What if the War began in 1944? Royal Navy in particular and RAF overall

Thomas1195

Banned
The King George V class indeed did give value for the investment, although the latest pair did never engage enemy ships at all. As such the first trio (HMS King George V, Prince of Wales and Duke of York) did give the Royal Navy value for the investmenet, although it still is a very sad thing HMS Prince of Wales was send to the Far East in a hopeless mission. The USN Battleships were a waist of resources mostly, as only the North Carolina's were deployed in time for warservice, where the South Dakota's and iowa's were merely used as cruisers, escorting carriers, but with much larger crews and costs, as well as gunnery support on the beaches, whcih was a waist as well, since even small landingcraft addapted for this role could perform in that sort of missions. That is eight big usless humpsof steel waisted, while steel was also on demand for armored vehicles, hopefull of more durable types compared to the vast numbers of M-4 Sherman tanks. (The USA did suffer from a shortage of steel in mid war, due to the enormeous demand for the resource)

Overall the Royal Navy needed the King George V Class in the beginning of the war, simply as there were no alternatives at the time in the form of Naval airpower on aircraft carriers, as the British lacked sufficient numbers of both carriers and aircraft. The USN on the other hand did not need the new battleships, as it had more than enough fightingpotential in its growing number of aircraft carriers, besides the war in the Pacific was an airwar mostly.
But in this 1944 scenario, the KGV would have been less valuable than OTL because by then, new better BBs and CVs would have been available (Lion at least). KGV has great value in 1939 case, but in 1944 its value would be questionable.

As for USN ships, their escort role was still essential, and Iowa served for around 5 decades after the war.

Next, I read in another forum, there was one statement that British ships overall had lower mechanical reliability and required greater maintenance cost than their peers because they were built with a outdated craft based system, not with modern methods. Was that true?

Finally, the Brits were at serious disvadvantage against it enemies because it tried to comply with LNT while most other nations did not.
 
But in this 1944 scenario, the KGV would have been less valuable than OTL because by then, new better BBs and CVs would have been available (Lion at least). KGV has great value in 1939 case, but in 1944 its value would be questionable.

As for USN ships, their escort role was still essential, and Iowa served for around 5 decades after the war.

Next, I read in another forum, there was one statement that British ships overall had lower mechanical reliability and required greater maintenance cost than their peers because they were built with a outdated craft based system, not with modern methods. Was that true?

Finally, the Brits were at serious disvadvantage against it enemies because it tried to comply with LNT while most other nations did not.

For any 1944 scenario the role of the OTL stype King George V class was still a good one, especailly as it was a more general purpose design compared to other contemporary battleships, that were of more questionable value, including the often overrate USS Iowa, which was technically nothing more than a larger cruiser, with bigger guns and much larger crew, performing in roles done as good as a normal sized cruiser, but for a higher cost. The South Dakota class was already obsolete before even build, being too cramped and too inflexible to adjust its capabilities, so a waist of resources in most other nations, but the USA could permit such a waist, having more Industrial capabilties to compensate failed weaponsystems with other back-up ones.

As for the succeeding Lion type battleship, it depends on which variant is being considered, as there are quite a few different Lion class battleships, with one almost simmilar to an upgunned King George V on the lower side, to a much larger vessel of a 1944 design. Besides that, the newer Naval aircraft would come around, showing more potential, most likely resulting in the Royal Navy to adjust its tactical uses to include the high performing aircraft as main tool of attack, with big gunned battleships limmited to a more secodnary use, especially in a Pacific War scenario, which had to cover vast distances. Sice of guns is not improtant in this case, flexibilitty is on the other hand required.

More over, only limmited thinking brings gun versus gun in mind. Naval batltes are not just guns opposed to otehr guns, as other weaponsystems are normally included. Small destroyers, when handled well could face larger warships with ease, as WW2 did show on multiple occasions, while battleships were not getting any change to fire at another battleship. The Royal Navy was a cruiser navy in the first place, with training and fighting in a cruiser fashion, meaning attack at all times, even when against heavy odds. Smaller forces were seen as expendable iff necessary, so cruisers and destroyers will likely charge at any opposing threat, before the own battleships will get into range to slug it out. British tempted to have destroyers and cruisers act as torpedo delivery units, just for that purpose, where the USN removed most of the torpedoes on its cruisers, limmiting their fighting capabilities as a result.

As to technical issues, the Royal Navy had excelent technical records in general, but had to fight a conflict twice as long as either USN, or IJN, meaning wear and tear were bigger issues here. Most of the technical problems were either related to age of the warships in general, especially the older not fully refitted capital ships and the overengineered parts in the newest warships, lacking time to overcome their teethingproblems, due to political reasons mainly. The Royal Navy was not alone in this, as all navies had simmilar experiences, including the IJN, USN and Kriegsmarine. (USN 1939 program cruisers for instance had relatively weak hulls outside the citadel, which resulted in the breaking of a complete bowsection of USS Pittsburgh in 1945. Also noted was the lack of spare bouyancy on many USN designs, resulting in topheaviness and lack of internal space for crew and equipment. IJN warships designed by Hiraga and Fujimoto equally were lightly constructed innitially, but had their hulls strengthened before WW2 started, making them seriously overweight, but durable.)
 
