WI: Napoleon dies around the time of the birth of Napoleon II.

[Alstein]

Davout would probably be the new army chief right? I'd take 1812 Davout as almost equal to 1812 Nappy, maybe even superior. Allies would probably not try avoiding Davout 1813-style the first time as well.
Berthier is still alive as well.

Also, I'd assume GDoW would have some defenses, and Poniatowski might try to claim that- and Poniatowski was pretty competent and beloved by Poles. If France and Austria stay in alliance, I think the GDoW can survive.

 

[Magnum]

Iirc in 1809 Napoleon himself made quite heavy weather of it just against Austria alone - losing Aspern and winning a very hard-fought one at Wagram. So how is some lesser figure going to do against all three eastern powers?

The latter, whatever their disagreements, are of one mind in wanting that Duchy to disappear, so if France buts in they are likely to close ranks.

The Grand Armee had 680k men on the eve of the Russian invasion, almost 4 times more than the Austrians managed to mobilize at Wagram.

 

[Cornelis]

In 1811, the leading marshalls are Berthier, Davout and Masséna. All three had been given the title of prince, which marked the trust Napoléon had in them. The fourth prince, Bernadotte, is out of the picture, as is Murat. Berthier is member of the Regency Council (he is Vice-Constable of the Empire), so he would likely stay in Paris as one of the key members of the government. So the major command would be entrusted to Davout or Masséna, or maybe each one would have a separate command in a geographical area. It depends if the PoD is before may 1811 or after. As Masséna was called back to Paris in semi-disgrace in may, he would probably not be entrusted a major command. If before, he would remain in command in the Peninsula, hopefully with a newly established Ferdinand VII as ally. Davout is in Poland and would remain in command over the Central Europe armies.

 

[Mikestone8]

If France and Austria stay in alliance, I think the GDoW can survive.

Stay in alliance on what terms? The Austrians lost their share of the GDoW only a year or so before, so they're pretty certain to want it back.

Are we seriously to suppose that whoever tries to fill Napoleon's shoes is going to try and cling on to outposts at the opposite end of Europe?

The Grand Armee had 680k men on the eve of the Russian invasion, almost 4 times more than the Austrians managed to mobilize at Wagram.

Were they all French, or does this include contingents from satellite states?

 

[Magnum]

Were they all French, or does this include contingents from satellite states?

I included them as well. Also included allied Austrian contingents at Wagram as well.

ITTL, the Regency Council could probably mobilize most of the above save for the Prussians and Austrians. Even if they just had the French and nothing more, it would still be a force in excess of half a million men.

 

[Halcyon Dayz]

I'm pretty sure there were Dutchmen in the Grande Armée, but I guess they were counted as French.

 

[Alstein]

Stay in alliance on what terms? The Austrians lost their share of the GDoW only a year or so before, so they're pretty certain to want it back.

I suspect The French will try to compensate Austria with other territory back, probably in Italy- they will want a friendly client state in Eastern Europe. Maybe a secret treaty promising Brandenburg should they join another alliance (Prussia would not survive another French dismemberment) The French people might also have some pro-Polish sentiment, and the Poles would probably fight instead of just accept annexation and would be able to give a bloody nose.

95k Poles battle-hardened is the core of a decent army, especially against not-as high quality Austrians or Russians. Prussia 1 on 1 might get beat by GDoW in 1812.

 

[VictorLaszlo]

I suspect The French will try to compensate Austria with other territory back, probably in Italy- they will want a friendly client state in Eastern Europe. Maybe a secret treaty promising Brandenburg should they join another alliance (Prussia would not survive another French dismemberment) ...

More likely Silesia which had been Austrian until the 1740's and was furthermore catholic while Brandenburg had not only never been part of the Habsburg realms but was staunchly protestant on top of that.

 

[longsword14]

1809 was a bad campaign especially in the beginning because Napoleon was trying to influence events from Paris giving orders to Berthier who had not commanded troops. Davout and later Massena fought back well to restore balance, but it was going to be bloody anyway.
Massena might just be brought back in case of war to hold a front. Like always it is the diplomacy that matters for long term success. Austria could be given concessions enough, combined with the existing strength of France in Germany to not repeat 1809.
Most likely Russia+Austria go to war anyway smelling weakness.

