A True October Surprise: The Added Surprises

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lord caedus

Gonzo said:
What are the largest parties in Germany outside of the Bundestag?
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The Pirate Party and National Democratic Party are the only parties outside of the five in the Bundestag to consistently get over 1% of the vote while the Republican Alternative (ATL splinter of The Republicans that embraces more explicitly nationalist themes) did surprisingly well in state elections in the past few years, although federally they're unlikely to hit 5% anytime soon if current trends hold.
 
Chilean presidential election, 1974
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    • lord caedus

    The 1974 Chilean presidential election was the end of the greatest crisis Chilean democracy faced in the latter half of the twentieth century. Salvador Allende, who had been elected in the divisive 1970 contest, had begun an ambitious program to put Chile on the road to socialism, including land redistribution and the nationalization of the country's copper mines and health-care system. Despite Allende's wishes to remain on good terms with the Humphrey Administration, Washington and other western powers were alarmed by these moves and reduced economic aid to Chile. Allende's programs were also divisive domestically and well-off Chileans and industries that feared becoming nationalized began to loudly proclaim their willingness to strike in opposition to Allende's program. After the country's Supreme Court lambasted Allende's administration for failing to uphold Chilean laws that the administration disagreed with, or that limited their implementation of certain policies, the center-right dominated National Congress began impeachment proceedings after a sweeping victory for the Confederation of Democracy (CODE: Confederación de la Democracia) center-right alliance in the 1973 parliamentary elections.

    Allende refused to go without a fight and publicly called on his backers to oppose what he called an "illegitimate attempt to overthrow the elected government" and the center-right was unable to muster the two-thirds majority needed to oust Allende as 1973 turned into 1974. After a series of by-election victories that were won by the Christian Democrats (the largest party in CODE), the Popular Unity (Unidad Popular) alliance reacted to the visible shift in popular attitudes by beginning, little by little, to move away from Allende. Allende, increasingly spread thin by the fighting to keep his coalition intact as well as trying to push through the rest of his program within the final two years of his elected term, alienated his radical allies by refusing to consider their appointments to vacant cabinet posts or input. In response, several hard-line Socialist Party members (as well as a few members from the Radical Party) telegraphed to CODE their plans to leave the country for simultaneous vacations, giving the center-right two-thirds of the vote with the absences. The center-right wasted no time and impeached Allende within days of the last hardliner leaving the country. A small stand-off ensued as Allende briefly refused to leave the Presidential Palace, but eventually acceded to the inevitable and handed the presidential sash to his Minister of the Interior Carlos Briones, who became acting president under Chile's constitution.

    Briones, per his constitutional duty, declared new elections to be held two months after Allende's removal and begun campaigning immediately. Unlike the 1970 election that had seen Allende come on top with a divided center-right vote, CODE unanimously backed Senate President Patricio Aylwin of the Christian Democrats for the presidency. Popular Unity and Briones castigated the removal of Allende as a “national shame” and promised to continue Allende's work. Aylwin, in contrast, campaigned on restoring constitutional governance and in "healing the country's wounds".

    chile1974.png


    Aylwin won by a convincing margin and begun to heal the wounds of the Allende administration in ways that would enrage rich supporters who believed that removing Allende would reset the clock to before the Socialist victory in 1970. Aylwin notably did little to Allende's social programs, including the nationalization of copper mining and the country's education system, although he dutifully refused to fight those the Supreme Court had ruled unconstitutional. The marked difference in Chilean politics between his 1974 inaugural and the 1980 election of his successor, Andrés Zaldívar, has been credited almost universally to Aylwin's steady hand at governing and calming influence on the national political scene, something unthinkable for Socialists in 1973-4 who saw him as an architect of Allende's impeachment.

    Briones' loss in the election marked the beginning of a low point for the Socialist Party in Chile, as Zaldívar's actions against Argentina in the Falklands War ensured a landslide victory for his successor, Edmundo Pérez Yoma in the 1986 election. Indeed, the center-right would not lose the presidency until Ricardo Lagos' victory in the 1998 contest, the first after the end of the Cold War. Aylwin's death in 2016 marked a nation-wide period of mourning for the man who, in the words of outgoing president Soledad Alvear "prevented a civil war", although Socialist candidate (and soon-to-be-president) Osvaldo Andrade was more circumspect in his praise for Aylwin, pointing to the role Allende had played after his removal in preventing his supporters from attempting violent revolution.
     