One question is that how American and Japanese could mount 16 inch guns (or more) without any notable errors since 1920? :)) Especially American guns were excellent.

The problem for NelRod could bethat their guns and turrets were originally designed for G3 and N3, and after the Treaty they have to redesign N3 to reduce weight while using 16'' guns from G3.

Oh I forgot, Iowa and Montana, the best BB classes in ww2

Best on paper, sure. But best in terms of actual service delivered? Montana is clearly out and honestly the Iowas would have given better service had they been available sooner. By the time they were available their main role was a very large, very expensive anti-aircraft cruiser. ;)

Also, if we're talking about errors in mounting 16" guns, I think the one with the Iowas' turrets stands out. Because of miscommunication, the original turrets designed for the Iowas were too large to actually fit on the ship, while any turret that would fit the ship could not mount the guns already sitting in storage waiting for the ships to be built. Fortunately, US industrial capacity was so great that new turrets and guns were designed and built in time and didn't delay Iowa at all.

http://warships1discussionboards.yu...t-advantage-of-quadruple-turrets#reply-276284

In the US, the guns and mountings could be manufactured rapidly, so they could be ordered or even changed after the ships were started. This not only let them up-gun the North Carolinas without any delays, but it seriously saved their bacon on the Iowa class screw up. Somewhat late in the design phase it was discovered that BuOrd, due to a commical miscommunication with the Bureau of Construction and Repair, had accidental designed a turret that was so large it could not actually fit on the ship. Even worse, any turret that WOULD fit the ship could not mount the 16/50 Mark 2 guns already sitting in storage waiting for the ships to be built.
BuOrd just shrugged it off, gave the guns in storage to the Army for coast defense, then quickly designed new turrets to fit the ship, also rapidly designing, constructing, testing, and then mass producing a totally new 16/50 Mark 7 gun to meet the space and weight requirements of that new turret. This unexpected new design ended up being the best heavy naval gun ever built. That this could be done on short notice is tremendously impressive, and that it could be done so rapidly that not only were there no delays to the ships, but there were no absolutely no reprisals for anyone involved, simply staggers the mind. While other nations struggled to supply battleship main guns at an acceptable pace, and some nations like Italy and the Soviet Union found it unrealistic to even make 16 inch guns at all, the US was able to basically throw away 71 brand new 16-inch guns and design & build new ones on short notice like it was nothing.

Because the screw up was fixed before it caused any construction delays, it does not feature prominently in the story of these ships. But the incident is a comedy of errors, the perfect example of how government bureaucracies can be incredibly efficient, and create tremendous finished products individually, yet be so stuck inside of their own silos that the end result is substantially LESS than the sum of its pieces.

The story starts with the cancellation of the BB-49 class battleships and CC-1 class battlecruisers. The US Navy's Bureau of Ordinance (BuOrd) came up with a wonderful 16-inch weapon for them, the 16/50 Mark 2. Great range, solid steel (not wire wound), good accuracy, great armor penetration. The Naval Gun Factory cranked them out at such a rapid pace that when the ship were canceled per the Washington Treaty there were already 71 complete and 44 semi-complete guns on hand. The US Army asked for some for coast defense, so 20 were turned over to them, but the rest went into storage for future use

The General Board worked within the 35,000 ton treaty limit, and was quite happy with the South Dakota Class design. The Bureau of Construction & Repair (we'll call the C&R for short) came up with a fine ship design. But because of the weight limit, both the South Dakota and North Carolina Class battleships needed a new, lighter weapon than the 16/50s in storage. So BuOrd came up with the 16/45 Mark 6. It was substantially lighter and smaller around, plus the barbettes were smaller around and the turrets were smaller/ lighter. Although it lacked the range and hitting power of the 16/50 it was an excellent weapon.

When it looked like the treaty limit would jump up to 45,000 tons, the General Board went looking to see what they could 'buy' with the extra 10,000 tons. The first basic idea was to use the basic South Dakota design, stretch the hull, and add another turret. This would give a nice increase in hitting power. But the fleet wanted some fast battleships to build fast task forces around with carriers and cruisers, as the Japanese could do this with heavy cruisers and the Kongo class escorting carriers. So the other basic idea was a South Dakota with a stretched hull to fit more machinery, to give a 6 knot speed increase. This sounded like a fine idea, but the General Board thought that surely 10,000 tons would get them more than just a speed increase: could they not have an increase in hitting power also?

So the final idea was what would become the Iowas Class: stretch the hull for more machinery and speed increase to 32 knots, and fit the 16/50s from storage for an increase in hitting power without increasing the number of main guns. Sounds perfect, right?

