Russo-German alliance

"The League of Three Emperors disintegrated as a result of Russia's dissatisfaction with the Congress of Berlin (1878). The League was resurrected in 1881 after Bismarck secretly persuaded Russia to rejoin, without Austria-Hungary's acknowledgment. After Bismark's dismissal in 1890, the new German Chancellor Caprivi rejected Russia's proposal to renew the conditions of the League of Three Emperors (the Reinsurrance treaty), much to the disappointment of the Russian Foreign Minister and a retired Bismarck. Russia, now isolated, would eventually seek an alliance with France to counter the threat of the Dual Alliance of Germany and Austria-Hungary."

What if the Germans ditch Austro-Hungary in favour of Russia instead of the other way around? The alliances in WW1 will obviously be different. The Germans and Russians will probably ally themselves with Italy against the Austrians. They'll promise the Italians that they'll get Istria and Dalmatia. The French might ally themselves with the Austrians and Ottomans and later the English. WW1 will be very interesting:

France,Austro-Hungarian Empire,Ottoman Empire,UK,Japan vs Germany, Russia and Italy (and maybe Serbia, Romania and Greece. They have a lot to gain)

What are your thoughts on this? Is this possible? What will Germany do in the Russo-Japanese war assuming that it still happens when it did IOTL. Will Russia be a better ally for Germany than Austro-Hungary and the Ottomans?

A-H is going to be crushed from 3 sides pretty soon, regarding its internal struggles and general weak performances of its armies in WWI.

After that it's trench warfare in France again, except the fact that there's alpine fighting along the french-italian border rather than the austrian-italian border.

And we may very well see a Russian Expeditionary Force (R.E.F.) fighting alongside with German and Italian comrades.

That would be weird.

Do you think the Central Powers would win? I admit that the Russian army was better than the armies of the Ottomans and the Austrians but it wasn't that good. The Germans were beating the crap out of them IOTL and they weren't even trying. Luckily the Germans aren't stupid. They'll at least try to modernize the Russian (and Italian) armed forces.

Russia will have to face Japan in the east (again). I guess the Russians will have to use their famous old strategy again: scorched earth. Siberia is big and empty anyway. The lack of infrastructure and the freezing winters won't do the Japanese any good. Scorched earth will probably be a lot better for the Russians and a lot worse for Japanese supply lines. It's less honorable than fighting though. Will the Russian generals make the right decision?

I think the Russians will be able to hang on since they won't lose the Ukraine and Poland were most of the food was. Italians weren't that good either although they will keep a lot of French tied down. The Ottomans will be out soon to. The Russians will beat the crap out of them too just like the Austrians unless the French and British prop them up. I'm not sure if the smaller amount of French/British forces in northern France will tip the balance in favour of Germany and the ( and maybe a REF) though. I wonder what the postwar world will be like. If the Central powers win which isn't unlikely, the Russians will get the Bosporus and the ice free ports they wanted so badly. Austro-Hungary and the Ottoman empire will split up. The Germans might get Austria, and Czechia. France will be punished severly by a reversed treaty of Versailles. Britain will be left alone mostly. So, what happens next. Any ideas about a possible WW2?

Any thoughts?

We can also assume that the Russo-German alliance will get a substantial amount of support from the Balkans. Serbia, Greece and Romania have plenty to gain; Serbia gaining Bosnia and Croatia, Greece taking Thrace and Romania gaining Transylvania. This Dual Alliances war against the Ottomans might be enough for them to gain many Balkan states as possible allies.

If the Austrians crumble after a short period, the Germans and Italians, along with the R.E.F, can focus their entire armies against the French. This might be enough to allow a German victory. If the Austrians continue to fight, however, Germany's position could be undermined a lot quicker than OTL.

What intruiges me is post-settlement, who gets what of the dismembered Austro-Hungarian Empire....

Germany with Sudentenland, Tyrol, and Austria?

Umbric Man said:

What intruiges me is post-settlement, who gets what of the dismembered Austro-Hungarian Empire....

Germany with Sudentenland, Tyrol, and Austria?

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Or maybe all of Bohemia and Moravia in addition. Possibly even Slovenia.

Russia gains Galicia and Romania probably Transsylvania.

Italy gets the Dalmatian coast and probably Albania, if they want it.

If Croatia ends as an independant bufferstate (let's say they switch sides at the right time), it will divide Bosnia with Serbia, which also gets Montenegro.

Greece will gain Thrace, but Russia might want Tsargrad. Some German/Italian diplomacy might be needed here. Greece probably also claims parts of the Anatolian west coast. Russia makes some gains in the other side of Anatolia.

If propery coordinated, the dismemberment of Austria-Hungary should not take more than three months tops. It's in the interest of the Russo-German Alliance to call it quits after they have feasted on the corpse of the Habsburg Dynasty and took some land from Turkey: they've made good gains and another major effort with France/UK will only loose them more men for dubious results.

