Anglo-German Alliance

[Alratan]

Hmmm...

Probably advanced in AGA
Less so in DAGA
Maybe least in PAG?

I'd say more like DAGA, AGA, PAG. Vast amounts more will be spent on the navy in DAGA than AGA, so more will inevitably end up in subs and carriers. In DAGA we are, as I say, more likely to see the British go for land based anti-shipping aircraft, and the Americans for carriers,

As a side note, in the DAGA we are likely to see the British go for a German tyle Universal male conscription feeding into a Territorial Army scheme, with everyone doing two years compulsory National Service military training. This could turn out to be a very good way of introducing improved technical education, if this scheme was used as a feeder for the technical colleges for the particularly talented working class, as well as feeding the Regular Volunteer Army, and feeding a reserve Territorial Army.

 

[Glen]

I'd say more like DAGA, AGA, PAG. Vast amounts more will be spent on the navy in DAGA than AGA, so more will inevitably end up in subs and carriers. In DAGA we are, as I say, more likely to see the British go for land based anti-shipping aircraft, and the Americans for carriers,

Not necessarily. The naval limits in AGA may make the British THINK more about what will work and how to get the biggest bang from their fleet.

Whereas in DAGA, the emphasis will be numbers, so they may stick with older designs and older doctrine in order to facilitate churning out more ships.

 

[Alratan]

Not necessarily. The naval limits in AGA may make the British THINK more about what will work and how to get the biggest bang from their fleet.

Whereas in DAGA, the emphasis will be numbers, so they may stick with older designs and older doctrine in order to facilitate churning out more ships.

True, I suppose. I do think that if someone else starts innovating, the British will pick up on it.

 

[Nick Sumner]

Hullo everyone, this is my first post here.

This is a fascinating scenario, to which I'd just like to add a couple of thoughts if I may.

there was a question as to whether tanks (AFVs) would be delayed in appearing in TTL? I strongly doubt this as the 1904-6 war would reinforce ideas already widely diseminated notably by Ivan Bloch but also by many others.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Bloch

The first workable ideas for tanks appeared in OTL 1911 and 1912

http://www.landships.freeservers.com/burstyn_tank.htm

http://www.doppeladler.com/kuk/burstyn.htm

http://www.slsa.sa.gov.au/saatwar/collection/PRG1319_1_1.htm

It seems possible that in TTL they may appear earlier.

A random, perhaps macabre thought, if a railway is built across the Congo, what are the chances of humanity stumbling across ebola earlier?

 

[Glen]

Hullo everyone, this is my first post here.

This is a fascinating scenario, to which I'd just like to add a couple of thoughts if I may.

there was a question as to whether tanks (AFVs) would be delayed in appearing in TTL? I strongly doubt this as the 1904-6 war would reinforce ideas already widely diseminated notably by Ivan Bloch but also by many others.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Bloch

The first workable ideas for tanks appeared in OTL 1911 and 1912

http://www.landships.freeservers.com/burstyn_tank.htm

http://www.doppeladler.com/kuk/burstyn.htm

http://www.slsa.sa.gov.au/saatwar/collection/PRG1319_1_1.htm

It seems possible that in TTL they may appear earlier.

Possible, but the fact that the war went so quickly compared to OTL probably won't be conducive to developing the idea.

A random, perhaps macabre thought, if a railway is built across the Congo, what are the chances of humanity stumbling across ebola earlier?

Poor. Ebola probably only jumped species recently. And while we might run into other nasties in there, they probably won't get far due to short incubation and high lethality.

Big exception to this might be HIV...

 

[Alratan]

Big exception to this might be HIV...

HIV probably jumped species in Cameron during the 20th century. As cross species transmission is unlikely, and their are direct consequences of the POD manifesting in this era at the start of the 20th century, this will probably be butterflied away.

 

[Glen]

HIV probably jumped species in Cameron during the 20th century. As cross species transmission is unlikely, and their are direct consequences of the POD manifesting in this era at the start of the 20th century, this will probably be butterflied away.

The big exception part I meant is the lack of immediate lethality of HIV. That allows it to spread widely since it doesn't kill the carriers.

If it makes the jump, then it will spread. I agree that whether it will or not in the 20th century is an open question.

 

[Alratan]

The big exception part I meant is the lack of immediate lethality of HIV. That allows it to spread widely since it doesn't kill the carriers.

If it makes the jump, then it will spread. I agree that whether it will or not in the 20th century is an open question.