Well, on paper. When C&R drew it up, they found they would be over the treaty limit. They told the General Board that they could make it work without thinning the armor protection or cutting speed if the turrets could be made lighter. So the General Board asked BuOrd for alternate turret designs, asking them just how light a 16/50 turret could be, without really explaining why. BuOrd thought it was just a theoretical paper design exercise and made a table listing several theoretical 16/50 turret designs, the lightest being one that used the smaller barbette of the 16/45, and that basically skipped all the technological and safety advances made over the preceding 20 years, and that was too cramped to be workable in the real world- but it WAS as light as a 16/50 turret could possibly be. But the General Board passed the specs on to the C&R folks, who thought it was a done deal, and proudly said that with these turrets they could build the 32 knot ship carrying 9* 16/50 guns with the required level of protection on 45,000 tons. The General Board approved, the treaty limit did in fact jump to 45,000 tons, and all seemed well in the world. The original idea, a slower ship with a fourth turret, would eventually morph into the Montana Class design.

C&R, not knowing that the ultra-light turret was just a paper exercise and not a real BuOrd design, designed the ship around its smaller diameter barbette. BuOrd, not knowing that C&R was counting on the smaller turrets, went about designing an improved 16/50 turret with the original, larger diameter barbette they assumed C&R was designing the ship around. Both bureaus worked independently, and no one on the General Board thought to check, so both bureaus had virtually completed their design work and were ready to start contracting out the construction before anyone realized they were working on two completely different and incompatible projects.

When someone finally realized that the turrets would not fit the ship, there were three options.
The first was to modify the ship to accept the turrets. C&R looked at this, but the larger barbette diameter meant cutting larger holes in the strength deck, so the turrets had to be further apart. this pushed the A turret up the bow flair, making it higher from the waterline, so B turret had to be taller to 'see' over it, and the conning tower had to be taller yet to 'see' over B turret...the snowball effect pushed the design well above the treaty limit. Not acceptable.
The second solution was to actually make the turrets small enough to fit in the 16/45 barbette. BuOrd said this was not possible in the real world; they could only did it with the paper exercise by making unacceptable cuts in safety, equipment, and room to work the guns. So if they made the turrets fit the ship, the guns could not fit the turrets. Also not acceptable.
The third solution, and the one I think every other nation on Earth would have needed to go with, was to simply use the 16/45 guns and turrets from the South Dakota. This still would have been and excellent ship, well protected, fast, and it would have the advantage of simplified logistics with all the new battleships carrying the same gun. But this meant that all 10,000 tons gained was a jump from 27.5 to 32 knots, and the General Board had already said they wanted more than just a speed increase for the cost of the extra 10,000 tons, and since the Iowa was not even the full 6 knots faster then South Dakota they did not think this was an acceptable solution either.

But BuOrd saved the day: they surplussed the existing 16/50 guns, scrapped the turret design they had just completed, and broke out there pencils and slide rules. They quickly designed an all new 16/50 Mark 7, which had the range and hitting power of the original, but was much stronger structurally, so it could be thinner, resulting an a gun that had a much smaller exterior diameter than the original. This let them design a turrets for it that fit in the same smaller diameter barbette as the 16/45- the same one C&R had designed the ship around.

So the General Board got what they had wanted: a fast battleship with more hitting power then the South Dakota. The Naval Gun Factory was able to manufacture the guns quickly enough that there were no construction delays, even though they had not counted on having to manufacture ANY heavy guns for the Iowa Class at all. That they could unexpectedly fill the order for 36 16-inch guns (plus a prototype and several spares) of an entirely new design, and that they could do it without causing even one day of delay to the Iowa Class project, speaks volumes about what an astonishing organization the Naval Gun Factory was, and about just what a tremendous industrial capacity they had. While even the UK had to order guns more than a year before laying down the ships, the Naval Gun Factory was able to build dozens of the new 16/45 even though they got the order AFTER North Carolina was laid down, and also to build dozens of the 16/50 on short notice, both without causing any delays to the construction of the ships.

Everyone went about their business happy with the end result: catastrophe had been averted. With no one wanting to stir up a firestorm of blame that might burn them also, that was that, and there were no negative consequences to a design process that sounded like an Abbott and Costello skit. Well, no negative consequences unless you count the time wasted designing the larger turrets that ended up not being built, and the 71+44 excellent battleship weapons that the Navy was never ever actually able to use. They gave them to the Army, but they did not have much in the way of either need or funding for them, so they pretty much went to waste.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Best on paper, sure. But best in terms of actual service delivered? Montana is clearly out and honestly the Iowas would have given better service had they been available sooner. By the time they were available their main role was a very large, very expensive anti-aircraft cruiser. ;)

Also, if we're talking about errors in mounting 16" guns, I think the one with the Iowas' turrets stands out. Because of miscommunication, the original turrets designed for the Iowas were too large to actually fit on the ship, while any turret that would fit the ship could not mount the guns already sitting in storage waiting for the ships to be built. Fortunately, US industrial capacity was so great that new turrets and guns were designed and built in time and didn't delay Iowa at all.

http://warships1discussionboards.yu...t-advantage-of-quadruple-turrets#reply-276284