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    • Fourth Republic of South Korea
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    • lord caedus

    The Fourth Republic of South Korea was the government of the Republic of Korea for over two decades in the final years of the Cold War. Ushered in by dictatorial president Park Chung-hee, the Fourth Republic was governed by the so-called Yushin ("rejuvenation") Constitution that removed almost all limits on Park's power, including allowing the previous constitution's limits on the amount of times he could run for re-election and allowing him to appoint one-third of the National Assembly. Park's economic vision for the country would result in the "Miracle on the Han River", transforming Korea from a poor, backwards country in the 1960s to an economic powerhouse by the time he died by investing heavily in industry and technology. However, Park's rule became increasingly tenuous as it went on, with South Koreans increasingly tired of the state of nationwide martial law (which Park had declared in 1972 at the end of the Third Republic), and lack of democracy and civil rights.

    Park faced several assassination attempts (some tied to the North Korean regime) and serious protests throughout his long presidency, and the frequency of the latter increasing as more and more Koreans with no memories of the Korean War came of age. Park also faced increasing scrutiny from his main allies in Washington, especially after Park dragged his feet ending the country's nuclear program following the Kahuta incident. By the time of his last re-election in 1990, Park had few defenders left in Washington, and the Huddleston administration had begun to increasingly lean on Park to begin democratization. The author of the Yushin Constitution, however, refused. Park's rationale was that, with North Korean dictator Kim Il-sung's advancing age, the country needed a strong leadership in case Kim's son and heir apparent, Kim Jong-il, felt he needed to invade South Korea to prove his legitimacy. However, the senior Kim would in fact outlive Park by a matter of months. Park died in February 1994 at the age of 76. Prime Minister Roh Tae-woo became acting president, and repealed the station of martial law. Roh also used his power to dissolve the National Assembly for elections concurrent with the electoral college that would confirm him as president and promised to use his power to appoint a third of that body in proportion to the votes won at the new election.

    With a National Assembly and president committed to democratization, the Yushin Constitution's days were numbered. As South Koreans cautiously watched Kim Jong-il ascend to the leadership of North Korea following his father's death in July, a new democratic constitution was promulgated, ushering in the Fifth Republic.

    rok4th.png
     
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    • Walter Mondale
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    • lord caedus

    The protegee of Hubert Humphrey (and his replacement as senator following Humphrey's election as vice president), Walter Mondale was a faithful advocate for his policies in the Senate during Humphrey's presidency as well as during the brief Muskie administration. An unabashed liberal, Mondale's first presidential bid in 1980 was a disaster: a fundamental misunderstanding of the post-1968 primary system led him to write off the states of the former Confederacy and allowed South Dakota Senator George McGovern and others to take the votes and delegates of black Democrats who otherwise would have voted for "Fritz". A chastened Mondale soon fell behind and withdrew in support of McGovern, who went on to lose an Electoral College landslide to President Bush. With Minnesota law preventing him from running for both the presidency and his Senate seat, Mondale opted to retire from the Senate in 1984 with his eye on the White House.

    He quickly emerged as one of the front-runners, alongside Ohio Senator John Glenn and the two had a long, dragged-out primary season that ended with Glenn finally peeling ahead in April. Mondale opted to withdraw, believing that Glenn would reward him stopping the brutal primaries early with the vice-presidential spot. But Glenn's personal dislike of Mondale and need to shore up support among conservative Democrats resulted in the former astronaut choosing their colleague Lloyd Bentsen of Texas instead. A furious Mondale refused to campaign for Glenn until being persuaded to in October, well after the electorate had gained the impression of the Democrats as a divided party and with it, doubts about Glenn's ability to smoothly handle the affairs of state.

