TL-191 WI: Willy Knight Successfully Kills Jake Featherston

[United Republic]

What if Vice President Willy Knight did not fail in his plot to kill Jake Featherston? How would this affect the SGW (if there even is one) and the Confederacy? Is there any possibility of the Confederate States surviving to modern day?

 

[m0585]

There most likely would not have been a war, at least in North America. From what I remember, Willy Knight didn't possess the complete and absolute hatred of the U.S. that Featherston did. He'd most likely continue with rearmament on a smaller scale, and push Al Smith for the 1940 Plebiscites; Al Smith would still agree. Willy Knight serves until 1939 then steps down to pave the way for the next CS President. That's when things could get interesting.

 

[Tiro]

My guess is that even were the December Plot successful then Vice President Knight still has to persuade the Party Convention that (a) he had nothing to do with Featherston's assassination and (b) William Knight is the PERFECT candidate for the Presidency in The Snake's absence; neither task is likely to be easy - my guess is that Koenig would dig and dig until he uncovered the Truth of Knight's role in the plot, which once revealed would almost certainly result in a Civil War between the Western & Eastern branches of the Freedom Party (the old Redemption League splitting off in support of Knight, at the very least - with a Red Rebellion intended to take advantage of this Chaos very probable).

Unless, that is, Knight can discretely rid himself of Ferdinand Koenig (who has a personal loyalty to Featherston, considerable personal power and ambitions all his own); in which case he almost certainly secures his parties nomination for 1939 (and very probably wins the Presidency with an only slightly less ridiculous supermajority than Jake Featherston did, given the Stalwart domination of the Confederacy).

Should William Knight secure the Presidency then I tend to believe he would follow a more Populist and less Totalitarian approach to standard Freedom Party dogma; White Supremacy, Confederate Revanchism and Black Repression - which is to say that he is likely to preach those pillars of Belief without wearying, but put them into practice through Policy only when it profits him to do so (and I definitely agree that he would be less determined to resort to War in the End).

In a nutshell the difference between William Knight and Featherston is roughly equivalent to that between Mussolini and Hitler; the former regard War as one possible means to an end, the latter regard War as an End to be pursued for its own sake (although Featherston more than Herr Hitler in that respect). Which is not to imply that Willy Knight doesn't intend to hold Power in the Confederacy until senility sets in, only that he is far more likely to cloak his absolute power in the trappings of Democracy and more willing to bend to the twists and turns of Public Opinion.

The only question is whether Knight has the strength of Character and force of Personality to hold onto Supreme Power in the Confederacy for as long as he is pleased to do so ... (I can easily see him suffering far greater domestic opposition than the more Intimidating Featherston).

 

[CT23]

So if Knight got elected, the US wouldn't join GW2?

 

[Nivek]

So if Knight got elected, the US wouldn't join GW2?

Financial and moral support since day one till 'britain or japan' do something stupid...

 

[bguy]

Financial and moral support since day one till 'britain or japan' do something stupid...

Germany may not even get that much if the U.S. is still holding a grudge over Germany not helping the U.S. in the Pacific War.

 

[United Republic]

Not sure how long the grudge would hold out for, though. The Germans were the ones who beefed up the U.S. Military, not to mention it seems like the German-American populace is larger than OTL. I could see the two using each other to keep their mutual enemies at bay. The U.S. could enter the SGW in late 1941 or 42 if Britain or Japan try anything with them. The Confederacy might get involved, but it depends on who is in charge. Could it be another Freedomite? It seems hard to picture the Freedom Party surviving without the heart and soul (Featherston) of it. Maybe 1940 is the year the Radical Liberals take the Gray House...

 

[bguy]

Not sure how long the grudge would hold out for, though. The Germans were the ones who beefed up the U.S. Military, not to mention it seems like the German-American populace is larger than OTL.

Yeah, but U.S. good will for the Germans helping to improve the American military was clearly used up by the 1920s (when the two nation's became decidedly cool towards each other). And there doesn't seem to have been any meaningful rapprochement in the 1930s either, so I think the U.S. is very likely to stay out of any European war unless Britain declares war on it.

I could see the two using each other to keep their mutual enemies at bay. The U.S. could enter the SGW in late 1941 or 42 if Britain or Japan try anything with them.

Sure, but why would either Britain or Japan declare war on a U.S. that isn't distracted fighting the Confederacy?

The Confederacy might get involved, but it depends on who is in charge. Could it be another Freedomite? It seems hard to picture the Freedom Party surviving without the heart and soul (Featherston) of it. Maybe 1940 is the year the Radical Liberals take the Gray House...

I don't think there was a meaningful Radical Liberal Party left by 1940. Didn't Featherston jail or kill most of his non-Freedomite political opponents over the course of his first term?

 

[CT23]

What would Knight's foreign policy objectives be? The Radical Liberals wanted somewhat better relations with the US, but didn't all other CSA parties want another shot at the US?

 

[bguy]

What would Knight's foreign policy objectives be? The Radical Liberals wanted somewhat better relations with the US, but didn't all other CSA parties want another shot at the US?

