Challenge: Communist Mexico

[tallwingedgoat]

Turn Mexico Communist before WWII with a POD no earlier than 1910. Speculate as to the impact on the Cold War. Extra credit involve Leon Trotsky.



Credit goes to Arturo Belano for the flag.

[Itzcoyotl the Great]

Awesome flag!
Interesting topic, I'm thinking something significant happening during the Cardenas administration, who used Marx and Lenin in most academic curriculum. I'll come back to this later

[Corbell Mark IV]

IF it is the result of a guerilla war the consquences for the Cold War are horrible.

First of all, massive refugees to the US. Probably eventually drafted into a army for the US intervention.

Then of course US intervention. You wanted a communist Mexico, so we assume American defeat. Basically another vietnam, with the differance noone argues that this is not important.

I wonder if the wave of Mexican refugees would be Republican like the anti-castro cubans?

Mexico becomes a soviet ally. Possible treaty preventing large scale soviet deployment of forces.


Militarized, closed border.


Possiblity of a third US/Mexican war becomes a constant flashpoint, especially if there is a goverment in exile.

Mexico becomes a communist failed state, much like Cuba. Huge drain of Soviet Resources or very, very poor.

[Hendryk]

Nice flag, but it would be more plausible without the bit in Russian.

Mexico could indeed have had a Communist revolution at some point in the 20th century, with its large underclass of landless peasants and its tradition of violent regime change.

I wonder: Zapata was influenced more by anarchism than by socialism, but would his ideological makeup have evolved if he had lived past 1919, when he was killed in an ambush? Those were the years of the Bolshevik takeover of Russia, and Zapata may have seen similarities between his own fight and that of the Soviets, leading to a rapprochement.

[ninebucks]

Originally Posted by Corbell Mark IV

Mexico becomes a communist failed state, much like Cuba. Huge drain of Soviet Resources or very, very poor.

By what possible definition is Cuba a failed state?

[Communist Wizard]

Originally Posted by ninebucks

By what possible definition is Cuba a failed state?

It's a constant propoganda campaign in America.
We need something to stave off the American/gringo vulture in the north. Involvement in WW2 or WW1 leads to tied down resources and no time to stop a violent but quick revolution?

[PaleHorseRiding]

Originally Posted by Communist Wizard

It's a constant propoganda campaign in America.
We need something to stave off the American/gringo vulture in the north. Involvement in WW2 or WW1 leads to tied down resources and no time to stop a violent but quick revolution?

I dont know the starvation the child prostitution the secret police the shit life the fact that most of their population has tried to leave to do better in the US

[Codeman]

Originally Posted by Corbell Mark IV

Then of course US intervention. You wanted a communist Mexico, so we assume American defeat. Basically another vietnam, with the differance noone argues that this is not important.

No way that's completely ASB. The very reason we lost Vietnam was because the people thought it was unimportant. With Mexico right on the border it is impossible that we would lose against them without Soviet nuclear intervention.

Mexico is not Vietnam, the USSR is thousands of miles away and there is no way it could supply large amounts of arms or soldiers to them without the US knowing.

The Mexican communist government is invaded and crushed similar to what happened in Hungary.

[tantric]

I dont know the starvation the child prostitution the secret police the shit life the fact that most of their population has tried to leave to do better in the US

*Comparatively* say, considering Jamaica and Haiti, Cuba if fairly well off. Also, "failed state" generally involves a lack of viability as a nation, something that's better split into parts.

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by PaleHorseRiding

I dont know the starvation the child prostitution the secret police the shit life the fact that most of their population has tried to leave to do better in the US

I really don't see where you pulled that out of. Cuba may not be democratic but it is by all other accounts a reasonably well-functioning state by Third World standards.

The life expectancy of the average Cuban, incidentally, is only marginally shorter than that of the average American.

[Corbell Mark IV]

Originally Posted by Communist Wizard

It's a constant propoganda campaign in America.
We need something to stave off the American/gringo vulture in the north. Involvement in WW2 or WW1 leads to tied down resources and no time to stop a violent but quick revolution?

POint taken.

How about incrediblely crappy communist state?

[Corbell Mark IV]

Originally Posted by Codeman

No way that's completely ASB. The very reason we lost Vietnam was because the people thought it was unimportant. With Mexico right on the border it is impossible that we would lose against them without Soviet nuclear intervention.

Mexico is not Vietnam, the USSR is thousands of miles away and there is no way it could supply large amounts of arms or soldiers to them without the US knowing.

The Mexican communist government is invaded and crushed similar to what happened in Hungary.

We still don't have a good answer to the guerilla campaign model. Supply would be difficult and I do think an American victory is likely, but the challange is Communist Mexico.

COnsider also the fact this war spills over into the American SW. Hell, you likely have mexican gang factions fighting in LA!

