Reverse Battle of Nashville

[Gigapump]

What would have happened if, by the laws of Majicks, because I know the actual real world chances of this are next to none, Hood's attacks all succeeded against Sherman, and his army was horribly defeated(25% casualty rate, rout)?

Like I said, I know it's unrealistic. But what changes would have occured to the overall war? Would there have really been much impact at all this late in the war?

Could Lee use his brief fresh reinforcements to attack Grant in the hopes of dislodging him? And would such an attack have any chance of succeeding? I doubt it, but if he could achieve a breakthrough, he might be able to keep pushing briefly before ducking back into Petersburg and nursing his wounds. What would the effects of that kind of battle be? Could that potentially remove Grant from command? After all, he had failed quite a few battles against Lee, and the Union was constantly switching leaders of the AotP. Without Lincoln using his favoritism to protect Grant's position, McClellan would probably replace the only man that could beat Lee (relatively) quickly.

Damn, I'm getting a rush of inspiration. I would say that the probably of this series of events occurring is around 35%, if Sherman's army is crushed very badly at Nashville.

Let's go with this. What would happen if Grant was replaced, with McClellan as president, and the south, at least at the moment, ascendant? What's Lee's next move? Who replaces Grant? I doubt the war's outcome would change overall, but this would probably be the Army of Northern Virginia's last chance of victory. Could they pull it off?

 

[Planet of Hats]

Someone's really eager to save the Confederacy.

 

[Gigapump]

Someone's really eager to save the Confederacy.

It's more a question of how much any major southern victory would've even mattered in the endgame.

 

[Just a Rube]

Are we suggesting that he has a major victory over Sherman before the fall of Atlanta, driving him back? In that case it could affect the election significantly. Lincoln will still try to expedite the war effort even if he loses (he planned to present his successor with the war essentially won should he lose the election, thus preserving the Union as a fait accompli). Whether he succeeds in this will depend on multiple things, including how willing McClellan is to continue the war versus make peace. Given his views on slavery, it's likely to be very bad for African-Americans even in a Union victory with McClellan at the helm (likely worse than Andrew Johnson's policies).

If we are talking after Lincoln's reelection, it makes little difference; Lincoln is committed to seeing it through, and Lee can't hold Petersburg much beyond OTL. If anything, if the frontline is still in Georgia rather than North Carolina, Lee's in an even worse spot for holding out, as OTL he seems to have hoped to meet up with Johnston in North Carolina if he won free of Grant. Once Lee surrenders, the Upper South is lost, and Hood's army is basically a distraction; you'll probably see a wave of surrenders as OTL.

 

[Gigapump]

Are we suggesting that he has a major victory over Sherman before the fall of Atlanta, driving him back? In that case it could affect the election significantly. Lincoln will still try to expedite the war effort even if he loses (he planned to present his successor with the war essentially won should he lose the election, thus preserving the Union as a fait accompli). Whether he succeeds in this will depend on multiple things, including how willing McClellan is to continue the war versus make peace. Given his views on slavery, it's likely to be very bad for African-Americans even in a Union victory with McClellan at the helm (likely worse than Andrew Johnson's policies).

If we are talking after Lincoln's reelection, it makes little difference; Lincoln is committed to seeing it through, and Lee can't hold Petersburg much beyond OTL. If anything, if the frontline is still in Georgia rather than North Carolina, Lee's in an even worse spot for holding out, as OTL he seems to have hoped to meet up with Johnston in North Carolina if he won free of Grant. Once Lee surrenders, the Upper South is lost, and Hood's army is basically a distraction; you'll probably see a wave of surrenders as OTL.

Let's say that McClellan wants to continue the war, or at the very least he isn't elected president. Sherman's army withdraws into Kentucky. The battle I'm talking about is the Battle of Nashville, btw, if that helps clarify. I'm pretty sure that would give Hood a chance to move north and reinforce Lee. Would that have the potential to change Petersburg?

 

[Jasen777]

McClellan was not a Peace Democrat, and wouldn't quit a war he knew they'd win. Grant has figured out how to win the war in the east and it's only a matter of time and deaths until he does - southern manpower is reaching a breaking point and any reinforcement from the west won't matter for long.

 

[Gigapump]

McClellan was not a Peace Democrat, and wouldn't quit a war he knew they'd win. Grant has figured out how to win the war in the east and it's only a matter of time and deaths until he does - southern manpower is reaching a breaking point and any reinforcement from the west won't matter for long.

But could Lee use his brief fresh reinforcements to attack Grant in the hopes of dislodging him? And would such an attack have any chance of succeeding? I doubt it, but if he could achieve a breakthrough, he might be able to keep pushing briefly before ducking back into Petersburg and nursing his wounds. What would the effects of that kind of battle be? Could that potentially remove Grant from command? After all, he had failed quite a few battles against Lee, and the Union was constantly switching leaders of the AotP. Without Lincoln using his favoritism to protect Grant's position, McClellan would probably replace the only man that could beat Lee (relatively) quickly.

Damn, I'm getting a rush of inspiration. I would say that the probably of this series of events occurring is around 35%, if Sherman's army is crushed badly at Nashville.

Let's go with this. What would happen if Grant was replaced, with McClellan as president, and the south, at least at the moment, ascendant? What's Lee's next move? Who replaces Grant? I doubt the war's outcome would change overall, but this would probably be the Army of Northern Virginia's last chance of victory. Could they pull it off?

 

[Jasen777]

McClellan would probably replace the only man that could beat Lee (relatively) quickly.

Well you're right, I suppose things could get messy if McClellan did that.

 

[Gigapump]

Well you're right, I suppose things could get messy if McClellan did that.

I'm not quite familiar with the Union high command structure at the time. Who would replace Grant?

 

[Gigapump]

b u m p

 

[Anaxagoras]

Sherman was hundreds of miles away from Nashville, down in Georgia, when the battle took place. The Union army at Nashville was commanded by George Thomas.

 

[Gigapump]

Sherman was hundreds of miles away from Nashville, down in Georgia, when the battle took place. The Union army at Nashville was commanded by George Thomas.

So it was. That's kind of helpful, but also irrelevant.

 

[rob2001]

I just don't see how Hood could really have won at Nashville. Even if the Battle of Franklin had gone his way, Hood only had 30,000 men in November 1864. After that disaster, he only had about 23,000, while Thomas had over 71,000 men in December 1864. Not to mention several Confederate generals were either killed or wounded at Franklin, along with other high ranking officers. By the time Nashville happened, the Army of Tennessee of was shattered. He couldn't even set up a proper siege, because he had so few men. It should also be noted that when Hood took command of the Army of Tennessee their were 60,000 men under arms.

 

[Gigapump]

I just don't see how Hood could really have won at Nashville. Even if the Battle of Franklin had gone his way, Hood only had 30,000 men in November 1864. After that disaster, he only had about 23,000, while Thomas had over 71,000 men in December 1864. Not to mention several Confederate generals were either killed or wounded at Franklin, along with other high ranking officers. By the time Nashville happened, the Army of Tennessee of was shattered. He could n't even set up a proper siege, because he had so few men. It should also be noted that when Hood took command of the Army of Tennessee their were 60,000 men under arms.

As I said, the scenario isn't very realistic. They won because MaJiCkS.

 

[Just a Rube]

Nashville is too late. It was December 1864; by that time Lincoln is already reelected, and Savannah is about to fall. Nashville falling is a blow to the Union, but a recoverable one; The remaining Union forces in the area are sufficient to contain whatever is left of Hood's army (as even an inexplicable victory at Nashville is going to cost casualties), while Sherman can either reinforce from Savannah (cutting another swathe through Georgia) or continue north to seize the Carolinas as OTL. Lee is still trapped, and nothing Hood does can affect that, which means Richmond will fall and the Confederacy will lose their other major field army in the spring, as OTL. At that point, the Union has multiple armies free to hunt down and trap Hood, assuming he doesn't surrender.

 

[Anaxagoras]

Hood could have inflicted a severe defeat upon Schofield at Spring Hill. Indeed, there was a time during those tense twenty-four hours when the high command of Schofield's force, which numbered around 20,000, might have to "surrender their way out" of the rebel encirclement. It would, ironically, have been the largest surrender of Union troops to Confederate forces during the war (the Harper's Ferry garrison numbered 11,000), and it would also have allowed the Army of Tennessee to avoid the catastrophe at Franklin.

Let's assume that all the luck runs the Southern way at Spring Hill, just as IOTL it all ran the Northern way. We would have a rebel army arrive outside Nashville much stronger than it was IOTL and having just received a massive morale boost. Moreover, the army of Thomas would be 20,000 men smaller than it was IOTL. Even then, I don't see how Hood could have taken Nashville. The armies would both number around 40,000, but the Union forces would still be lethally better equipped, secure in fortifications rivaled in strength only by those around Washington itself, and in warm and comfortable quarters just as a freezing winter is about to begin.

The question here is whether Thomas will emerge from his defenses and assault Hood. He would not want to, for as a careful commander he would see the logic in allowing Hood's army to waste away through the winter. But as was the case IOTL, political pressure from Washington might push him into an offensive or, perhaps more likely, see him replaced by another commander (it's not inconceivable that Grant himself might come to Nashville, as he very nearly did IOTL). In a battle south of Nashville, with more or less equal numbers, it's not inconceivable that Hood might win, though I doubt it. His talk of "entering the works on the enemy's heels", however, doesn't make too much sense to me.

In the end, though, it doesn't matter. The reelection of Lincoln sealed the fate of the Confederacy Even if, by some miracle, the Confederates utterly crushed Thomas, recaptured Nashville, and secured Middle Tennessee again, it's not going to make any difference in the long run. It might stave off defeat until the fall of 1865, but it would achieve nothing beyond extending the length of the war.