I agree with m0585 (except about Knight stepping down in 1939). I think President Knight would continue to support the secessionist movements in Kentucky, Houston, and Sequoyah while pressing the U.S. for a plebiscite to which Smith will eventually agree. Knight probably abides by the plebiscite's results since he was much more willing to accept half a loaf than Featherston ever was, so there's probably no U.S.-C.S. war. Knight will also presumably honor the Confederate alliance with Britain and France and join in their declaration of war on Germany, and he might even send an expeditionary force to Europe if the U.S. makes it clear it is going to stay neutral. (If nothing else sending a Confederate "Blue" Division would be a good way for him to get a lot of Featherston's most diehard supporters out of the country and thus firm up his own regime.) And if Britain avoids going to war with the U.S. and the Confederates do send troops to Europe then the Entente stands a very good chance of defeating Germany.

 

[VidaLaVida]

I agree with m0585 (except about Knight stepping down in 1939). I think President Knight would continue to support the secessionist movements in Kentucky, Houston, and Sequoyah while pressing the U.S. for a plebiscite to which Smith will eventually agree. Knight probably abides by the plebiscite's results since he was much more willing to accept half a loaf than Featherston ever was, so there's probably no U.S.-C.S. war. Knight will also presumably honor the Confederate alliance with Britain and France and join in their declaration of war on Germany, and he might even send an expeditionary force to Europe if the U.S. makes it clear it is going to stay neutral. (If nothing else sending a Confederate "Blue" Division would be a good way for him to get a lot of Featherston's most diehard supporters out of the country and thus firm up his own regime.) And if Britain avoids going to war with the U.S. and the Confederates do send troops to Europe then the Entente stands a very good chance of defeating Germany.

If that happens, that would be big trouble for the United States. If Germany is neutralized in a contained European war, the U.S. would essentially be right back to where they were in 1881: geopolitically isolated, without any major allies, and encircled by enemies. This time around, the USA would be a much stronger military power than it was in the Second Mexican War, sure. But it would also be stretched thin by the Canadian occupation and the Mormon uprisings.

This would be a strategic coup for Knight's CSA and the Entente: if they wait to have one war at a time, they'd get their revenge on Germany, and then have the opportunity to take down the USA. The Confederacy might still be itching for revenge itself, while the British will be tempted by the chance to liberate Canada. The only ally the US would have would be Quebec, but that wouldn't do much good against the combined power of the CSA, Britain, and, no doubt, Canadian rebels. Japan might get in on the action too, seizing the opportunity to finally snatch away the Sandwich Islands while the United States is fighting for its survival.

Staying neutral would be a great geopolitical blunder on Al Smith's part that, if it happens, would be looked down on for years as one of history's greatest mistakes. Hopefully, Smith would realize that the short-term political approval ratings of keeping the country out of one war would be far outweighed by the need to maintain its long-term survival.

 

[bguy]

If that happens, that would be big trouble for the United States. If Germany is neutralized in a contained European war, the U.S. would essentially be right back to where they were in 1881: geopolitically isolated, without any major allies, and encircled by enemies. This time around, the USA would be a much stronger military power than it was in the Second Mexican War, sure. But it would also be stretched thin by the Canadian occupation and the Mormon uprisings.

This would be a strategic coup for Knight's CSA and the Entente: if they wait to have one war at a time, they'd get their revenge on Germany, and then have the opportunity to take down the USA. The Confederacy might still be itching for revenge itself, while the British will be tempted by the chance to liberate Canada. The only ally the US would have would be Quebec, but that wouldn't do much good against the combined power of the CSA, Britain, and, no doubt, Canadian rebels. Japan might get in on the action too, seizing the opportunity to finally snatch away the Sandwich Islands while the United States is fighting for its survival.

Staying neutral would be a great geopolitical blunder on Al Smith's part that, if it happens, would be looked down on for years as one of history's greatest mistakes. Hopefully, Smith would realize that the short-term political approval ratings of keeping the country out of one war would be far outweighed by the need to maintain its long-term survival.

Maybe, though as long as the U.S. maintains a large navy and air force it will be very difficult for Britain and Japan to project much power into North America. Also it is questionable how long the Entente Powers will stay together once Germany is defeated. In particular Russia, Britain, and Japan all have conflicting interests and if those nations fall out then that will give the U.S. room to diplomatically maneuver. (The U.S. could conceivably ally with Russia against Britain and Japan, with Japan against Britain, or with Britain against Japan, depending on how things shake out.) And of course the Confederates, British, and Japanese all have the same problem the U.S. does in being spread thin holding down restive populations since the Confederates have a very hostile black population while the British and Japanese are each holding down large colonial empires (and the British are also presumably having to help occupy Germany and the Ottoman Empire). But most importantly, the U.S. is still likely to get the atomic bomb sometime in 1944 or 1945 at the latest which will make direct aggression against it pretty much impossible thereafter even if the Confederates and British also have the bomb. (Featherston might have been willing to fight a nuclear war against the U.S., but I don't think Knight is quite that maniacal.)

 

[CT23]

They may not be as close as they used to be, but (just my opinion here), I can't see the US totally letting Germany hang out to dry like that. The US would basically be isolated in that new world order and I don't think they want that again.

 

[Tiro]

It occurs to me that while the Radical Liberals are in pieces after the suppression of Long's Louisiana, a power struggle between the Freedom Party and the Redemption League for control over the Confederacy could allow the Whig Party a new lease on life - given that a brawl in the streets between those backing Knight and Koenig is likely to lower opinions of the Stalwart's ability to govern the Confederacy in the absence of President Featherston, as well as the high probability that it will only be by securing backing from the "Tame" Whigs that one or the other Faction will win the Day.