OTL Election maps resources thread

We should call negative personal votes "the Burnham effect".

(even though he's not really that bad of a candidate but shut up)
 
Wait, I don't understand, isn't Manchester redder than blood? Why is there doubts it'll go Labour when almost all mayoralties go Labour anyway?
 
Wait, I don't understand, isn't Manchester redder than blood? Why is there doubts it'll go Labour when almost all mayoralties go Labour anyway?
Manchester is, Greater Manchester a bit less so (as the above map shows).
But yeah, it'll be Labour barring a major upset, and I think Burnham actually makes that less likely - Lloyd could have been portrayed as only out for Manchester, in the same way I understand Boris would portray Ken as a purely Zone 1 mayor.
 
So, in preparation for the upcoming plebiscite on the Colombian peace process, I'm doing a map for the 2014 Colombian presidential elections. I was thinking of having this ready as a "for your consideration" comparison before the vote and then making over time a map on the vote itself, but there's way too many municipalities and it won't be ready for Sunday. So here's the WIP, and I'm hoping to publish the full version sooner than later.

October 2 will see a plebiscite whose exact question is: "Do you support the Final Agreement for the Cessation of Conflict and the Construction of a Stable and Durable Peace?" It's the result of nearly six years of negotiations between two of the main actors in Colombian history; the government (one led by our current President, Juan Manuel Santos Calderón, from the Social Party of National Unity) and the Marxist-Lenninist (although most people nowadays would tell you they've just become narco-terrorists) militia, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - People's Army (FARC-EP, or just FARC), which have ended a 52-year old insurgency against the government.

The insurgency traces its origins back to the era directly following the period known as La Violencia (the political conflict between the Liberal and Conservative parties after the murder of Liberal leader and general strongman Jorge Eliécer Gaitán in 1948), which eventually resulted in the ousting of pseudo-fascist President Laureano Gómez by a coalition of moderate forces of both parties and the National Army. After a four-year "dictatorship" (not really) that was ostensibly non-partisan, the two parties once again realised that the dictator, Gustavo Rojas Pinilla, was a bit too much for them to hold, especially since Rojas Pinilla was definitely in the left wing of things. In Spain, they agreed to share power to oust other political currents from government, something called the National Front; where a coalition of the two parties was arranged so that the Presidency was shared in four-year terms (one Liberal must always be followed by one Conservative) and the legislature (and even judicial appointments) were split equally amongst both parties.

While ostensibly returning democracy to Colombia (free and fair elections returned to the nation in 1958, the first to count with woman's suffrage), the National Front was of course a bit of a destruction of the traditional order of Colombian politics and forced a lot of smaller movements to keep quiet. The left, led by Gustavo Rojas Pinilla in the polls, was the first to suffer. Armed bands of leftists had for a long time inhabited several areas of the country, but push came to shove when, in 1964, the Colombian army bombed and invaded a leftwing redoubt called Marquetalia. After this, a new military organisation, the FARC, were born.

The FARC were, for most of their history, outshined by another, larger terrorist organisation; the April-19 Movement (M-19), which was founded after the 1970 election, which was seen as a sure victory for Rojas Pinilla and as a defeat of both traditional parties, ended up with a mysteriously large majority for Conservative (National Front) president-elect Misael Pastrana. This group is the one you see in Narcos taking over the Palace of Justice (which happened in 1986), stealing Bolívar's sword, and bombing the embassy of the Dominican Republic.

However, the winds of change were blowing in Colombia, and by 1986, it was clear that most people thought there must be a change in organisation from what had been seen already. Conservative president Belisario Betancur (this time, elected in non National Front elections) decided to start negotiations with the M-19 and FARC, and eventually managed for both groups to partially demobilise; the M-19 became the Alianza Democrática M-19, which set up the groundwork for the two major left-wing parties we have today, and the group of FARC members that demobilised formed a new party, the Patriotic Union. Furthermore, in 1991, the old Constitution, constructed under heavily Conservative motifs (though very heavily modified over the years) was changed through a student movement that resulted in the calling for a new National Constituyent Assembly and the drafting of a new Constitution, which is one of the most progressive ones in the world (right next to South Africa).

Of course, nobody in power liked the Patriotic Union, and with very charismatic leaders, they were seen as a real threat to the traditional two-party establishment of Colombia. One of the guys who did not like the creation of the UP was a certain Pablo Emilio Escobar Gaviria (yes, that one Colombian you all guys know) who decided that they had to go. And in traditional Escobar fashion, what ensued was the murder of thousands of UP militants between 1986 and Escobar's death. The UP was wiped out as a political organisation, FARC refused to participate in the drafting of the '91 Constitution and it seemed like the war would continue. And indeed it did, for eight of the worst years of Colombia's history as narcos reigned supreme. The President who came to power in 1994 did only through funds given to him directly by the Cali Cartel valued in the thousands of millions. The Colombian people wanted change, and elected...

