. Tamerlane is a skilled commander but he's not as good as Ghengis IMO and he's much worse as a politician and dynastic actor (Ghenghis managed to keep his dynasty going strong for multiple generations). The worst he can do is make thousands die.

Now the question IMHO is what effects this has on the Ming, if any. IIRC the Imjin War placed considerable strain on the Ming state and dynasty, contributing to their eventual collapse, although the economic and especially agricultural upheavals were more important.
 
Avrorrange

Avrorrange

The Undead Martyr said:
Tamerlane was a very old man at the time, based out of Transoxiana and Persia rather than Mongolia. He would also be fighting a unified China at the peak of its dynastic stability, rather than a tripartite division, one of which- the Jin- had the problem that they were a foreign minority ruling over resentful Han Chinese.

It took Ghengis Khan- one of if not the most intelligent and capable political and military leaders that humanity has ever birthed- decades of effort to conquer only part of China. Tamerlane is a skilled commander but he's not as good as Ghengis IMO and he's much worse as a politician and dynastic actor (Ghenghis managed to keep his dynasty going strong for multiple generations). The worst he can do is make thousands die.

Now the question IMHO is what effects this has on the Ming, if any. IIRC the Imjin War placed considerable strain on the Ming state and dynasty, contributing to their eventual collapse, although the economic and especially agricultural upheavals were more important.
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I'd say the economic effects on China would be pretty irrelevant at this time.An important thing about why a lot of dynasties rise and fall in China was because when a dynasty's new,there tends to be plenty of lands to be distributed to the peasants,whose taxes form the bulk of government revenue.As time pass though,the population would rise but a lot of peasants would be dispossessed of their lands by landlords of the scholar class who would have the peasants work for them instead as tenant farmers and generally possessed tax exemption or actually dodge the few taxes they are actually required to pay.This means the dynasty's revenues would gradually decrease over time.As a consequence of these individuals forming the government,any attempt by the emperor to tax the scholar class would be met by protest or outright bureaucratic non-compliance if the emperor tried to force the issue through.
 
Basileus444

Basileus444

Achaemenid Rome said:
Are we out of touch? No. It's the historians who are wrong.
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Yeah, the word of an accredited historian with a PhD working from his field of expertise cuts far more weight with me than random Internet posters.

I postulate Dr. Mair's argument is based on the following. Timur has proven himself to be a leader of military genius, with a powerful and veteran army under his command that has trounced the Golden Horde, the Delhi Sultanate, the Mamelukes, and the Ottomans under Bayezid Yilderim, himself no slouch in the military department. Meanwhile assuming the campaign begins around 1405-06, China has just come out of a civil war from the Yongle Emperor overthrowing the Jianwen Emperor. Furthermore the Mongols are still a threat as the Yongle Emperor has not launched any of his campaigns against them.

On a further note, I observe that the OP has not paid attention even to the quote of Dr. Mair they posted. He was referring to a possible Timurid conquest of northern China; he was not claiming that Timur could control all of China in a year or two.
 
Avrorrange

Avrorrange

Basileus444 said:
Yeah, the word of an accredited historian with a PhD working from his field of expertise cuts far more weight with me than random Internet posters.

I postulate Dr. Mair's argument is based on the following. Timur has proven himself to be a leader of military genius, with a powerful and veteran army under his command that has trounced the Golden Horde, the Delhi Sultanate, the Mamelukes, and the Ottomans under Bayezid Yilderim, himself no slouch in the military department. Meanwhile assuming the campaign begins around 1405-06, China has just come out of a civil war from the Yongle Emperor overthrowing the Jianwen Emperor. Furthermore the Mongols are still a threat as the Yongle Emperor has not launched any of his campaigns against them.

On a further note, I observe that the OP has not paid attention even to the quote of Dr. Mair they posted. He was referring to a possible Timurid conquest of northern China; he was not claiming that Timur could control all of China in a year or two.
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I find the prospect of Timur taking Northern China alone impossible.Most definitely,the Mongols of the north have conflicting goals with Timur,each having their own agendas.Timur's also operating too far from his home base.He basically has to pass through some of the most inhospitable terrain on earth to get to China and in the process,he would have to pass through the lands of entities who might attack his supply lines or actually resist his passage.If he decides to skip bringing infantry and get an all nomad army to reduce supply and improve mobility,he's still screwed.There's a good reason why no entity has successfully conquered (North)China through the west--it's because western China has excellent defensive terrain where further journey to the east is unaccessible except for a few narrow passes.This is like asking the Mongol army to fight in Switzerland.

Add to that,Zhu Di's also a military genius with a powerful veteran army under his command.His army was not only trained to fight nomads like Mongols,but included a lot of Mongol auxiliaries as well.Plus Zhu Di's got the numbers and the money to fight this war.

The guy may have a PhD in Chinese history,but that doesn't mean he's accredited to make speculations on potential military conflicts.The people qualified to even make an academic judgement on such a topic would be military historians who actually have a background in how wars are conducted.To make things worst,he didn't bother to even add explanations as to why he thought that Timur would be anywhere remotely successful on this final campaign.Also,the term 'undoubtedly' is way too absolute even if you have evidence to back you up.It is ridiculous to be so absolute on something you are entirely speculating.
 
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MonAngel

Tamerlane certainly could won a lot of battles against Ming Dynasty, because he was one of the most brilliant military genius general. He even could occupy in short term Northern China. But what then? He was too old by 1405, so he don't have time to complete the conquest even if it was possible? In order to complete Chinese conquest he need to 1st pacify Mongolian proper and integrate it in his Empire, then establish power base in Northern China. Only after that he can successfully conquer whole China. It wil require decades if not century to implement.

Only chance Tamerlane establish Mongol-Turkic control over Northern China is:
1. If Northern Yuan and Tamerlane launched joint campaign against in early 1370's.
2. Ayushridar Khaan lived much longer, say early 1400's and had some competent successor.
This would give enough powerbase to Mongolians block Ming Dynasty.
 

MonAngel

Gasmask134 said:
Japan evidently :p
So basically we have two undefeated warriors fighting in a no rules cage match for the title of Emperor of China?
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I wouldn't have compared 2 of them. All his greatness Zhu Di never faced serious qualitative opponent. Unlike Tamerlane, Zhu Di always had numbers and quality on his side.
 
Gasmask134

Gasmask134

MonAngel said:
I wouldn't have compared 2 of them. All his greatness Zhu Di never faced serious qualitative opponent. Unlike Tamerlane, Zhu Di always had numbers and quality on his side.
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So Tamerlane has the quality.

Does Tamerlane also outnumber Zhu Di in this hypothetical WW- I mean, conflict then?
 
Avrorrange

Avrorrange

MonAngel said:
I wouldn't have compared 2 of them. All his greatness Zhu Di never faced serious qualitative opponent. Unlike Tamerlane, Zhu Di always had numbers and quality on his side.
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The fuck are you talking about?When Zhu Di raised his rebellion,he only had eight hundred soldiers.At the climax of the war,he fought and successfully defeated an army of over five hundred thousand with only one hundred thousand.
 

MonAngel

darthfanta said:
The fuck are you talking about?When Zhu Di raised his rebellion,he only had eight hundred soldiers.At the climax of the war,he fought and successfully defeated an army of over five hundred thousand with only one hundred thousand.
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Please check your manner and wording. I'm not here to hear someone's insult.
 
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