    Although out of office, Mondale emerged as the presumptive front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 1988 after Glenn's loss. Expecting his strongest challenger to either be New York Governor Mario Cuomo, Delaware Senator Joe Biden or Maine Governor George Mitchell, Mondale was shocked like the rest of the political establishment by the victory of dark horse Kentucky Senator Walter D. Huddleston in the Iowa caucus. Soon, with Mitchell dropping out after losing in an upset in New Hampshire and Biden hospitalized after suffering an aneurysm before Super Tuesday, Huddleston emerged as the front-runner while Cuomo and Mondale fought to be the candidates of the party liberals. By the time Cuomo was forced out and Mondale became the anti-Huddleston candidate, the Kentuckian had already won an insurmountable lead in delegates.

    Learning from Glenn's mistake, Huddleston quietly promised Mondale the Secretary of State position if he campaigned for the Democratic ticket in 1988, an offer Mondale gratefully accepted. He became Secretary of State at a momentous time in world history, with the Warsaw Pact disintegrating and Eastern Europe (save the Soviet Union) abandoning communism and the death of Viktor Grishin in 1992 paving the way for an end to the Cold War. Mondale was instrumental in negotiating the Huddleston-Noriega Treaty that returned the Panama Canal Zone to Panama and, despite Huddleston's offer to retain him in his second term, opted to retire as as result of disagreement with the president's failed Secure Borders Act and exhaustion with the grueling workload.

    In retirement, Mondale worked both as a speaker and professor at the University of Minnesota in addition to remaining active in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (the state version of the Democratic Party).

    mondale.png
     
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    • Brazilian presidential election, 2014
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    • lord caedus

    The 2014 Brazilian presidential election was held in the shadow of the scandals engulfing President Antonio Palocci, who had been accused of several allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Palocci had wisely decided not to seek re-election instead of running and almost surely losing. Palocci's Brazilian Labour Party (PTB- Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro) opted to run Governor Fernando Pimentel of Minas Gerais in an attempt to make a clean break with the Palocci administration. The Christian Social Democratic Party (PSDC- Partido Social Democrata Cristão), the center-right alternative to the PTB, nominated Senator José Serra of São Paulo, who emerged after a vicious backroom struggle between PSDC factional leaders over their nominee.

    As expected, Serra won a plurality of the vote in the first round, with the left-wing divided between Pimentel and perennial left-wing candidate Chico Mendes, who won nearly 20% of the popular vote, mostly from disenchanted Brazilians tired of the corruption that marred Brazil's economic success since the end of military rule in the 1980s. Pimentel's stellar record as governor, combined with being much closer to Mendes on most issues, resulted in most support naturally flowing to him in the second round. However, Serra and the PSDC did well in tying Pimentel to Palocci, proclaiming that if he were elected president, with a National Congress that would "begin to take corruption seriously", he would clean up the presidency.

    brazil2014.png


    Despite his powerful appeal to Mendes supporters, Serra narrowly failed to win the runoff, helped in part by Pimentel's slick advertising campaign that appealed to both middle-class Brazilians and low-income Brazilians who had benefited from policies introduced by the two previous PTB presidents, Palocci and his immediate predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Elections for the National Congress, however, returned a majority for the PSDC and other parties unfriendly to the incoming administration and corruption investigations that had been set up for the Palocci administration were re-tooled to look into allegations of corruption in the Pimentel administration. Despite (valid) protests by Pimentel that the members of the National Congress who were spearheading the charge against him were also under investigation for corruption, investigators seem to recently have found pay dirt over issues of payments to businessmen during Pimentel's tenure as governor of Minas Gerais and it seems certain that the hostile National Congress will make a motion to impeach Pimentel ahead of the 2018 elections.
     
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    • Nofix

    If you don't mind me asking: Do you have a separate word doc (or whatever you're using) for the story portions of ATOS (and this sequel) and for general notes?
     

    lord caedus

    Nofix said:
    If you don't mind me asking: Do you have a separate word doc (or whatever you're using) for the story portions of ATOS (and this sequel) and for general notes?
    Click to expand...

    I have TAS on a LibreOffice doc, although sometimes the posted portion is edited from my notes (mostly for typos and phrasing issues that I notice after copy+pasting).

    I don't have a separate doc for ATOS itself or any general notes, though, which I probably should have. It usually just takes a quick look-through at the ATOS thread to jog my memory about what I've established when I was writing up and creating the boxes for TAS.
     
