Prussia never joins Germany
- Thread starter Kneze
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Susano
Banned
The thread name is a bit misleading. Prussia never "joined" Germany. Though, its possible that Prussia stays out of the German unifcation process, as a reverse of the OTL situation: IOTL, Prussia beat Austria and hence gained hegemony in Germany. The result was a Prussia-led Germany without Austria. So, if Austria wins and united Germany, we might see an Austria-led Germany without Prussia. Of course, if Austria wins 1866 most likely there would be no unfication ata ll, at least not for some decades, so something would have to change in order to remedy that, as well...
If no Prussian drive for unification then no unification. None of the other nation/states could have forged the empire as Prussia did.
Nothing much else changes, except Princess Victoria becomes Queen of Prussia rather than Empress of Germany and WW I becomes known as the 1st Bulkan War.
Nothing much else changes, except Princess Victoria becomes Queen of Prussia rather than Empress of Germany and WW I becomes known as the 1st Bulkan War.
Susano
Banned
That really is Prussia mythifying nonsense. Austria could have as well - hell, anybody could have, wed just have to find an impetus for them to do so. Austria for example was quite content with ruling its territories outside teh German Confederation, while dominating the German Confederation, but having it stay as collection of independant states. However, had they wished, they could have pushed as wellf or an Austria-dominated Empire as Prussia (well, Bismarck, really) did for a Prussia-dominated Empire.
What of the 1848 revolution that swept over Europe and the Frankfurter parliament? A German state based on the Frankfurter parliament would have been a much more liberal state and different to Juncker Prussia that uniting them becomes quite a challenge.
Off course, the Frankfurters had nowhere near the military power that they would have probably needed.
Off course, the Frankfurters had nowhere near the military power that they would have probably needed.
Absolutely true.
True. However, Austrians would have a harder day to do so - also internally, since most of their subjects wouldn't be quite happy to join a German Empire...
And then: Prussia lies WITHIN Germany, whereas Austria is on the edge. Thus Austria uniting Germany requires annexations of Prussian territories - at least the Rhineland and Westphalia (which probably would be quite enthusiastic becoming part of a more liberal, more catholic empire).
67th Tigers
Banned
Perhaps a joining of the North and South German Confederations without Prussia is possible? If this is post-1866, then Prussia has effectively annexed North German Confederation already, and maybe Austria may try and persuede Southern Germany to stay out of the Franco-Prussian War, or even to join Austria fighting alongside the French against Prussia-North Germany?
Perhaps if successful a West German state of "Germany" would be unified as a counterbalance to Austria and Prussia?
Perhaps if successful a West German state of "Germany" would be unified as a counterbalance to Austria and Prussia?
67th Tigers
Banned
(from Wikipedia)
I'm thinking Hanover, the Hessian states, Rhineland, Westfalen, Baden, Bavaria and Wurttemburg, and maybe Saxony would form "Germany"?
Valdemar II
Banned
What about Prussia invade Hannover and a bunch of other minor German states earlier and the southen part of the rest joins together in a South German Confederation (Bund), which later joins Austria after a Austrian-French War and we end up with something like this .
Yellow is Germany and Grey is Prussia
Yellow is Germany and Grey is Prussia
It would be the return of the big white blob (tm)!
No really, aside from Switzerland that is not that implausible. However, as soon as one of the two parties attempts to unify Germany in earnest, it might break up and form something like OTL's German Empire (depending on how important religion is over nationality).
That said, if Austria got her way the German Confederation would over time move into a federation (they attempted to do so in 1850). I find this outcome to be underdeveloped and -explored.
Valdemar II
Banned
I threw Switzerland in because I hate the cliche of it always surviving. But I made it part of Austria as part of buffing Austria up with a few military triumphs, to make it look like a reasonal alternative to Prussia.
The War of the Erfurt Union
Say Frederick William IV remains under the influcence of Radowitz and doesn't back down to Austria on the Schleswig question. Prussian forces are diverted by the mobilization of an army of observation by the Russians and Austrian and allied forces are able to win a victory.
Say Frederick William IV remains under the influcence of Radowitz and doesn't back down to Austria on the Schleswig question. Prussian forces are diverted by the mobilization of an army of observation by the Russians and Austrian and allied forces are able to win a victory.
Faeelin
Banned
Here's a thought. Prussia loses in 1866 to Austria; France keeps Austria from annexing vast swathes of Germany, although IMO this was never in the cards. Although France is quite happy with breaking off the Rhineland.
Yet Zollverain is still there. The economic impetus towards the formation of a German market will still be there.
Germany formed via an economic union?
Susano
Banned
As I have written in the Disunited Germany Cliche entry in the wiki, TLs with disunited Germanies fail to see how nationalism and demcoracy were related, and OTOH how authoritarism and particularism were connected. IOTL, Prussia had the whip hand, and could in the end force all German states except Austria, Luxemburg and Liechtenstein into an union dominated by itself at leats that was the plan, even though it didnt work out). But without such a power, every petty monarch would be loath to let go of his authority.
Slower Less Centralized Unification
I also think non-unification is a cliche but unification could take longer in certain cases such as Prussia losing the Austro-Prussian or Franco-Prussian Wars. But still neither Austria nor France are going to conquer Prussia, only fight to a stalemate and forestall unification, maybe by a couple of decades.
