Recent content by Sam

I like the idea of a Tudor in Milan, but I haven't heard that there was a possibility of Henry marrying Bona Sforza. Cite?

You might extend option three further. If the Etruscans did have a history to parallel the Jews, they might have seen their ancient liturgical language revived as the langauge of a modern homeland.

My understanding is that he would have sailed from Bristol, but that he would have tried to follow much the same route as he did in our history. Whether he would succeed is another matter.

Avert Napoleon's invasion, along with anything comparably traumatic.

@Elfwine: Not seeing how that definition automatically includes all cultural and ideological developments. The cause and effect relationships may be harder to determine, but doesn't make them invisible. Yet another instance of the simulation/thought experiment confusion. :rolleyes:

Depends on the parameters of the thought experiment. If it is "Wilhelm chokes on a sausage immediately after the outbreak of war," then no. If it is "Wilhelm is shot by Annie Oakley in 1889," then yes. In either case, the consequences should be derived from the intial POD, and be at least...

Um. What definition of "butterflies" are you using?

You have it exactly backwards. The whole point of a counter-factual thought experiment is to untangle causality. Which means focusing on observable causal relationships. Adding confounding factors in the form of random changes interferes with that, and undermines the goal of the exercise. In...

Why do you think butterflies make a timeline more interesting and/or more informative? Why not stick to logical extrapolation (with ocassional fudge factors)? And if you want to make shit up in order to spice things up, why not admit it? Why hide behind a spurious claim of "realism"?

Um. Yes? The different political environment of the 1930s is a direct consequence of the last thousand years or so of divergent history. Butterflies are irrelevant. Which is why butterflies make useful AH impossible. If you allow unmeasurable factors to overrule observed causal...

The absence of Hitler in the vast majority of "Super-Mega British Empire Triumphant!!!!" timelines is simply a logical and predictable outcome of the different course of history. Invoking butterflies is simply pointless.

Almost everyone here is making the basic error of confusing a literary exercise with a realistic simulation. The fact that butterflies would exist in a real alternate timeline isn't relevant. The only question is whether their incorporation makes things either more interesting or more...

I wrot a short essay on this topic. Short version: Butterflies are a really dumb trope, and should be abandoned.

What immense drain of resources? Between the mid-seventies and mid-eighties, Soviet military spending grew at a constant rate of about one percent per year. The American arms buildup had virtually no impact on the Soviet economy, which collapsed for largely internal reasons.

Might these two events end up linked? The Eastern half ends up compomising with the Monophysites, the Western backs the Pope?