Mao purged, 1962

[Doug M.]

We now know that Chairman Mao went through a period in the early '60s when he might have been vulnerable to overthrow by a sufficiently aggressive underling. Them failure of the Great Leap Forward had become more or less open knowledge among the Party elite at that point, and while no one realized just how bad it was -- that Mao had been responsible for a nationwide famine, and the death of perhaps 30 million people -- it was clear that he had screwed up in a very, very big way.

In OTL Mao went into semi-seclusion for several years around this time. It appeared that he might be turning into a semi-divine but distant emperor-figure, the sort of god-king who is a revered figurehead but who has little influence on the day-to-day running of the country. But in '66 he came roaring back with the Cultural Revolution...

Suppose someone had taken him out?

My best guess is that China would quickly take several steps away from Stalinist collectivism. And with the GLF fresh in everyone's memory, the way might be open for reform.

WI we had something like Deng Xiaoping's reforms, but a generation earlier? By the 1990s, China would probably be quite a lot wealthier -- and stronger -- than in OTL.

Of course, various things could intervene. Many observers think the Chinese regime is going to face a crisis of legitimacy in the next few years; in this TL, that might hit sometime in the 1980s. And the USSR might feel more threatened by a wealthier, nominally Communist but really pseudo-capitalist China; war between these two seems rather more possible.

Still, the "stronger China" outcome seems quite possible. And that might not be all bad, you know. A generation less of Mao's idiotic population policies would mean a noticeably smaller Chinese population, which would probably be a good thing for both China and the world. And no Cultural Revolution means that a lot of cool Chinese art, antiques, and traditions
aren't lost.

Thoughts?


Doug M.

[Archibald]

Chinese manned spaceflight would have happened much, much earlier.
The Shuguan and Shengzhou capsules share the same basic launcher, the CZ-2.
This rocket flew in the mid -70's.
chinese astronauts were selected in 1973,
China mastered (unmanned) capsule reentry in 1977 with the FSW.

But the manned space program was halted in 1973 because of Mao craziness about cultural revolution.

Deng came in 1978, but manned spacecraft had to wait until 1985, then more years were lost before deciding in favor of a capsule.
Decision happened in 1992, first flight in 2003.

We can thus put a chinese manned spaceflight around 1980 - 1983 had the cultural revolution never happened...

But the crew would probably have suffered of high g-load, cramped capsule, and so on. (source is astronautix)

[ObssesedNuker]

Hmm... was it 1962 or '64 that the Sino-Soviet Split happened?

[Faeelin]

Hold up, would this Chjina necessarily abandon Communism? Collectivism, sure. Something like Yugoslavia, maybe. But in 1962 the rapproachment with America hasn't happened yet, and Taiwan hasn't become the economic success story it would later become.

(Let's not ignore the significant advances the CCP did make in this era, either).