Admiral Canaris
Banned
Is this possible at all, and what POD would be required? Additionally, what would the consequences be?
I know a little about this stuff, but only a little.
I know a little about this stuff, but only a little.
Portugal retaining her overseas provinces
- Thread starter Admiral Canaris
- Start date
I think you'd need a pretty big POD that keeps colonialism acceptable. Portugal alone can not hold on in the face of concerted resistance even without Soviet support for the rebels, but with a little help from allies it might just be able to. If yoiu keep the country in the European political mainstream, keep the USSR out of the picture and the USA isolationist - as I said, a pretty big POD.
Admiral Canaris
Banned
So the talk that the Portuguese were winning the war when they pulled out was dead wrong?
I was thinking that perhaps with a worse Communism, the US might be willing to prop up Portugal and other African powers as a defence against anti-colonialist Communists.
I was thinking that perhaps with a worse Communism, the US might be willing to prop up Portugal and other African powers as a defence against anti-colonialist Communists.
Svartekaptenen
Banned
No they were winning alright but the government in Lissabon deemed it to expensive for a small country like Portugal to keep up the expenditures for a war far from home, and do not forget they had problems at home also.
Yeah, I'd say that the death of the Estado Novo led directly to the death of Portuguese colonialism. I think you'd have to prop up some form of Portuguese authoritarianism up or create some big butterflies.
Admiral Canaris
Banned
So, how about a more right-wing US that supports them financially like they did the French or South Vietnam?
Hey, if they do that with Rhodesia and South Africa as well, African development will look radically different! Sounds like an opportunity for an interesting TL!
Hey, if they do that with Rhodesia and South Africa as well, African development will look radically different! Sounds like an opportunity for an interesting TL!
Susano
Banned
OTOH, Portuguese colonialism led directly to the death of the Estado Novo
The Carnation Revolution was no open revolution, at all, but a concentrated coup d'etat by militar yfroces that were absolutely disappointed by th egovrnment due to the never ending colonial war.
So, maybe the Portuguese were winning when the Carnation Revolution happened. It doesnt matter - sure as hell five years later revolutions wouldve broken out yet again! The irony here is that as far as I understand, Portuguese language, culture and also genes for that matter took a deeper root in Angola and Mocambique than of other states in other colonies - after all, portugal also held those territories some centuries more. It thus might even have been possible to assimilate those territories, but I guess a dictatorship, and especially the dictatorship of the Estado Novo was not the right structure for that.
Hence, a Portuguese successful democracy might even be the key to that, instead of the Estado Novo surviving. Because that state form WILL eventually crumble, and WILL always have the problems of a neverending colonial war.
Valdemar II
Banned
Let start with the super apartheit South Africa which own Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia which would mean that the Portugese colonies would have a friendly neighbour, South Africa keep helping Portugal keeping their colonies against access to Portugese markeds.
I actually tried this, perhaps Angola and Mozambique want in on the EU
US support was not gonna happen under Nixon/Ford (sore over losing Vietnam, not gonna have another war) or Carter (staunch human rights defender). Perhaps have Portugal hang on to Angola and Mozambique until the early 80s and Reagan. In the case of Rhodesia and Namibia, you might just want to make both Reagan and Thatcher consider the two places key points fighting communism. The Apartheid laws in Namibia were dead by 1981-82, and you'd figure that Rhodesia would have given up on racial segregation by that time too.
What would work in both cases is a multiracial government and the destruction of the Communist-backed forces. In Namibia that's hard, in Rhodesia harder still. You'd have to eradicate SWAPO, ZANLA and ZIPRA. Having the South Africans and Portugese rip up Angola looking for SWAPO will fix that problem. But the Rhodesian Army had no prayer of stopping ZANLA and ZIPRA on its own, unless they got help. Britain has their hands full in Argentina by this point, so it falls on Reagan.
The idea of the EEC allowing Portugal in and then Portugal bringing the colonies into the EEC (and eventually EU) is intriguing indeed. Both Angola and Mozambique has lots of natural resources, and through those two gateway points you could get resources from much of southern Africa. The idea of having the people of Angola and Mozambique able to travel all through Portugal - and by extension the EEC/EU - would be a fine way to have lotsa money and friends make it to Africa.
Admiral Canaris
Banned
I imagined an earlier POD, perhaps somewhere back in the '50s or '60s causing a greater "Red Scare" and more active American foreign policy, though this would probably work as well.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
[shameless plug]I am planning something like that in my TL,in which Portugal becomes a democracy in 1940. [/shameless plug]
By the way, your sig is dated. The Germans have taken Paris, have they not?