In the US, the guns and mountings could be manufactured rapidly, so they could be ordered or even changed after the ships were started. This not only let them up-gun the North Carolinas without any delays, but it seriously saved their bacon on the Iowa class screw up. Somewhat late in the design phase it was discovered that BuOrd, due to a commical miscommunication with the Bureau of Construction and Repair, had accidental designed a turret that was so large it could not actually fit on the ship. Even worse, any turret that WOULD fit the ship could not mount the 16/50 Mark 2 guns already sitting in storage waiting for the ships to be built.
BuOrd just shrugged it off, gave the guns in storage to the Army for coast defense, then quickly designed new turrets to fit the ship, also rapidly designing, constructing, testing, and then mass producing a totally new 16/50 Mark 7 gun to meet the space and weight requirements of that new turret. This unexpected new design ended up being the best heavy naval gun ever built. That this could be done on short notice is tremendously impressive, and that it could be done so rapidly that not only were there no delays to the ships, but there were no absolutely no reprisals for anyone involved, simply staggers the mind. While other nations struggled to supply battleship main guns at an acceptable pace, and some nations like Italy and the Soviet Union found it unrealistic to even make 16 inch guns at all, the US was able to basically throw away 71 brand new 16-inch guns and design & build new ones on short notice like it was nothing.

Because the screw up was fixed before it caused any construction delays, it does not feature prominently in the story of these ships. But the incident is a comedy of errors, the perfect example of how government bureaucracies can be incredibly efficient, and create tremendous finished products individually, yet be so stuck inside of their own silos that the end result is substantially LESS than the sum of its pieces.

The story starts with the cancellation of the BB-49 class battleships and CC-1 class battlecruisers. The US Navy's Bureau of Ordinance (BuOrd) came up with a wonderful 16-inch weapon for them, the 16/50 Mark 2. Great range, solid steel (not wire wound), good accuracy, great armor penetration. The Naval Gun Factory cranked them out at such a rapid pace that when the ship were canceled per the Washington Treaty there were already 71 complete and 44 semi-complete guns on hand. The US Army asked for some for coast defense, so 20 were turned over to them, but the rest went into storage for future use

The General Board worked within the 35,000 ton treaty limit, and was quite happy with the South Dakota Class design. The Bureau of Construction & Repair (we'll call the C&R for short) came up with a fine ship design. But because of the weight limit, both the South Dakota and North Carolina Class battleships needed a new, lighter weapon than the 16/50s in storage. So BuOrd came up with the 16/45 Mark 6. It was substantially lighter and smaller around, plus the barbettes were smaller around and the turrets were smaller/ lighter. Although it lacked the range and hitting power of the 16/50 it was an excellent weapon.

When it looked like the treaty limit would jump up to 45,000 tons, the General Board went looking to see what they could 'buy' with the extra 10,000 tons. The first basic idea was to use the basic South Dakota design, stretch the hull, and add another turret. This would give a nice increase in hitting power. But the fleet wanted some fast battleships to build fast task forces around with carriers and cruisers, as the Japanese could do this with heavy cruisers and the Kongo class escorting carriers. So the other basic idea was a South Dakota with a stretched hull to fit more machinery, to give a 6 knot speed increase. This sounded like a fine idea, but the General Board thought that surely 10,000 tons would get them more than just a speed increase: could they not have an increase in hitting power also?

So the final idea was what would become the Iowas Class: stretch the hull for more machinery and speed increase to 32 knots, and fit the 16/50s from storage for an increase in hitting power without increasing the number of main guns. Sounds perfect, right?

Well, on paper. When C&R drew it up, they found they would be over the treaty limit. They told the General Board that they could make it work without thinning the armor protection or cutting speed if the turrets could be made lighter. So the General Board asked BuOrd for alternate turret designs, asking them just how light a 16/50 turret could be, without really explaining why. BuOrd thought it was just a theoretical paper design exercise and made a table listing several theoretical 16/50 turret designs, the lightest being one that used the smaller barbette of the 16/45, and that basically skipped all the technological and safety advances made over the preceding 20 years, and that was too cramped to be workable in the real world- but it WAS as light as a 16/50 turret could possibly be. But the General Board passed the specs on to the C&R folks, who thought it was a done deal, and proudly said that with these turrets they could build the 32 knot ship carrying 9* 16/50 guns with the required level of protection on 45,000 tons. The General Board approved, the treaty limit did in fact jump to 45,000 tons, and all seemed well in the world. The original idea, a slower ship with a fourth turret, would eventually morph into the Montana Class design.

C&R, not knowing that the ultra-light turret was just a paper exercise and not a real BuOrd design, designed the ship around its smaller diameter barbette. BuOrd, not knowing that C&R was counting on the smaller turrets, went about designing an improved 16/50 turret with the original, larger diameter barbette they assumed C&R was designing the ship around. Both bureaus worked independently, and no one on the General Board thought to check, so both bureaus had virtually completed their design work and were ready to start contracting out the construction before anyone realized they were working on two completely different and incompatible projects.