Actually the latter is an interesting question. Some quite thought-provoking work on the sociology of the beginning of the epidemic have been done, about how it was contingent upon the massive social disruption and break down of traditional norms in that part of Africa post WW II (promiscuity, basically).

 

[Glen]

Actually the latter is an interesting question. Some quite thought-provoking work on the sociology of the beginning of the epidemic have been done, about how it was contingent upon the massive social disruption and break down of traditional norms in that part of Africa post WW II (promiscuity, basically).

That's not likely to happen ITTL or in the PAG timeline, IMO.

Perhaps fittingly, it is likely to happen in the DAGA timeline....

 

[Alratan]

To totally change the subject, Xianjiang, is quite likely to break away from China during the 2nd Revolution, forimg an East Turkmenistan. The British will probably be very interested in giving the governor an offer he can't refuse - in OTL it took a long time for the PRC to recover it, as a way of securing Tibet. This area is particularly difficult for the Han majority to control, and if Manchuria breaks away, the locals are likely to take it as an example.

 

[Glen]

To totally change the subject, Xianjiang, is quite likely to break away from China during the 2nd Revolution, forimg an East Turkmenistan. The British will probably be very interested in giving the governor an offer he can't refuse - in OTL it took a long time for the PRC to recover it, as a way of securing Tibet. This area is particularly difficult for the Han majority to control, and if Manchuria breaks away, the locals are likely to take it as an example.

I think not. The governor of the time of the Second Revolution held to China and stayed in power to 1928 IOTL. By that time, the Republic of China will be on much firmer ground, making a revolution unlikely.

 

[Alratan]

I think not. The governor of the time of the Second Revolution held to China and stayed in power to 1928 IOTL. By that time, the Republic of China will be on much firmer ground, making a revolution unlikely.

That's true, but it's very unlikely that we'll end up with the same governor 13 years after the POD. The power struggle when the Qing governor fled could have gone another way. The main advantage of this, for a peaceful but interesting timeline, is that it is another venue for a continuing Great Game, whilst providing a buffer between the Great Powers, in the tadition of Afganistan.

 

[Glen]

That's true, but it's very unlikely that we'll end up with the same governor 13 years after the POD. The power struggle when the Qing governor fled could have gone another way. The main advantage of this, for a peaceful but interesting timeline, is that it is another venue for a continuing Great Game, whilst providing a buffer between the Great Powers, in the tadition of Afganistan.

Alratan, I've stated this family of timelines is 'butterfly resistant' so that changes should overall be related to the POD.

While rather comprehensive changes have swept the world overall, there's none that would negate who the governor of Xianjiang is in 1913 (twelve years btw, not 13).

And the Great Game is effectively dead in AGA. In PAG on the other hand it is very much alive...

 

[Alratan]

Fair enough. How butterfly resistant though. HIV, for example, would have started after the following sequence of events:

A bushmeat hunter kills a particular chimp with a particular strain of SIV.

Whilst butchering the animal he gets a cut on his hands and gets blood-blood infection.

A mutation permitting trans-species infection occurs in him,

This man happens to be serially unfaithful to his wife.

That's pretty unlikely.

Moving on, and limiting myself to direct consequences of the POD.

For a whole heap of reasons, we are likely to see a significantly eariler petroleum economy, including plastics. This will probably lead to the presence of significantly more Indian Muslims in Arabia, as the British need significant numbers of semi-skilled workers to build the oil infrastructure. This is particularly true when (if) we see the construction of a Cape-Calcutta railway link, as we will also see a significant number of Indian Muslims going on the Hajj.

This early development of the petroleum industry is likely to inspire significant banditry/rebellion among the less Westernised "tribes". If the British have any sense they would be well advised to use Muslim Indian Army regiments against the rebels, and to use the same lot to police the Islamic Holy Cities.

I assume the Anglo-Persian Oil Company will be founded as per OTL, although it might be delayed by the war, the goundwork was layed in the 1901-1905 period. This will probably be joined by an Anglo-Arabian Oil Comany some time in the mid 1910s. With any luck, these will be pioneers in the British chemicals industry, provding ready made employers for the new stream of chemists and engineers coming from Britain's new polytechniques, as well as providing an eariler than OTL model of dedicated corporate research labs, which came late to Britain.

 

[Glen]

Fair enough. How butterfly resistant though. HIV, for example, would have started after the following sequence of events:

A bushmeat hunter kills a particular chimp with a particular strain of SIV.