...The son of the guy who stole the 1970 election, Andrés Pastrana, from the Conservative Party. Who once again decided to open negotiations with FARC and end this once and for all. This time, FARC played him like a fiddle and treated him for a fool. They stood him up at every event that he proposed, they doubled down on their terrorist attacks, kidnappings and crimes against humanity, and eventually, they were able to goad the government into granting them an area for demobilisation the size of Switzerland. Which of course, they used as a haven for kidnapping, drug smuggling and murder. It got so unsafe that between '98 and '02 three different Governors were killed, and Íngrid Betancourt, an important presidential candidate, was kidnapped.

When Pastrana's term ended the people changed courses and elected the most anti-FARC guy there was; Liberal-turned-Conservative-turned-Independent Álvaro Uribe Vélez, who promised to end the insurgency once and for all. Uribe swept to power with majorities in the first round in the 2002 election (against the most corrupt Liberal ever and Pastrana, to be fair) and soon enough set out on his promises, strengthening the ties with the US that brought us Plan Colombia, greatly increasing the military budget, and seeking a decidedly right-wing approach to law and order and the internal conflict through his motto of "Democratic Security" (which, while never losing the democratic aspect of Colombia, eventually resulted in tanks inside city slums, and near war with Venezuela). Uribe is extremely infamous for his patronage of the third major military group, the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC), more commonly known as the paramilitaries, during his governorship of Antioquia, a policy that he continued during the Presidency (it is rumoured that he is one of the at-large para leaders). Eventually, in 2004, he brokered a deal with the paramilitary forces that mostly granted amnesty to their leading ranks and which unofficially led to a major scandal: over a third of MPs were at one point elected over paramilitary money. Those parmailitary forces that did not accept the peace deal broke away from the AUC, creating an anarchic system of Criminal Bands (Bacrim) which we haven't been able to eliminate.

Even with all his failings, Uribe did manage to lower FARC membership by over two-thirds and recover almost all of the territory of the country (when I was 2 or 3 you couldn't go from Medellín to the airport because FARC would kidnap you; now there's absolutely no problem) and cruised to direct reelection (the first in Colombian history, which required a Constitutional amendment and everything) over left-wing candidate Carlos Gaviria in 2006. When his attempts at a third term were foiled by the Constitutional Court, Uribe decided to go Putin and nominated his right-hand man; Minister of Defense Juan Manuel Santos, who had led an extremely aggressive campaign against FARC (so aggressive, in fact, that he had been accused of authorising murders against civilians) for the 2010 election. While not as successful as Uribe, he easily won in the second round against Green Antanas Mockus, and became our president.

It came as a shock to Uribe supporters nationwide when Santos began unravelling Uribe's traditional doctrine, warming up relations with Hugo Chávez and starting peace negotiations with FARC. By 2011, they had both denounced each other. Santos, however, had retained control of the major relations within Uribe's created party, the Party of the U (subtelty wasn't his strong suit) and arranged an alliance with the Liberals and populist breakaways Cambio Radical, which form our first modern political group, National Unity. On the other hand, Uribe created a new party, the Democratic Centre (officially and very ridiculously called Democratic Centre - "Firm Hand, Large Heart") which began acting as the primary opposition. And so we come to the 2014 elections...

Nobody was surprised when it turned out that the primary election issue for the 2014 campaign was going to be peace with the FARC. After all, the extremely controversial negotiations were at last taking off in Havana and several points were being negotiated.

The incumbent president, Juan Manuel Santos, ran a coalition of a decidedly liberal (and I mean that in the continental European sense of the word) tint, composed of his own National Party of Social Unity (or Party of the U, PSUN), the traditionally hegemonic Liberal Party (L) (which I for the love of God don't understand why is still popular when they are the causes of the largest corruption scandal in recent history and are the most corrupt party in Colombia) and the populist, liberal-conservative offshoot of the Liberals, Cambio Radical (CR) (which is really just a political vehicle for our current Vice-President, Germán Vargas Lleras, favourite presidential candidate for the 2018 elections). This agreement, called National Unity, ran on liberal ideas and the continuation of the peace treaty, but were hindered by accusations of corruption (incredibly true) and the personal unpopularity of Santos, which has overseen a meh economy and a decrease in security.

The main opposition was conformed by Álvaro Uribe's political vehicle, the
Democratic Centre (CD) - officially, and rather ridiculously, named Democratic Centre - "Firm Hand, Large Heart" and which literally has a silohuette of Uribe as their national logo. The CD's candidate for the Presidency was former Minister of the Economy and Uribe clone/puppet Óscar Iván Zuluaga, who ran on social conservatism, Christian democracy, and a firm opposition to the FARC-Government agreements as they stand (while agreeing to continue negotiations). Zuluaga was both helped and hindered by Uribe, the most polarising figure in Colombian politics.