    Humphrey Cabinet
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    • lord caedus

    The Humphrey Cabinet was notable in many ways. First, there was the fact that Humphrey retained quite a few members of the Johnson cabinet. Most of the Johnson holdovers, including Interior Secretary Stewart Udall and Agriculture Secretary Orville Freeman (both of whom were originally appointed by President Kennedy) stayed at their positions, while some, including Secretary of State Clark Clifford, were shuffled from their posts that they had been appointed to under Johnson. Second, there was the beginning of a permanent shift in the demographics of presidential cabinet selection. Humphrey would be the first president whose cabinet contained more than one racial minority, selecting former Ambassador to Luxembourg Patricia Roberts Harris to the post of Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare (making her the first female African-American secretary as well as only the third woman named to the Cabinet) and Cleveland Mayor Carl Stokes to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Humphrey's selection of Jean Westwood as his third Secretary of Commerce would also make his the first cabinet with more than one woman serving as a cabinet secretary.

    Former Peace Corps director and ambassador Sargent Shriver also became the first Secretary of the Department of Consumer Protection in 1973, the first of three new cabinet departments created in the 1970s (although that decade would also see the most recent demotion from cabinet rank—the office of Postmaster General—during the Bush administration). Finally, Humphrey's promotion of Defense Secretary Cyrus Vance to replace Clifford in his second term was one of the most recent instances of cabinet secretaries being "reshuffled" from within the cabinet itself, as subsequent presidents for the most part have only "reshuffled" cabinet-level appointees into the cabinet itself instead of moving secretaries around to lead different departments, as is the norm in parliamentary systems.

    The Humphrey Cabinet was also the first in American history to seriously consider invoking the 25th Amendment, with members deliberating among themselves during the final days of President Humphrey's life as the president's health deteriorated rapidly. It was only Vice President Muskie's reticence and that Humphrey remained lucid, if extremely weak, for most of the period, that prevented enough cabinet secretaries to sign on to declare Humphrey unable to fulfill his presidential duties. For the most part, the membership of the Muskie Cabinet was the same as the membership of the final Humphrey cabinet, although Muskie would get to replace Westwood (with Larry O’Brien), Carl Stokes (with J. Palmer Gaillard, Jr.), and Raymond Shafer (with Daniel Friedman).

    humphreycabinet.png
     
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    • TPL99

    lord caedus said:
    The 2014 Brazilian presidential election was held in the shadow of the scandals engulfing President Antonio Palocci, who had been accused of several allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Palocci had wisely decided not to seek re-election instead of running and almost surely losing. Palocci's Brazilian Labour Party (PTB- Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro) opted to run Governor Fernando Pimentel of Minas Gerais in an attempt to make a clean break with the Palocci administration. The Christian Social Democratic Party (PSDC- Partido Social Democrata Cristão), the center-right alternative to the PTB, nominated Senator José Serra of São Paulo, who emerged after a vicious backroom struggle between PSDC factional leaders over their nominee.

    As expected, Serra won a plurality of the vote in the first round, with the left-wing divided between Pimentel and perennial left-wing candidate Chico Mendes, who won nearly 20% of the popular vote, mostly from disenchanted Brazilians tired of the corruption that marred Brazil's economic success since the end of military rule in the 1980s. Pimentel's stellar record as governor, combined with being much closer to Mendes on most issues, resulted in most support naturally flowing to him in the second round. However, Serra and the PSDC did well in tying Pimentel to Palocci, proclaiming that if he were elected president, with a National Congress that would "begin to take corruption seriously", he would clean up the presidency.

    Despite his powerful appeal to Mendes supporters, Serra narrowly failed to win the runoff, helped in part by Pimentel's slick advertising campaign that appealed to both middle-class Brazilians and low-income Brazilians who had benefited from policies introduced by the two previous PTB presidents, Palocci and his immediate predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Elections for the National Congress, however, returned a majority for the PSDC and other parties unfriendly to the incoming administration and corruption investigations that had been set up for the Palocci administration were re-tooled to look into allegations of corruption in the Pimentel administration. Despite (valid) protests by Pimentel that the members of the National Congress who were spearheading the charge against him were also under investigation for corruption, investigators seem to recently have found pay dirt over issues of payments to businessmen during Pimentel's tenure as governor of Minas Gerais and it seems certain that the hostile National Congress will make a motion to impeach Pimentel ahead of the 2018 elections.
    Click to expand...

