Japan chooses not to attack Pearl Harbour. What do americans do?

In OTL the japanese attacked Pearl Harbour to wipe the US fleet because they feared that the US would declare war on them when they tried to invade south east Asia. What if the japanese decide that awakening the sleeping giant is too much of a risk and decide to attack the british and dutch without attacking Pearl Harbour first? Would the americans sit down, or would they make true the japanese fears by joining the allies?

I am more interested by the american reaction in this scenario. With no direct japanese agression, would the american public be so eager to go to war? In fact, would the Congress even approve to declare war, even if the President and the army stated that Japan had to be stopped? And, if in the end the US declare war on Japan, what would Hitler do?

The whole subject of what would happen if the Pearl Harbor attack never took place is a very complex one. What makes it very interesting is that the margin in favor of carrying out the attack was very small; it wouldn't have taken much at all to swinga few key opinions and for teh attack to be aborted. So, "no Pearl Harbor raid" is a very plausible possibility.

I think there are two cases; one is that the Japanese strike south anyway but bypass the Philippines and strike at Malaya and the Dutch East Indies. The other is that the Japanese do not strike South at all but restrain their military ambitions.

Looking at the first case, its hard to see the Japanese by-passing the Philippines. It's the cork in the bottle as far as maritime supply lanes run and if its blocked, all the victories in SEA and DEI are pretty meaningless. It really is leaving Japan a hostage to American fortune. If they attack the Philippines, the US is in the war. If they do not, the Japanese can be strangled any time the Americans chose to - after pouring equipment into the Philippines to make an attack on it next to impossible. Again, that wouldn't take much; the book "Doomed from the Start" shows that the air battle wasn't as one-sided as we see it now and a few more assets better used may have made a great difference.

The second case is even more interesting. The key here is economics. DEI and Malaya are pretty isolated and both are in bad economic condition. The economic situation of Australia and New Zealand were pretty rough as well. Assuming the Far East stays at peace with the Japanese at home and in China, its at least arguable that the DEI would have had little choice to break the American sanctions and start selling oil to Japan. Probably done under the counter and through cut-outs but it would be done. Ironically, that would actually strengthen the hand of major Japanese companies who would be key to organizing such sanctions-busting trade. Other raw materials would come from SEA and also from Malaya/India (again, its easy to see a desperate UK allowing such trade, winking at it rather than face another war (in the Far East) when they were already fully stretched with the one war they had in Europe.)

Either way, the U.S. is in an interesting position. There's no doubt FDR was very keen to go to war with Nazi Germany and without hindsight, there's no guarantee that a Japanese entry would achieve that. So, its likely he would have continued with his Atlantic policies, eventually picking one of the inevitable incidents, saying "that's enough" and declaring war on Germany. But that doesn't necessarily translate to Japan getting involved. In fact, it could well be argued that had Japan not struck anybody in 1941 but left economic forces and pressures to work, the country might have been far better off. Certainly, they couldn't have been worse off.

It's also an interesting point that if Japan launches an attack on the Philippines (and it would likely still be a surprise attack), then the American navy is still intact to steam across the Pacific to defend/supply the Philippines. Supplying the Philipines would cause all sorts of problems with Japan's conquest of the islands, and it's hardly guaranteed that it would be a Japanese win. (After all, in running everything for the Final Battle Japan likely wouldn't carry out its best carrier doctrine).

Interesting observations, Bill.

I think the first option is highly unlikely because, as you say, the Phillipines are a natural spot from which the US (or any allies) could easily interdict Japanese supply lines with indonesia and indochina. I think occupation of the Phillipines would be seen by the Japanese high command as an essential element of any strike south. Keeping it in the hands of a hostile power would be too risky

As you say, the second option is interesting. Perhaps the DEI might find a way to go around the US oil embargo, but I have a hard time seeing the UK following suit. Churchill desparately needed the US to enter the European War and I think he would not want to do anything which might sour his relationship with the US.

