In the spirit of those "how badly would the Germans suffer if they attempted Sealion" threads, I ask this question. For whatever reason, let's say that either the Germans avoid the Battle of Crete or manage to pull it off with relatively few casualties, leading Hitler to issue the green light on an airborne assault against Malta. What sort of projected casualties are we looking at in such an event?
Just how badly would a German airborne assault on Malta fare?
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When though? If you mean operation Herkules (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules)
then it would be in 1942 after Malta had recovered from existing in a state of precarious survival in 1940-1, but the Axis could still achieve air supremacy and bomb the island at will with enough commitment of airpower, which any invasion would be guaranteed.
The Axis had a major advantage in that aircraft were 90 miles from Malta in Sicily and could launch 4 sortees a day for transports and probably more for fighters/bombers. The Axis had two airborne divisions, one German one Italian, plus Italian marines and naval commandos, beach assault tanks, local naval superiority, which means naval fire support, and control of the air, plus total awareness of island defenses. The Germans had worked with the Italians to develop special landing craft, which gave the proper naval assault capabilities.
I think the Axis could have pulled it off with fewer losses than the Crete invasion. Probably less than 5000 IMHO.
But also without Crete the invasion of Malta could occur in 1941 when Malta was less well defended and pretty well suppress by Axis airpower. So that would be even more favorable even without Italian paratroopers. Then loss would probably be no more than 4000 if that.
And we get butterflies related to Africa too. Assuming Herkules happens in 1942, then Rommel doesn't invade Egypt, because Axis airpower is needed to support the Malta invasion.
If the invasion is in 1941 then by 1942 Rommel still invades Egypt, but without the threat of Malta interdicting his supplies. Its difficult to say exactly how much more would get through, but it would not be enough for Rommel to win in Egypt. Still, he would have a much better time handling the Allied counter attack, as much more would get through to him supply-wise and the Axis could/would put up a better fight in Africa in 1943.
February 1941 Malta gariison got reinforced by 2 additional battalions mainly to cover the airfields. Malta in 1941 could probably have beaten off a German airborne only assault plus what ever improvised seaborne amatuerish Italian effort. There isn't too many windows of time before Barbarossa to commit the airborne forces and late 41 there wasn't as much Luftwaffe around (the British were able to base a cruiser squadron on the island).
the 1942 effort would have probably worked, the sea borne invasion effort would have been more serious and the Allies would be hard pressed to mount a serious naval response with all their other commitments in July 1942.
Probably the best thing to do is once the Germans figure out Sea Lion aint happening, transfer significant air units, the paratroopers, crash build a few siebel ferries in Italian ports and invade in late 40 (if Mussolini can be convinced to let you). Ship over to Africa a few battalions of 88 mm guns and some Stukas and ME109s to make the British nervous about attacking Sidi Barrani in December and hold this as a blocking position all through Barbarossa.
the 1942 effort would have probably worked, the sea borne invasion effort would have been more serious and the Allies would be hard pressed to mount a serious naval response with all their other commitments in July 1942.
Probably the best thing to do is once the Germans figure out Sea Lion aint happening, transfer significant air units, the paratroopers, crash build a few siebel ferries in Italian ports and invade in late 40 (if Mussolini can be convinced to let you). Ship over to Africa a few battalions of 88 mm guns and some Stukas and ME109s to make the British nervous about attacking Sidi Barrani in December and hold this as a blocking position all through Barbarossa.
In 1940 the defenses on the Island are weak to say the least. Summer 1940 there is no air units at all. There is a garrison that latter becomes the Malta Brigade and the artillery / coast defense. Any time in 1940 the German / Italians could take the Island if they wanted to put the effort in.
Michael
Michael
BlairWitch749
Banned
the fallschrimjaegers would do fairly well (certainly better than crete) stukas could hit targets 6 times a day and bombers and other aircraft would loiter over the island stopping the british from assembling for any counter attacks
and unlike crete the germans will have armor as the italians were going to land two regiments of captured bt-7's on which they had been heavily trained
and unlike crete the germans will have armor as the italians were going to land two regiments of captured bt-7's on which they had been heavily trained
The use of the BT7 is interesting, the light 13.5 ton weight with a decent sized 45mm gun must have be useful in a sea landing (lighter than a panzer 3, better gunned than a panzer 2, faster than both).
The Germans must have captured some numbers of these. You would think they would have given more to the Italians as M13/40 replacements in the desert or maybe some to their allies on the east front.
The obvious question I have is, how do you persuade Hitler & OKH of the need for it? Especially since, OTL, they were perfectly happy to rely on airpower to suppress the island.
If you do manage to get an OK, I'm seeing the proposed Luftwaffe attack against the Baku oilfields (don't recall where I saw this, tho
) going ahead, & succeeding. Yes, it would deny oil to Germany; it would also deny it to SU, which is a good thing for Germany. (Does it shift the emphasis away from actually capturing Stalingrad?)
If you do manage to get an OK, I'm seeing the proposed Luftwaffe attack against the Baku oilfields (don't recall where I saw this, tho
) going ahead, & succeeding. Yes, it would deny oil to Germany; it would also deny it to SU, which is a good thing for Germany. (Does it shift the emphasis away from actually capturing Stalingrad?)
Arrow 50
Banned
Flying assault Panzers, Nazi Flying Assault Panzers.
The Germans could try the same as the Russians.
OOOOOMMMMMMGGGG!!!!!!
I doubt the attack would come before August '41, up until then (or up until July anyway, plus the time to get everything ready) generally more than 90% of the material had gotten through according to wikipedia, but in July that dropped to just over 80%, rose to about 8% in August, then dropped to about 70% in September.