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I am thinking a de facto partition. Northumbria is Hardraada's for certain, the question is how far south the surviving AngloSaxons would rally to him against the Norman Bastard (odds are the Southern Coast is too readily reenforced for such an ad hoc alliance to expel the Normans).
HTG
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In 1066, Northumbria's status as definatively 'England' is, in my mind, less than concrete.
However, I do agree with you about the fact that William will be under pressure to leave quickly in the wake of a defeat.
Then again, it depends upon the location of the defeat, the level of control the Normans have on the South, and what the Saxons are up to.
If both Gyrth and Leofwine (Harold's brothers killed at Hastings) die at Stamford Bridge, the Saxons may fall in line with Tostig behind Hardrada.
They may instead rally to Morcar, Edwin and Edgar Aetheling. What they would do is unknown. Tostig had been removed from Northumbria by Harold due to his unpopularity. That hatred may still remain.
If one or both of Gyrth and Leofwine survive, what they do will be interesting. Will they join Tostig, to take positions of power in Harald's new regome? Will they bid for the throne themselves as Harold's heir, or support another.
I think that what happens next is very dependent upon the fallen at the battle of Stamford Bridge and the subsequent actions of leading Saxon nobles.
There could be a three way war, the Saxons could side with either Norman or Viking, or divide between them.
Not sure i'll find it and put a link upIs that William the Forsaken?
"The Greater Norman Empire and its successor states. " - TL Title
Harald Hardrada wins at Stamford Bridge
With the Saxon fyrd decimated, there would be little or no resistance to William's army in the south. I suspect that once he heard of Harold's death, he would move toward London and proclaim himself King of England.
Harald would presumably ensure Tostig was proclaimed King in York and there would, at some point, come either confrontation or negotiation between the Norwegians and Normans. I think confrontation is unlikely - Hardrada's army is large and would attract some Saxon support as would William's.
I suspect the more likely option is negotiation leading to an agreed partition of England perhaps not on the basis of Danelaw but not too far removed. Perhaps everything north and east of the Trent goes to Tostig/Hardrada and everything to the south to William.
Medium-term - I suspect Tostig is too stupid to keep control of his kingdom without Norwegian help. On the model of Cnut, it seems probable the Norwegians will see the benefit of becoming English and may in time even diverge from Norway. The question will then be relations with Scotland to the north and Wessex to the south.
For William, I suspect the immediate future is a group of discontented knights and a land to pillage and control.
Will there even be an England after all this ? Could what we know as southern England (perhaps including Wales eventually) become part of the emerging French nation leaving the north to become part of a greater Scotland in time ?
With the Saxon fyrd decimated, there would be little or no resistance to William's army in the south. I suspect that once he heard of Harold's death, he would move toward London and proclaim himself King of England.
Harald would presumably ensure Tostig was proclaimed King in York and there would, at some point, come either confrontation or negotiation between the Norwegians and Normans. I think confrontation is unlikely - Hardrada's army is large and would attract some Saxon support as would William's.
I suspect the more likely option is negotiation leading to an agreed partition of England perhaps not on the basis of Danelaw but not too far removed. Perhaps everything north and east of the Trent goes to Tostig/Hardrada and everything to the south to William.
Medium-term - I suspect Tostig is too stupid to keep control of his kingdom without Norwegian help. On the model of Cnut, it seems probable the Norwegians will see the benefit of becoming English and may in time even diverge from Norway. The question will then be relations with Scotland to the north and Wessex to the south.
For William, I suspect the immediate future is a group of discontented knights and a land to pillage and control.
Will there even be an England after all this ? Could what we know as southern England (perhaps including Wales eventually) become part of the emerging French nation leaving the north to become part of a greater Scotland in time ?