There were three major third-party candidacies, composed of several traditional sectors of society:

The
Conservative Party has long prided itself on supporting Uribe but not actually supporting Uribe, and instead running independent candidacies. This "brilliant" strategy runs back to their wishes for continued Conservative hegemony, and has resulted in a long string of party candidates that barely get up to the double digits but still retain independence (unlike the Liberals). This year they passed on perennial candidate Noemí Sanín for another woman nobody had heard of before the elections: former Minister of Defense Marta Lucía Ramírez, who was only elected as candidate forty days before the election. This has proven another trait from the Conservatives since the Uribe presidency; they can never decide on anything until the last minute, and even then they do it incoherently, with Conservatives such as Solicitor General Alejandro Ordóñez Maldonado supporting the Democratic Centre's candidacy.

On the other hand, perpetual opposition as always comes from the left, with the
Alternative Democratic Pole, allied with the remnants of the Patriotic Union, nominated top scholar Clara López to the presidency. López is also the niece of former Liberal president Alfonso López Michélsen, and the great-niece of Liberal president Alfonso López Pumarejo. From an old and distinguished family, and supported by a more or less united left, it seemed like the far-left finally had some shot at relevancy.

Finally, there's the centrist
Green Party, product of an alliance between the former political entities of the M-19 and student movements that allowed for the change in constitution. The Green Party had proved the main opposition to Santos in the last presidential election, and this time they nominated another centrist technocrat; former mayor of Bogotá, Enrique Peñalosa, who topped the polls for a while but then sank down after a disastruous debate performance. (The technocrat thing is a trend that will probably continue in 2018, with their favourite being my favourite, and least-unfavourably-viewn candidate in Colombia, former Governor of Antioquia Sergio Fajardo, who actually studied mathematics).

The election started off pretty decent, with every candidate exposing different views for a future Colombia. Two candidates (Santos and López) were unconditionally in favour of the peace process; one (Zuluaga) was against it, and two (Ramírez and Peñalosa) were moderates on the issue (since the election, Ramírez has come out against the process and Peñalosa in favour). However, after the end of the first round things soon got ugly, petty and personal.

But the important thing here is the first round of voting, which saw Peñalosa flounder from a poll peak of over 30% to a result that was barely over 8%, while Clara López and Marta Lucía both did very well, with around 12% each. Zuluaga managed to upset Santos into victory in the first round (although the second round would see almost every Peñalosa and López supporter switch to Santos, granting him a thin victory).

Santos won every department that I haven't coloured yet except the three southern ones (Boyacá, Santander and Norte de Santander), and won the Atlantic coast by extremely high margins.

(WARNING: THE IMAGE IS HUGE)
FlT6V6T.jpg
 
Thanks! :D
The file is a PNG in my computer. It got turned into a JPEG by imgur.

Also try Dropbox.

You know, when you posted that I had just started working on mapping Colombia's legislative elections. But I couldn't find a detailed enough map so if you have a link to the original image that I can use to make my map it'd be awesome :)

Also, Fedelede, after watching Narcos (I know, I know, not really accurate), and a documentary about Colombia in the 80s where César Gaviria spoke a lot, it seems like the parties in Colombia have/had a weak discipline, since Gaviria seems to have favoured Andrés Pastrana over the candidate from his own party, Samper.
 
Also try Dropbox.

You know, when you posted that I had just started working on mapping Colombia's legislative elections. But I couldn't find a detailed enough map so if you have a link to the original image that I can use to make my map it'd be awesome :)

Also, Fedelede, after watching Narcos (I know, I know, not really accurate), and a documentary about Colombia in the 80s where César Gaviria spoke a lot, it seems like the parties in Colombia have/had a weak discipline, since Gaviria seems to have favoured Andrés Pastrana over the candidate from his own party, Samper.

It's awesome that you're starting on legislative elections! They tell a completely different, far more chaotic story. The file I used is the Wikipedia map for Colombian municipalities , which is in SVG form. I anti-aliased it a bit before using it so watch out for the edges.

As for the party thing, well, kind of. Party discipline does somewhat exist in Colombia since we run by Party list PR and, while we have open lists, the parties generally choose loyal candidates to run. But there's definitely a lot of switching over political expediency. For instance, Álvaro Uribe, our last president, started out Liberal, then became a Conservative, then founded the Party of the U and now is the main opposition to the U. Enrique Peñalosa was the former candidate for the Greens, but in Bogotá's mayoral election he ran with Cambio Radical and the Conservatives. And so on.