 

[thezerech]

I think the Austrians would certainly want Silesia over anything else not only for it's wealth but also for historical reasons. I wouldn't be surprised if this new regency forges peace with the remaining coalition members, to give them time to stabilize the Empire. The Grande Armee at this point is still strong enough to maintain French power in Europe especially if they have Austria on their side, which is Napoleon I is dead but Napoleon II is in power they most likely will. I imagine the Prussians and the British would bide their time while the Empire stabilizes. Russia might not want to accept an independent GDoW, so they might fight it out similar to OTL with British support. I imagine with a number of regents in charge the Marshalls will take a more cautious approach to the invasion of Russia. The French then would not overextend as Napoleon did.

 

[Mikestone8]

I imagine with a number of regents in charge the Marshalls will take a more cautious approach to the invasion of Russia. The French then would not overextend as Napoleon did.

Would there be an invasion of Russia?

After all it would be a no win situation for the Government. Defeat would most likely mean their fall, while a victory would put whichever Marshal won it in a position to come back and do an "18 Brumaire" against them whenever they hit a bout of unpopularity. They have nothing to gain by invading Russia or indeed anywhere else, since either defeat or victory would imperil their position.

 

[longsword14]

Would there be an invasion of Russia?

After all it would be a no win situation for the Government. Defeat would most likely mean their fall, while a victory would put whichever Marshal won it in a position to come back and do an "18 Brumaire" against them whenever they hit a bout of unpopularity. They have nothing to gain by invading Russia or indeed anywhere else, since either defeat or victory would imperil their position.

Provided the regency council does not go loony, "18 Bruimare" is not happening again. No marshal was as scheming as Napoleon was before being raised to consul and no single general had his fingers in any political pie without Napoleon's know how. They could lose command if the results are not satisfactory but a coup against a marshal is not happening, because other than a few seniors none will have the power to get into control.

 

[thezerech]

Would there be an invasion of Russia?

After all it would be a no win situation for the Government. Defeat would most likely mean their fall, while a victory would put whichever Marshal won it in a position to come back and do an "18 Brumaire" against them whenever they hit a bout of unpopularity. They have nothing to gain by invading Russia or indeed anywhere else, since either defeat or victory would imperil their position.

If the Russians decide not to accept the GDoW, the French won't have a choice but to fight, unless they want to show their continental allies that the new government won't protect them. Which should result in many French allies deserting Napoleon II's nascent regency council. Assuming it is the Marshals in charge they might, depending on which marshals are in power use a Russo-Polish war as an opportunity. To gain personal power or glory. It's been a while since I've read Napoleon's wars but IIRC the GDoW was missing a Grand Duke at this point. If I were a Marshal I might like a shot at winning the love of the Polish people, and pulling a Bernadotte to become Grand Duke, or even King.

 

[Alstein]

In 1811, the leading marshalls are Berthier, Davout and Masséna. All three had been given the title of prince, which marked the trust Napoléon had in them. The fourth prince, Bernadotte, is out of the picture, as is Murat. Berthier is member of the Regency Council (he is Vice-Constable of the Empire), so he would likely stay in Paris as one of the key members of the government. So the major command would be entrusted to Davout or Masséna, or maybe each one would have a separate command in a geographical area. It depends if the PoD is before may 1811 or after. As Masséna was called back to Paris in semi-disgrace in may, he would probably not be entrusted a major command. If before, he would remain in command in the Peninsula, hopefully with a newly established Ferdinand VII as ally. Davout is in Poland and would remain in command over the Central Europe armies.

Berthier was indespensible, maybe even moreso than Davout for his logistical skills- he'd be out on campaign. Berthier's death in 1815 was the biggest blow Nappy had marshalwise- especially since it forced Davout into Berthier's role.

I know Nappy had planned Poniatowski to be King of Poland if Russia had sued for peace. Poniatowski would be the Marshal to do that- and would have been more than capable of it given his track record.