Regarding the basic question, I believe that if the US eventually entered the war against Germany without a direct attack on US territory, FDR might have had his hands tied by political domestic considerations. Commitment to the allies might be less than total and the possibility of a US separate peace with any of the Axis powers might be kept on the table, especially if the war becomes unpopular at home.

As noted, the big problem was the Philippines. The American bases there represented a huge, very creditable, threat to Japanese ambitions. Given a few months the U.S. could have put enough resources into the Islands that the area would have been invulnerable. (As was, IOTL, the primary factor that defeated the American/Philippine force was logistics. Very hard to fight without sufficient ammunition or food. The Japanese attack's brilliance was in its surprise and overall execution; force on force, all things being equal, the IJA would have lost.) That puts the future of Japan entirely in the hands of the U.S. correcting that situation was the reason for the Southern Strategy in the first place. Also, any attack into the East Indies was bound to involve the USN, the ABDA squadron operated as a unified force & unlike the U-boat campaign, the Japanese would be the clear aggressor. (The Ruben James incident was seen by some as a "If we weren't out there screwing around, this wouldn't have happened in the first place".)

However, had the Japanese managed to avoid any American losses in their offensive, it is hard to see how the U.S. could go to war. The paranoia the Japanese would generate would result in the U.S. building up Hawaii, Guam, Midway, the Philippines, & Wake (and possibily Samoa) into hedgehogs, but actually attacking first is hard to imagine.

Unfortunately for Japan, this is easy to see with 67 years of hindsight, but remarkably hard to see at the time from Tokyo. There, what was seen was a U.S. that was building up forces to a point that the Japanese could barely dream of; a U.S. that had aleady, to Japanese eyes, demonstrated open hostility to Japan's legitimate interests.

I just became aware of and am currently reading James B. Wood's Japanese Military Strategy in the Pacific War: Was Defeat Inevitable? and am also aware of a new book Bankrupting the Enemy: The U.S. Financial Siege of Japan Before Pearl Harbor by Edward S. Miller and am beginning to think that in 1941 the Japanese did figure that it was there best window of opportunity to remove a clear and present threat to the Japanese nation.

I think Wood's arguement that the Japanese became overexpansionistic to their detriment - thank's particularly to Yamamoto - has some merit to it. The American presence in the Philippines has to be eliminated. However, one will not see the US Pacific Fleet steaming across the open ocean to execute Navy War Plan Red.

There is no way that the Dutch government would give in to the Japanese demands. Not only did they know that the entry of the US would be their only chance against the Germans and not only did they know that a Japanese victory over China would mean alot of future problems but there was more.

The Japanese didn't just want to buy oil and other rescourses. They wanted the DEI to become practically a puppet. Like they did with French Indochina. Now if there wouldn't have been a occupation of the Netherlands it would certainly be possible.

EDIT: do you have any source on the DEI economy in WWII? WOuldn't the demand for oil be skyhigh due to the war?

Bill Garvin said:

I think there are two cases; one is that the Japanese strike south anyway but bypass the Philippines and strike at Malaya and the Dutch East Indies. The other is that the Japanese do not strike South at all but restrain their military ambitions.

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There's a third possibility in here, as I see it. A general attack, including the Philippines, without a strike on Pearl Harbor.

Picture a scenario of an on-time DoW, with the fleet attempting to interdict the US at the Philippines. Is there something implausible in this scenario?

CalBear said:

Also, any attack into the East Indies was bound to involve the USN, the ABDA squadron operated as a unified force & unlike the U-boat campaign, the Japanese would be the clear aggressor. (The Ruben James incident was seen by some as a "If we weren't out there screwing around, this wouldn't have happened in the first place".)

However, had the Japanese managed to avoid any American losses in their offensive, it is hard to see how the U.S. could go to war. The paranoia the Japanese would generate would result in the U.S. building up Hawaii, Guam, Midway, the Philippines, & Wake (and possibily Samoa) into hedgehogs, but actually attacking first is hard to imagine.

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I'm getting mixed messages here. As I understand it, you're saying that Bill's first scenario is unlikely, but that if Japan did in fact manage to not touch any Americans, there wouldn't be a cassus belli.