When someone finally realized that the turrets would not fit the ship, there were three options.
The first was to modify the ship to accept the turrets. C&R looked at this, but the larger barbette diameter meant cutting larger holes in the strength deck, so the turrets had to be further apart. this pushed the A turret up the bow flair, making it higher from the waterline, so B turret had to be taller to 'see' over it, and the conning tower had to be taller yet to 'see' over B turret...the snowball effect pushed the design well above the treaty limit. Not acceptable.
The second solution was to actually make the turrets small enough to fit in the 16/45 barbette. BuOrd said this was not possible in the real world; they could only did it with the paper exercise by making unacceptable cuts in safety, equipment, and room to work the guns. So if they made the turrets fit the ship, the guns could not fit the turrets. Also not acceptable.
The third solution, and the one I think every other nation on Earth would have needed to go with, was to simply use the 16/45 guns and turrets from the South Dakota. This still would have been and excellent ship, well protected, fast, and it would have the advantage of simplified logistics with all the new battleships carrying the same gun. But this meant that all 10,000 tons gained was a jump from 27.5 to 32 knots, and the General Board had already said they wanted more than just a speed increase for the cost of the extra 10,000 tons, and since the Iowa was not even the full 6 knots faster then South Dakota they did not think this was an acceptable solution either.

But BuOrd saved the day: they surplussed the existing 16/50 guns, scrapped the turret design they had just completed, and broke out there pencils and slide rules. They quickly designed an all new 16/50 Mark 7, which had the range and hitting power of the original, but was much stronger structurally, so it could be thinner, resulting an a gun that had a much smaller exterior diameter than the original. This let them design a turrets for it that fit in the same smaller diameter barbette as the 16/45- the same one C&R had designed the ship around.

So the General Board got what they had wanted: a fast battleship with more hitting power then the South Dakota. The Naval Gun Factory was able to manufacture the guns quickly enough that there were no construction delays, even though they had not counted on having to manufacture ANY heavy guns for the Iowa Class at all. That they could unexpectedly fill the order for 36 16-inch guns (plus a prototype and several spares) of an entirely new design, and that they could do it without causing even one day of delay to the Iowa Class project, speaks volumes about what an astonishing organization the Naval Gun Factory was, and about just what a tremendous industrial capacity they had. While even the UK had to order guns more than a year before laying down the ships, the Naval Gun Factory was able to build dozens of the new 16/45 even though they got the order AFTER North Carolina was laid down, and also to build dozens of the 16/50 on short notice, both without causing any delays to the construction of the ships.

Everyone went about their business happy with the end result: catastrophe had been averted. With no one wanting to stir up a firestorm of blame that might burn them also, that was that, and there were no negative consequences to a design process that sounded like an Abbott and Costello skit. Well, no negative consequences unless you count the time wasted designing the larger turrets that ended up not being built, and the 71+44 excellent battleship weapons that the Navy was never ever actually able to use. They gave them to the Army, but they did not have much in the way of either need or funding for them, so they pretty much went to waste.
Because their production methods such as machine tool and assembly line were vastly superior compared to the Brits. The German also had superior industrial techniques. The situation was even worse before world war 1.
 
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How would the RN and RAF look like if the ww2 was delayed to 1944?
For starters, with Chamberlain's apparent success with appeasement up to his death in Nov 1940, Churchill is likely not the PM until 1944, if at all. So, we have to consider what impact that has.
 
Because their production methods such as machine tool and assembly line were vastly superior compared to the Brits. The German also had superior industrial techniques. The situation was even worse before world war 1.

You're telling me that US and German naval production capacities were both greatly superior to that of the British in the build-up to WW1? Okay.
 
Because their production methods such as machine tool and assembly line were vastly superior compared to the Brits. The German also had superior industrial techniques. The situation was even worse before world war 1.

Ahh this explains why Britain built so few battleships between 1906 and 1946 as opposed to Germany and the US. Thanks for making that clear.

For starters, with Chamberlain's apparent success with appeasement up to his death in Nov 1940, Churchill is likely not the PM until 1944, if at all. So, we have to consider what impact that has.

Assuming that British Rearmament plans go as per intended ie no delays due to BOA and the invasion panic, Churchillian meddling and WW2 in general then the Lions get laid down, aircraft development continues as intended ie Griffin and other engines not suspended or even cancelled - and the planned expansion of the British army and commonwealth army's proceed unhindered etc then by 1944 its going to be a pretty powerful force.

Battleship wise its going to have 16 Modern or Modernised ships in 1944 and 8 unmodernised ships

4 Lions - possibly in commission or working up
5 KGVs - completely worked up
3 QEs - completely rebuilt
1 Renown - completely rebuilt
1 Hood is probably finishing or has finished her planned deep refit or 'large repair' assuming it started in 40-42 and mirrored that of the Renown and QEs
2 Nelsons - Fully worked up
(Guards van is unlikely to even be needed?)

2 Unmodernised QEs
5 Unmodernised Revenge's
1 Unmodernised Repulse
Its possible that some of the 2 QEs and Repulse may also have started a deep refit during this time (they could be spared as the KGVs are available)

I would also assume that France would have built and commissioned all 4 Richelieu class Battleships by 1944 - giving them 6 modern battleships
 
Battleship wise its going to have 16 Modern or Modernised ships in 1944 and 8 unmodernised ships

4 Lions - possibly in commission or working up
5 KGVs - completely worked up
3 QEs - completely rebuilt
1 Renown - completely rebuilt
1 Hood is probably finishing or has finished her planned deep refit or 'large repair' assuming it started in 40-42 and mirrored that of the Renown and QEs
2 Nelsons - Fully worked up
(Guards van is unlikely to even be needed?)