Whilst butchering the animal he gets a cut on his hands and gets blood-blood infection.

A mutation permitting trans-species infection occurs in him,

This man happens to be serially unfaithful to his wife.

That's pretty unlikely.

Well, if HIV-1 and HIV-2 jumped from different species of primates to humans, then it seems it was already ready to make the jump.

But then again, HIV-2 is not nearly as effective as HIV-1 in spreading, so its quite likely that while we'd probably see an HIV-like virus in the latter half of the 20th century, it could be a localized phenomenon rather than a global pandemic.

Earlier industrialization in Western Africa is likely ITTL, as well as a bit more 'Westernization' both of which may lead to less favorable environment for the HIV virus to jump.

Moving on, and limiting myself to direct consequences of the POD.

For a whole heap of reasons, we are likely to see a significantly eariler petroleum economy, including plastics. This will probably lead to the presence of significantly more Indian Muslims in Arabia, as the British need significant numbers of semi-skilled workers to build the oil infrastructure. This is particularly true when (if) we see the construction of a Cape-Calcutta railway link, as we will also see a significant number of Indian Muslims going on the Hajj.

This early development of the petroleum industry is likely to inspire significant banditry/rebellion among the less Westernised "tribes". If the British have any sense they would be well advised to use Muslim Indian Army regiments against the rebels, and to use the same lot to police the Islamic Holy Cities.

I assume the Anglo-Persian Oil Company will be founded as per OTL, although it might be delayed by the war, the goundwork was layed in the 1901-1905 period. This will probably be joined by an Anglo-Arabian Oil Comany some time in the mid 1910s. With any luck, these will be pioneers in the British chemicals industry, provding ready made employers for the new stream of chemists and engineers coming from Britain's new polytechniques, as well as providing an eariler than OTL model of dedicated corporate research labs, which came late to Britain.

All pretty true and pretty likely.

 

[Glen]

How are you having rapid property reform without major civil war?

Moderate reform.

Without this, these aristocrats are going to be immensely powerful land owners on the South American model. As mechanisation of agriculature, and Russia becomes a major food exporter, most of its foregin income will be earnt by them, and they are going to become tremendously wealthy.

True, but there will also be a trickle down effect, as well as a burgeoning middle class.

It may be a republic, with real(ish) democracy, but these men/families are going to be incredibly influential. It would be a democracy on the model of Argentina in this era, rather than the US.

Oh, this I agree with, at least for the early decades.

You may gradually evolve to a more democratic situation without major disruption, but it will take decades.

Which they may very well get ITTL.

 

[Alratan]

True, but there will also be a trickle down effect, as well as a burgeoning middle class.

Trickle down dosen't really work in this situation, as exporting grain dosen't really require amuch profesional involvement. It requires capital and semi-skilled labour.

The middle clas, if it does grow, will be built totally speratly to the agricultural land owners - it will be the managment of the growing uurban industries that forms it.

Thinking about the effects of continuing fee trade, and the types of technology that will be accelerated by the additional wealth and people.

The biggest one is containerisation. Cairo, as terminus of two major rail lines is going to be an immensely busy port, and the other ports in the Empire and Britain will be immensely busy and overcrowded. This makes Britain the natural place forfr this too be developed.

Late's say then, that some bright spark working for CtCaAR (Cape-to-Cairo and Associated Railways) invents containerisation in 1926, as the problems for transferring from the trains to the ships are becoming significant and expensive. This catches the imagination of someone senior in the company, and he pushes it, both within the company, and to his friends in CtSHR (Cairo to Singapore and Hanoi Railways). They have contacts and investments in shipping companies, and the ball starts rolling. The most important proves to be the owner of the Tilbury docks.

Containerisation becomes standard on both railways by 1930, and Tilbury grows massively to become the new Port of London, serving the massive and growing London-Cairo trade. This will be associated with industrial disturbances, as the dockers were notoriously militant, but Tilbury is mostly a new development, and the other unions' members are too content to come out in support. The resulting crash in the cost of shipping (by a factor of 40) is seen by other shipping companies, and containerisation gradually becomes the norm, over the next decade. The Germans embrace it enthusiastically.