Has anybody considered the possibility of the Allies actually winning this war?

As far as I remember, the Galician operation by Russian regular troops in early war (autumn 1914) almost managed to leak the Austrians but annihilation of the 2nd Army (Samsonov) at Tannenberg and German reinforcement of the flank posed the threat to Russian armies advancing on Krakow and the Austrians were able to beat off the Russian attack in desperate effort.
Now imagine that there's no Russians in the East Prussia, and 1st an 2nd armies by Samsonov and Rannenkampf attack the Ladomeria without Germans helping the Austrians. My guess is that Austro-Hungary is going to be out of the war pretty soon.

I read in some history book the suggestion that Germany should've considered to divide A-H with Russia if imperial Germany wanted to survive, but I don't know... even a Bismarck-like chancellor would have difficulties to pull this through. After all, it means eradicating one of the oldest monarchies in Europe. Who but a republican would do that?

Maybe if Franz Joseph died earlier... Karl might be too young and unexperienced, but then Franz Ferdinand would take over, since he sin't dead yet.

The Habsburgs could end up as rulers of the kingdom of Bohemia and Austria within the German Empire like Bavaria et al.

well if the allies do win the consequences will surely be much worse for France being attacked on 2 fronts.

No, an Allied win is not very likely. Try to see it this way:

Germany swapped two Allies. Turkey and A-H for Italy and Russia.

While Turkey didn't actually took part in European theatre (with the possible exception of Gallipoli), Italy can open a second front in the south of France, perhaps even form one gigantic front if the Central Powers can gain some ground along the Swiss border. That would additively burden France and Britain.

Mapower is a fact to consider here, too. In OTL, Germany had to spare troops for the fight against Russia AND the support of A-H against Italy and Russia. These troops are now available. PLUS, A-H is swapped for Russia, another major gain in manpower.

Btw Russia certainly is a stronger, more valuable ally than A-H. The German army didn't "weep the floor" with Russia, there were indeed some critical moments on the eastern front. Brussilov's offensive is one example.
I tend to think that without Germany's support, Russia would in fact have wept the floor with Austria.

zeitenschmiede said:

I tend to think that without Germany's support, Russia would in fact have wept the floor with Austria.

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Quite true. In fact remember that at the beginning of OTL ww1 AH was getting it's ass handed to it by Russia and was saved only by the intervention of the Germans. "We have shackled ourselves to a corpse." to paraphrase.
Let's look at this situation. France now has two fronts to deal with, which is going to drain them even faster. Germany can (mostly) bear the full force of it's military against France. The CP now has Germany and Russia, the two most populous states in Europe at the time committing their forces. The Balkans are no longer a problem so that will also free up troops. AH now has Germany, Russia, Italy, and possibly the Balkan states attacking it. Basically the CP have all the advantages, even more so if Germany tries to modernize the Russian and Italian militarizes which in this case they probably would.
In short, the Entente is massively screwed.

Overall, that is probably right. But there are some points.

1- Why would the Germans try to improve the Russian and Italian militaries when in OTL neither's allies attempted to do it?
2- IF the British won at sea, they could do about as well in naval warfare as in OTL. They would also have the troops avaliable that in OTL were spent on Ottoman campaigns (Gallipoli in particular is notable).
3- Woodrow Wilson was greatly pro-British. If the Americans entered the war on the British side (unrestricted submarine warfare could happen in TTL as well), Central Powers victory would not be inevitable.

Carinthium said:

1- Why would the Germans try to improve the Russian and Italian militaries when in OTL neither's allies attempted to do it?

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No, Germany is not going tro help pre-war Russia. But then it will simply be forced to share some of technologies in exchange of bread and strategic resources. Probably, Russian heavy bombers "Ilya Muromets" will be assembled on German factories, and they are the best heavy bombers of early Great war.

Carinthium said:

2- IF the British won at sea, they could do about as well in naval warfare as in OTL. They would also have the troops avaliable that in OTL were spent on Ottoman campaigns (Gallipoli in particular is notable).

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Nowhere to send them. With Belgium occupied and Germans pulling hard west with ALL their force available plus REF are going to grind the French and Belgians flat. English Expeditionary Force may as well be annihilated. The continent thus my be quickly overrun by the Central Powers.

Carinthium said:

3- Woodrow Wilson was greatly pro-British. If the Americans entered the war on the British side (unrestricted submarine warfare could happen in TTL as well), Central Powers victory would not be inevitable.