Supposing that Japan didn't declare war on the US, and did not attack any American bases (or protectorates, ie the Philippines), is that at all possible? If a clearly superior Japanese taskforce sorties against the Allies, and American elements are in the area, how could such an avoidance plan be carried out?

Brasidas said:

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I'm getting mixed messages here. As I understand it, you're saying that Bill's first scenario is unlikely, but that if Japan did in fact manage to not touch any Americans, there wouldn't be a cassus belli.

Supposing that Japan didn't declare war on the US, and did not attack any American bases (or protectorates, ie the Philippines), is that at all possible? If a clearly superior Japanese taskforce sorties against the Allies, and American elements are in the area, how could such an avoidance plan be carried out?

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I'm fairly sure that they can't. That is the problem with the scenario.

Getting to where the Japanese wanted to go and avoiding conflict with the USN is damned near impossible. It would also be tactically insane to leave the United States, a country that DOES bear you ill will, astride your lines of communication.

HJ Tulp said:

There is no way that the Dutch government would give in to the Japanese demands. Not only did they know that the entry of the US would be their only chance against the Germans and not only did they know that a Japanese victory over China would mean alot of future problems but there was more.

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The Dutch Government probably would not give in as you say but the question is what the DEI would do. They're economically desperate, they have oil but they can't get it to a market. I don't have source data to hand; its elsewhere and filed away, but going from memory, DEI was running hand-to-mouth ever since the homeland fell. If the Japanese were light-footed and economically deft, they could set up a system by which they were operating through intermediaries to get what they wanted. It's assumed here that they don't want to puppetize DEI because doing do would attract too much American attention. The same here really applies to Australia and possibly even Malaya/India. There's no way in hell the UK will officially approve trading with the Japanese in strategic materials but given the screamingly bad situation that existed in late 1941 - remember its by no means clear that Russia will survive far into 1942 - they might well decice that a Nelsonian blind eye to what the Dominions are up to might serve them better than more upright behavior.

What this question is really asking I think is, is there a way Japan could get its way in the Far East without going to war with America. Let's suppose the Japanese Army gets politically discredited after Khalkin Gol and the Navy gets likewise after the Pearl Harbor plan collapses. So, there's room for a third force to gain weight. I suggest the Japanese Internal Revenue Service. They're forgotten about because they didn't have tanks and ships but they report directly to the Emperor, they were incorruptible and everybody, including the Army and Navy were scared of them. Suppose they come to the fore, exploit the power of the purse-strings and suggest that rather than confront the Americans directly, they do so indirectly. Use fronts, mock companies, re-labelled shipping, third parties, all the games every country subject to sanctions takes for granted. If necessary, lay the fleet up (it isn't doing much any way) conserve oil every way possible. Basically keep the country going by hook or by crook until American attention goes elsewhere - which it will, eventually. Roosevelt's desire to go to war with Germany will see to that.

Of course, when that happens, a really, really cheeky Japanese Government might do the ultimate bit of political chicanery. Declare war on Germany.

Brasidas said:

There's a third possibility in here, as I see it. A general attack, including the Philippines, without a strike on Pearl Harbor.

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I excluded this because Dr STrangelove's original hypothesis was that Japan doesn't commit any direct attack on the US so that eliminated an attack on the Philippines.

I'm getting mixed messages here. As I understand it, you're saying that Bill's first scenario is unlikely, but that if Japan did in fact manage to not touch any Americans, there wouldn't be a cassus belli.

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I think everybody is agreed on that; its most unlikely that the Philippines would be by-passed because it leaves the Americans with their hands wrapped firmly around Japan's throat. If, however, the Japanese did go that way, its hard to see the US having a decent causus belli. Only, that's not something the Japanese will be sure of.

Supposing that Japan didn't declare war on the US, and did not attack any American bases (or protectorates, ie the Philippines), is that at all possible? If a clearly superior Japanese taskforce sorties against the Allies, and American elements are in the area, how could such an avoidance plan be carried out?

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Very good question. The chance of a mistake are horrendously high. That's why I think if the Japanese decide not to hit the USA (and thus the Philippines, the whole Strike-South concept falls). Japan either folds or has to think of something pretty unprecedented.