2 Unmodernised QEs
5 Unmodernised Revenge's
1 Unmodernised Repulse
Its possible that some of the 2 QEs and Repulse may also have started a deep refit during this time (they could be spared as the KGVs are available)
In addition to your list above, all six AFD carriers will likely be completed (adding to a CV force of Ark Royal, 3xOutrageous, Hermes, Eagle and Argus), plus many more cruisers, destroyers and submarines.

Do you see a manpower shortage with all this peacetime expansion? Without conscription, much of the older fleet, etc. may need to be mothballed or transferred to other CW fleets. The Revenge class will definitely need to be scrapped, with the guns mothballed for spares for the QEs or perhaps a Vanguard or five in future.

The three Outrageous carriers, with their good speed and twin full length hangars may be valuable for the RAN - likely one ship active, one for pilot training, one in reserve. And Australia may speed up the expansion of its drydock in order to handle 790ft long warships. And the RCN could use Argus as the beginnings of a CVE program.
 
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Ahh this explains why Britain built so few battleships between 1906 and 1946 as opposed to Germany and the US. Thanks for making that clear.



Assuming that British Rearmament plans go as per intended ie no delays due to BOA and the invasion panic, Churchillian meddling and WW2 in general then the Lions get laid down, aircraft development continues as intended ie Griffin and other engines not suspended or even cancelled - and the planned expansion of the British army and commonwealth army's proceed unhindered etc then by 1944 its going to be a pretty powerful force.

Battleship wise its going to have 16 Modern or Modernised ships in 1944 and 8 unmodernised ships

4 Lions - possibly in commission or working up
5 KGVs - completely worked up
3 QEs - completely rebuilt
1 Renown - completely rebuilt
1 Hood is probably finishing or has finished her planned deep refit or 'large repair' assuming it started in 40-42 and mirrored that of the Renown and QEs
2 Nelsons - Fully worked up
(Guards van is unlikely to even be needed?)

2 Unmodernised QEs
5 Unmodernised Revenge's
1 Unmodernised Repulse
Its possible that some of the 2 QEs and Repulse may also have started a deep refit during this time (they could be spared as the KGVs are available)

I would also assume that France would have built and commissioned all 4 Richelieu class Battleships by 1944 - giving them 6 modern battleships

Actually HMS Hood's refit was to coincide with the refit of HMS Barham and possibly HMS Malaya as well, though the later had had her partial refit in the mid 30's, so might be skipped. HMS Barham on the other had was schedulled for a Queen Elisabeth type reconstruction in 1941, if war was not to intervene. HMS Repulse was to be decommissioned, by the activation of one of the later King George V class ships, or at the last by the commissioning of the first Lion class ship. The five Royal Sovereign class ships propably would have followed soon, being considered not worth an expensive refit. (HMS Royal Oak was the only ship in this class treated by a more extensive refit in the 30's, compared to her sisters, but even she was not fully treated, compared to the more valuable Queen Elisabeth Class.)

HMS Vanguard might indeed be replaced with one of the Lion class battleships, as these too were likely to be intended for Pacific service as well, while the short legged King George V class was likely to stay in European and Atlantic waters. (New 16 inch shells of the British were much more capable than the older Mk-1 shells for the Nelson's, so no need to reuse the existing older 15 inch guns as well, appart from possible reuse in monitor type vessels.)
 
In addition to your list above, all six AFD carriers will likely be completed (adding to a CV force of Ark Royal, 3xOutrageous, Hermes, Eagle and Argus), plus many more cruisers, destroyers and submarines.

Do you see a manpower shortage with all this peacetime expansion? Without conscription, much of the older fleet, etc. may need to be mothballed or transferred to other CW fleets.

The three Outrageous carriers, with their good speed and twin full length hangars may be valuable for the RAN - likely one ship active, one for pilot training, one in reserve. And Australia may speed up the expansion of its drydock in order to handle 790ft long warships. And the RCN could use Argus as the beginnings of a CVE program.

The older ones, like HMS Argus, Hermes and Eagle were likely to be reduced to trainignships at their best, while even the Courageous class ships were beginning to show their age, with troublesome older generation engines and boilers. Better create new ships from scratch than try to retain these venerable and vulnerable older ships, whcih also had lesser airgroups in the three oldest ships.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Ahh this explains why Britain built so few battleships between 1906 and 1946 as opposed to Germany and the US. Thanks for making that clear.



Of course the US built more ships than the UK by a huge margin during ww2 because they applied assembly line, mechanization and electric welding tech in shipbuilding in ww2.

For the German, they devoted their industry to their army and airforce. While the Brits built more ships, the German produced more rifles, pistols, machine guns, mortars, artillery, shells, explosives, MACHINE TOOL, steel (German MACHINE TOOL and steel also had superior quality) in both wars, and in ww2 they produced more tanks (also better). German also led in ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT and ELECTRONICS (especially in ww1). Finally, German led in rocketry (V1, V2), as well as chemistry and chemical weapons, while the Brits could not develop similar weapons of their own. The Allies and especially Soviet should have felt lucky that they did not use nerve gas, because they falsely believed that Britain could produce nerve gas.