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That's quite a different cattle of fish... Hmm, I may say here that if Woodrow Wilson is not going to interfere with the war of the British side. Britain will survive, of course but is going to have hard time defending its colonies. In that case Wilson will loose the elections to... Teddy Roosevelt (he's not going to have the lethal stroke in 1919, his son is alive and he has all his energy preserved, so Roosevelt is going to live and become the President in Harding's stead in 1920). That's going to be quite interesting that way for Teddy is a hardliner and there never be Washington Treaty, and it is going to become the Age of Huge Battleships...
Germany, Russia and occupied France are, of course, continental powers but having acquired French and Dutch ports and shipyards (probably, Dutch and French warships), having combined all their navies, they will be able to force Britain into naval blockade of the Isles. The help from USA may lead only to stalemate. The Central Powers are the masters of the continental Europe having huge Russia's resources behind their backs, and USA and Britain guarding their interests in th seas.

Stalker said:

Carinthium said:

2- IF the British won at sea, they could do about as well in naval warfare as in OTL. They would also have the troops avaliable that in OTL were spent on Ottoman campaigns (Gallipoli in particular is notable).

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Nowhere to send them. With Belgium occupied and Germans pulling hard west with ALL their force available plus REF are going to grind the French and Belgians flat. English Expeditionary Force may as well be annihilated. The continent thus my be quickly overrun by the Central Powers.

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If Italy is one of the Central Powers then that is one target for British Forces. Due to the terrain, the Italian attack against France is susceptable to a British flanking attack on the coast.

Cheers,
Nigel.

Max Sinister said:

I read in some history book the suggestion that Germany should've considered to divide A-H with Russia if imperial Germany wanted to survive, but I don't know... even a Bismarck-like chancellor would have difficulties to pull this through. After all, it means eradicating one of the oldest monarchies in Europe. Who but a republican would do that?

Maybe if Franz Joseph died earlier... Karl might be too young and unexperienced, but then Franz Ferdinand would take over, since he sin't dead yet.

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I think the Germans will get Austria and Czechia. The Russians wil get Galicia. The Italians will get Dalmatia, Istria, possibly South-Tyrol and Albania if they want it. The Serbs will take Bosnia and Croatia. Romania will likely take Transylvania. What remains of Austro-Hungary is Hungary and Slovakia which could become an independent Hungarian kingdom led by Franz Ferdinand (assuming his death is butterflied away), Karl or Franz Joseph if he isn't dead yet. So no eradicating of the Habsburgs.

NCW said:

If Italy is one of the Central Powers then that is one target for British Forces. Due to the terrain, the Italian attack against France is susceptable to a British flanking attack on the coast.

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Well, I simply am trying to imagine the length of the logistics train around Spain and Gibraltar to Sicily or Naples.
Moreover, attack of Italy cannot hurt Central Powers seriously.
We all should also study in greater detail the question why the Russo-German relations were worsening steadily from 1881 to 1890, why Bismarck forbade The Deutschebank to lend money to Russian capital? Why since 1887 Russia started to levy German goods, and Germany did the same? What were the reasons for that? Then probably we can find real moving forces of the process. Was it all Alexander III Alexandrovich's fault? In his later years he became a convinced Germanophobe.
Maybe if we rewind the tape back to March 1, 1881 and somehow avoid Alexander II's assasination. That means that the alive Czar would sign the Constitutional act at the same day of March, 1 1881. That's going to change a lot. A little bit more liberal Russia, Czar-Germanophile still on the throne...

Umbric Man said:

What intruiges me is post-settlement, who gets what of the dismembered Austro-Hungarian Empire....

Germany with Sudentenland, Tyrol, and Austria?

Click to expand...

Russia get Galizia and Bukovina

Germany get Austria, Slovenia, Czechia and Bozen

Italy get Trentito, Istria and Dalmatia

Serbia get Bosnia and maybe the rest of Croatia

Romania get Transsylvania

The Habsburgs keep whats left of Hungary

No, Germany is not going tro help pre-war Russia. But then it will simply be forced to share some of technologies in exchange of bread and strategic resources. Probably, Russian heavy bombers "Ilya Muromets" will be assembled on German factories, and they are the best heavy bombers of early Great war.

Click to expand...

Germany will need to help Russia if they want resources. I assume that Russia and Germany become allies in the 1880s in this TL. At that time Russia barely had any industry and mines. Russia was a very backward country. Not very many railroads, very little industry, very little solid roads and armed forces that lagged years behind on those of western Europe. Germany will probably try to stimulate German companies and entrepreneurs to invest in Russia and they could try to make Nicholas II understand that modernisation is necessary. Wilhelm II of Germany was a very stubborn man. He might be able to do it. They could also train the Russian army and sell them modern equipment which they can copy and improve on. The Russian Empire had many resources and a huge population. Russia could have become a superpower if only the Russian rulers hadn't been so reactionary. If I had been Czar instead of Nicholas II, Russia would have beaten the crap out of tiny upstart Japan and Korea would have become a Russian province instead of a Japanese one.