Soviet defeat at Khalkhin Gol, Victory in Finland

[carlton_bach]

Just an idle thought:

Japan probed Soviet defenses in summer 1938 and again 1939, but was sent packing by the Red Army at Khalkhin Gol (also known as the 'Gesundheit' battle, after the reaction every time someone pronounces it)

In 1939/40, the Soviets suffered a humiliating near-defeat at the hands of the Finns.

WI these were reversed? What if the Japanese forces had beaten Stalin's tanks in 1938 and, stung by the humiliation, the USSR put more resources into operations and technology and, as a result thereof, dictates a humiliating peace to Mannerheim in Helsinki on January 9th, 1940 after overrunning the Finnish defenses according to the original plan?

What implications down the road? Would Japan be more willing to consider war against the Soviets (shades of 1905)? Would the Germans have greater respect fopr the red army and make different invasion plans? Or call off Barbarossa entirely? (I doubt that) Would the new Soviet tanks and tank doctrine energise the Franco-British staff into rethinking Blitzkrieg defenses? Prod the Germans into fielding their own variety of the T34?

[aktarian]

Would Zhukov survive? Or would he be blamed for failure and executed?

[carlton_bach]

Originally Posted by aktarian

Would Zhukov survive? Or would he be blamed for failure and executed?

If he could find a subordinate to blame, he might make it. Under Stalin, the most amazing incompetents could survive with that skill (see Lysenko and Budyenni). Even if, though, how much of a difference would it make?

[Johnestauffer]

It would take a different Japanese army to win the victory. Their tanks were poorly designed and obsolete. Overall their army had a lot of experience in fighting in China but little experience with hi-tech warfare.
If Japan had been able to defeat the Russians it would have meant that there military was far more technically advanced than in OT.
This would mean that Japan would prove to be more of a 'threat' to other powers.
For Russia to have lost their army would have had to have been far more 'deficient' and it is doubtful they could have made up the difference in a short time.
The fighting quality of the Finns inflicted heavy losses on the Russians even using truely obsolete weapons (some of the artillery given to them by the French was so old the barrels didn't even have recoiling gear, but used sloped platforms under the wheels to absorb the recoil)

[GBW]

I'd say you have to prevent word of the looming Japanese attack from leaking to Zhukov before it happened. That's how he got so many forces concentrated on the Mongolia-Manchukuo border and launched a preemptive strike. The initial Japanese attack would be successful, but then you face the most likely IJA response to this victory: Keep Going!

In the long-term, this could be bad. The most extreme IJA officers wanted to drive the Soviets to the Ural Mountains, while at minimum the whole incident was about a stretch of border territory between Soviet and Japanese puppet states. Keeping the Japanese towards the lower end of that range would be difficult. If the Japanese keep going and outrun their supply lines, Zhukov will have gathered enough forces in the meantime and crush them, bringing about a situation similar to OTL, maybe worse. You'd need some sort've middle ground, a stalemate, to happen. Pitting Soviet numbers and tanks against Japanese superior airpower, perhaps. The Japanese would advance into Mongolia but eventually overstretch themselves and get defeated by the Red Army, perhaps at Ulaanbaatar. Japanese airpower would have to be the key to cover the Japanese withdrawal to some sort of fallback positions. In the end, the conflict would have to end slightly in Japan's favor, allowing the border dispute to be settled in Manchukuo's favor. If the incident becomes more public than OTL due to its being larger in scale, it could lead to some restructuring in the IJA and perhaps lead to more development of tank and small arms technology. Imagine the IJA with decent tanks or automatic rifles.

This Japan wouldn't have the dread of the USSR it did in OTL and might be willing to attack the USSR again if it sees it in its best interests to do so. They'd gain ores and a small amount of oil in eastern Siberia and Sakhalin Island, but the European Far Eastern colonies provide much more in the way of resources.

[unsunghero]

Someone else on this board has proposed a pod whereas Japan established Mongolia as a 'protectorate' along the lines of Manchukuo, but is able to get its act together later on and defy/fight Japan. What if in the late '10s, early '20s, Japan is able to keep playing in Siberia with the Whites and the Mongols. What were early British tanks like compared to the early Soviet ones? I think the Germans made short work of them, but against the Soviets, maybe they'd be okay (for awhile?). Maybe Japan somehow gets a hold of Czech tanks and produces them? This still doesn't address the problem of how to get the Japanese to incorporate tanks as a particular force, as opposed to dispersing them among the infantry...hm....

[GBW]

Originally Posted by unsunghero

Someone else on this board has proposed a pod whereas Japan established Mongolia as a 'protectorate' along the lines of Manchukuo, but is able to get its act together later on and defy/fight Japan.

That was me, actually. That sounds a lot like 'Greater Mongolia' anyway.

[nyudnik]

If the Germans & Japanese had both attacked on June 21 1941, could the Soviets have held the Japanese in the east, or would it have ended with an Axis party on the Urals?