Bill Garvin said:

That's why I think if the Japanese decide not to hit the USA (and thus the Philippines, the whole Strike-South concept falls). Japan either folds or has to think of something pretty unprecedented.

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Where else can they strike?

Geordie87 said:

Where else can they strike?

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Nowhere, all the potential conquest routes are blocked off. That's why I said they'd have to come up with something unprecedented. There is no military solution to this problem; they would have to come up with a non-military one. The big question is, do the Japanese have the ability to think that far outside the box?

Bill Garvin said:

Nowhere, all the potential conquest routes are blocked off.

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So, Japan appears to have two options:

1. Sit tight. Watch the Chinese front grind to a halt for want of oil etc. Hope that soon NEI will be forced into selling barrels under the counter. Also hope that these barrels will be sufficient

2. Think the unthinkable. Attack the US. It will almost certainly end in defeat. Then again, with a few lucky breaks, maybe...

Geordie87 said:

So, Japan appears to have two options:

1. Sit tight. Watch the Chinese front grind to a halt for want of oil etc. Hope that soon NEI will be forced into selling barrels under the counter. Also hope that these barrels will be sufficient

2. Think the unthinkable. Attack the US. It will almost certainly end in defeat. Then again, with a few lucky breaks, maybe...

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Exactly; but the starting premise was that (2) is ruled out. So that leaves (1).

Bill Garvin said:

Exactly; but the starting premise was that (2) is ruled out. So that leaves (1).

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So, to answer the question in the original post:

try and crack down, as much as is possible, on potential embargo breaking sales of oil from NEI.

I know, not particularly exciting, but that wasn't specified

Bill Garvin said:

The Dutch Government probably would not give in as you say but the question is what the DEI would do. They're economically desperate, they have oil but they can't get it to a market. I don't have source data to hand; its elsewhere and filed away, but going from memory, DEI was running hand-to-mouth ever since the homeland fell. If the Japanese were light-footed and economically deft, they could set up a system by which they were operating through intermediaries to get what they wanted. It's assumed here that they don't want to puppetize DEI because doing do would attract too much American attention. The same here really applies to Australia and possibly even Malaya/India. There's no way in hell the UK will officially approve trading with the Japanese in strategic materials but given the screamingly bad situation that existed in late 1941 - remember its by no means clear that Russia will survive far into 1942 - they might well decice that a Nelsonian blind eye to what the Dominions are up to might serve them better than more upright behavior.

.

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That doesn't make sense, if anything, the riches of the DEI were making a profit for the Dutch government. There were alot of concerns that the country would become impoverished after the Indonesian independence. Sure the loss of the Motherland made life alot harder but that was more in terms of industrial base and manpower. Not in financial way. Atleast not more then mobilisation does to any country.

Geordie87 said:

So, Japan appears to have two options:

1. Sit tight. Watch the Chinese front grind to a halt for want of oil etc. Hope that soon NEI will be forced into selling barrels under the counter. Also hope that these barrels will be sufficient

2. Think the unthinkable. Attack the US. It will almost certainly end in defeat. Then again, with a few lucky breaks, maybe...

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I think new research is showing that the Japanese didn't worry only about its access to oil and raw materials - and markets - but that the US effectively cut it off from sizeable assets that the Japanese had in the US and it was both running out of money and fuel.

While we are not discussing point #2, I'm getting to the opinion that the Pacific War was more of a 'near run thing' than we imagine or recognize.

Well, we might have stayed nuetral as long as they didn't attack any US territories. NATO didn't exist yet, and the US wouldn't have had to assist them. However, numerous x-factors, such as a similar attack on Samoa, or Wendel Wilkie getting elected, mihgt have led to a declaration of war on Japan. Or, if the Germans had bombed New York City in a massive U-boat attack, World War II might have continued on as we knew it.

David S Poepoe said:

While we are not discussing point #2, I'm getting to the opinion that the Pacific War was more of a 'near run thing' than we imagine or recognize.

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Near run? What kind?