Also, I think some german states would stay on Nappy's side- Saxony definitely would. This war would be about as hard as the 1813 campaign overall if it was Austria+Prussia+Russia vs France+GDoW+some German states.

 

[Cornelis]

Broadly speaking, there were three groups in power during Napoléon's reign, all under the stern authority of the emperor : the imperial family, the army and the civil servants. In the event of an unexpected regency, these three groups need to stick together in order to keep control. My proposition is the master schemers of the time, Talleyrand and Fouché, manage to make a deal with the more moderate members of the other groups, Eugène for the imperial family and Berthier for the army, in order to keep Napoléon's brothers out, to secure peace with Ferdinand VII and Austria and to continue to subdue Portugal and Prussia. Even if some marshalls are not so happy about the new order of things, they are thousands of miles away or without a command in Paris, under the watch of Fouché's police. As usual with Talleyand, he would not change the existing institutions, but thwarted them in the shape he wants, with the help of some Senate "consultations". For instance, never oust officially the brothers out of the council but explaining in a very legal way what foreign sovereigns or former ones cannot be members of french decision making institutions, so they stay but without a say and even without being kept informed of the council's reunions.

Imperial court, Paris, August 1st 1811

His Imperial and Royal Majesty Napoléon II, Emperor of the French and King of Italy

Regent of the Empire : His Imperial Highness the Prince Eugène

Guard of His I&R Majesty : Her I&R Majesty Marie-Louise

Council of Regency

• President : His Imperial Highness the Regent
• Vice-President : His Serene Highness the Prince of Benevent, Grand Elector of the Empire (Talleyrand)
• Vice-President : His Serene Highness the Prince of Wagram and Neuchatel, Constable of the Empire (Berthier)
• His Excellency the Duke of Parma, Arch-chancellor of the Empire (Cambacèrès)
• His Excellency the Duke of Plaisance, Arch-treasurer of the Empire (Lebrun)
• His Imperial Highness and Eminence the Cardinal Prince Joseph Fesch, Grand Almoner of the Empire
• Members without deliberative voice
  • His Majesty the King Joseph Napoléon
  • His Majesty the King Louis Napoléon
  • His Majesty the King of Naples (Murat)
  • His Serene Highness the Prince Borghese
  • Her Imperial Highness the Grand-duchess of Tuscany

Council of ministers

• Minister of Police : His Excellency the Duke of Otrante (Fouché)
• Minister of Foreign Relations : His Excellency the Count of Montrond (a Talleyrand creature)
• Minister of War : His Excellency the Duke of Feltre
• Minister of Finances : His Excellency the Duke of Gaete
• Minister of Treasury : His Excellency the Count Mollien
• Minister of Navy : His Excellency the Count Decres
• Minister of War Administration : His Excellency the Count Lacuée de Cessac
• Home Minister : His Excellency the Count of Montalivet
• Minister of Cults : His Excellency the Count Bigot de Préameneu

Commander-in-chief of the Army of Germany : His Excellency the Prince of Eckmulh (Davout)
Commander-in-chief of the Army of Portugal : His Excellency the Prince of Essling (Masséna)
Commander-in-chief of the Army of Italy : His Excellency the Duke of Dalmatie (Soult)
Personal Representative to the King of Spain and commander of the Allied contingent of the Spanish Army : His Excellency the Duke of Raguse (Marmont)
Personal Representative to the Grand Pensioneer of the Batavian Republic and commander of the Allied contingent of the Batavian Army : His Excellency the Duke of Reggio (Oudinot)
Inspector General of the Gendarmerie : His Excellency the Duke of Conegliano (Moncey)
Inspector General of the Home Army : His Excellency the Duke of Elchingen (Ney)
Colonel General of the Imperial Guard Cavalry : His Excellency the Duke of Istrie (Bessières)
Colonel General of the Imperial Guard Artillery : His Excellency the Duke of Trévise

 

[Cornelis]

Berthier was indespensible, maybe even moreso than Davout for his logistical skills- he'd be out on campaign. Berthier's death in 1815 was the biggest blow Nappy had marshalwise- especially since it forced Davout into Berthier's role.