Austria wins 1866: Bismarck falls. Schleswig-Holstein goes to the Duke of Augustenburg. Hanover and the rest of the German states retain their sovereignty, Austria attains some form of economic union with the rest of Germany. Austria and Prussia ultimately begin to cooperate in order to compete with France, Russia and Britain and form some kind of federation with the executive branch in their hands jointly. Hungary achieves autonomy in this process.
France wins 1870: Bismark falls. France's purchase of Luxembourg goes through. The North German Conferderation stands but cedes the Saar to France. The South German States retain their independent international existenses. Ultimately though they will again try to federate with Prussia. Perhaps Austria-Hungary will be brought into the fold as an ally and trading partner. Maybe all this will spur another war with France or depending upon the regime it will be allowed to happen peacefully.
I also think non-unification is a cliche but unification could take longer in certain cases such as Prussia losing the Austro-Prussian or Franco-Prussian Wars. But still neither Austria nor France are going to conquer Prussia, only fight to a stalemate and forestall unification, maybe by a couple of decades.
Austria wins 1866: Bismarck falls. Schleswig-Holstein goes to the Duke of Augustenburg. Hanover and the rest of the German states retain their sovereignty, Austria attains some form of economic union with the rest of Germany. Austria and Prussia ultimately begin to cooperate in order to compete with France, Russia and Britain and form some kind of federation with the executive branch in their hands jointly. Hungary achieves autonomy in this process.
France wins 1870: Bismark falls. France's purchase of Luxembourg goes through. The North German Conferderation stands but cedes the Saar to France. The South German States retain their independent international existenses. Ultimately though they will again try to federate with Prussia. Perhaps Austria-Hungary will be brought into the fold as an ally and trading partner. Maybe all this will spur another war with France or depending upon the regime it will be allowed to happen peacefully.
Susano
Banned
The problem with Prussia losing 1866 are the French plans. Napoleon III thought, like most the world, that the Austrians would win, and his plan was to then intervene and "save" Prussia - in return for the Rhine Border. Of course, if Austria is clever, it will push through a quick peace with no other demands than independant Schleswig-Holstein and restoration of the German Confederation - a quick peace just as Bismarck did IOTL would like IOTL robthe French the chance to intervene.
Agreed
Yes I think all Austria could do is force a stalemate and see what kind of deal it could get from Prussia to end hostilites. I think Prussia would rather an easy peace with Austria than to be "saved" by France. Do you think in light of being stymied, Prussia might be amenable to collaboration with Austria going forward? What forms could that collaboration take? Or would Prussia bide its time and try to act unilateraly in the future?
Yes I think all Austria could do is force a stalemate and see what kind of deal it could get from Prussia to end hostilites. I think Prussia would rather an easy peace with Austria than to be "saved" by France. Do you think in light of being stymied, Prussia might be amenable to collaboration with Austria going forward? What forms could that collaboration take? Or would Prussia bide its time and try to act unilateraly in the future?
Redbeard
Banned
It appears like an important reason behind Bavaria leaving Napoleon in 1813 was ambitions to play an important role in post war Germany.
So, what if, Napoleon actually is defeated (killed or taken prisoner) at Hanau in late October 1813 by the Bavarian-Austrian Army under Wrede he met there? (NB: Hanau is splendid to wargame, has a lot of interesting options - and colourful troops).
By the late Napoleonic wars Bavaria had a relatively very strong economy, being able to on her own fielding 40.000 well-equipped men in 1813 and 55.000 in 1815, and apparently also had their own bid for "the German spirit" rivalling that of Prussia.
With the Napleonic wars ending in late 1813 by Bavarian-Austrian action, the British and Prussian roles will also be smaller (sans 1814 and Waterloo) and the Prussians will be unlikely to gain all the rich territories she did in OTL 1815.
With that, and the Bavarians feeling themselves masters of Germany (and perhaps later the Universe ), a Prussian led unification of Germany is very unlikely.
The Bavarians and Austrians will still have some serious unsettled business, but no mater what the outcome is, the result is likley to be a relatively loose German confederation, with or without Prussia and a number of north German protestant states. If the Prussians and/or north Germans feel too pressed, the religious factor may become important (Protestants vs. Catholics) making a coherrent unified Germany even more impossible.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard
So, what if, Napoleon actually is defeated (killed or taken prisoner) at Hanau in late October 1813 by the Bavarian-Austrian Army under Wrede he met there? (NB: Hanau is splendid to wargame, has a lot of interesting options - and colourful troops).
By the late Napoleonic wars Bavaria had a relatively very strong economy, being able to on her own fielding 40.000 well-equipped men in 1813 and 55.000 in 1815, and apparently also had their own bid for "the German spirit" rivalling that of Prussia.
With the Napleonic wars ending in late 1813 by Bavarian-Austrian action, the British and Prussian roles will also be smaller (sans 1814 and Waterloo) and the Prussians will be unlikely to gain all the rich territories she did in OTL 1815.
With that, and the Bavarians feeling themselves masters of Germany (and perhaps later the Universe
), a Prussian led unification of Germany is very unlikely. The Bavarians and Austrians will still have some serious unsettled business, but no mater what the outcome is, the result is likley to be a relatively loose German confederation, with or without Prussia and a number of north German protestant states. If the Prussians and/or north Germans feel too pressed, the religious factor may become important (Protestants vs. Catholics) making a coherrent unified Germany even more impossible.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard