How long could Spain hold onto Florida?

Florida was ceded to the US in 1819, as I understand it due to pressure from the US because of runaway slaves finding refuge there. What factors could have led to a longer-lasting Spanish Florida? How long could it plausibly be kept out of US hands?
 
If Britain wins the War of 1812, Spain might be able to hold Florida longer, but I highly doubt it. Spain was pretty well broke from the Napoleonic Wars and Florida was easy dollars for something they knew they couldn't keep. I can see them extracting more cash for it, but them keeping it seems pretty slim unless you butterfly away Napoleon.
 

Deleted member 67076

Gotta prevent the Spanish Empire from falling, or rather, the Napoleonic invasion of Spain that led to the Spanish Empire's collapse.

Otherwise that would mean the Spanish wouldn't have the resources needed to hold on to Florida.
 
Actually, Spain lost its Latin American empire because of crop yields after a volcanic eruption circa 1815. A fellow grad student researched this based on crop yields in California 1750-1850.
 
Worth noting that the majority of the Hispanic Floridians/Floridianos packed up and left for Cuba once they were transferred to Britain in 1763. The English who moved in were primarily Loyalists and all of them more or less left once Spain got the Floridas back come 1783. The area was so relatively empty after these two migrations that the new settlers were Patriot Americans from the newly-independent America: there's a reason the Republic of West Florida was led by Americans, had an English-language anthem, etc.

Basically, whatever else, you can't have Florida be ceded to Britain or else the Spanish population will want to move instead of living under a Protestant power.
 
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