The reason why Gaviria supported Pastrana over Samper though is more complicated than that. First of all, Samper's reelection bid was the first time in recent history since anyone wanted to be directly re-elected, and the first time since Rojas Pinilla that anyone even tried to be re-elected. It was anti constitutional and left a sour taste in most people's mouth.

Secondly, Pastrana came to power promising a negotiation with FARC, which is something Gaviria tried in '91 and failed at because of the UP massacre by Escobar. Gaviria is the biggest surrogate for the peace process in Colombia nowadays. The guy is really pro-peace.

Finally, Samper and Pastrana are tied for worst president of Colombia since Laureano Gómez, but we didn't know that about Pastrana back then. Samper rose to power on the back of billions of dollars in donations from the Cali Cartel (something called the Proceso 8000), and was acquitted by a congress deeply tied to drug money. He was inefficient against FARC and permitted the founding of paramilitary organisations. He was extremely corrupt in his dealings. All in all, Liberal or not, for people like Gaviria, the man had to go.
 
I almost forgot to point out; that map is a map of municipalities, which means there's areas where there were 1,500,000 votes and areas where there were 12 votes.
 
I almost forgot to point out; that map is a map of municipalities, which means there's areas where there were 1,500,000 votes and areas where there were 12 votes.

I see the traditions of the metropolis are respected then :p In Spain, the size of a given muncipality can go from the 3 million of Madrid to towns of 5 people and whose run on a concejo abierto model.
 
Remember how I said that I wouldn't have the full map ready for the referendum on Sunday?

Well, I lied. Turns out that 1. Procrastinating does wonderful things to my mapmaking time, and 2. It's not that hard to fill some 400 municipalties when you've already filled out 600. Though Boyacá was ridiculously annoying to fill out. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE 100 MUNICIPALITIES IF YOU'RE POTATO NATION.

Anyways, here's the finished map. You can expect the referendum to go out more or less like this, with red areas going for the peace deal and blue areas against it. (Though not really; we can't say anything about how the plebiscite will go, because polling has been monstruous and I'm pretty sure everyone's trying to steal the election).

Here's the political writeup from before and here's the results:

Óscar Iván Zuluaga (CD) - 3,759,971, 29.25%
Juan Manuel Santos Calderón (PSUN-L-CR) - 3,301,815, 25.69%
Marta Lucía Ramírez (C) - 1,995,698, 15.52%
Clara López Obregón (PDA-UP) - 1,958,414, 15.23%
Enrique Peñalosa (V) - 1,065,142, 8.28%


And the map (this time on Deviantart!):
colombian_presidential_election__2014_by_fed42-dajixk3.png
 
Is there a reason the Conservatives did so well in Cundinamarca?

I was really surprised by that too. I'd expect the Conservatives to have come in more strongly in Antioquia (where to be fair, they did come in second) and the West but definitely not Cundinamarca. Boyacá (which I thought was safely liberal) had the Conservatives as the largest party in the legislative elections (so that explains Boyacá), but in the legislative elections the Conservatives underperformed in both Chamber and Senate in Cundinamarca, and actually did the worst where Marta Lucía did best in these elections. So it's kind of weird.

I'm guessing Marta Lucía did a campaign event from the area, or, since she's from Bogotá, might've had a "favourite child" effect (Peñalosa and Santos are associated exclusively with the high class of Bogotá, and Clara López's secular message didn't resonate in the small towns, while Óscar Iván is from Caldas). That's the closest I can get to an explaination.
 
@Fedelede What are those remaining grey areas in the South? National Parks?

I forgot to mention! Those two municipalities yielded exact ties in their vote count; in the smaller one to the east, Clara López, the blank vote and Óscar Iván Zuluaga tied at 2 votes each, while in the large one to the west, Óscar Iván Zuluaga and Juan Manuel Santos tied at 41 votes each.

National Parks wouldn't appear in this since they're fully integrated into the municipal system, a bit like US counties.
 
I forgot to mention! Those two municipalities yielded exact ties in their vote count; in the smaller one to the east, Clara López, the blank vote and Óscar Iván Zuluaga tied at 2 votes each, while in the large one to the west, Óscar Iván Zuluaga and Juan Manuel Santos tied at 41 votes each.

National Parks wouldn't appear in this since they're fully integrated into the municipal system, a bit like US counties.
...

That is not a populous municipality...
 
...

That is not a populous municipality...

Well, to be fair, turnout there was really depressed. Actually, 23 people were elegible to vote.

But yeah, that technically isn't even a municipality, it's a corregimiento, which is a small township dependant on a larger municipality. It's just that if corregimientos in Amazonas weren't shown everything would be part of Leticia, the only town of appreciable size in the area.

Though yeah, I do think that's the area with the lowest amount of voters in the country.
 
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