Well, I emphasize machine tool because you must have them to produce other goods.
 
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For this to work you have to avoid the German occupation of the rump of Czechoslovakia in the spring of 1939 as well as the invasion of Poland. The British had effectively been mobilising since then. That included the doubling of the Territorial Army and the abolition of financial controls that up till then had stopped the "Top Brass" from expanding the armed forces at the rate they thought was necessary.

But not doing that deprives Germany of IIRC 10 million badly needed tax payers, the Czech gold reserves, the equipment of the Czech Army (equivalent of 35 divisions IIRC), the Czech armaments industry, including the LT-28 tank and the civilian industries of Europe's most developed small nation, with the possible exceptions of the Benelux countries.
I've changed my min about that. I now think that a war between Germany and the UK wasn't inevitable after the occupation of Bohemia-Moravia. But Germany was on its final warning.

Although I think that the Allies will gain more from delaying the war for 5 years than the Axis, one of the things it does allow the Germans to do is give the German Army time to standardise on German equipment instead of the mix of Austrian, German and Czech equipment it had to use in OTL. IIRC the Germans were expanding the automobile manufacturing industry, could some of that extra capacity be used to mechanise more of the German Army by eliminating horses in the artillery and transport branches?

The Germans might have more technically advanced equipment in 1944 TTL than OTL because they wont have the moratorium on long term projects that they had IOTL.

Other's have said that Germany would have collapsed economically by 1944 and that might be true, but OTOH and IIRC economic commentators had said the Nazis were going to run the German economy into the ground from the moment they took power. If the war is delayed to 1944 would Germany be on its second Four Year Plan? With another 5 years of peace could they have expanded their coal production to feed more synthetic oil plants and increased the output of the oil fields in Austria?
 
Tooze talks of a crisis in foreign-currency and gold that was averted by nicking other countries' reserves. "Collapsed" is the wrong word, but certainly the pace of rearmament would have to be slowed, just as French and British rearmament was accelerating.

That bodes ill for Germany, but it's not less about the fancy technological specifications of your shiny bits of kit and more about how people use them, as the Battle of France demonstrated.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
You're telling me that US and German naval production capacities were both greatly superior to that of the British in the build-up to WW1? Okay.
Of course the US built more ships than the UK by a huge margin during ww2, especially cargo, because they applied assembly line, mechanization and electric welding tech in shipbuilding in ww2 (search henry kaiser for more info). Please find me an image that shows the Brits used production line in shipbuilding.

For the German, they devoted their industry to their army and airforce. While the Brits built more ships, the German produced more rifles, pistols, machine guns, mortars, artillery, shells, explosives, MACHINE TOOL, steel (German MACHINE TOOL and steel also had superior quality) in both wars, and in ww2 they produced more tanks (also better). German also led in ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT and ELECTRONICS (especially in ww1). Finally, German led in rocketry (V1, V2), as well as chemistry and chemical weapons, while the Brits could not develop similar weapons of their own. The Allies and especially Soviet should have felt lucky that they did not use nerve gas, because they falsely believed that Britain could produce nerve gas.

Well, I emphasize machine tool because you must have them to produce other goods.
 
I've changed my min about that. I now think that a war between Germany and the UK wasn't inevitable after the occupation of Bohemia-Moravia. But Germany was on its final warning.

As noted above it had a large impact on Allied preparedness, shifting it from 'gradual build-up' to 'ready for immediate war'.
 
Tooze talks of a crisis in foreign-currency and gold that was averted by nicking other countries' reserves. "Collapsed" is the wrong word, but certainly the pace of rearmament would have to be slowed, just as French and British rearmament was accelerating.

That bodes ill for Germany, but it's not less about the fancy technological specifications of your shiny bits of kit and more about how people use them, as the Battle of France demonstrated.
IIRC from Rise and Fall of the Great Powers the Germans were cutting their own rearmament back in favour of exports in 1938 and 1939. My guess is that having acquired a border with the Balkan nations through the annexation of Austria and what is now the Czech Republic that they would do as much as possible to develop a trading area with Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Yugoslavia with the intention of maximising their output of raw materials.

Although I had earlier written that the British Government had put the country on a war footing after Germany made Bohemia-Moravia a protectorate the acceleration of rearmament begun in its aftermath was probably not sustainable in the long term. If Germany didn't invade Poland later in 1939 and there was less prospect of war in a few months time its likely that the British would have to cut back. A similar thing happened in the 1950s. That is the Government sanctioned a 3-year rearmament programme in 1951 thinking a war with the Soviet Union was imminent, but due to the strain it put on the economy and because World War III seemed increasingly less likely the programme was reduced in scope and the completion date put back.

Going back to 1936, IIRC the Top Brass wanted to spend £1,650 million on rearmament 1937-42, but the Treasury said that the country could only afford £1,500 million through increasing taxes and borrowing. The economists said that if defence spending was too high in the short term it would reduce the amount that could be spent on the armed forces in the long term. The Treasury often referred to the economy as the "Fourth Arm of Defence."
 