    Good, but I think some things are interesting like Chico Mendes don't be killed in 1988 and another things are so strange likely a strong PSDC (a perennial party in OTL and why so poweful?) and PTB surviving (could be a good point with Leonel Brizola taking back the party from Ivette Vargas and unificates good part of left-wing politicians in Brazil). Where's PMDB, by the way (endorsing PTB but in wait to take presidency after Pimentel's impeachment)?
     

    lord caedus

    TPL99 said:
    Good, but I think some things are interesting like Chico Mendes don't be killed in 1988 and another things are so strange likely a strong PSDC (a perennial party in OTL and why so poweful?) and PTB surviving (could be a good point with Leonel Brizola taking back the party from Ivette Vargas and unificates good part of left-wing politicians in Brazil). Where's PMDB, by the way (endorsing PTB but in wait to take presidency after Pimentel's impeachment)?
    Click to expand...

    1. TTL's PSDC is not the same as the OTL party, which was butterflied away (since it formed in the 1990s IOTL). They just happen to have the same name.

    2. That's pretty much what happened. This PTB is essentially a revival of the pre-coup PTB that managed to grab enough left-wing politicians after the restoration of democracy to emerge as the center-left party in Brazilian politics.

    3. The PMDB was one of the parties that merged to form the PSDC.

    One thing that might explain the strangeness is that Brazil's political system ITTL is much friendlier to the formation of larger, stronger parties than OTL, with higher thresholds for coalitions (compared to individual parties) to enter the National Congress, a two-round systems for the Senate and a requirement that parties win at least 2% of the total national vote before they can get seats in the National Congress.
     
    Indian general election, 2016
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    • lord caedus

    The results of the 2016 Indian election was the end product of the weakening of the dominant Indian National Congress (INC), which has dominated the country's politics since independence in 1947. The government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had done little to persuade voters to support the party or other members of the United India Alliance (UIA). Despite India's economic growth and large strides to alleviate the desperate poverty faced in some states, the Singh government became increasingly tied to institutional corruption with feckless responses to large numbers of MPs being investigated or convicted of crimes. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its National Movement for Progress (NMP), while also (but not to the extent of the INC) being tarred with the brush of scandal, stood to gain from the inability of the INC to police itself.

    Singh's government had fallen to a minority after UIA partners, like the All-Indian Trinamool Congress (AITC) left or outside support evaporated. The BJP, however, were unable to convince enough of the Workers' Front (WF), the smallest electoral alliance in the Lok Sabha, to support a no-confidence vote by the time Singh suffered a massive heart attack in June 2015. While surviving, Singh was left weak and in no condition to continue to lead the country. The INC selected Robert Vadra, the husband of Priyanka Gandhi (daughter of former PM Rajiv Gandhi and granddaughter of Indira Gandhi), to lead the party, a move greeted with derision as further proof of the Gandhi-Nehru family's control over the party.

    Vadra and the INC partially reversed their slow electoral decline as a result of sympathy for the party following Singh's resignation and excitement about the new, young (Vadra was only 46 upon assuming office) prime minister. However, the stench of scandal remained in New Delhi and the All-India Party (AIP) under anti-corruption crusader Arvind Kejriwal began to cause concern among the main two electoral alliances that it could persuade other minor parties to support it as it began to spread nationally.

    By the time of the election, polls indicated that India would return an even smaller UIA minority and possibility of prolonged negotiations to get one group to command the confidence of 272 members of the Lok Sabha.

    india2016.png


    The shocking result, a UIA majority, stunned the political landscape. Post-election analysis revealed that the primary beneficiary of the AIP was, paradoxically, the UIA, as the "throw the bums out" vote that would have went to the BJP or regional parties was instead divided just enough to allow the INC to win many seats by extremely thin margins. The disintegration of the WF over the life of the previous parliament similarly played a large role in keeping the INC in power. However, with unaffiliated regional parties like the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK)—now the third-largest group in parliament as a result of nearly sweeping the state of Tamil Nadu—and AITC becoming larger players on the national stage, it is up to Vadra and BJP leader Sushma Swaraj to see if they can be integrated into the two main camps or if 2016 will be the last general election in the world's largest democracy to return a majority government.
     
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