This will give free trade, and the economy in general, a massive boost. Most importantly, outsourcing now becomes viable. By the end of the 1930s, Britian should have shifted into an economy based on skilled labour, thanks to the education programs. Unskilled labour will be becoming very expensive in relation to their output, and so all the conditions are met. If India is still peaceful, and Diarchy has been a successful model, we are likely to see a significant number of unskilled jobs leaving Britain and going there. If this happens during an economic upswing, possibly the upswing that will come after the downturn associated with the disruption caused by containerisation, it should be possible to do without too many protests.

This will further increaes economic growth, particualry in India and Egypt. Cairo in particualr will be become the center of a triangular trade:

Raw-material

Congo->Cairo->India,

Low skilled industrial produciton, textiles, etc

India->Cairo->Britain

High skilledly goods, machine tools, factory equipment

Britain->Cairo-> India

 

[Glen]

Trickle down dosen't really work in this situation, as exporting grain dosen't really require amuch profesional involvement. It requires capital and semi-skilled labour.

The middle clas, if it does grow, will be built totally speratly to the agricultural land owners - it will be the managment of the growing uurban industries that forms it.

True, but they are going to have money to spend, and money to invest, from that agriculture. Which is a recipe for building up industry and a middle class.

If you will, consider the Russian aristocracy like the Junkers in Germany.

Thinking about the effects of continuing fee trade, and the types of technology that will be accelerated by the additional wealth and people.

The biggest one is containerisation. Cairo, as terminus of two major rail lines is going to be an immensely busy port, and the other ports in the Empire and Britain will be immensely busy and overcrowded. This makes Britain the natural place forfr this too be developed.

Late's say then, that some bright spark working for CtCaAR (Cape-to-Cairo and Associated Railways) invents containerisation in 1926, as the problems for transferring from the trains to the ships are becoming significant and expensive. This catches the imagination of someone senior in the company, and he pushes it, both within the company, and to his friends in CtSHR (Cairo to Singapore and Hanoi Railways). They have contacts and investments in shipping companies, and the ball starts rolling. The most important proves to be the owner of the Tilbury docks.

Containerisation becomes standard on both railways by 1930, and Tilbury grows massively to become the new Port of London, serving the massive and growing London-Cairo trade. This will be associated with industrial disturbances, as the dockers were notoriously militant, but Tilbury is mostly a new development, and the other unions' members are too content to come out in support. The resulting crash in the cost of shipping (by a factor of 40) is seen by other shipping companies, and containerisation gradually becomes the norm, over the next decade. The Germans embrace it enthusiastically.

This will give free trade, and the economy in general, a massive boost. Most importantly, outsourcing now becomes viable. By the end of the 1930s, Britian should have shifted into an economy based on skilled labour, thanks to the education programs. Unskilled labour will be becoming very expensive in relation to their output, and so all the conditions are met. If India is still peaceful, and Diarchy has been a successful model, we are likely to see a significant number of unskilled jobs leaving Britain and going there. If this happens during an economic upswing, possibly the upswing that will come after the downturn associated with the disruption caused by containerisation, it should be possible to do without too many protests.

This will further increaes economic growth, particualry in India and Egypt. Cairo in particualr will be become the center of a triangular trade:

Raw-material

Congo->Cairo->India,

Low skilled industrial produciton, textiles, etc

India->Cairo->Britain

High skilledly goods, machine tools, factory equipment

Britain->Cairo-> India

Very interesting analysis. When was containerization developed IOTL? I tend to agree with this part, though.

 

[Alratan]

True, but they are going to have money to spend, and money to invest, from that agriculture. Which is a recipe for building up industry and a middle class.

If you will, consider the Russian aristocracy like the Junkers in Germany.

I don't know enough to say whether the Junkers did this, or whether, like other historical landowners, they tended to reinvest in agriculture as it gave bigger returns. Remember, the Grand Dukes have all of Siberia and the East to invest in

Very interesting analysis. When was containerization developed IOTL? I tend to agree with this part, though.

Depends. Started on the railways in 1936ish, and then in 1956 the first shipping contaners were used. It was mainly someone havign abright idea, and international trade icking up to the point of it being viable again. It was quite feasible for it to have been invented in OTL 1920s/30s, just noone thought of it/saw the potential. In this ATL, it's very possible, indeed, one of the likeliest things to be accelerated, particularly given the existance of a couple of very major transport companies with the resources to invest and a very strong interest in seeing one particualr bootlneck (Cairo) opened.

 

[Glen]

Nuclear power will develop ITTL close to OTL I suppose. One might argue for it developing a bit earlier.

I'm leaning towards nuclear weapons being slow to develop, however.