Another option might be to have the war taking an entirely different perspecitve in a shift in alliances, mostly due to the growing threat posed by the USSR in worldaffairs and especially in Europe, where it not only threatened states from its own direct borders, but alos by means of allied communits factions in other nations as well, particularry in France, which boasted a large communist party itself. It is not entirely beyond thinking to see a sort of communist, or leftist takeover in France, breaking away from the Anglo-French Alliance and getting to supprot openly the USSR, hereby threatening Germany in a two front entanglement, possibly causing the UK to reconsider its differences with Germany altogether. If played well, the Germans could get sympathy even as the defending side, against Franco-Soviet agression....
 

Thomas1195

Banned
IIRC from Rise and Fall of the Great Powers the Germans were cutting their own rearmament back in favour of exports in 1938 and 1939. My guess is that having acquired a border with the Balkan nations through the annexation of Austria and what is now the Czech Republic that they would do as much as possible to develop a trading area with Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Yugoslavia with the intention of maximising their output of raw materials.

Although I had earlier written that the British Government had put the country on a war footing after Germany made Bohemia-Moravia a protectorate the acceleration of rearmament begun in its aftermath was probably not sustainable in the long term. If Germany didn't invade Poland later in 1939 and there was less prospect of war in a few months time its likely that the British would have to cut back. A similar thing happened in the 1950s. That is the Government sanctioned a 3-year rearmament programme in 1951 thinking a war with the Soviet Union was imminent, but due to the strain it put on the economy and because World War III seemed increasingly less likely the programme was reduced in scope and the completion date put back.

Going back to 1936, IIRC the Top Brass wanted to spend £1,650 million on rearmament 1937-42, but the Treasury said that the country could only afford £1,500 million through increasing taxes and borrowing. The economists said that if defence spending was too high in the short term it would reduce the amount that could be spent on the armed forces in the long term. The Treasury often referred to the economy as the "Fourth Arm of Defence."
For the Allies, they might adopt a gradual cut, first on the army. But no way the German could afford to continue plan z while maintaining or even enlarging over 100 army divisions, plus mad projects like concentration camps or landkreuzer, or other unfeasible ones like people' cars. They would run out of the money which were stolen from annexed countries, as their economy was basically a huge ponzi based on excessive spending on military and construction and excessive deficit, and could only financed by exploiting Jews and occupied regions. They also suffered huge trade deficit because raw material prices were rising and manufactures prices were falling (german sells manufactures to ussr and other small neighbours for raw materials). The Allies were actually aware of this. The problem for the Brits and French was that they declared war, means German would attack them soon, but did nothing. If they wanted to do nothing, they shouldn't have declared war.
 
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For the German, they devoted their industry to their army and airforce. While the Brits built more ships, the German produced more rifles, pistols, machine guns, mortars, artillery, shells, explosives

Which is unsurprising considering that the UK had huge stocks of rifles (especially) and other small arms and that Germany had a larger army.

MACHINE TOOL, steel (German MACHINE TOOL and steel also had superior quality) in both wars

Actually German armour was often very poor quality, brittle and poorly welded. This was a constant through most of the war, according to articles I've read, and not just a late war consequence of Allied bombing and rushed production. Records as far back as the very first years of the war report similar defects in Tiger II, Tiger and even Pz.IIIs.

http://ftr.wot-news.com/2014/02/06/on-german-armour/ as one example of many, many articles that come up when 'brittle German armour' is put into Google.


and in ww2 they produced more tanks (also better)

Where they?

They were visually very impressive and often carried hugely effective guns (especially the late war big cats) but were they better than the British equivalents?

The early war tanks (ie the Pz. I - Pz.III and the early versions of the Pz.IV) weren't really anything particularly special compared to the British, French or Soviet equivalents. The Tiger (both variants) looked very scary but they were badly underpowered and a huge logistic drain on an army that couldn't afford the massive amounts of fuel they needed. The Panther wasn't much better in that respect either.

Having big scary guns isn't much good if you don't have enough fuel to start up and if the armour breaks as soon as an enemy round hits it.


. German also led in ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT and ELECTRONICS (especially in ww1). Finally, German led in rocketry (V1, V2), as well as chemistry and chemical weapons, while the Brits could not develop similar weapons of their own. The Allies and especially Soviet should have felt lucky that they did not use nerve gas, because they falsely believed that Britain could produce nerve gas.

If Germany had used any form of chemical weapons against the UK then Germany would have ceased to exist - the RAF would have dropped so much anthrax on them that Germany would still be a wasteland now.
 
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Of course the US built more ships than the UK by a huge margin during ww2, especially cargo, because they applied assembly line, mechanization and electric welding tech in shipbuilding in ww2 (search henry kaiser for more info). Please find me an image that shows the Brits used production line in shipbuilding.

You've confused WW1 with WW2, and naval ships with merchantmen in this reply. Please stick to your subject and ensure you're not just giving examples of well-known facts, such as US industrial strength in WW2 and the German need for dominant ground forces.
 
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