Large scale rioting. Fifth Column activeties, terrorism, sabotage, political subversion, ect.

It is a nightmare for the US.


Hell, maybe it happens during Vietnam!

[Hendryk]

Originally Posted by Corbell Mark IV

How about incrediblely crappy communist state?

Cuba isn't so crappy when you leave out the unpleasant nature of its regime. Compare it to other Caribbean countries like Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Trinidad, to say nothing of Haiti, and you'll realize Cuba stands the comparison pretty well.

[tallwingedgoat]

Gents, this thread is not a discussion on the merits or demerits of ideology. Rather it is about whether Mexico could have gone Communist and how it would effect world history.

[Corbell Mark IV]

Originally Posted by tallwingedgoat

Gents, this thread is not a discussion on the merits or demerits of ideology. Rather it is about whether Mexico could have gone Communist and how it would effect world history.

I was merely considering the economic impact of a differant ideology and comparing, say East and West Germany or Taiwan and Mainland China.

And thus assuming that TTL Mexico would be even poorer than OTL.

Thus, end result Crappy Mexico. Closed Militarized Border. Mexican population could be similar to OTL. Big waves during war, closed border after.

Likely Mexican-Americans similar to Anti-castro Cubans in politcal views with huge political effects in US.

With the end of the Cold War this population could be waiting for Mexico to open back up.

If border was not effectively closed, drug running plus political tensions could lead to Third US Mexican War! and an early 21st century occupation of Mexico.

[tallwingedgoat]

Originally Posted by Corbell Mark IV

With the end of the Cold War this population could be waiting for Mexico to open back up.

If border was not effectively closed, drug running plus political tensions could lead to Third US Mexican War! and an early 21st century occupation of Mexico.

Would US wait until after the Cold War though? If US was willing to intervene in Korea and Vietnam over Communism, why not in Mexico? As surely the risk of Communist revolutions in the Americas is a much greater threat.

[AbyssalDaemon]

The second that Mexico goes Communist unless it's right at worst point of the Depression it's is going to have American troops knocking on the doors of Mexico City a day later. Even if it is at the worst of the Depression it's going to end up occupied by the end of WWII or soon after by the USA.

Two of the major consequences that might arise from a communist Mexico is that the Red-scare of the 50's is going to probably by quite a bit worse in it was and this USA is probably going to care less about Europe and be far more interested in the affairs of the other nations of Central and South America.

[tallwingedgoat]

Originally Posted by AbyssalDaemon

The second that Mexico goes Communist unless it's right at worst point of the Depression it's is going to have American troops knocking on the doors of Mexico City a day later. Even if it is at the worst of the Depression it's going to end up occupied by the end of WWII or soon after by the USA.

Why? In the 1920's Communism was more weird than threatening. America was quite cozy with the Soviets considering. American industry were of great help to Lenin's economic reconstruction.

[Admiral Brown]

Originally Posted by tallwingedgoat

Why? In the 1920's Communism was more weird than threatening. America was quite cozy with the Soviets considering. American industry were of great help to Lenin's economic reconstruction.

That's exactly what I was going to say. Most of those who have posted seem to be thinking in the case of Cuba. But Cuba went communist in the late 50ies/early 60ies, in the middle of the cold world.

If Mexico went communist after WWII, the simmilarities between both cases may apply. USA will almost certainly intervene, and, in the very unlikely event of a defeat, we'll have a militarized US-Mexican border and all the other things that have been said.

But if Mexico went communist before WWII (as in the original post) - in the 20ies for example - that may not necessarly happen. You see, in this scenario, Mexico won't be percieved as a "Russian" colonny, because the Rusian bolshevicks wouldn't be in conditions of helping Mexico a lot. A "Mexican" Communist regime would be an entirely national thing, and would have to survive on its own. It's very unlikely that it will subordinate itself to Moscu (in the same way as China or Yugoslavia, who became communist by their own means, didn't aligned with Moscu).

And, if the Mexican Communist government comes after a decade long civil war, it might even been seen in the US with some relief, as they may be happy to see that its southern neighbour has now a stable government.

If the Trostky/Stalin split still occurs, and Mexico becomes "Trostkyst", the US might help him, and use the existance of a non-aligned Soviet country for propaganda purpuses. It might realize that haven a peacefull, friendly, (non Stalinist) Communist neighbour might be a very good card to play in the event of a cold war.

Or maybe, on the contrary, the US sees Trostky as a greater threat than Stalin (after all, Stalin didn't want to spread the revolution outside Russia), and decide to back him instead. Meanwhile, other western nations might have more aprehension towards Stalin, and might prefer to back Trostky.

[Anarhco Liberal]

This is actually extremely easy and I will make a POD for this soon...