WI Prince Hussein of Jordan dies in 1951?

On 20 July 1951 King Abdullah was in Jerusalem to give a eulogy at the funeral of Riad Bey al-Soth former PM of Lebanon and was shot while attending Friday prayers at the Dome of the Rock in the company of his grandson, Prince Hussein. The Palestinian gunman, motivated by fears that the old king would make a separate peace with Israel, fired three fatal bullets into the King's head and chest. Abdullah's grandson, Prince Hussein was at his side and was hit too. A medal that had been pinned to Hussein's chest at his grandfather's insistence deflected the bullet and saved his life.
WI Prince Hussein was killed with his grandfather in that attack? How is that altering History? Any thoughts?

It's pretty huge.

One, having both of them killed throws the succession into severe confusion. Jordan didn't have a clear path of succession. It still doesn't, really. The rule is, the reigning King picks one male member of the royal house to be heir, and can change his mind. I don't think there's a provision for losing King and heir at the same time. So, there may be multiple claimants to the throne.

Two -- and this is probably bigger in the long run -- taking King Hussein off the board will have enormous knock-on effects on Jordanian politics and policy. Hussein was a very canny, cunning character, and one of the Middle East's great political survivors. He kept his throne when the kings of Syria, Egypt, Iraq and Iran lost theirs, and he did it in a very difficult neighborhood, and without oil.

Absent Hussein, good chance that by 1967 Jordan is another secular-republic-cum-military-dictatorship, a la Egypt and Syria. Even if not, whoever is in charge is unlikely to handle Black September as well as Hussein did. So, Middle Eastern history probably jumps the tracks in a big way.


Doug M.

September 1970 is known as the Black September in Arab history and sometimes is referred to as the "era of regrettable events." It was a month when Hashemite King Hussein of Jordan moved to quash an attempt by Palestinian organizations to overthrow his monarchy. The violence resulted in the killing of 7,000 to 8,000 from both sides.[1] Armed conflict lasted until July 1971 with the expulsion of the PLO and thousands of Palestinians to Lebanon.

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No refugee camps in Lebanon, So a more stable Lebanon.

The Wars with be different, probaly with more Jordanian involvement.

With the Palestinians, in Control of Jordan, Israel will insist that Jordan is the Palestinian Homeland.
So more Israeli support for the West Bank Settlements.

Whoops, I almost forgot King Talal.

Talal was Abdullah's son, and succeeded him, but only for a year or so. He was pushed off the throne. The official reason was mental illness -- schizophrenia. This may or may not have been the case.

Anyway, if Hussein is killed too, then Talal has two possible male heirs: his younger brother Naif (who was in his late 30s in the early 1950s, and was briefly regent for Hussein OTL), or his surviving son -- Hussein's younger brother -- Prince Mohammad. The problem with Mohammad, is that he's very young, born in 1940. So, not too clear who takes it.

Talal seems to have been, if not insane, at least some combination of weak and unpopular, so he probably won't stay King too long anyway.


Doug M.

Maybe an earlier and more successful Arab Federation?

I doubt it. The Arab Federations of OTL were pretty short-lived and fissiparous, and Jordan in particular had rocky relations with its neighbors for a long time.


Doug M.

Doug M. said:

I doubt it. The Arab Federations of OTL were pretty short-lived and fissiparous, and Jordan in particular had rocky relations with its neighbors for a long time.


Doug M.

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The King of Iraq had a good claim on the throne however.

Without Hussein i guess that Jordan might have become a republic like the rest Arab countries.... He managed to keep his throne while all the other Arab Kings where getting kicked out one by one...