I know Nappy had planned Poniatowski to be King of Poland if Russia had sued for peace. Poniatowski would be the Marshal to do that- and would have been more than capable of it given his track record.

Also, I think some german states would stay on Nappy's side- Saxony definitely would. This war would be about as hard as the 1813 campaign overall if it was Austria+Prussia+Russia vs France+GDoW+some German states.

1815 OTL, Davout was put into Clarke's position (Minister of War), not Berthier's (Major General or Chief of Staff). But, sure Berthier is more useful in a administrative/logistical position. ITTL, I think his place is on the regency council, in order to have at least one marshall, one of reputation, in its number. While nominally he is not Minister of War, he could be a kind of "super-minister", bypassing Clarke. If he is on the field, I do not see him being major General of another Marshall, be it Davout or even less Masséna, he is too senior and proud for that. And everybody knew he was not so good as a commander-in-chief, so the Paris position is a win-win.

 

[Mikestone8]

If the Russians decide not to accept the GDoW, the French won't have a choice but to fight, unless they want to show their continental allies that the new government won't protect them. Which should result in many French allies deserting Napoleon II's nascent regency council.

OTOH, to insist on upholding it is a 100% guarantee that the Seventh Coalition will be up and running as soon as there seems to be an opportunity. No way are the partitioning powers going to tolerate the GDoW one minute longer than fear of Napoleon compels them to. OTOH, conceding it to Russia will mollify the Tsar and with any luck get him into a quarrel with Prussia and Austria, esp if he's also annoying Austria by pushing up to or across the Danube..

 

[Cornelis]

OTOH, to insist on upholding it is a 100% guarantee that the Seventh Coalition will be up and running as soon as there seems to be an opportunity. No way are the partitioning powers going to tolerate the GDoW one minute longer than fear of Napoleon compels them to. OTOH, conceding it to Russia will mollify the Tsar and with any luck get him into a quarrel with Prussia and Austria, esp if he's also annoying Austria by pushing up to or across the Danube..

If Russia wants to invade the DoW, the answer will be "let them come". When can Russia attack ? How can Prussia help them ? With a french government eager to disengage in Spain by supporting Ferdinand VII and to enhance the relations with Austria, I do not see the Russians steamrolling Poland and crushing Davout so easily.

 

[Alstein]

1815 OTL, Davout was put into Clarke's position (Minister of War), not Berthier's (Major General or Chief of Staff). But, sure Berthier is more useful in a administrative/logistical position. ITTL, I think his place is on the regency council, in order to have at least one marshall, one of reputation, in its number. While nominally he is not Minister of War, he could be a kind of "super-minister", bypassing Clarke. If he is on the field, I do not see him being major General of another Marshall, be it Davout or even less Masséna, he is too senior and proud for that. And everybody knew he was not so good as a commander-in-chief, so the Paris position is a win-win.

I don't think he would have issue subordinating himself to Davout. He knew he wasn't a great battlefield Marshal, and that was his best role. Napoleon sorely missed Berthier in the Waterloo campaign, which is why I think it would be a mistake to keep him in Paris. If you needed a marshal of good reputation in Paris- you had several choices- Kellermann being the best choice here.

I believe it was Soult who had Berthier's role during Waterloo, my guess is he would have gotten the nod here, and Suchet might have taken the lead in Spain (the Spanish ulcer will be more of a thing in this scenario too)
Suchet was a good commander, but no Wellington. Also much depends on how much time France has before a new war- the less time the more likely marshals stay where they are at.


Also, the GDoW, why not concede it to Austria instead of Russia if you absolutely had to?

Also, wasn't Massena disgraced by 1811? You can always be rehabilitated, but he saw no action after 1809.

 

[longsword14]

@Alstein
Yes, it was Soult instead of Berthier. Retracting from Spain seems a decent idea, managing the withdrawal would be on the diplomats for a face saving measure. Kellermann the Elder could perhaps step in the regency council?